150 to 1 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter nmp2327
- Start date
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
Think we'll do better away as we did in Robins' first spell. Teams will come and shut up shop at the Ricoh.
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Liquid Gold
Well-Known Member
If they shut up shop though we're less likely to concede, more draws but still less likely to lose the game
Brylowes
Well-Known Member
Have you forgotten who you support.
covcity4life
Well-Known Member
if teams come to park bus then we have a chance i guess as we wont face too many attacks. a tempting bet
The Reverend Skyblue
Well-Known Member
I only ever bet once a year on the Grand National but a £20 bet on this is very tempting
MatthewWallis
Well-Known Member
I've got £10 on this and £5 on us to win the league. Will be a nice £1500 to use for the promotion party
6 Generations
Well-Known Member
The bet is tempting and I will probably invest £5.
But I might also back Notts County to win in the first home game.
As a previous poster stated.
'You do remember who you support?'
hill83
Well-Known Member
It's one step beyond.
covcity4life
Well-Known Member
Weekly free bet?!
Sky Blue Harry H
Well-Known Member
Yep - he nicks it out of his gran's purse (no offence!)
MatthewWallis
Well-Known Member
If it's SkyBet you get a £5 free bet each week for betting £25
Sky_Blue_Daz
Well-Known Member
Knowing my luck if I backed that they would lose on the last home game of the season
skybluesam66
Well-Known Member
at that point you could hedge your bets with a big bet on the opposition
skybluedan
Well-Known Member
What are the odds on city winning the league?
Sky_Blue_Daz
Well-Known Member
I seen them at 2/1 on oddschecker
skybluedan
Well-Known Member
Might go a bit big with it actually especially at 8 , got to be worth it
Sky_Blue_Daz
Well-Known Member
I'm doing an accumulator will add city into it
Governmac
Well-Known Member
9/1 on Bet365
mrtrench
Well-Known Member
Someone might want to check my calculations as I'm away on hols and used an online calculator. 150/1 over 24 games means the probability of losing any one game on average is 19%, or roughly 4/1 on. Do you really believe it is that unlikely? You may be better off doing an accumulator over the season, betting each time that we don't lose and then increasing the stake by the amount you win each time.
mrtrench
Well-Known Member
Oh and one more thought, remember that the bookies odds are not only based on their views but also driven by how many people bet on that result. As city will have more supporters than any other side in league 2 there is a bias to drive odds on city down. So generally, betting on city will not be value for money.
covcity4life
Well-Known Member
ahhhhhhh
not really free i guess, more of a bonus
i wouldnt want to be 25 a week, getting into troubling territory there
5 max!
CJ_covblaze
Well-Known Member
It's not bad if he wins or gets close to breaking even. Plus even if he lost it all 25 quid isn't too bad for a few hours entertainment is it?
MatthewWallis
Well-Known Member
If you lost it all every week then it's terrible. You might as well go outside and chuck £25 down the drain each week
Adge
Well-Known Member
So you bet at least £100 a month?
mrtrench
Well-Known Member
When faced with a book on an event where one of the options must happen, it's good to calculate the take on the book (the bookie's profit margin). This tells you on average how much you lose on each bet. To do so, work out the implied probability on each of the odds and sum them. It will come to more than 1, if it sums to say 1.1 it means that the take is 10%. You calculate the probability by dividing 1 by the odds +1: so 4/1 has a probability of 1/5=0.2
In my experience, on liquid markets, betfair has the tightest book and can sometimes sum to less than 1, meaning that you could make A profit betting on all options. But you can also place a bet slightly higher than is available and someone takes your bet as a lay.
Even with a free 5 pounds, if you are betting 100 a month the bookie almost certainly has a large take and it's worth researching. If you find the take is 10% then you will on average lose 10 per month.
In my experience, on liquid markets, betfair has the tightest book and can sometimes sum to less than 1, meaning that you could make A profit betting on all options. But you can also place a bet slightly higher than is available and someone takes your bet as a lay.
Even with a free 5 pounds, if you are betting 100 a month the bookie almost certainly has a large take and it's worth researching. If you find the take is 10% then you will on average lose 10 per month.
MatthewWallis
Well-Known Member
I don't, but that's the offer. It used to be bet £5 and get £5 free then they changed it to £25 and there was no way I was gonna spend that each week
I've done a bit of 'arbing'. Those bets are out there, and there is software that will point you in the direction of these 'no lose' bets. In theory, with enough capital, you could make a fortune, the problem is the bookies will eventually spot it and ban you or place restrictions on your account. Short term you can make a few quid though.
mrtrench
Well-Known Member
Betfair is the place, won't get banned there. I did it for a couple of years and built 20 into 2,000. Not a fortune and when I worked out gain per hour I worked at it I stopped. Am considering going back this year just to lay out opponents winning each home game, whilst skipping the ones I don't fancy. Would get much better than 150/1 if it works. Before I was betting and laying all games in my chosen markets and taking the spread.
mrtrench
Well-Known Member
To work out the take? Very possible, just create a spreadsheet and cut and paste the odds.
