The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (12 Viewers)

[clint van damme]

Boost for UK as leak reveals Germany is keen to cut a Brexit deal and Hungary warns EU not to take a hard line on talks

I know it's a shit paper but worth a read. It's common sense stuff at least.

worrying bit at the end though, criticising Corbyn for refusing to consider a no deal scenario.
There seems to be quite a lot of consensus from all ends of the political spectrum that no deal will hurt us badly. I think it's vital to hang on in there and get a deal done.

 

---

[Ashdown]

worrying bit at the end though, criticising Corbyn for refusing to consider a no deal scenario.
There seems to be quite a lot of consensus from all ends of the political spectrum that no deal will hurt us badly. I think it's vital to hang on in there and get a deal done.

A deal will be done we've got 18 months yet !

 

[Kingokings204]

worrying bit at the end though, criticising Corbyn for refusing to consider a no deal scenario.
There seems to be quite a lot of consensus from all ends of the political spectrum that no deal will hurt us badly. I think it's vital to hang on in there and get a deal done.

Fair enough but let me ask you a simple question ... is no deal better than a bad deal?

 

[Kingokings204]

A deal will be done we've got 18 months yet !

Yeah I think we will get a good deal myself. All posturing and delay to get closer to the deadline. Puts the squeeze on and then a deal gets reached at the 11th hour.

 

[clint van damme]

Fair enough but let me ask you a simple question ... is no deal better than a bad deal?

it depends how bad the bad deal is!! But I don't think we will need to sign up to a bad deal as long as we don't hamstring ourselves with an unachievable deadline.
And as long as there's no truth in this, it's a blog and I have no idea of it's reliability:

How Theresa May is being ‘shepherded’ to a hard Brexit by a multibillionaire Dubai-based New Zealand fund manager

 

[skybluetony176]

Fair enough but let me ask you a simple question ... is no deal better than a bad deal?

I know you didn’t ask me but I think people need to wake up to the fact that no deal means defaulting back to WTO rules and that is the worst deal. WTO rules are a default position, whatever deal we get it’s going to be no worse than no deal. So when people state that no deal is better than a bad deal they’re talking bollocks. Any deal is going to be better than WTO rules and therefore better than no deal. It’s a deflection from admitting that when it comes to trade with the EU we’re going to be on worse terms than being a member of the EU. Which was always going to be the case.

 

[Kingokings204]

it depends how bad the bad deal is!! But I don't think we will need to sign up to a bad deal as long as we don't hamstring ourselves with an unachievable deadline.
And as long as there's no truth in this, it's a blog and I have no idea of it's reliability:

How Theresa May is being ‘shepherded’ to a hard Brexit by a multibillionaire Dubai-based New Zealand fund manager

Wouldn't pay too much attention to that article. Seems a lot of coincidental stuff to me. Not saying it's wrong but clearly adding 2 and 2 and getting 5. The amount we have given already suggests we want the eu to be our partners still.

I agree btw I don't think we will sign a bad deal.

 

[Kingokings204]

I know you didn’t ask me but I think people need to wake up to the fact that no deal means defaulting back to WTO rules and that is the worst deal. WTO rules are a default position, whatever deal we get it’s going to be no worse than no deal. So when people state that no deal is better than a bad deal they’re talking bollocks. Any deal is going to be better than WTO rules and therefore better than no deal. It’s a deflection from admitting that when it comes to trade with the EU we’re going to be on worse terms than being a member of the EU. Which was always going to be the case.

That's fine I welcome the input although saying the worst deal is no deal is clearly wrong. No deal isn't great I know but it's got to be better than a bad deal. If you firmly believe that then you must be hoping for a good deal as a no deal scenario is the worst case for the EU as well yeah?

 

[skybluetony176]

That's fine I welcome the input although saying the worst deal is no deal is clearly wrong. No deal isn't great I know but it's got to be better than a bad deal. If you firmly believe that then you must be hoping for a good deal as a no deal scenario is the worst case for the EU as well yeah?

