Remaining home games ALL look winnable (1 Viewer)

[CJparker]

Looking at the remaining fixtures, you can start to plot a way out, they are (not in order)

Barnsley
Palace
Birmingham
Doncaster
Millwall
Pompey
Posh

Now the Blues game is an early kickoff and a local derby to boot, the rest of them are all clubs we can realistically beat.

We nearly beat Palace and Posh once this season already, should beat bottom of the table Donny, we beat Millwall at home last season and should have too much for Barnsley and Posh.

The aways look a LOT harder:

Hull
Leicester
Southampton
Cardiff
Bristol City
Watford

Of those, only the last 2 look remotely winnable. That said, we can get anything out of a local Derby, Saints may be promoted by the time we play them (last game), and we got a point at Hull last season as well.


So by my reckoning, we've got a relatively easy run-in, especially given our home form. While I don't think we're certain to survive, we clearly have a good chance now.


The optimism of course evaporates when you look at the thinness of our squad...

 

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[CovLis86]

I see a maximum of 16 points in there for us out of that lot. Is that enough?....

 

[Otis]

Nope. Not nearly enough.

I calculated 15.

 

[Perryccfc]

I only got 14 :-(

 

[skybluegod]

watford we will lose and only see us picking up a point and bristol

 

[CovLis86]

God the points are going down by the hour!
Please note : If we dont win tomorrow, then my total is 3 less already!

 

[canleykid]

I can see 18 max

 

[sw88]

I got 16 too, but ive had to be very optimistic to get there;

Barnsley -3
Palace - 1
Birmingham - 0
Doncaster - 3
Millwall - 3
Pompey - 3
Posh - 3

If it happens, I would be very impressed, but im not convinced we will see it! I hold a slight hope though

 

[ccfcway]

our away form means that we cant get out of this without 7 home wins

we will deffo slip up somewhere

so, in short, its over

 

[Colonel Mustard]

16 points? 18 points? I'll have a pint of that stuff.

The reality is that we average 1.375 points-per-game when we play at home. All things being equal (and they usually are), that would give us 9 - 10 points from the remaining home fixtures.

And that's to say nothing of the disastrous away form, which may set some kind of modern league record.

 

[CovFan]

Wonder what will happen if on the last day of the season it's between us and Portsmouth for the last relegation spot and we've got Southampton away...

 

[Sick Boy]

Wonder what will happen if on the last day of the season it's between us and Portsmouth for the last relegation spot and we've got Southampton away...

I heard there will be roadworks around the ground on that day...

 

[wingy]

I'm having a ticket for that one ,Will southampton be up by then or will Adkins bottle it.

 

[rob9872]

16 points? 18 points? I'll have a pint of that stuff.

The reality is that we average 1.375 points-per-game when we play at home. All things being equal (and they usually are), that would give us 9 - 10 points from the remaining home fixtures.

And that's to say nothing of the disastrous away form, which may set some kind of modern league record.

... in your opinion!

Mine is not that we averaged x per game but that we have won 4 of our last 5 home games (without poor refereeing decisions could easily have ben all 5). We are better now than we were at the start of teh season have two quality loanees and maybe more to come. Our young players are stronger, better and more experienced. We have players returning from injury, we are playing with more confidence, our manager is not as raw and Pompey's points dedcuction means we are right back in it.

Will we stay up? Who knows, but I'm fare more optimistic than I was pre-season or even at Christmas when I was sure we would finish bottom. We have a chance we have teams we can beat and may even get 18-20 points out of that (I think we will get a win and a draw away before the end of teh season). Whether even that's enough is difficult to judge but I'm far from giving up yet.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

... in your opinion!

No, it's not an opinion. What you quoted were facts.

Be as optimistic as you like, that's generally a good quality; but there is a fine line between optimism and denial. I prefer history and stats to give me an idea of what's going to happen. Most thought we were going to do over Forest, but the few who bother to indulge the facts knew it was not likely to happen at all.

 

[Grendel]

No, it's not an opinion. What you quoted were facts.

Be as optimistic as you like, that's generally a good quality; but there is a fine line between optimism and denial. I prefer history and stats to give me an idea of what's going to happen. Most thought we were going to do over Forest, but the few who bother to indulge the facts knew it was not likely to happen at all.

Agreed. The original post says 7 home wins and 2 away wins. That is the best form in a batch of 16 games we have achieved in the last 9 years. Utter nonsense. 37 points and bottom will be the reality.

