The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (24 Viewers)

[Brighton Sky Blue]

You should be writing manifestos. Calling the electorate thick is a surefire winner.

The truth hurts dude. You tell me what people are when they don't vote for policies they want, do vote for policies they don't want and that will hurt them, then fall for bollocks in the press

 

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[tisza]

BTW all these tory mps complaining but they had an extra election to put May in charge of all this anyway.

 

[Ian1779]

I still wouldn’t have walked out though.

 

[tisza]

The truth hurts dude. You tell me what people are when they don't vote for policies they want, do vote for policies they don't want and that will hurt them, then fall for bollocks in the press

Simplistic surely. Every party has popular and unpopular policies. Much the same as some misguided Brexiteers you can't cherry pick policies

 

[tisza]

View attachment 11792 I still wouldn’t have walked out though.

Key word is bilateral. What about all the others opinions ?

 

[Grendel]

Evidence? Go

Jeremy Corbyn accused of inaction over paedophile scandal

 

[tisza]

See the Conservative manifesto of GE 2017. He has a point.

Surely the lesson from 2017 is that manifestos aren't worth the paper they're written on.

 

[Ian1779]

Key word is bilateral. What about all the others opinions ?

I guess because they both want to get Brexit through, but have differing opinions on how to do it. The others want it stopped. Plus in reality they are the ones with the numbers in terms of MP’s and votes.

 

[Ian1779]

Surely the lesson from 2017 is that manifestos aren't worth the paper they're written on.

Only the Tory one, the Labour one will probably remain largely intact in a future election, such was the quality and popularity of its polices.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Simplistic surely. Every party has popular and unpopular policies. Much the same as some misguided Brexiteers you can't cherry pick policies

Polling shows quite consistently that the public likes progressive centre-left policies, of which there were many in the 2017 Labour manifesto. The same polling also found that this switched once the people were told they were Labour policies. Ask yourself why people still believe that Labour crashed the economy even after George Osborne admitted it was bollocks. Why is public perception of immigration so at odds with the reality. Why did the massive gap between Labour and the Tories suddenly close after Corbyn was allowed extended airtime to push his policy positions.

It's because people are drawn to posh accents, long words and emphatic delivery over substance. They vary of course, some like G probably read the Telegraph and smugly brand social democratic policies as 'hard left', whereas others read in the Sun about 'loony lefties'. Watch Question Time, talk to the average person in the street, look at what tends to get voted up on political articles. Tens of millions of morons

 

[tisza]

Only the Tory one, the Labour one will probably remain largely intact in a future election, such was the quality and popularity of its polices.

Noticed the landslide. Given the quality and popularity of the policies any particular reason they didn't win?

 

[Ian1779]

Noticed the landslide. Given the quality and popularity of the policies any particular reason they didn't win?

Because as Brighton just said, you have a long history of influence through written media that is still impacting on decision making of voters. Luckily this is decreasing with the advent of social media, and access to information online. You also have to look at the demographics of constituencies, particularly in relation to age. Older people are ‘generally’ less supportive of Labour policies with younger people ‘generally’ more supportive. Factor in the probability of voting in relation to age and you have what occurred. Even if Corbyn came to power at the next GE, it is unlikely that Lab would hold a majority - the Scotland losses in 2010 have put paid to that for the foreseeable future. The Tories will probably never drop below 200 MP’s even at their worst.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Jeremy Corbyn accused of inaction over paedophile scandal

Funny to read some of the other arrogant nonsense in there, yet interestingly Margaret Hodge comes out worse but there's no mud slinging in her direction. The worst the article claims is that he didn't get back to the lady who alerted him to the problems. Corbyn called for an inquiry. There hasn't been any traction on this for 4 years which leads me to believe there's nothing in it-the council does come off awful though.
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Yet we do know of Cameron's inquiry into sex abuse rings involving former Tories, and that 36 MPs were highlighted for sexual harassment in 2015.

 

[tisza]

Piece on BBC news channel saying they've had researchers going through social media to find a single piece of support for the car crash speech.
Nearly an hour gone and haven't found one yet.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Piece on BBC news channel saying they've had researchers going through social media to find a single piece of support for the car crash speech.
Nearly an hour gone and haven't found one yet.

People are paid to scroll through Twatter?

 

[tisza]

Because as Brighton just said, you have a long history of influence through written media that is still impacting on decision making of voters. Luckily this is decreasing with the advent of social media, and access to information online. You also have to look at the demographics of constituencies, particularly in relation to age. Older people are ‘generally’ less supportive of Labour policies with younger people ‘generally’ more supportive. Factor in the probability of voting in relation to age and you have what occurred. Even if Corbyn came to power at the next GE, it is unlikely that Lab would hold a majority - the Scotland losses in 2010 have put paid to that for the foreseeable future. The Tories will probably never drop below 200 MP’s even at their worst.