Problem is how you measure a good deal or a bad deal. Is a bad deal anything worse than the trading terms we currently have as a member of the EU? Is a good deal anything better than WTO? Where’s the middle. What would constitute a bad deal for the EU exactly?

 

[clint van damme]

Problem is how you measure a good deal or a bad deal. Is a bad deal anything worse than the trading terms we currently have as a member of the EU? Is a good deal anything better than WTO? Where’s the middle. What would constitute a bad deal for the EU exactly?

I think a lot of people are looking at the final settlement figure when talking about a good or bad deal when in the grand scheme of things that is actually quite a trivial consideration,

 

[Kingokings204]

Problem is how you measure a good deal or a bad deal. Is a bad deal anything worse than the trading terms we currently have as a member of the EU? Is a good deal anything better than WTO? Where’s the middle. What would constitute a bad deal for the EU exactly?

Well I agree everyone will have their own interpretation on a good and bad deal.

Very simple question your last one. No deal is a bad deal for the EU. Quite often overlooked.

 

[Kingokings204]

I think a lot of people are looking at the final settlement figure when talking about a good or bad deal when in the grand scheme of things that is actually quite a trivial consideration,

I see what you're saying but whether it's 20b or 90 billion isn't that trivial as it's such a different amount and we've heard both. in fact I would argue every billion is a big deal. Especially if you ask the tories and how much the DUP cost them.

 

[martcov]

I see what you're saying but whether it's 20b or 90 billion isn't that trivial as it's such a different amount and we've heard both. in fact I would argue every billion is a big deal. Especially if you ask the tories and how much the DUP cost them.

It is trivial compared with our GDP for years to come. Or our exports to the EU in the future. Far more important is the final deal on leaving.

 

[martcov]

Boost for UK as leak reveals Germany is keen to cut a Brexit deal and Hungary warns EU not to take a hard line on talks

I know it's a shit paper but worth a read. It's common sense stuff at least.

Yes it is a shit paper. It says leaked documents show that the EU will have to give us a good trade deal, but later it won’t have to give us a good deal because of Corbyn‘s stance. Which is it? And the EU has not said they want to give us a bad deal anyway. We won’t get such a good deal as countries in the EU though. In addition Juncker has said he doesn’t want revenge and doesn’t hate Britain. They have said we should deal with 3 most important things before we go further. So, the Sun is a very very shit paper.

 

[skybluetony176]

I think a lot of people are looking at the final settlement figure when talking about a good or bad deal when in the grand scheme of things that is actually quite a trivial consideration,

I think you’re quite possibly right. People do seem to be fixated on it as if that’s the be all and end all of brexit. Like you say, it’s trivial compared to things like trade, security etc. The so call divorce settlement isn’t going to be the legacy of brexit, it’s everything else and how that shapes the country moving forward.

 

[skybluetony176]

Well I agree everyone will have their own interpretation on a good and bad deal.

Very simple question your last one. No deal is a bad deal for the EU. Quite often overlooked.

No deal is the worst deal for everyone, there’s no doubting that. Which only highlights the stupidity of the saying that some politicians and political commentators keep promoting in that no deal is better than a bad deal. In terms of trade alone it’s a myth that gets wiped out, before you even start talking about security and everything else. No deal is the worst deal, anything else is better.

 

[NorthernWisdom]

I know you didn’t ask me but I think people need to wake up to the fact that no deal means defaulting back to WTO rules and that is the worst deal. WTO rules are a default position, whatever deal we get it’s going to be no worse than no deal. So when people state that no deal is better than a bad deal they’re talking bollocks. Any deal is going to be better than WTO rules and therefore better than no deal. It’s a deflection from admitting that when it comes to trade with the EU we’re going to be on worse terms than being a member of the EU. Which was always going to be the case.

Hmmmmm, but the principle of signing up to the right deal rather than any deal should remain.

