points for promotion (2 Viewers)

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skybluesam66

Well-Known Member
Going back over the last 10 years

86 points guarantees promotion from this league (usually 80 is enough)

71 guarantees the play offs

so from 36 games
67 points for automatic (1.86 points per game) -that is carrying on our form to date over the whole season
52 points for play offs (1.44 points per game) - that is mid table form, and we should be good enough for that (although the Mowbray season reminds me to take nothing for granted)

So its going to be a long season, and we need to get as many wins on the board early on, to make it all look a bit simpler as 2 or 3 defeats, and those numbers then begin to look a lot harder
 
Otis

Otis

Well-Known Member
skybluesam66 said:
Going back over the last 10 years

86 points guarantees promotion from this league (usually 80 is enough)

71 guarantees the play offs

so from 36 games
67 points for automatic (1.86 points per game) -that is carrying on our form to date over the whole season
52 points for play offs (1.44 points per game) - that is mid table form, and we should be good enough for that (although the Mowbray season reminds me to take nothing for granted)

So its going to be a long season, and we need to get as many wins on the board early on, to make it all look a bit simpler as 2 or 3 defeats, and those numbers then begin to look a lot harder
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22 wins from 36 games?

Piece of piss.
 
S

skybluesam66

Well-Known Member
we did have that graph of our progress in the Mowbray season (albeit it was soon shelved in the new year)
Would I be jinxing our current form suggesting that makes a comeback
 
vow

vow

Well-Known Member
Isn't it 15 points every 10 games for promotion? or it could be play offs?

It's the one thing I remember Cookie saying when he was here.
 
Liquid Gold

Liquid Gold

Well-Known Member
skybluesam66 said:
we did have that graph of our progress in the Mowbray season (albeit it was soon shelved in the new year)
Would I be jinxing our current form suggesting that makes a comeback
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Yeah who used to make that. I'd like it back back to track how we're doing. I remember us being so far ahead of the line at one point that I thought "even Coventry City cant mess this up". What a twat.
 
Philosorapter

Philosorapter

Well-Known Member
I hold my hand up..

I had some serious health problems which floored me totally for twelve months. That was the main reason why I stopped it. One cardiac arrest later though I'm back fighting fit.

It was actually some quite interesting shit to do. I wasn't expecting such an even tally of results.
 
Ranjit Bhurpa

Ranjit Bhurpa

Well-Known Member
Reckon we need to target 2 pts a game throughout the season to be certain. Currently just a gnats widger off this. Aim high!
 
robbiekeane

robbiekeane

Well-Known Member
Philosorapter said:
I hold my hand up..

I had some serious health problems which floored me totally for twelve months. That was the main reason why I stopped it. One cardiac arrest later though I'm back fighting fit.

It was actually some quite interesting shit to do. I wasn't expecting such an even tally of results.
Click to expand...
Hope you're okay mate.
 
Sky Blue Harry H

Sky Blue Harry H

Well-Known Member
Philosorapter said:
I hold my hand up..

I had some serious health problems which floored me totally for twelve months. That was the main reason why I stopped it. One cardiac arrest later though I'm back fighting fit.

It was actually some quite interesting shit to do. I wasn't expecting such an even tally of results.
Click to expand...

The moral of the story is - don't start trying to work out what our football team is going to do - it is bad for your health (seriously, glad you are fit and well - just don't tempt fate!)
 
ccfcricoh

ccfcricoh

Well-Known Member
upload_2017-9-28_8-50-48.png

I've been playing with a graph at work (busy day!) Looked at last 10 seasons and points needed and then tracking ours against it...

I've rolled it out to end of season based on our current average points per game...

After 10 games even though we're not in top 3 we're on form for automatics...

p.s. not meaning to take any limelight if someone else normally does this, just thought i'd share what i had!
 
Briles

Briles

Well-Known Member
ccfcricoh said:
View attachment 8087

I've been playing with a graph at work (busy day!) Looked at last 10 seasons and points needed and then tracking ours against it...

I've rolled it out to end of season based on our current average points per game...

After 10 games even though we're not in top 3 we're on form for automatics...

p.s. not meaning to take any limelight if someone else normally does this, just thought i'd share what i had!
Click to expand...


Loving your work sir!!
 
