Do you want to discuss boring politics? (40 Viewers)

[MalcSB]

Bit of a blinkered view. For starters about 40% of the people claiming UC are working so that begs the question why are wages so shit people need to claim UC in the first place. If we distributed wealth better fewer families would be on UC in the first place. Secondly what makes you think that people with 1 or 2 kids can afford them? We’ve just been through a period of hyperinflation which followed an even longer period of wage stagnation and regression in real terms. Thirdly there’s the perspective of encouraging people to have more children to counter the reliance on immigration to make up the gap in available workers, skilled and unskilled. We have a massively declining birth rate in the UK, in part because people are only having the children that they can afford, or at least afford at that moment in time. We should be encouraging larger families, especially if you’re anti immigration. Paying UC to encourage people to have more than 2 children should seen as an investment in the UK. That’s not the mentality that’s been drummed into us though, “our” mentality is to go straight to scroungers, a drain on resources.

Do you think what has happened lately is hyperinflation? Should look back to the mid 70’s.

 

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[MalcSB]

Your line of argument might work if previous public sector pay awards had been linked to the rate of inflation. They weren't. Something above inflation now will go some small way to repairing the gradual erosion over time of those employee's remuneration but there's a fuckong big delta all the same.

Yes, public sector pay awards have been below inflation, including zero for a number of years. These above inflation awards, however deserved they may be, are bound to end up being viewed as a starting point for the private sector. That will be inflationary.

 

[Razzle Dazzle Dean Gordon]

Yes, public sector pay awards have been below inflation, including zero for a number of years. These above inflation awards, however deserved they may be, are bound to end up being viewed as a starting point for the private sector. That will be inflationary.

Are you saying the public sector should forever receive below inflationary payrises then? Because otherwise the private sector will use that as their starting position?

 

[Nuskyblue]

Berk is a much underused derogatory description these days

Berkshire hunt = c**t

Lovely stuff

 

[Diogenes]

I think they’ve been mainly caused by Brexit though, replacing bureaucrats in Brussels with bureaucrats in the UK and to do the extra bureaucracy caused by Brexit.

After the 2010 spending review we lost over a 100K civil servants right up to 2016. We’ve not necessarily been reinstating the jobs lost to austerity.

There’s also no measurable loss in productivity at the HMRC through working from home. Whatever issues HMRC is having there’s no evidence that it’s due to WFH. Even the Tories couldn’t fudge the figures to prove it regardless of what the likes of Rees-Mogg were claiming while in government. The official figure is 57% of HMRC staff by the way, it also doesn’t mean that they never go into the office, it actually means that they go in 3 days a week and WFH the other 2.

Not wanting to dox myself but where I work productivity has shot through the roof since WFH. People are able to get things done without the distractions and meaningless chatter of the office.

Since the 60% mandate came in sickness has shot up from around 0% to 15% and we've lost 6 experienced quality colleagues who have moved onto better things with more flexible working.

 

[Jamesimus]

Not wanting to dox myself but where I work productivity has shot through the roof since WFH. People are able to get things done without the distractions and meaningless chatter of the office.

Since the 60% mandate came in sickness has shot up from around 0% to 15% and we've lost 6 experienced quality colleagues who have moved onto better things with more flexible working.

My partner says she gets loads more done when working from home and has always tried to push for it when in more reluctant work places.

For a lot of people there’s more distractions in an office space and more opportunities for endless meetings.

 

[Grendel]

Are you saying the public sector should forever receive below inflationary payrises then? Because otherwise the private sector will use that as their starting position?

The manifesto budgeted for inflation only so it creates a bigger hole in a huge deficit. Someone will pay for it

 

[Razzle Dazzle Dean Gordon]

The manifesto budgeted for inflation only so it creates a bigger hole in a huge deficit. Someone will pay for it

A position i may be more supportive of if the past 14 years hadnt been a succession of supposed reasons that 'pay restraint' in the public sector were a necessity. You're correct that someone will pay for it, but the public sector has been told to carry the can for as long as i can recall now, at some point it should change.

This is all without even going into the fact that public sector workers are also tax payers and that pay rises for them have been argued by many to be useful contributors to economic growth.

 

[Grendel]

A position i may be more supportive of if the past 14 years hadnt been a succession of supposed reasons that 'pay restraint' in the public sector were a necessity. You're correct that someone will pay for it, but the public sector has been told to carry the can for as long as i can recall now, at some point it should change.

This is all without even going into the fact that public sector workers are also tax payers and that pay rises for them have been argued by many to be useful contributors to economic growth.

The Labour government budgeted for 2% and that was what they were willing to pay

 

[Diogenes]

My partner says she gets loads more done when working from home and has always tried to push for it when in more reluctant work places.

For a lot of people there’s more distractions in an office space and more opportunities for endless meetings.

If I have a lot on, I avoid going into the office as it's impossible to get much done. You can't even book meeting rooms to hold meetings when you are in. Plus not everyone works from the same office so sometimes you literally are going into te office to have a meeting on teams that you could have done at home.

If the government were serious about the green agenda they would consider the excess commutting that could be avoided by more wfh, as well as the opportunities to downsize the government estate which is ginormous and costs the taxpayer hundreds of millions every year.

 

[Razzle Dazzle Dean Gordon]

The Labour government budgeted for 2% and that was what they were willing to pay

And now they appear to have shifted their position and i'm happy they have done so. It will cost the country less on balance over time in my opinion.

 

[chiefdave]

Not wanting to dox myself but where I work productivity has shot through the roof since WFH. People are able to get things done without the distractions and meaningless chatter of the office.

Since the 60% mandate came in sickness has shot up from around 0% to 15% and we've lost 6 experienced quality colleagues who have moved onto better things with more flexible working.

I worked at a company where pre-covid I often worked from home as I was the only person based in the midlands. My productivity was regularly far higher than people who went into the office every day. Then when covid hit and everyone was working from home productivity went through the roof. So much so that the office is now only open Tuesday & Wednesday and that's entirely optional. the downside is they realised they could make about 50% of the staff redundant, fortunately not me.

Since then I've moved to a new firm who insist on 5 days a week in the office. Productivity is appalling. People try and keep up by working ever longer hours but that leads to burn out and high staff turnover. There's only one person who has stayed more than a year.

Obviously you can't do it for every job but we really are at a point now where people will just happily ignore the evidence because they think they know better.

 

[MalcSB]

Are you saying the public sector should forever receive below inflationary payrises then? Because otherwise the private sector will use that as their starting position?

No, I’m not. I spent my entire working life (except for 15 months) in the NHS so I have experienced the low and zero pay rises. The Tories ignored so called independent pay review bodies for many years so this could be considered a special case catch up. However, we both know that it will be used as leverage by other unions who won’t accept it as a special case.

Still, if it causes high inflation and subsequently high interest rates so be it. Just don’t complain about the impact in 12 months.

 

[MalcSB]

The manifesto budgeted for inflation only so it creates a bigger hole in a huge deficit. Someone will pay for it

Pensioners are already.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Are you saying the public sector should forever receive below inflationary payrises then? Because otherwise the private sector will use that as their starting position?

Everybody needs a pay rise, the idea it is automatically inflationary when demand is as weak as it is is rubbish.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

It’s a bit different, the Nvidia staff benefitted from share schemes that made many millionaires. Their hard work and productivity ultimately helped increase the value of the company and therefore they were highly incentivised as they benefitted personally

Productivity in the public sector is down 7% from pre pandemic levels. I’m guessing this will be for a variety of reasons like ill health, strikes etc as well as possibly WFH. ultimately in large organisations (private and public) where it’s hard to monitor specific tasks etc certain people can and will hide more when WFH. It’s the reason why many large private organisations have pushed for return to the office. This just wouldn’t happen if productivity was as high/higher than pre pandemic

FWIW I think flexible working is a good thing overall. However, I do think 100% WFH in certain roles and/or for certain people isn’t.

We need more Co-Op's/ employee owned companies to give that incentive.

 

[Razzle Dazzle Dean Gordon]

No, I’m not. I spent my entire working life (except for 15 months) in the NHS so I have experienced the low and zero pay rises. The Tories ignored so called independent pay review bodies for many years so this could be considered a special case catch up. However, we both know that it will be used as leverage by other unions who won’t accept it as a special case.

Still, if it causes high inflation and subsequently high interest rates so be it. Just don’t complain about the impact in 12 months.

I'm not sure i follow if i'm honest. You say 'no' but then end by saying any public sector payrises will cause further inflation and higher interest rates....the only way to avoid this would be to keep payrises below inflation indefinitely. Inflation is influenced by far more factors than just payrises and private sector wage growth already outstrips it from what i've read.

 

[MalcSB]

I'm not sure i follow if i'm honest. You say 'no' but then end by saying any public sector payrises will cause further inflation and higher interest rates....the only way to avoid this would be to keep payrises below inflation indefinitely. Inflation is influenced by far more factors than just payrises and private sector wage growth already outstrips it from what i've read.

I didn’t say public sector pay rises would cause further inflation and higher interest rates.

 

[Razzle Dazzle Dean Gordon]

I didn’t say public sector pay rises would cause further inflation and higher interest rates.

No, fair enough, you didn't and i've read your post again. I do reserve the right to complain about inflation and interest rates though, unless it's proven to be those payrises driving it

 

[MalcSB]

So that c**t Reeves has scrapped the social care cap. Evidence of more Labour lies during the election.

Streeting insists Labour will cap adult social care costs despite pledge not appearing in party manifesto

morningstaronline.co.uk

 

[MalcSB]

I worked at a company where pre-covid I often worked from home as I was the only person based in the midlands. My productivity was regularly far higher than people who went into the office every day. Then when covid hit and everyone was working from home productivity went through the roof. So much so that the office is now only open Tuesday & Wednesday and that's entirely optional. the downside is they realised they could make about 50% of the staff redundant, fortunately not me.

Since then I've moved to a new firm who insist on 5 days a week in the office. Productivity is appalling. People try and keep up by working ever longer hours but that leads to burn out and high staff turnover. There's only one person who has stayed more than a year.

Obviously you can't do it for every job but we really are at a point now where people will just happily ignore the evidence because they think they know better.

What’s gone wrong at HMRC then? Call answering time nearly 5 times that before Covid / WFH.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Everybody needs a pay rise, the idea it is automatically inflationary when demand is as weak as it is is rubbish.

Agreed it’s not automatic but it is one of the usual components of secondary inflation. Demand has dropped and so has goods inflation but services inflation is still high (5.7%) and wage inflation has remained relatively high. We’re a service led economy so more people orientated so higher wages could keep inflation elevated for longer as they play a larger part in our economy (and labour market is tight, although finally loosening)

I don’t think public sector wage rises are likely to be a major cause of re-inflation here though and also believe BoE should be cutting rates this week.

If I was Reeves I would’ve been saying you can forget about inflation/above inflation pay rises in future unless productivity improves though. At least that way it’s up to everyone to help/drive improvements over the next 12 months

 

[shmmeee]

Agreed it’s not automatic but it is one of the usual components of secondary inflation. Demand has dropped and so has goods inflation but services inflation is still high (5.7%) and wage inflation has remained relatively high. We’re a service led economy so more people orientated so higher wages could keep inflation elevated for longer as they play a larger part in our economy (and labour market is tight, although finally loosening)

I don’t think public sector wage rises are likely to be a major cause of re-inflation here though and also believe BoE should be cutting rates this week.

If I was Reeves I would’ve been saying you can forget about inflation/above inflation pay rises in future unless productivity improves though. At least that way it’s up to everyone to help/drive improvements over the next 12 months

Productivity improves how? How is a teacher or doctor supposed to improve productivity when most of their blockers are as a result of lack of capital spend?