 

[rob9872]

No, it's not an opinion. What you quoted were facts.

Be as optimistic as you like, that's generally a good quality; but there is a fine line between optimism and denial. I prefer history and stats to give me an idea of what's going to happen. Most thought we were going to do over Forest, but the few who bother to indulge the facts knew it was not likely to happen at all.

Your 'facts' were over 30 games.

You could equally argue with 'facts' that form over the past 5 home games is more relative to our chances of survival as that is the settled side we have now and that would suggest that 12 from 15 is worth 17 from the next 21 at home only (in your 16-18 bracket you suggested impossible even if we didn't collect a solitary away point).

 

[Otis]

Agreed. The original post says 7 home wins and 2 away wins. That is the best form in a batch of 16 games we have achieved in the last 9 years. Utter nonsense. 37 points and bottom will be the reality.

Harsh, but almost certainly true.

I have no idea where this belief is that we can we can win 6 or maybe 7 games all of a sudden after the shittiest of seasons and the fact that we have solidly remained in the bottom 3 since last October.

Ohh, and as for 'winnable games,' wasn't Forest away a winnable game? Ipswich at home?

IF we had won at Forest I might have changed my opinion slightly and thought that there was perhaps the tiniest glimmer of hope that we could do it, but we didn't. As I said before, I think 15 points is the maximum we will get and 15 points will be a very good return.

15 points will not keep us up though.

 

[Astute]

We only need 20 points or close to that total if the clubs around us get that much. They are averaging about the same as us per game. Since xmas we have caught the other teams up. So we are in better form than the clubs a few of you seem to think will get lots of points. A few of them also have to come to our place. If we win these games they drop points.

So why are we already down?

 

[Otis]

We just are.

Unless we can suddenly do something about our terrible away form.

 

[Otis]

We only need 20 points or close to that total if the clubs around us get that much. They are averaging about the same as us per game. Since xmas we have caught the other teams up. So we are in better form than the clubs a few of you seem to think will get lots of points. A few of them also have to come to our place. If we win these games they drop points.

So why are we already down?

Okay, let's analyse it all.

1. We have had no unbeaten run at all, all season to speak of. The best we have managed is 3 games (1 win, 2 draws) back in August. We now suddenly need an unbeaten run.

2. We have the worst away record in the entire football league and have lost 9 away games in a row. We now suddenly need a massive upturn in our away form.

3. We don't score enough goals.

4. We let sloppy goals in pretty much every single game. When a team gets under pressure there is more likliehood of mistakes and we are now suddenly expecting those mistakes to stop. They have to stop in order to get the points and wins we'll need.

5. Players like Baker and Bell notoriously only play well every 4-5 games. We now suddenly need them to put in decent performances for a number of games in a row.

6. Rivals have games in hand.

7. We haven't kept a clean sheet away from home all season.

8. We have been in the bottom 3 since October.

9. We have a very small sqaud.

10. Everyone to a man here accepts that the quality of player we have here is not great.

11. We have a novice manager.

12. We have some incredibly tough away games to come.

13. We have only scored 7 goals away from home all season.

14. People talk of reasonable form but we have already lost six Championship games in 2012, and a joint divisional worst of 19 this season.

15. We have lost five league matches in which we have held the lead, and flittered away a potential 21 points from winning positions.

16. We have failed to win any game in which we have gone behind.



Yet, in spite of all this and the fact that we have only won 6 games all season, people suddenly expect us to conjure up a further 5 or 6 wins in just 14 matches.

Why oh why would any sane person believe we can do that? We lost our top scorer and some of our best players and most people say they were expecting possible relegation at the start of the season anyway, so why would we think that, suddenly, completely out of the blue, we can turn things around and survive?

Anything's possible of course and maybe one day I will win the lottery.

Those who haven't done so, prepare yourselves for relegation.

I already have.

 

[smileycov]

Okay, let's analyse it all.

1. We have had no unbeaten run at all, all season to speak of. The best we have managed is 3 games (1 win, 2 draws) back in August. We now suddenly need an unbeaten run. - No we don' just need to continue winning at home see what happens away.