S

skybluesam66

Well-Known Member
a couple of things to add
Accrington stanley in one of the seasons didn't get automatic with 85 points ( but 86+ has guaranteed automatic over that period)
No team with 71 points+ has failed to get to the play offs

we are currently in line to get 87.4 based on current rate

24 points from the next 13 games would see us still on target at half way

so that is 7 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats needs to be the minimum we achieve over that time
 
M

Monty

Well-Known Member
Surely it is the old adage of win your home games and draw your away games to win the league which put simply is 20 points every 10 games so we are just slightly behind what's needed
 
clint van damme

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
Monty said:
Surely it is the old adage of win your home games and draw your away games to win the league which put simply is 20 points every 10 games so we are just slightly behind what's needed
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but also slightly ahead of where Doncaster were at this point last season and they managed to grab 3rd spot.
 
Otis

Otis

Well-Known Member
Yeah. Would much prefer a lot more points on the board now and a bit of a slip up later on.

Still having nightmares about our letting an 11 point gap slip bugger us up a couple of seasons back.

Want to be about 15 points clear so we can lose 4 in a row and still be clear at the top.
 
ccfcricoh

ccfcricoh

Well-Known Member
just because i'm bored, and in a moment of blind optimism I've added Champion points average and done it just up to current game week
upload_2017-9-28_17-23-44.png

not that any of this means anything obviously!!!
 
Otis

Otis

Well-Known Member
steveo1987 said:
1 Portsmouth (C, P) 46 26 9 11 79 40 +39 87

For a little bit of perspective Portsmouth went up as champions and lost 11 games
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Yeah. It's what I said a few days back. Our target really needs to be to avoid anything more than 12 defeats.

We really shouldn't have 3 already, what with the errors etc.
 
Otis

Otis

Well-Known Member
Otis said:
Yeah. It's what I said a few days back. Our target really needs to be to avoid anything more than 12 defeats.

We really shouldn't have 3 already, what with the errors etc.
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Well it's now 5 defeats. We have played 14 matches. It is now looking like such a more monumental task.

The benchmark appears to be to lose no more than around 12 games to get promoted. Last season the 3 top sides all lost 11 games come the end of the season

We have lost nearly half of that with still 32 games to go. It's rather worrying.

We need to buck this trend or we are going nowhere. We have now lost more games than any other team in the top 9.

We need an unbeaten run and a very good unbeaten run and we need it fast. At the moment we are losing at an average of more than 1 in every 3.
 
steve82

steve82

Well-Known Member
Auto's are out the question to me, there are other sides in the division stronger.

We're more realistically a play off hopeful.

We're still only 6 points off the autos but play offs are more realistic
 
Otis

Otis

Well-Known Member
steve82 said:
Auto's are out the question to me, there are other sides in the division stronger.

We're more realistically a play off hopeful.

We're still only 6 points off the autos but play offs are more realistic
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Trouble is playoffs can be a lottery. Dodgy pen, one off day, own goal, keeper blunder and it's all over.

I think it's this season or bust, so play-offs would be a bit of a lottery and a big worry.
 
clint van damme

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
Otis said:
Trouble is playoffs can be a lottery. Dodgy pen, one off day, own goal, keeper blunder and it's all over.

I think it's this season or bust, so play-offs would be a bit of a lottery and a big worry.
Click to expand...

I'd snap you r hand off to get into the play offs at the moment. It's going to take a big turn around to trouble the automatics based on the last couple of weeks.
 
no_loyalty

no_loyalty

Well-Known Member
steveo1987 said:
1 Portsmouth (C, P) 46 26 9 11 79 40 +39 87

For a little bit of perspective Portsmouth went up as champions and lost 11 games
Click to expand...

Exeter finished 5th last season on 71 points and they suffered 17 defeats, Blackpool who occupied the last playoff spot finished on 70 points with 12 defeats.

I'm very optimistic that we will at least reach the playoffs, anything less would be a disaster
 
chiefdave

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
We will need in the region of 65-70 goals for promotion. Even if we had 2 forwards who could get 20 each where are the rest coming from?

If you take the career average of our 4 most prolific forwards (McNulty, Beavon, Nazon and Biamou) and the same for midfield (Jones, Doyle, Vincentti and Kelly) you get 69. But you can't play all 8 of them at the same time and several of them are well past their peak.
 
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