Relegation thread (14 Viewers)
- Thread starter Otis
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covcity4life
Well-Known Member
you posted this at 5.28am?! must be knackered
oucho
Well-Known Member
I think it could be less than 50 points - mabe even as low as 44-45 based on current form. Still, we're so far behind, even in this scenario we're looking doubling our current points total in less than half of the games that we've already played. Hhhmmmmm....
oucho
Well-Known Member
That doesn't bode well for us playing Bury away in a few weeks....
The Reverend Skyblue
Well-Known Member
If they have appointed Lee Clark they really are in the shit. A dreadful manager full stop
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steve82
Well-Known Member
Most likely be irrelevant by then if we don't get 6 points from our home games v Gillingham and Swindon.
12 points needed from next four, but bury and Shrewsbury won't be easy.
Any news on the game v port vale? That been arranged yet?
oucho
Well-Known Member
Never heard of him. Lee Clark is not much good either; wasn't the latter linked with us once?
SkyBlue_Bear83
Well-Known Member
I'm starting a promotion thread after today
Manchester_sky_blue
Well-Known Member
We are down. There is no getting away from that but at least todays win gives us a chance of making a fight of it. Id sooner head in to league 2 on decent form than just accepting our fate.
Hadji's_Goatee
Well-Known Member
Surving is possible but not probable
st john
Well-Known Member
The last 3 games have proved to me we can win games. We should have taken 9 points from them (effectively 2 own goals, and a 94th minute lapse of concentration before today) OK they were against poor sides but the opposition expects to beat us and have come at us with the expectation of taking 3 points. That will change if we can string a couple of wins together and our confidence improves.
I don't think any team has ever avoided relegation from a position of 11 points from safety in February, so on that stastistic alone it is extremely unlikely. Personally I still think we have a slight chance, something we would be famous for forever.
I don't think any team has ever avoided relegation from a position of 11 points from safety in February, so on that stastistic alone it is extremely unlikely. Personally I still think we have a slight chance, something we would be famous for forever.
oucho
Well-Known Member
Some posters have bandied about the figure of 50 points as the survival target, but in at least one recent season 46 was the number to beat - Bury on 34 points after 33 games are more of less on course for this, so let's call 46 the bare, bare minimum on which we MIGHT survive......
Getting to 46 points means adding a further 21 points to our current 25. To get 21 points in our remaining 14 league games means we need, conveniently, 1.5 points per game to reach this target (which may be insufficient to keep us up). Coincidentally, that would mean we'd need to sustain a run of form now which, taken over the course of 46 games, would leave us with 69 points which last season was our actual points total when we finished 8th (albeit after a real topsy turvey rather than consistent sesaon). However, 14 games is quite a short space of time for an uptick in form - e.g. if we needed 3 points to survive from the last game, you could make the argument that 3 x 46 meant that "surviving means we'd need the same form as if we were to win every game of the season. I digress.
Where can 21 points come from? The answer must be 6 wins and 4 draws with only 4 defeats. I can't see another plausible combination where we win fewer, as it means the number of defeats is just impossibly low. So we need a minimum of 6 wins - probably 7 but let's say 6.
Looking at the fixtures, the next games stand out a mile away. Swindon, Bury, Shrewsbury - all down with us in mire. After that, it starts to look a lot harder with games at Bradford and Southend, both in the play-off mix, admittedly followed by MK Dons and the as-yet-unscheduled Port Vale home game. The rest of the season is taken up with teams still in with a chance of pushing for promotion either automatically or via the play-offs.
Now I know last season was weird in that we went on a great run of form when it mattered least and we beat some good sides - but what I'm worried about is that if we can't pick up a couple of wins out of the next 3, we'll have fallen so far off contention that any "pressure's off" run like last season turns out, well, just like last season when it made no difference to the eventual outcome. The mid-table sides in particular like Wallsall, Charlton and Bristol Rovers may have nothing to play for by the time we play them, but we'd need to win most of these games too.
Whichever way you slice and dice it, we probably need to win half our remaining matches and 2, if not 3, of the next 3 if we're not to be cut adrift when the going gets much tougher from mid-March onwards. Too few of our current line-up were here last season to remember the late rally in form, although it must give us hope.
My head says it's too much of an ask - ask me again after we've won the next 3 on the bounce and I will likely have a very different answer!!
Getting to 46 points means adding a further 21 points to our current 25. To get 21 points in our remaining 14 league games means we need, conveniently, 1.5 points per game to reach this target (which may be insufficient to keep us up). Coincidentally, that would mean we'd need to sustain a run of form now which, taken over the course of 46 games, would leave us with 69 points which last season was our actual points total when we finished 8th (albeit after a real topsy turvey rather than consistent sesaon). However, 14 games is quite a short space of time for an uptick in form - e.g. if we needed 3 points to survive from the last game, you could make the argument that 3 x 46 meant that "surviving means we'd need the same form as if we were to win every game of the season. I digress.
