shmmeee
Well-Known Member
England and Wales.
I used the SUM() function, so I’m fairly sure it’s added up.
Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (156 Viewers)
- Thread starter BackRoomRummermill
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England and Wales.
I used the SUM() function, so I’m fairly sure it’s added up.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Why wouldn’t you just go to the source?
Data isn’t simple. A basic calculation of this year - last year has its caveats (last year might have been a particularly high year, the rate was expected to fall so even a steady rate is a relative rise, etc).
Even an average of the last five years has to account for the fact that recently deaths haven’t been dropping as much as historically. Whether this is a temporary or permanent levelling off is another question.
How many caveats you want to account for and how serious you think they are is up to you and your purpose.
Earlsdon_Skyblue1
Well-Known Member
Surely data is simple here on face value? Either you're breathing or you're not.
So many sources of information say different things, so I don't think it is any conspiracy just to ask questions. So far all we've got is agent Shmmeee with his bloody abacus!
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
Worth point out excess deaths and excess winter deaths are not comparable. Is that maybe what is causing confusion?
Excess deaths, which people use in relation to covid, is the difference between the death rate now and the average of the previous 5 years.
Excess winter deaths is a comparison of the December to March death rate with the average of the four months before and four months after. The five year average is over 32K which you have to factor in when you look at the high year which was winter 14/15 where the figure rose to just under 44K so its not 44K above normal, its 12K above normal. Wasn't that down to the prediction of which flu strain would be dominant that winter being wrong?
To add to the confusion the ONS have decided to remove covid deaths from this years excess winter death figures so it is comparable to previous years.
Excess deaths, which people use in relation to covid, is the difference between the death rate now and the average of the previous 5 years.
Excess winter deaths is a comparison of the December to March death rate with the average of the four months before and four months after. The five year average is over 32K which you have to factor in when you look at the high year which was winter 14/15 where the figure rose to just under 44K so its not 44K above normal, its 12K above normal. Wasn't that down to the prediction of which flu strain would be dominant that winter being wrong?
To add to the confusion the ONS have decided to remove covid deaths from this years excess winter death figures so it is comparable to previous years.
Earlsdon_Skyblue1
Well-Known Member
England and Wales.
I used the SUM() function, so I’m fairly sure it’s added up.
Death rate back to early 2000s levels - Full Fact
The death rate fell considerably over the past two decades, as life expectancy improved. 2020 saw these improvements reversed.
fullfact.org
Here's another one. Says that 2008 was worse.
That was the year we had Mifsud, so pretty recent.
Other articles are saying where we are is comparable to one of the years the Luftwaffe came to visit.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Surely data is simple here on face value? Either you're breathing or you're not.
So many sources of information say different things, so I don't think it is any conspiracy just to ask questions. So far all we've got is agent Shmmeee with his bloody abacus!
Nothing is simple.
But yeah, those numbers I have are about as raw as it gets. Registered deaths by week from the ONS all causes.
Even then: we know January 2020 was unusually low I believe and would drag that number down, similarly Jan 2021 would show huge increases, should we take something like a financial year instead? Always choices to make. Always arguments to have. But at some point you’re either intentionally hiding what the data is telling you it you’re torturing it beyond all recognition.
No serious analysis of the death data during this pandemic is going to come out saying anything other than tens of thousands of extra people died, even with all the restrictions. Equally we will come out with one of, if not the, highest death rates in the world. The reasons for that can, and certainly will, be debated. But the fact remains.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Death rate back to early 2000s levels - Full Fact
The death rate fell considerably over the past two decades, as life expectancy improved. 2020 saw these improvements reversed.
Here's another one. Says that 2008 was worse.
That was the year we had Mifsud, so pretty recent.
Other articles are saying where we are is comparable to one of the years the Luftwaffe came to visit.
That’s the death rate. I edited a post about that earlier with a link to a Sky article explaining (long article, quite a way down, look for the graph I posted).
Earlsdon_Skyblue1
Well-Known Member
Nothing is simple.
But yeah, those numbers I have are about as raw as it gets. Registered deaths by week from the ONS all causes.
Even then: we know January 2020 was unusually low I believe and would drag that number down, similarly Jan 2021 would show huge increases, should we take something like a financial year instead? Always choices to make. Always arguments to have. But at some point you’re either intentionally hiding what the data is telling you it you’re torturing it beyond all recognition.
No serious analysis of the death data during this pandemic is going to come out saying anything other than tens of thousands of extra people died, even with all the restrictions. Equally we will come out with one of, if not the, highest death rates in the world. The reasons for that can, and certainly will, be debated. But the fact remains.
Yeah exactly. I'm not coming at this from any particular angle, I'm just getting pretty fed up of hearing sound bites from the news so was trying to research it a bit more.
Wish I hadn't bothered.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Just don’t watch it and don’t look, things are shite enough without seeing journalists find excuses for their salaries.
Ccfcisparks
Well-Known Member
UK's Covid R rate now falls below 1 in EVERY region
Department of Health bosses declared another 15,144 coronavirus infections - down almost 21 per cent in a week, meaning 4million Britons have tested positive since the pandemic began.
This scaremongering is really really annoying me now. Quite clearly this article is written to be reactionary.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
UK's Covid R rate now falls below 1 in EVERY region
Department of Health bosses declared another 15,144 coronavirus infections - down almost 21 per cent in a week, meaning 4million Britons have tested positive since the pandemic began.www.dailymail.co.uk
This scaremongering is really really annoying me now. Quite clearly this article is written to be reactionary.
