Hardly Nostradamus here - even I was predicting exactly the same thing last week.
The only people who got caught out by the early results are aging English blokes with Betfair accounts and over-active imaginations.
Trump is my favourite comedian of the year already (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter tisza
- Start date
Hardly Nostradamus here - even I was predicting exactly the same thing last week.
The only people who got caught out by the early results are aging English blokes with Betfair accounts and over-active imaginations.
Earlsdon_Skyblue1
Well-Known Member
The system does look fishy, even if it genuinely might not be. This postal vote stuff is crazy.
As I said earlier I don't really care who wins (although would prefer Biden did), but I do get some of the frustration. Really dodgy system all round.
Russia Today is a hell of a drug, folks
Earlsdon_Skyblue1
Well-Known Member
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
As far as I'm aware they can COUNT votes received up to 3 days after the vote BUT ONLY if it's post-marked on or before the day of the election.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
I'm still struggling to believe that Trump actually called for vote counting to be stopped because they'd be against him, that's next level dictator
Evo1883
Well-Known Member
Just going to throw in a curve ball... Trump campaign advisor has stated that by Friday when all the numbers are in.. Trump will be re elected.
Now he's either had a massive bag of beak or he's in the know about numbers in the remaining places.
I for one will shit in my hand and clap if this happens... But life has thrown out bigger surprises
Now he's either had a massive bag of beak or he's in the know about numbers in the remaining places.
I for one will shit in my hand and clap if this happens... But life has thrown out bigger surprises
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
Wonder what it's like to live in a state where 70% of the electorate think Trump is great.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Is that because of the postal votes being counted which definitely make sense if they're for Trump?
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Apparently some key county’s polling hugely in Trump’s favour e.g. Maricopa voting 62% Republican and others (quoting Ben Shapiro there).
The result was called pretty early, and they are yet to hit 85% counted votes yet. For context, Trump was winning Wisconsin and Michigan at 85% vote count.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Those people think exactly the same with regards to California.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
One group must be wrong and my money's on the dumbasses who believe Biden is a communist when he'd make Ronald Reagan proud
Evo1883
Well-Known Member
Something along those lines, I mean surely not going to happen though right? Would be one of the most surreal turnarounds in history?
Cant see it
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Don’t get me wrong, calling Biden a socialist/communist is plain stupid. Equally stupid, however, are the same people who call Trump a white supremacist/nationalist. Frankly, there are more socialists in the Democratic Party than white nationalists in the Republican Party.
I have friends from California, and they just do not get what Trump’s appeal is.
If I went back to Uni to do a masters, I’d definitely study this election and the 2016. I’m glad I didn’t have to go out and vote in either election!
Earlsdon_Skyblue1
Well-Known Member
Hence my bit in brackets.
Pretty easy to manipulate in this day and age. It's a shambolic system. As I said earlier, even if there is genuinely is not any election fraud, it looks very fishy. For anyone involved.
Otis
Well-Known Member
Exactly. The notion that people can send in postal votes after the polls is pure bullshit and a myth perpetuated by Trump and his cronies.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
It's all the other stuff, voting for a party that does a shit job every time they're in office, taking people off healthcare, giving loads of money away to the mega rich in tax cuts, cutting the social safety net etc and then saying they care about these things. No, you're thick and got conned by a charlatan
Earlsdon_Skyblue1
Well-Known Member
No it isn't.
You think it wouldn't be easy to fake a post-mark or a bunch of post-marks? Fanatics of either side could do it if they really wanted to badly enough. It is a stupid system.
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
have you not seen some of the crap they’ve been coming out with?
Evo1883
Well-Known Member
I have, but are you like me 99% certain Biden has won but not prepared to completely write this off incase it actually happens
Earlsdon_Skyblue1
Well-Known Member
They're all chatting shit I think.
No one knows, both teams are just trying to play themselves up. Like the weigh in for boxing. It's embarrassing really.
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
Trump's whole spiel has been about definitive extremes. It's not going to change now from his team, whatever's happening, good or bad.
Probably get more intuitive feel for how it's going by listening to my cat.
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
Yeah that’s fair enough but the Republicans have been coming out with that sort of stuff all day and making false claims, for me it’s all about misinformation and trying to create mistrust in democratic processes.I have, but are you like me 99% certain Biden has won but not prepared to completely write this off incase it actually happens
Otis
Well-Known Member
Six ways mail-in ballots are protected from fraud
Charlotte Hill, University of California, Berkeley, Jake Grumbach, University of Washington
September 17, 2020 7.29am EDT
Voter fraud is very rare, whether people vote in person or by mail. That much is clear from a large body of research.
One of us is a political scientist at the University of Washington, and the other is a former elections commissioner who now studies voting laws. We can explain why voter fraud is so rare – especially for mail-in ballots, which have drawn both the interest and concern of many people this year.
The goal, of course, is to make sure that ballots received by mail are legitimate – that they are cast by registered voters, not by others lying about their identity, and that each voter casts only one ballot in a single election. The mail-in voting process has several built-in safeguards that together make it hard for one person to vote fraudulently, and even more difficult to commit voter fraud on a scale capable of swinging election outcomes.
1. Only valid voters can get a ballot in the mail
People don’t get ballots in the mail by accident. Some states mail them to all registered voters automatically – as in Oregon, Washington, Utah, Colorado and Hawaii, which conduct all elections by mail even when there’s not a pandemic. These states mail ballots to eligible voters at the address where their registration form says they live.
In other states, voters have to request a ballot – and it’s not mailed out until an election official has confirmed that the person is an eligible voter.