It's why I can't understand the haste, they should agree to extend talks as long as it takes!

 

[Astute]

No deal is the worst deal for everyone, there’s no doubting that. Which only highlights the stupidity of the saying that some politicians and political commentators keep promoting in that no deal is better than a bad deal. In terms of trade alone it’s a myth that gets wiped out, before you even start talking about security and everything else. No deal is the worst deal, anything else is better.

You tell me what the bad deal is and I will tell you if no deal is better.

We have to deal with Barnier. He wants to take over from Juncker. Juncker was a PM. Barnier has never been a PM. So he wants to stay in the limelight for as long as he can and show he is strong. He lost against Juncker first time.

He is another one who will put himself before what is best for the people of the EU. And he is the one controlling the negotiations. He needs to know that he hasn't got us over a barrel. If it all goes wrong it will be bad for him.

WTO rules are 10% on cars. 2% on components. That is a no deal. The other countries don't want a no deal. A no deal is sticking the middle finger up at them and them doing the same to us.

A deal is much more complex than sorting out how much money they want from us, where people live that have emigrated, what happens with Ireland and if tariffs are imposed. That is just the tip of the iceberg.

 

[clint van damme]

You tell me what the bad deal is and I will tell you if no deal is better.

We have to deal with Barnier. He wants to take over from Juncker. Juncker was a PM. Barnier has never been a PM. So he wants to stay in the limelight for as long as he can and show he is strong. He lost against Juncker first time.

He is another one who will put himself before what is best for the people of the EU. And he is the one controlling the negotiations. He needs to know that he hasn't got us over a barrel. If it all goes wrong it will be bad for him.

WTO rules are 10% on cars. 2% on components. That is a no deal. The other countries don't want a no deal. A no deal is sticking the middle finger up at them and them doing the same to us.

A deal is much more complex than sorting out how much money they want from us, where people live that have emigrated, what happens with Ireland and if tariffs are imposed. That is just the tip of the iceberg.

Agree with your last sentence I don't think anyone realised the scope of this thing which is why we need to take as long as it takes rather that committing ourselves to unrealistic deadlines.

 

[Astute]

Yes it is a shit paper. It says leaked documents show that the EU will have to give us a good trade deal, but later it won’t have to give us a good deal because of Corbyn‘s stance. Which is it? And the EU has not said they want to give us a bad deal anyway. We won’t get such a good deal as countries in the EU though. In addition Juncker has said he doesn’t want revenge and doesn’t hate Britain. They have said we should deal with 3 most important things before we go further. So, the Sun is a very very shit paper.

Juncker said we will pay for leaving the EU.

It is all about the money. The three things is a quote to make it look differently. But they won't negotiate the other two until an agreement on the money is made. And it isn't an agreement on how much. It is an agreement on what we will pay for. As in will we still pay towards nearly 240 billions of loans agreed but not all of it has been given out yet. But not how much of it we will have to pay. That will come later.

We don't even know what % they would want us to pay of any liabilities or future liabilities. Yes. Future liabilities. Further than was agreed by anyone. The total all in is up to 948 billions. Get your head around that number. Pensions for the EU gravy train are 63.8 billion.

 

[Astute]

Agree with your last sentence I don't think anyone realised the scope of this thing which is why we need to take as long as it takes rather that committing ourselves to unrealistic deadlines.

Which is why I disagreed with those having a go at May for wanting a 2 year extension. I would say 2 years minimum unless things start moving and the majority do want to make a deal for what is best for the people of the EU.

 

[Sick Boy]

Which is why I disagreed with those having a go at May for wanting a 2 year extension. I would say 2 years minimum unless things start moving and the majority do want to make a deal for what is best for the people of the EU.

It's going to take at least a decade IMO.

 

[NorthernWisdom]

I would say 2 years minimum

Exactly.

(Bugger me, I'm agreeing with you. Must be the sympathy vote )

 

[Ashdown]

Low pay 'endemic' as workers struggle to progress, says study

I wonder why this is ??! It wouldn't be that companies can call on a glut of low skilled foreign labour could it ? You know people who live 10 up in a terrace house for a couple of years, send a great chunk of the money they earn back to their country of origin and then ship out back there themselves to be replaced by others. In the meantime your UK born and residing worker cannot now live on these appalling wages as a consequence.

 

[NorthernWisdom]

I wonder why this is ??!

Deregulation of Labour Markets, the free market desire for profit and shareholder dividend, the cultural shift from a job for life.. you name it.

 

[skybluetony176]

Hmmmmm, but the principle of signing up to the right deal rather than any deal should remain.

It's why I can't understand the haste, they should agree to extend talks as long as it takes!

It should. But any talks of extending negotiations seems to get portrayed as remain by many. I’m all for extending the talks however those involved don’t seem keen meaning if we leave before anything is agreed we revert to WTO rules and that’s a catastrophe. Leaving on anything other than that will be a better deal.

 

[skybluetony176]

You tell me what the bad deal is and I will tell you if no deal is better.

We have to deal with Barnier. He wants to take over from Juncker. Juncker was a PM. Barnier has never been a PM. So he wants to stay in the limelight for as long as he can and show he is strong. He lost against Juncker first time.

He is another one who will put himself before what is best for the people of the EU. And he is the one controlling the negotiations. He needs to know that he hasn't got us over a barrel. If it all goes wrong it will be bad for him.

WTO rules are 10% on cars. 2% on components. That is a no deal. The other countries don't want a no deal. A no deal is sticking the middle finger up at them and them doing the same to us.

A deal is much more complex than sorting out how much money they want from us, where people live that have emigrated, what happens with Ireland and if tariffs are imposed. That is just the tip of the iceberg.

A bad deal is the worst possible deal and the worst possible deal is WTO rules. It can’t possibly be any worse than that by international law unless we find ourselves under some sort of trade embargo because we’re seen as some sort of rogue state like Iran, North Korea, Syria etc.

Any deal is better than defaulting to WTO rules. That is the worse deal. Are you really not getting that?

 

[Houdi]

I know you didn’t ask me but I think people need to wake up to the fact that no deal means defaulting back to WTO rules and that is the worst deal. WTO rules are a default position, whatever deal we get it’s going to be no worse than no deal. So when people state that no deal is better than a bad deal they’re talking bollocks. Any deal is going to be better than WTO rules and therefore better than no deal. It’s a deflection from admitting that when it comes to trade with the EU we’re going to be on worse terms than being a member of the EU. Which was always going to be the case.

Most of the countries in the world trade with the EU on WTO terms, it doesn't seem to harm them.Currently we don't even have a free trade deal with the EU we pay net 10/11/12 billion a year net for the privilege of running a huge trade deficit with the EU,what is it currently circa 80 billions a year. So our current deal is terrible when you add in the fact we are unable to do free trade deals ourselves. The EU imposes huge trade barriers to say African countries, which impoverishes them and denies UK customers access to cheaper food and products. The EU is a grotesque protectionist racket that has filched around 500 billion from this country going back to the 1970's.I believe we pay more EU budget contributions than all the other countries put together,if you take out Germany. No wonder they are desperate to keep their cash cow. The EU is a failing block and its share of world trade has been falling for years.
We were told by the experts that leaving the ERM in the 1990's would be disastrous- wrong, we were told by experts that not joining the Euro would lead to falling investment higher unemployment blah blah again wrong. Last year Project Fear told us that even a vote to leave would result in an immediate recession ,unemployment increasing by 500-800 thousand, the stockmarket would crash,house prices collapsing, so if anybody still believes the liberal globalist elite more fool them.
Poland Hungary Slovakia and the Czech Republic have basically told the EU to shove their open borders policy, Austria have just elected 2 parties committed to stopping EU interference in border controls. Meanwhile Spain is basically using state thugs to attack its own population,why hasn't the EU implemented Article 10 of the Lisbon Treaty?? Greece is basically bankrupt, Italy has still got an ongoing banking crisis. In Sweden in the last 5 days ,3 bombs have gone off ignored by the MSM, a Syrian migrant repaid the hospitality of a Swedish family by slitting the throat of their 7 year old daughter.
Once we leave others will follow ,and that's what they really fear.

