Ccfcisparks
Well-Known Member
In all seriousness if you can’t understand the information and insight xG provides I’m gonna assume you are slightly slow.
Because some on here bum XG (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Saddlebrains
- Start date
Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
It is though poor and dodgy information served up at best. It doesn't even give you the fraction of the information you need.
I always like to share ideas on here, have a look at Chess piece relative value - Wikipedia and then Centipawns - Chessprogramming wiki which is what xG is trying to emulate
There is no comparison. if you think there is then I do have a bridge for sale
I always like to share ideas on here, have a look at Chess piece relative value - Wikipedia and then Centipawns - Chessprogramming wiki which is what xG is trying to emulate
There is no comparison. if you think there is then I do have a bridge for sale
Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
This doesn't mean xG hasnt been looked at, at Lichess, and someone has tried to quatify it.
Edit: If anyone doesn't know Lichess, in my opinion, it is the gold standard.
Edit: If anyone doesn't know Lichess, in my opinion, it is the gold standard.
letsallsingtogether
Well-Known Member
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
This doesn't mean xG hasnt been looked at, at Lichess, and someone has tried to quatify it.
Edit: If anyone doesn't know Lichess, in my opinion, it is the gold standard.
You simply can’t compare chess to any sport on a statistical level. The number of possible game states in football is infinitely bigger than a chessboard.
letsallsingtogether
Well-Known Member
In all seriousness if you cant tell how a team is playing by yourself better start watching tiddly winks.
skybluecam
Well-Known Member
I can’t for the life of me understand why people actively dislike advanced stats like xg.
At this point I automatically assume it’s an intelligence issue.
At this point I automatically assume it’s an intelligence issue.
Unfortunately people will criticise what they can’t understand
robbiekeane
Well-Known Member
Tell me you don’t understand statistics without telling me you don’t understand statistics
robbiekeane
Well-Known Member
Correct
robbiekeane
Well-Known Member
A linear regression on the current championship standings vs current xG has an R squared value of 0.73. So 73% of the variation in league positions can be explained by the xG measure, which means statistically theres a strong correlation between a team’s xG and league position.
Y = 38.635 - 0.741 X
…so, in other words, the expected improvement in league position for each additional expected goal is approximately 0.741.
Thanks for coming
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
Of course sometimes statistics are used and embraced by people who don't understand statistics, and that can create a false inmpression disguised as FACT
Cally Fedora
Well-Known Member
Not being funny but no-one knows how a game will go before it starts and everyone knows how it went afterwards. Stats are just fluff.
robbiekeane
Well-Known Member
Saddlebrains
Well-Known Member
Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
Let's get this afternoon's game out of the way first, scckmee
Edit:- I hope you know Scala
Edit:- I hope you know Scala
Get your up and the prediction for the next game please.Let's get this afternoon's game out of the way first, scckmee
Edit:- I hope you know Scala
San Francisco
Well-Known Member
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
When you discuss a match with anybody who's attended, they'll usually say that something like "we had the better of the game" xG is just the statistical representation of that statement.
Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
I won’t argue with your weeks of football experience
Evo1883
Well-Known Member
Fucking mental , imagine bumming that
Evo1883
Well-Known Member
Ofcourse but thats not the only way football coaches and managers use data these days ..it's not 1985
Evo1883
Well-Known Member
stupot07
Well-Known Member
Not according to sporting life
Sheffield Wed vs Coventry - Stats - Football - Sporting Life
Get the form, statistics, line ups and live commentary for Sheffield Wed vs Coventry
www.sportinglife.com
Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
Frostie
Well-Known Member
The whole point of xG is to be utilised over a period of time, the longer the better really to analyse. Single game xG & single chance xG will always be massively flawed.
i.e. one team having a penalty or very high probability chance but little else vs an opponent having lots of lower probability chances. Also, biggest factor would be game state, i.e. a team taking an early lead & then sitting back will usually result in the opponent amassing more chances, even if not particularly good ones. Again though, over a long enough period of time there is obvious merit to them & we can start to see trends emerging.
i.e. one team having a penalty or very high probability chance but little else vs an opponent having lots of lower probability chances. Also, biggest factor would be game state, i.e. a team taking an early lead & then sitting back will usually result in the opponent amassing more chances, even if not particularly good ones. Again though, over a long enough period of time there is obvious merit to them & we can start to see trends emerging.
Evo1883
Well-Known Member
Fair enough let's use this .. sheaf won't have had a high probability of scoring from where he did , great goal which I imagine keeps our XG slightly lower than it could be ..Not according to sporting life
Sheffield Wed vs Coventry - Stats - Football - Sporting Life
Get the form, statistics, line ups and live commentary for Sheffield Wed vs Coventry
Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
Based on what I watched Wednesday did have a couple moments in our 6 yard box , the pitch hampered us but ultimately we took our chances and they didn't
thekidfromstrettoncamp
Well-Known Member
Saw some pundit on Sky predicted Palace would beat Arsenal he hadn't used xg.
stupot07
Well-Known Member
The league table is always the best barometer of where teams are.
Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
SkyBlueSoul
Well-Known Member
Evo1883
Well-Known Member
Well they are on face value , but again we will use Preston early season .. their management team were surely concerned that their luck might run out after creating next to nothing but winning matches , eventually it did run out and they're dropping slowly but surely
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Obviously. If you’re a football manager and you set up your tactics, you need to use lots of data to establish if performance is where it needs to be.
We were underperforming on xG earlier in the season which would’ve suggested our tactics didn’t require any root and branch changes. So MR could crack on and tweak personnel and formation changes to get us to where we are today.
Which, funnily enough, is in line with our xG performance.
TomRad85
Well-Known Member
Absolute shithouse team. We have to beat them at home surely.
Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
stupot07
Well-Known Member
Whilst we missed some chances early on, we were gifting at least 1 clear cut chance to the opposition every game which was often a better quality chance than the ones we created. So we had xG based on lots of low quality chances, where opposition had lower xG but based on 2-3 really high quality must score chances.
To be fair, it took Fadz bereavement which took him out the side, and allowed Robins completely change the shape and tactics. I'm not sure he would have made the tactical switch so quickly had that not happened.
People will point to goals scored but 6 clean sheets and just 9 goals conceded in 13 games compared to 21 goals conceded and only 3 clean sheets in the previous 15 league games, has been the biggest difference.
Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk