if you accept that 5 teams will bring 5000 and the other 18 average 1500
That is an average of nearly 2000 from away fans
We would certainly get 8000+ home fans even at st andrews
so minimum of 10000 and then the villa/blues games + first game would add another couple of 1000 to the average
so 12000 average minimum subject to crowds being allowed (but that would restrict us wherever we played)
Predicting crowds next season is difficult, particularly given we don't know how or when fans will be admitted in to watch again. Playing BCD initially probably also evens things up for us a bit with our Championship rivals, and means there is less pressure on the club to move back to Cov at this time. In terms of last season we averaged about 6,500, but with our winning form and a couple of expected much bigger crowds, combined with promotion and winning the league, we would have possibly got up to an average nearer 8,000 had the season been played out fully.
Our problem with staying at St Andrews however comes, once crowds are allowed back if we start to lose games regularly. In those circumstances, apart from the hardened few thousand, many will stop going, even at Championship level, particularly to mid week and televised games. I agree that all being well we could expect 8,000+ home fans to start with, but from there it will be events on the pitch that determine our support level. If we were playing in Cov I don't think the possible drop off in support would be so impactful if we struggled, particularly with the new found novelty of playing in the Championship again. My gut feeling is that we will do really well to average 10,000 at St Andrews next season, and that 8,000 will be a more likely average. I only see us averaging 12,000 if we threaten the play offs. By contrast If we were to play in Cov I think we would average between 14,000 and 20,000 depending on success levels.