 

[MalcSB]

Agreed it’s not automatic but it is one of the usual components of secondary inflation. Demand has dropped and so has goods inflation but services inflation is still high (5.7%) and wage inflation has remained relatively high. We’re a service led economy so more people orientated so higher wages could keep inflation elevated for longer as they play a larger part in our economy (and labour market is tight, although finally loosening)

I don’t think public sector wage rises are likely to be a major cause of re-inflation here though and also believe BoE should be cutting rates this week.

If I was Reeves I would’ve been saying you can forget about inflation/above inflation pay rises in future unless productivity improves though. At least that way it’s up to everyone to help/drive improvements over the next 12 months

It’s not the public sector pay rises that would be the cause of re-inflation per se. It’s them being used as a start point by unions in other sectors.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Productivity improves how? How is a teacher or doctor supposed to improve productivity when most of their blockers are as a result of lack of capital spend?

Its impossible to say without knowing where the problems lie but as there’s been a 7% drop since the pandemic somethings not right. As I mentioned yesterday I’d imagine it’s been impacted by things like strikes, illness and WFH (for some). If these don’t improve after decent pay rises we’re fucked

Hunt had highlighted something like £3bn investment to help drive productivity improvements, not sure if reeves is keeping this spending, presume so

 

[shmmeee]

Everyone in public services knows why productivity is low: you’re asked to do more with less.

I’ve got a personal training budget in the private sector larger than any departmental budget I managed as a HoD in schools. I complain cos my MacBook is three years old, as a teacher I begged for old PCs for the classroom. All public services are dealing with social and mental health issues which are expensive and time consuming and not strictly their remit.

Also looking at this for ~40% of public sector GDP output is fixed as input and is constant so the whole public sector productivity thing seems like a paper thin scam to justify suppressing wages.

Sources and methods for public service productivity estimates - Office for National Statistics

Sources and methods information for the Public service productivity: total, UK publication, detailing the main concepts, output and inputs measures by service area.

www.ons.gov.uk

 

[CCFCSteve]

It’s not the public sector pay rises that would be the cause of re-inflation per se. It’s them being used as a start point by unions in other sectors.

The private sector will be driven more by tightness of labour market (is there limited amount of workers and large number of vacancies). Vacancies are dropping. Also if a business isn’t making large enough profits they can’t pay employees above inflation pay rises

Soon find out anyway

 

[torchomatic]

Fantastic - that'll help put the heating on for people won't it?

No, doesn't mean they should get away with it though.

 

[shmmeee]

Fantastic - that'll help put the heating on for people won't it?

Didn’t expect to find you here stanning taxpayer handouts for millionaires

 

[MalcSB]

Everyone in public services knows why productivity is low: you’re asked to do more with less.

I’ve got a personal training budget in the private sector larger than any departmental budget I managed as a HoD in schools. I complain cos my MacBook is three years old, as a teacher I begged for old PCs for the classroom. All public services are dealing with social and mental health issues which are expensive and time consuming and not strictly their remit.

Also looking at this for ~40% of public sector GDP output is fixed as input and is constant so the whole public sector productivity thing seems like a paper thin scam to justify suppressing wages.

Sources and methods for public service productivity estimates - Office for National Statistics

Sources and methods information for the Public service productivity: total, UK publication, detailing the main concepts, output and inputs measures by service area.

www.ons.gov.uk

Support services were typically targets for Cost Improvement Programmes, this can mean for example that expensive resource is standing idle for lack of a porter to move a patient.

Insufficient ICU beds means that a carefully constructed and enormously expensive team of doctors and theatre staff can be gathered for a hugely complex surgical procedure, only to be stood down at zero notice because the required ICU bed has been taken by an emergency admission.

Just two examples.

Im not entirely sure how the increased complexity of treatments is taken account of, if at all, in traditional measures of productivity. Huge sums are spent on “commissioning” which could otherwise be spent on patient care rather than counting the beans on one side and challenging the number of beans counted on the other. I could go on.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Everyone in public services knows why productivity is low: you’re asked to do more with less.

I’ve got a personal training budget in the private sector larger than any departmental budget I managed as a HoD in schools. I complain cos my MacBook is three years old, as a teacher I begged for old PCs for the classroom. All public services are dealing with social and mental health issues which are expensive and time consuming and not strictly their remit.

Also looking at this for ~40% of public sector GDP output is fixed as input and is constant so the whole public sector productivity thing seems like a paper thin scam to justify suppressing wages.

Sources and methods for public service productivity estimates - Office for National Statistics

Sources and methods information for the Public service productivity: total, UK publication, detailing the main concepts, output and inputs measures by service area.

www.ons.gov.uk

These are ONS and IFS numbers not mine. Productivity was rising pre covid something has happened since. Public sector has received above inflation rises, i haven’t objected to this. I’ve just said in future you can’t continue with reducing productivity and higher than inflation payrises.

As I also said, hunt put aside £4bn to help improve public sector productivity (it was 3.4bn in nhs). I presume Reeves has kept this so why shouldn’t improvements be asked for ?

 

[CCFCSteve]

Support services were typically targets for Cost Improvement Programmes, this can mean for example that expensive resource is standing idle for lack of a porter to move a patient.

Insufficient ICU beds means that a carefully constructed and enormously expensive team of doctors and theatre staff can be gathered for a hugely complex surgical procedure, only to be stood down at zero notice because the required ICU bed has been taken by an emergency admission.

Just two examples.

Im not entirely sure how the increased complexity of treatments is taken account of, if at all, in traditional measures of productivity. Huge sums are spent on “commissioning” which could otherwise be spent on patient care rather than counting the beans on one side and challenging the number of beans counted on the other. I could go on.

Then there’s basics like processes in hospitals but it’s all been discussed before. We’ve now got more docs and nurses but something like 15% beds blocked by people who should be released/in social care. I presume that in itself causes a massive negative productivity impact

I might be wrong but there needs to be more thought in where money is spent and focussed and yes, some additional investment. I’m not having it that there can’t be any improvements though

 

[shmmeee]

These are ONS and IFS numbers not mine. Productivity was rising pre covid something has happened since. Public sector has received above inflation rises, i haven’t objected to this. I’ve just said in future you can’t continue with reducing productivity and higher than inflation payrises.

As I also said, hunt put aside £4bn to help improve public sector productivity (it was 3.4bn in nhs). I presume Reeves has kept this so why shouldn’t improvements be asked for ?

Some of it is outcome based. But take education. GCSE results go into the calculation. We’ve just nuked all expected progress with lockdown, and got a behaviour crisis to boot. What can teachers do with that? Same in health, huge increase in sickness and staff absence and aftershocks from the pandemic.

The drivers and outputs are just totally different and not in control on a day to day basis. I can decide to write more code today, I couldnt decide my class was going to get better GCSEs today, huge amounts of that were locked in before they ever met me. I just don’t think GDP makes sense for public services, which often operate over huge timescales with output measured in the businesses around them. You don’t expect an instant return on EYFS for example, you have no idea on the economic impact a nursery worker had until that baby is in their 20s.

Anyone in public services will tell you the issues and their structural and resources. Old equipment crapping out, dealing with unresolved impacts of social issues, crap pay meaning your hiring pool is limited. The fact it’s gone down after a huge social shock like Covid shouldn’t be a surprise.

 

[MalcSB]

Then there’s basics like processes in hospitals but it’s all been discussed before. We’ve now got more docs and nurses but something like 15% beds blocked by people who should be released/in social care. I presume that in itself causes a massive negative productivity impact

I might be wrong but there needs to be more thought in where money is spent and focussed and yes, some additional investment. I’m not having it that there can’t be any improvements though

Bed blocking will have an impact and that demonstrates itself in things like A&E waits and Ambulance response times.

During Covid, lots of procedures and processes were changed to reduce the potential for hospital acquired infections. This did slow down throughput in some areas and these may still be in place - it’s hard to argue against continuing to prevent people getting ill because they have attended hospital.

Im sure there will be lots of reasons, the strikes will have contributed.

 

[shmmeee]

Something I often ask leaders when putting together metrics is “what action would you take if this number changed?” If your answer is “I’d withhold pay from workers until the number went up”, I’d argue you’ve not got the most useful metric for impacting change in your business.