Where can 21 points come from? The answer must be 6 wins and 4 draws with only 4 defeats. I can't see another plausible combination where we win fewer, as it means the number of defeats is just impossibly low. So we need a minimum of 6 wins - probably 7 but let's say 6.
Looking at the fixtures, the next games stand out a mile away. Swindon, Bury, Shrewsbury - all down with us in mire. After that, it starts to look a lot harder with games at Bradford and Southend, both in the play-off mix, admittedly followed by MK Dons and the as-yet-unscheduled Port Vale home game. The rest of the season is taken up with teams still in with a chance of pushing for promotion either automatically or via the play-offs.
Now I know last season was weird in that we went on a great run of form when it mattered least and we beat some good sides - but what I'm worried about is that if we can't pick up a couple of wins out of the next 3, we'll have fallen so far off contention that any "pressure's off" run like last season turns out, well, just like last season when it made no difference to the eventual outcome. The mid-table sides in particular like Wallsall, Charlton and Bristol Rovers may have nothing to play for by the time we play them, but we'd need to win most of these games too.
Whichever way you slice and dice it, we probably need to win half our remaining matches and 2, if not 3, of the next 3 if we're not to be cut adrift when the going gets much tougher from mid-March onwards. Too few of our current line-up were here last season to remember the late rally in form, although it must give us hope.
My head says it's too much of an ask - ask me again after we've won the next 3 on the bounce and I will likely have a very different answer!!
oucho
Well-Known Member
I hope you are right John as we'll need to win the NEXT 3 if we're to have much of a realistic chance.
Do you have a link or source for the stat on the statement "I don't think any team has ever avoided relegation from a position of 11 points from safety in February,"? Curious if you do because I will avidly check it to see if I can give myself some hope from any you have missed!!
Astute
Well-Known Member
I still say that we will be safe. Just keep looking at the team above us. And when we go above them look for the next team to go past.
And one more thing fills me with confidence. I have won every bet I have had on here. And a couple of days ago I had a bet with someone that we will stay up. If Shrewsbury can put wins together why can't we?
And one more thing fills me with confidence. I have won every bet I have had on here. And a couple of days ago I had a bet with someone that we will stay up. If Shrewsbury can put wins together why can't we?
st john
Well-Known Member
Have looked through as many february tables as I can and compared them with final positions, and can't find any team that has done it, also I have been a keen football supporter for over 50 years and can't remember it happening, I used to be good at remembering results and keen on statistics when younger. That doesn't mean it hasn't been done though, so if anyone knows different ....
Yes we will need to take a good points haul from the next 3 games otherwise it is game over, but if we were to do that our confidence would improve no end, and under those circumstances I can genuinely see the possibility of another 4 wins from the remaining games. Bristol R, Charlton, Pererborough, Walsall, Port Vale are all at home and winnable) Would need some draws as you say, but lets see what happens.
Add to that, I expect at least 1 surprise result against a top team
no_loyalty
Well-Known Member
Oxford might rest a few players, they have a massive semi final on the following Wednesday
Captain Dart
Well-Known Member
Just to be pedantic it is not possible to make up points unless we play, but the games in hand statistics may look a little better after Tuesday's matches.
Otis
Well-Known Member
And just to be very pedantic back, these are Saturday's matches when we DO play.
The clue was in the post, 'this weekend.'
oldskyblue58
CCFC Finance Director
Think you have to look at what it takes for others to survive that presently sit just outside the relegation zone. 49 points could be enough. Not sure lower will do it
CCFC 14 games left We need 24 points from here on in out a possible 42 (57%) 8 wins
Port Vale (only in zone on goal diff) 15 games left need 15 points out of a possible 45 (33%) 5 wins
Bury 13 games left Need 15 points out of a possible 39 (38%) 5 wins
Oldham 13 games left Need 14 points out of a possible 39 (36%) 5 wins
Gillingham 14 games left Need 14 points out of 42 (33%) 5 wins
Shrewsbury 13 games left Need 11 points out of 39 (28%) 4 wins
You would think barring a complete collapse that any team on 39 points or above now to have enough form to add an extra 10 points
not to mention the 10 goal swing in goal difference required by CCFC
Draws are not going to be enough. Draw the next game say and then we will need 23 points out of 39 (56% in points) still remains 8 wins required but out of 13 (61% win rate). CCFC have to win the next 3 or 4 to just put pressure on others above us up to and including Shrewsbury in 17th. Not make major in roads or even take 5 points in 3 games and the target becomes 19 points out of 33 ( 6wins and a draw out of 11 games or 64% win rate .............Sheffield united currently have a games win rate of 57%)
The fact that L1 is a poor standard this season I don't think helps us because it means everyone can beat everyone else and the pressure for points remains on most teams
A glimmer of hope. But come what may we need to build momentum in to next season L1 or L2
I can see improved results coming from here till end of season but better than championship winning form that's a different question. Too late.