 

[Sick Boy]

Most of the countries in the world trade with the EU on WTO terms, it doesn't seem to harm them.Currently we don't even have a free trade deal with the EU we pay net 10/11/12 billion a year net for the privilege of running a huge trade deficit with the EU,what is it currently circa 80 billions a year. So our current deal is terrible when you add in the fact we are unable to do free trade deals ourselves. The EU imposes huge trade barriers to say African countries, which impoverishes them and denies UK customers access to cheaper food and products. The EU is a grotesque protectionist racket that has filched around 500 billion from this country going back to the 1970's.I believe we pay more EU budget contributions than all the other countries put together,if you take out Germany. No wonder they are desperate to keep their cash cow. The EU is a failing block and its share of world trade has been falling for years.
We were told by the experts that leaving the ERM in the 1990's would be disastrous- wrong, we were told by experts that not joining the Euro would lead to falling investment higher unemployment blah blah again wrong. Last year Project Fear told us that even a vote to leave would result in an immediate recession ,unemployment increasing by 500-800 thousand, the stockmarket would crash,house prices collapsing, so if anybody still believes the liberal globalist elite more fool them.
Poland Hungary Slovakia and the Czech Republic have basically told the EU to shove their open borders policy, Austria have just elected 2 parties committed to stopping EU interference in border controls. Meanwhile Spain is basically using state thugs to attack its own population,why hasn't the EU implemented Article 10 of the Lisbon Treaty?? Greece is basically bankrupt, Italy has still got an ongoing banking crisis. In Sweden in the last 5 days ,3 bombs have gone off ignored by the MSM, a Syrian migrant repaid the hospitality of a Swedish family by slitting the throat of their 7 year old daughter.
Once we leave others will follow ,and that's what they really fear.

Ahhhh yea just like all of those other countries who were supposed to follow Britian's lead out of the EU following on from the vote.

Clearly you are one of those people who have had enough of experts though. What's all this bollocks about the liberal global elite? Perhaps Britian should isolate itself off from the world rather than seeking trade deals?

 

[Astute]

It should. But any talks of extending negotiations seems to get portrayed as remain by many. I’m all for extending the talks however those involved don’t seem keen meaning if we leave before anything is agreed we revert to WTO rules and that’s a catastrophe. Leaving on anything other than that will be a better deal.

But you don't know that.

 

[Astute]

A bad deal is the worst possible deal and the worst possible deal is WTO rules. It can’t possibly be any worse than that by international law unless we find ourselves under some sort of trade embargo because we’re seen as some sort of rogue state like Iran, North Korea, Syria etc.

Any deal is better than defaulting to WTO rules. That is the worse deal. Are you really not getting that?

The trade deal is a small part of the negotiations. You don't seem to understand that.

 

[Astute]

Ahhhh yea just like all of those other countries who were supposed to follow Britian's lead out of the EU following on from the vote.

Which is why some in the EU don't want us to do well after leaving.

 

[Sick Boy]

Which is why some in the EU don't want us to do well after leaving.