This is actually a higher standard than in-person voting: In many states, people are allowed to fill out a registration form and cast their ballot at the same time, with their ballot counting only once their registration is formally approved.
2. It is very hard to make fake ballots
Ballots feature particular design elements that are difficult to copy. They are printed on special card stock, with exact page size, color and thickness varying by state, or even county or town.
Marking a choice differs, too, with some places asking voters to “fill in the bubble” while other people must “connect the arrow” or “darken the box.”
The text on ballots is also different from place to place. Presidential candidates may remain constant across the country, but each state has different races for members of Congress, as well as statewide positions like governor or attorney general. And every voting district may have a different choice for state legislatures, court and school positions, local political councils, and even sewer commissioners. Voters may not notice all the little details, but election officials certainly would if they received a ballot that wasn’t quite right.
A sample ballot from Cobb County, Georgia.
Ballots are specific to very particular locations, including counties, municipalities and even sewer districts. AP Photo/Amy Beth Hanson
3. Voters must affirm their identity
Every state has a process for verifying that absentee voters – the technical term for people who return ballots by mail rather than in person – really are who they say they are.
In most states, voters must sign the outside of their return envelope. This signature usually cannot deviate significantly from the signature on their original voter registration card, or the ballot will be rejected. If anything, the process of matching these signatures is often too strict, critics say, leading election administrators to unfairly reject authentic votes from registered voters due to slight signature discrepancies.
Some states also require voters to obtain a signature from one or more notaries or witnesses. A few even make voters submit a copy of their official government ID, like a driver’s license.
4. It’s very hard to duplicate mail-ballot envelopes
In general, voters cannot return their absentee ballots in just any old envelope. Rather, the ballots must be returned inside an official government envelope, which is typically mailed directly to voters along with the ballot itself.
Many of these ballot envelopes feature unique bar codes to identify each voter – and to allow voters to track their ballot’s progress through the mail and the counting process.
An outsider who wanted to manufacture and distribute fake ballots on a large enough scale to affect election results would need to do more than duplicate the special envelope and the bar codes. They would also somehow need to prevent the original, authentic envelopes and bar codes from being used. Otherwise, election officials would notice that a unique bar code was being used more than once.
Mailed ballots sit in a box.
In most states, ballots must be mailed in official envelopes. AP Photo/Hans Pennink
5. The Postal Service will notice oddities
Anyone hoping to conduct mail-voting fraud would have to avoid detection by not only regular election officials, but also the U.S. Postal Service.
The Postal Service coordinates with state and local election departments to flag any ballots that deviate in even minor ways from typical procedure. For instance, a Texas county commissioner was deemed guilty of voter fraud after post office employees found him improperly returning 56 mail-in ballots completed by other voters.
The agency also has its own police force, the U.S. Postal Inspection Service, which investigates potential crimes that relate to the mail.
[The Conversation’s science, health and technology editors pick their favorite stories. Weekly on Wednesdays.]
6. Voter fraud is a serious federal and state crime
For a federal election, each act of voter fraud can be punished by five years in prison and a US$10,000 fine, plus any additional state penalties.
By contrast, all that work put into attempting fraud would net the perpetrator only a single vote in favor of their preferred candidate. As a report from the Brennan Center for Justice succinctly put it, “That single extra vote is simply not worth the price.”
Voters who choose to vote by mail in November can be confident that their own ballot – and those of their neighbors – will be protected from fraud.
Comment on this article
Charlotte Hill
Ph.D. Candidate in Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley
Jake Grumbach
Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Washington
Charlotte Hill is a board member of RepresentUS and FairVote and advises Vote From Home 2020.
Jake Grumbach is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Washington.
University of California provides funding as a founding partner of The Conversation US.
University of Washington provides funding as a member of The Convers
SeaSeeEffCee
Well-Known Member
The Trump campaign have been trying to pretend they're still winning all night, its part of the strategy to stir up anger in his base and feed into the 'stolen' election narrative. Fox and AP wouldn't have given Biden Arizona if the data wasn't there to support it.
Evo1883
Well-Known Member
Actually that was my exact reaction as I saw that biamou pass tonightImagine us lot on here friday if it actually happened
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
I don’t disagree. In a UK context, I’m a Labour voter and not switching anytime soon.
Without getting into the nuts and bolts of this, people just didn’t flip to Trump for no reason. Like many Labour strongholds, areas like Penn, Wisconsin and particularly Michigan have seen these areas lose their manufacturing jobs abroad. If the Democrats were at least perceived to be fighting for their interests, they’d still be beating the Republicans comfortably in these states.
If the Democrats learn from their battles with Trump (which they probably won’t), the changing demographics makes it entirely possible that they could dominate for 3 or 4 elections.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
The antidote to Trump in 2016 was Bernie, who would never have lost those states and would likely have won in a landslide of his own. They stacked the deck for an awful candidate and did it again this time. They got away with it now by the skin of their teeth but 270 is anything but a ringing endorsement. The progressive left's failure to win elections has had terrible consequences both in this country and the US.
Liquid Gold
Well-Known Member
What are the odds on Trump going again in 2024?
I mean....how does voting late by post even make sense as a strategy for mass electoral fraud?
Not that there's any evidence that it's either easy to do, or happening at a level that could change the election result. But still.....what's up with that?
SeaSeeEffCee
Well-Known Member
He'll probably try but to be honest, there is a chance he's not in a fit enough state to run by then. The guy is hardly a picture of health. I'd imagine Don Jnr. or Ivanka will definitely run if he doesn't.