2. We have the worst away record in the entire football league and have lost 9 away games in a row. We now suddenly need a massive upturn in our away form. - Winning or drawing away would be good, but not essential to survive

3. We don't score enough goals. cant argue with that lol

4. We let sloppy goals in pretty much every single game. When a team gets under pressure there is more likliehood of mistakes and we are now suddenly expecting those mistakes to stop. They have to stop in order to get the points and wins we'll need. - Again mostly away form

5. Players like Baker and Bell notoriously only play well every 4-5 games. We now suddenly need them to put in decent performances for a number of games in a row. - i would settle for every other with either of em!!

6. Rivals have games in hand. - who says they can win em, they are down there for a reason too

7. We haven't kept a clean sheet away from home all season. - Surely this has too change, but again not vital is it

8. We have been in the bottom 3 since October. - Only way is up? and no one expects us to too

9. We have a very small sqaud.

10. Everyone to a man here accepts that the quality of player we have here is not great.

11. We have a novice manager.

12. We have some incredibly tough away games to come. So?

13. We have only scored 7 goals away from home all season. - 1 or 2 may win a game

14. People talk of reasonable form but we have already lost six Championship games in 2012, and a joint divisional worst of 19 this season. - refers to 4 out of last 5 at home i think

15. We have lost five league matches in which we have held the lead, and flittered away a potential 21 points from winning positions. - May regret that

16. We have failed to win any game in which we have gone behind.



Yet, in spite of all this and the fact that we have only won 6 games all season, people suddenly expect us to conjure up a further 5 or 6 wins in just 14 matches.

Why oh why would any sane person believe we can do that? We lost our top scorer and some of our best players and most people say they were expecting possible relegation at the start of the season anyway, so why would we think that, suddenly, completely out of the blue, we can turn things around and survive?

Anything's possible of course and maybe one day I will win the lottery.

Those who haven't done so, prepare yourselves for relegation.

I already have.

I think we can win all but 1 at home and get something at watford and brizzle.........mostly though i am a cov fan so will allways have hope to survive, why wouldn't i ?
PUSB

 

[Otis]

Hope is completely different to believing.

I hope we survive.

Again I ask though, we have won 6 games all season, why do you think we can win all but 1 of our home games and get something in two away games?

 

[CUS Wyken]

Today will be a indication on our chances. A poor Barnsley team in disarray at the moment. We should be attacking these from the off

 

[LeamingtonBootBoy]

We only need 20 points or close to that total if the clubs around us get that much. They are averaging about the same as us per game. Since xmas we have caught the other teams up. So we are in better form than the clubs a few of you seem to think will get lots of points. A few of them also have to come to our place. If we win these games they drop points.

So why are we already down?

I'm finding it hard to find a team which has better form than us, considering that we have lost 14 of our last 19 games...and 7 of our last 9......:facepalm:

However, I am very optimistic about today....if we don't beat mid table teams like Barnsley, we have no hope against Le*cester and the Blues.

 

[Grendel]

Correct lbb on all fronts. I assume today we start as strong favourites. Rare in itself. Anything but a win and winnable game talk will disappear quickly.

 

[oakey]

It seems to me that very few fans are saying we WILL stay up but lots are stating we WILL go down. Therefore the latter are the ones who are not really being logical.
As it stands we probably have a 50:50 chance of survival based on:
1) we have collected more points in the last 10 games than the other 5 teams
2) we have to play some of our rivals at home where our record is better than a bottom 4 team
3) historically we have survived in a lot worse predicaments and our fans can hold our nerve in tense final matches.

Not really sure why people are so pessimistic...still all to play for.

 

[Otis]

It's been such a shit season, Oakey, that's why.

If we hadn't been in the bottom 3 since October I might have been a tad more optimistic. If we can get out of the bottom 3 now why were we unable to do so previously?

 

[smileycov]

Hope is completely different to believing.

I hope we survive.

Again I ask though, we have won 6 games all season, why do you think we can win all but 1 of our home games and get something in two away games?

Because of our form of late too be fair. of the 6 games we have won 4 have been recently. I feed off that current home form, look at the teams we are playing and truly believe we can win these. I have stated that blues at home is more than likely a defeat (we have slim chance though, but most likely a defeat) so i am not blind or un realistic. Even you must agree of late we have been better at the Ricoh. Away is a puzzle, unsure why we can't do it. I didn't say we would get something away, just hopefull that at watford and bristol (2 of the weaker teams ) we may scrape something. I am a Realist some are defeatest....just get a bit touchy when people write us off and class people like me deluded (not aimed at you) . My opinion differs from yours, thats cool it is what forum's are about after all.