Let's see if the UK actually leaves

 

[martcov]

Most of the countries in the world trade with the EU on WTO terms, it doesn't seem to harm them.Currently we don't even have a free trade deal with the EU we pay net 10/11/12 billion a year net for the privilege of running a huge trade deficit with the EU,what is it currently circa 80 billions a year. So our current deal is terrible when you add in the fact we are unable to do free trade deals ourselves. The EU imposes huge trade barriers to say African countries, which impoverishes them and denies UK customers access to cheaper food and products. The EU is a grotesque protectionist racket that has filched around 500 billion from this country going back to the 1970's.I believe we pay more EU budget contributions than all the other countries put together,if you take out Germany. No wonder they are desperate to keep their cash cow. The EU is a failing block and its share of world trade has been falling for years.
We were told by the experts that leaving the ERM in the 1990's would be disastrous- wrong, we were told by experts that not joining the Euro would lead to falling investment higher unemployment blah blah again wrong. Last year Project Fear told us that even a vote to leave would result in an immediate recession ,unemployment increasing by 500-800 thousand, the stockmarket would crash,house prices collapsing, so if anybody still believes the liberal globalist elite more fool them.
Poland Hungary Slovakia and the Czech Republic have basically told the EU to shove their open borders policy, Austria have just elected 2 parties committed to stopping EU interference in border controls. Meanwhile Spain is basically using state thugs to attack its own population,why hasn't the EU implemented Article 10 of the Lisbon Treaty?? Greece is basically bankrupt, Italy has still got an ongoing banking crisis. In Sweden in the last 5 days ,3 bombs have gone off ignored by the MSM, a Syrian migrant repaid the hospitality of a Swedish family by slitting the throat of their 7 year old daughter.
Once we leave others will follow ,and that's what they really fear.

We’ve done well economically during our time in the EU. Ask the leavers how big our economy is.

Germany reckons on paying up to 3bn a year extra as a result of the UK not paying in. Probably less because the EU will reduce the budget. Not much in the real world.

The refugee crisis was not caused by the EU and refugee status is governed by international law not by the EU. Sweden always had a liberal refugee policy- long before the EU.

We have commitments and they have to be paid. Up until now we haven’t offered more than our subs until leaving day. We need to make a list of what we consider our liabilities and then see what else the EU wants. Somewhere between the two is the answer. The sooner this happens the better.

 

[clint van damme]

Most of the countries in the world trade with the EU on WTO terms, it doesn't seem to harm them.Currently we don't even have a free trade deal with the EU we pay net 10/11/12 billion a year net for the privilege of running a huge trade deficit with the EU,what is it currently circa 80 billions a year. So our current deal is terrible when you add in the fact we are unable to do free trade deals ourselves. The EU imposes huge trade barriers to say African countries, which impoverishes them and denies UK customers access to cheaper food and products. The EU is a grotesque protectionist racket that has filched around 500 billion from this country going back to the 1970's.I believe we pay more EU budget contributions than all the other countries put together,if you take out Germany. No wonder they are desperate to keep their cash cow. The EU is a failing block and its share of world trade has been falling for years.
We were told by the experts that leaving the ERM in the 1990's would be disastrous- wrong, we were told by experts that not joining the Euro would lead to falling investment higher unemployment blah blah again wrong. Last year Project Fear told us that even a vote to leave would result in an immediate recession ,unemployment increasing by 500-800 thousand, the stockmarket would crash,house prices collapsing, so if anybody still believes the liberal globalist elite more fool them.
Poland Hungary Slovakia and the Czech Republic have basically told the EU to shove their open borders policy, Austria have just elected 2 parties committed to stopping EU interference in border controls. Meanwhile Spain is basically using state thugs to attack its own population,why hasn't the EU implemented Article 10 of the Lisbon Treaty?? Greece is basically bankrupt, Italy has still got an ongoing banking crisis. In Sweden in the last 5 days ,3 bombs have gone off ignored by the MSM, a Syrian migrant repaid the hospitality of a Swedish family by slitting the throat of their 7 year old daughter.
Once we leave others will follow ,and that's what they really fear.

But are the goods they're trading covered by a TBT agreement? If not I believe getting one agreed can take years and in the event of a no deal that could be the case for British industry.
Of course it would work both ways and harm the EU as which is another reason to make sure we have the right deal in place before leaving.