Problem with this old vs young (or experience vs idealism) is that young people get older and the process continues in a vicious circle.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Interestingly she claims there is no popular support for another referendum-polls show the opposite and by convincing margins.

 

[tisza]

People are paid to scroll through Twatter?

Yep just updated the story and still can't find any relevant support for the speech.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Problem with this old vs young (or experience vs idealism) is that young people get older and the process continues in a vicious circle.

Yes, experience of voting for parties that shaft you because the lady or gentleman had a nice accent. Information is much more widely available than it was before. Suspect that my generation and the ones to follow will buck the trend

 

[tisza]

Interestingly she claims there is no popular support for another referendum-polls show the opposite and by convincing margins.

Neutral polls still have minority support for a 2nd referendum. Most popular opinion atm is just to get it over with quickly.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Yep just updated the story and still can't find any relevant support for the speech.

Did they teach Twitter trawling at Essex?

 

[Ian1779]

Problem with this old vs young (or experience vs idealism) is that young people get older and the process continues in a vicious circle.

True, but I think this will start to shift over the next few years, thanks to social media and dwindling press influence. You will always have the tribal element of politics which is why we will always 2 parties taking most of the electorate.

 

[tisza]

Yes, experience of voting for parties that shaft you because the lady or gentleman had a nice accent. Information is much more widely available than it was before. Suspect that my generation and the ones to follow will buck the trend

Trend has been as young grow up and get jobs, start families they move from idealism to pragmatism in their voting choices. Buying council houses was a good example of this. Swapping the principle of housing for all to becoming home owners.
Education becomes a key issue for those that have kids as to those that don't.
As far as accents etc. goes surely increased social media will make those that speak well, look good even more appealing? Let's be honest social media currently more noted for its shallowness than its seriousness.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Neutral polls still have minority support for a 2nd referendum. Most popular opinion atm is just to get it over with quickly.

There is a relatively large % of don't know, but it's even gaining traction with some Leave voters. Would be a very straightforward solution

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Trend has been as young grow up and get jobs, start families they move from idealism to pragmatism in their voting choices. Buying council houses was a good example of this. Swapping the principle of housing for all to becoming home owners.
Education becomes a key issue for those that have kids as to those that don't.
As far as accents etc. goes surely increased social media will make those that speak well, look good even more appealing? Let's be honest social media currently more noted for its shallowness than its seriousness.

Those who work in education tend to be quite left leaning and strongly oppose Tory policy on it. I don't see the pragmatism in voting for cuts to services that you have increased need for as you get older or start a family. People with families who vote Tory then express bewilderment that there's fewer police on the streets, their schools can't find or afford teachers, their hospitals don't have enough doctors and the only work going is at Deliveroo. It isn't pragmatic, it's suicidal.

The big difference with political bullshitting now is that it's far easier to fact check it. Which is why when G attempts to link Corbyn to child sex scandals, he can be refuted in a few minutes. It's what allows me to back up points about the public voting against their own interests with hard evidence

 

[tisza]

There is a relatively large % of don't know, but it's even gaining traction with some Leave voters. Would be a very straightforward solution

Not straight forward. Would take us past EU elections.
Don't knows are dangerous as they swayed last referendum in late stages. EU would want a much clearer picture of referendum outcome. Another leave vote still doesn't make things that much clearer as Parliament still wouldn’t have a consensus exit strategy.
EU don't want UK mps in eu parliament as already fighting enough issues with rising nationalism in other EU countries. Another 30/40 UK mps not committed to EU principles a headache they don't want.
EU still looking over their shoulders at Greece and Italy and similar levels of EU dissatisfaction as preBrexit UK.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Not straight forward. Would take us past EU elections.
Don't knows are dangerous as they swayed last referendum in late stages. EU would want a much clearer picture of referendum outcome. Another leave vote still doesn't make things that much clearer as Parliament still wouldn’t have a consensus exit strategy.
EU don't want UK mps in eu parliament as already fighting enough issues with rising nationalism in other EU countries. Another 30/40 UK mps not committed to EU principles a headache they don't want.
EU still looking over their shoulders at Greece and Italy and similar levels of EU dissatisfaction as preBrexit UK.

May's deal or a.n.other most popular Leave option versus Remain. Binding so that Parliament must go with whatever wins. UK elections for the parliament could be deferred until the second vote and wouldn't be needed if Leave won.