CCFC 14 games left We need 24 points from here on in out a possible 42 (57%) 8 wins
Port Vale (only in zone on goal diff) 15 games left need 15 points out of a possible 45 (33%) 5 wins
Bury 13 games left Need 15 points out of a possible 39 (38%) 5 wins
Oldham 13 games left Need 14 points out of a possible 39 (36%) 5 wins
Gillingham 14 games left Need 14 points out of 42 (33%) 5 wins
Shrewsbury 13 games left Need 11 points out of 39 (28%) 4 wins
You would think barring a complete collapse that any team on 39 points or above now to have enough form to add an extra 10 points
not to mention the 10 goal swing in goal difference required by CCFC
Draws are not going to be enough. Draw the next game say and then we will need 23 points out of 39 (56% in points) still remains 8 wins required but out of 13 (61% win rate). CCFC have to win the next 3 or 4 to just put pressure on others above us up to and including Shrewsbury in 17th. Not make major in roads or even take 5 points in 3 games and the target becomes 19 points out of 33 ( 6wins and a draw out of 11 games or 64% win rate .............Sheffield united currently have a games win rate of 57%)
The fact that L1 is a poor standard this season I don't think helps us because it means everyone can beat everyone else and the pressure for points remains on most teams
A glimmer of hope. But come what may we need to build momentum in to next season L1 or L2
I can see improved results coming from here till end of season but better than championship winning form that's a different question. Too late.
Captain Dart
Well-Known Member
Grrr.. don't use logic on me. :nailbiting:
Tuesday 21st February 2017
- Charlton19:45Oxford Utd
- Gillingham19:45Wimbledon
- Millwall19:45Chesterfield
- Peterborough19:45Southend
oldskyblue58
CCFC Finance Director
margin for error 14 games left, 49 points needed
8 wins minimum required = 24 points
7 wins plus 3 draws = 24 points can lose 4
6 wins plus 6 draws = 24 points can lose 2
5 wins plus 9 draws = 24 points can lose 0
tough, tough, ask
(If we achieved 8 wins out of 14 you might expect a draw or two as well and possibly safe before the last game ...... )
8 wins minimum required = 24 points
7 wins plus 3 draws = 24 points can lose 4
6 wins plus 6 draws = 24 points can lose 2
5 wins plus 9 draws = 24 points can lose 0
tough, tough, ask
(If we achieved 8 wins out of 14 you might expect a draw or two as well and possibly safe before the last game ...... )
covcity4life
Well-Known Member
swindon is a monumentally big match
Otis
Well-Known Member
The proverbial 6 pointer.
Win that and have other results go our way and we all might just start believing a little bit.
Otis
Well-Known Member
I think we would all take 8 wins and 6 defeats and think that eminently doable.
It could be draws that do us in the end.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Much like in Andy Thorn's relegation season this is a team which specialises in throwing away leads and in being goal-shy. That is a mentality thing as much as it is a quality thing, and unless both of those were to turn on their head in the remaining games, 8 wins is nowhere near doable. We shouldn't have gone down then, and we definitely shouldn't be going down this season, but dreadful management and off-field antics will prove terminal like they did in 2012.
Had the team not blown leads in the final minute 3 times under Slade, we would have another 6 points and the task would look achievable. But we didn't, so it doesn't.
Otis
Well-Known Member
Was talking more in terms of the getting away with losing 6 to be honest, BSB.
Can't see the 7 wins and 4 draws and only 3 defeats scenario at all.
Think we can easily manage 6 defeats though
and that's why I was talking about about the 8 wins. I am talking about that particular combination.The others with so few defeats I just think are impossible.
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Gazolba
Well-Known Member
I cannot foresee 14 games without any draws.Was talking more in terms of the getting away with losing 6 to be honest, BSB.
Can't see the 7 wins and 4 draws and only 3 defeats scenario at all.
Think we can easily manage 6 defeats though
The others with so few defeats I just think are impossible.
We've currently drawn 10 in 32, so drawing about one in three.
So if that continues we can expect to draw 4-5 of the remaining games.
Chesterfield and Rochdale currently have the least draws and even they are drawing around one in five.
skybluesam66
Well-Known Member
we need to win the next 2
then the gap will be 3 or 4 points
then the gap will be 3 or 4 points
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Was talking more in terms of the getting away with losing 6 to be honest, BSB.
Can't see the 7 wins and 4 draws and only 3 defeats scenario at all.
Think we can easily manage 6 defeats though
The others with so few defeats I just think are impossible.
Yeah. Got to give it to anyone still going next season, L2 would be a piss take too far for me. Just look at the teams who have gone up from L1 in recent years-just straightforward good management can see you a long way with an average baseline of quality. Goodness knows how we've managed to come bottom of the pile in such a poor league.