Yeah it’s just toxic. If vaccinations don’t lead to relaxing of measures then good luck convincing people to get them.
MusicDating
Euro 2016 Prediction League Champion!!
Giving social media and MSM a break is very good advice. Just keep an eye on the daily figures and briefings if you need to (as despite the bollocks, they will inform exactly what is going to happen (well until the u-turn)). A mate of mine was struggling too and it was a vicious circle as he read more to try and find some good news. He's a lot better after a break from it.
Remember their job is to get clicks, so running a 'Covid is here forever' story is no different to a 'Robins said this shocking news about one his strikers' story really...
Remember their job is to get clicks, so running a 'Covid is here forever' story is no different to a 'Robins said this shocking news about one his strikers' story really...
Liquid Gold
Well-Known Member
The gutter press is really reaching a new level of shit in order for clicks at the moment. I agree about giving it a break if your mental health is struggling. All I’ve been looking at are the vaccination graphs that I share on here occasionally.
Mother in law was done yesterday so will be on the next set of numbers. Keep them coming.
Mother in law was done yesterday so will be on the next set of numbers. Keep them coming.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Yeah. There will be a drop in the vaccine numbers as Pfizer does some production work, but think we have planned in for that and will move into second jabs while that’s going on.
Liquid Gold
Well-Known Member
We're hopefully going to get some Moderna stock in soon. It would be good timing if that dropped as Pfizer dropped back. My mother in law was given Pfizer so they must be confident of having at least 12 weeks worth of stock on it.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
The Pfizer delay will be just about two weeks I think, no issue with that as normal service will resume thereafter
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
My mum had the Pfizer vaccine as well, I do know they are seeing if they can mix and match the vaccines that work in the same way
Demanding that a date for the end of lockdown is "signed in blood" is interesting wording from those Tory MPs, for a decision that could cost hundreds/thousands of lives!
Couldn't agree more with the advice to take a break from the media every now and again btw.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Liquid Gold
Well-Known Member
It's absolute madness to put an arbitrary date on something so changeable. I know the Tory party are just money minded machine men but you think they'd have learned from August/September when it was all "Get back to the office or we'll shift your job to India" then we had to shut the whole country down again. Such short sighted idiocy and I'd be furious if we opened up too soon only to lock down again. As I keep saying, let's just beat it this time.
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
Quite a lot of the public don't realise the extent of information available in the public domain. I've got Peston muted on twitter as he posts so much utter drivel and it has such a wide reach
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
End of 2021 is maybe not entirely stupid. Get everyone done.UK's Covid R rate now falls below 1 in EVERY region
Department of Health bosses declared another 15,144 coronavirus infections - down almost 21 per cent in a week, meaning 4million Britons have tested positive since the pandemic began.
This scaremongering is really really annoying me now. Quite clearly this article is written to be reactionary.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
If few people are at risk of hospitalisation really why would this be necessary?
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
Disease for some, mutation for others.
Does it hurt to wear a mask and talk to people from two metres plus away? It's not a big ask to finish it off and finish it down.
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
Got to say, my natural distance when talking to people is two metres plus, anyway...
Who wants their space invaded, regardless?
Who wants their space invaded, regardless?
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
I don’t enjoy either of them and want to teach properly. No thanks if neither I nor anyone I teach nor their parents is at risk of serious illness.
Liquid Gold
Well-Known Member
I think we should drop compulsory mask wearing once we've got on top of it but I hope we become more considerate and start wearing them when we feel under the weather so we're not passing on illnesses for no reason.
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
Well I won't enjoy being told to fend for myself until I've had a vaccine, with everybody in my face all the time because they don't like the imposition.
We're not talking that long extra if it's autumn/ end of year.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
You won’t be far behind Group 9. Sorry NW, will agree to disagree on this one
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
Far enough.
If we're talking mental health issues, having seen people my age and below get seriously ill (but they're not on the death stats), having people dismiss certain ailments such as underlying health conditions as not worth bothering about (great, I'll be justification for a stastic, but not enough to get up the queue), and being just the wrong side of an arbitrary cut-off line, I hardly think a bit of consideration for a couple of extra months is asking too much, really, rather than a desire to cut me, and people like me, off.
robbiekeane
Well-Known Member
I know right. It’s actually really changed my view on personal space and hygiene matters. Kinda gross that we are inhaling each other’s droplets all the time lol
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
Oh and while we're at it. Friend of mine's Dad died from Covid yesterday. Yeah but he's old, yeah but he had underlying conditions.
He also had a fall and caught Covid at the hospital where he was taken.
Now *that's* why measures are put in place in hospitals that mean some people aren't getting appointments for other illnesses as quickly as would be ideal, so that ends up being the exception rather than the rule.
Hospitals are still generally safe places all things considered, and that's a good thing...
He also had a fall and caught Covid at the hospital where he was taken.
Now *that's* why measures are put in place in hospitals that mean some people aren't getting appointments for other illnesses as quickly as would be ideal, so that ends up being the exception rather than the rule.
Hospitals are still generally safe places all things considered, and that's a good thing...
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
As someone of 30 but also overweight I will still be near the back of the vaccine queue, I just don't see until the autumn as necessary based on the rate at which we're getting through the jabs.