For a political genius these are some weak sauce arguments

 

[SkyblueBazza]

Ahhh. I see the way it’s going with leavers. If we don’t leave without a deal at the end of the month it’s sovereignties fault. If we’re forced to leave without a deal at the end of the month it’s the EU’s fault. Leave take no responsibility for the vote.

No - more a case of the true value of sovereignty as an EU member state

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[tisza]

May's deal or a.n.other most popular Leave option versus Remain. Binding so that Parliament must go with whatever wins. UK elections for the parliament could be deferred until the second vote and wouldn't be needed if Leave won.

For a political genius these are some weak sauce arguments

Nice try but you're weakly arguing from a UK point of view.
European view is they want it done as they need to move on. Not prepared to change their election laws to accommodate something that isn't even guaranteed. Would almost certainly be vetoed by a number of EU states. They aren't going to leave their Parliament in limbo whilst waiting for the outcome. UK seats already been reallocated for may elections. Would again be a legal challenge from within Europe from any number of sides which wouldn't be resolved quickly and so you'd have a lame duck Parliament. There's too many seats at stake with how close the predicted voting blocks are going to be.
You've got 3 options so if Remain gets 40% and the other 2 leave get 30% what do you propose? Surely can't be remain if the total leave vote is 60%.
More leave options you put up the greater the chance of them being chosen as people start cherry picking again.
Another popular leave deal isn't even on the European table as it hasn't even been negotiated yet.
Highly unlikely Parliament is going to pass a bill even trying to make a referendum legally binding as goes directly against the precedent of Parliamentary sovereignty.

 

[skybluetony176]

No - more a case of the true value of sovereignty as an EU member state

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That’s exactly what I said. Everyone else’s fault.

 

[tisza]

Ahhh. I see the way it’s going with leavers. If we don’t leave without a deal at the end of the month it’s sovereignties fault. If we’re forced to leave without a deal at the end of the month it’s the EU’s fault. Leave take no responsibility for the vote.

think today's opinion poll mentioned above clearly shows who would get the blame for any mess -EU on about 7% without rechecking it.

 

[SkyblueBazza]

We're always in control of whether we choose to leave the EU without a deal.

Thst isn't the case. Our sovereign parliament has chosen not to leave without a deal. They have rejected what is apparently the only deal the EU will agree with us. We are not in control of the EU saying 'no' to an extensiin, 'no' to renengaging negotiations to get an acceptable deal, nor them saying 'you are out 29/3/19 - end of'


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[Brighton Sky Blue]

Nice try but you're weakly arguing from a UK point of view.
European view is they want it done as they need to move on. Not prepared to change their election laws to accommodate something that isn't even guaranteed. Would almost certainly be vetoed by a number of EU states. They aren't going to leave their Parliament in limbo whilst waiting for the outcome. UK seats already been reallocated for may elections. Would again be a legal challenge from within Europe from any number of sides which wouldn't be resolved quickly and so you'd have a lame duck Parliament. There's too many seats at stake with how close the predicted voting blocks are going to be.
You've got 3 options so if Remain gets 40% and the other 2 leave get 30% what do you propose? Surely can't be remain if the total leave vote is 60%.
More leave options you put up the greater the chance of them being chosen as people start cherry picking again.
Another popular leave deal isn't even on the European table as it hasn't even been negotiated yet.
Highly unlikely Parliament is going to pass a bill even trying to make a referendum legally binding as goes directly against the precedent of Parliamentary sovereignty.

This is a way to get it done with no wriggle room for politicians to dodge the outcome. I’ve never argued for 3 options but for the most popular Leave option (currently no deal) against Remain as I don’t want the Leave vote split. Taking a few extra months to hold this and get a cast iron outcome is in everyone’s interest.

The EU will get it’s answer and so will Parliament.

 

[SkyblueBazza]

That’s exactly what I said. Everyone else’s fault.

Wonder which way you wlll wriggle next?
Everything is a negative isn't it....& despite what you say. Had remainers & the EU itself taken Brexit possibilty more seriously, given Cameron something to cone back with instead of h8s tail between his legs...perhaps we wouldn't be where we actually are now? But they then repeat the exercise with May...more thsn once!

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[Brighton Sky Blue]

Thst isn't the case. Our sovereign parliament has chosen not to leave without a deal. They have rejected what is apparently the only deal the EU will agree with us. We are not in control of the EU saying 'no' to an extensiin, 'no' to renengaging negotiations to get an acceptable deal, nor them saying 'you are out 29/3/19 - end of'


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Whose fault is that