 

[LeamingtonBootBoy]

It seems to me that very few fans are saying we WILL stay up but lots are stating we WILL go down. Therefore the latter are the ones who are not really being logical.
As it stands we probably have a 50:50 chance of survival based on:
1) we have collected more points in the last 10 games than the other 5 teams
2) we have to play some of our rivals at home where our record is better than a bottom 4 team
3) historically we have survived in a lot worse predicaments and our fans can hold our nerve in tense final matches.

Not really sure why people are so pessimistic...still all to play for.

Oakey, could I just state the following around the 3 points you make;

1) The points totals in the last 9 games are (10 games in brackets);
Cov 6 (9)
Forest 8 (8)
Donny 8 (8)
Pompey 8 (8)
Millwall 5 (5)
Bristol C 10 (10)

2) Home fixtures. We are all aware of our home fixtures, so let's look at our rivals';

Forest - Donny, Millwall, Brighton, Bristol C, Blackpool, Pompey
Donny - Peterbro, Brighton, Reading, Derby, Millwall, Burnley, Blues, Pompey, Ipswich
Pompey - Leeds, Brighton, Bristol. C, Blues, Hull, Burnley, Millwall, Palace, Derby
Millwall - Reading, Soton, Leeds, Hull, Le*cester, Blackpool
Bristol C - Le*cester, Cardiff, Watford, Derby, Cov, West Ham, Barnsley

Millwall have the toughest home fixtures....but they are 6 points ahead of us...the others will all identify at least 4/5 winnable games...as we are.

3) This point has no bearing at all on the current predicament...if it did, Huddersfield would fancy winning the Premier League this season.

So, to answer why some are pessimistic...putting aside what we have seen, our rookie manager, threadbare squad, 5 clean sheets all season, individual mistakes, lack of funding, a piss poor away record and the likes of Carl Baker/David Bell gracing our squad (although AT gave Bell a 4 year contract 'because we can't afford to lose someone of Belly's quality'....I suggest that some pessimism stems from the above 2 points I have made.

 

[LeamingtonBootBoy]

We're 5/4 at Hills...just had a score on us

 

[Otis]

Because of our form of late too be fair. of the 6 games we have won 4 have been recently. I feed off that current home form, look at the teams we are playing and truly believe we can win these. I have stated that blues at home is more than likely a defeat (we have slim chance though, but most likely a defeat) so i am not blind or un realistic. Even you must agree of late we have been better at the Ricoh. Away is a puzzle, unsure why we can't do it. I didn't say we would get something away, just hopefull that at watford and bristol (2 of the weaker teams ) we may scrape something. I am a Realist some are defeatest....just get a bit touchy when people write us off and class people like me deluded (not aimed at you) . My opinion differs from yours, thats cool it is what forum's are about after all.

Fair enough.

I just think if I start believing we will do it I am going to be really down in the dumps come the end of the season and well pee'd off.

If I prepare myself now it cushions the blow somewhat. I have gradually been getting used to the idea of League One since Christmas.

 

[Otis]

Looking at our rivals' fixtures does make interesting reading.


Forest - Donny, Millwall, Brighton, Bristol C, Blackpool, Pompey

Have to say they must be pretty happy indeed with that run of fixtures.


Donny - Peterbro, Brighton, Reading, Derby, Millwall, Burnley, Blues, Pompey, Ipswich

Tougher, but again you would think there could be 2 -3 wins out of that lot and I do fancy them to beat Peterborough today.


Pompey - Leeds, Brighton, Bristol. C, Blues, Hull, Burnley, Millwall, Palace, Derby

They have a few tough ones in Leeds, Birmingham and Burnley.


Millwall - Reading, Soton, Leeds, Hull, Le*cester, Blackpool

Yes, that does like tough. Could see them losing all of those to be honest. Shame they are 6 points ahead of us. Had it been a fair bit closer i would fancy our chances a lot more.


Bristol C - Le*cester, Cardiff, Watford, Derby, Cov, West Ham, Barnsley

Again, quite a few tough ones. Leshtur, Cardiff and West Ham look particularly hard.

 

[LeamingtonBootBoy]

Otis, if you look at Millwall's away fixtures, they are, as you would expect with a tougher home run in, easier than ours.

It's our home form which is key...starting (again!) today...off to pub for pre-match nerve easing....see all on here later this evening in celebratory mood I hope!

 

[Otis]

There's certainly a fair few fixtures down there where the teams at the bottom play each other.