More xG Stuff (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter edgy
- Start date
SonofErnie
Well-Known Member
Maybe my eyes are telling a different story, but I’m just not seeing the abundance of clear cut chances we are supposed to be creating. Glaring defensive errors on the other hand are clear and obvious.
PUSB-We_are_going_up
Well-Known Member
If we start getting clean sheets or learning how to defend a lead we’ll start winning games
Looking at the graphic, our xG for should be around 40 (currently 34) and our xG against should be 27ish (currently 37), so it points towards us conceding cheap goals, which when you look back at some of the howlers we've had this year is very apparent! There are some games as well where we were heavily in favour in terms of xG vs xGA but we ended up losing. Take West Brom away, our xG was 2.2 and our xGA was 0.5 - and we lost 2-0!
Saddlebrains
Well-Known Member
How many points do we get given for Xg again?
Oh that's it 0
Pathetic obsession with it the last couple of seasons
Oh that's it 0
Pathetic obsession with it the last couple of seasons
mmttww
Well-Known Member
SkyBlueSteve81
Active Member
As a metric to look at more than just the end score it can be helpful when judging a teams overall performance. However the only one that actually matters is the points column in the league table. Having fabulous xG and xGA shows that we aren't a million miles away from getting decent results but it won't count for anything if we don't put points on the board.
I'd rather be winning games 1-0 with a poor xG than have a high xG and get turned over 0-1.
I'd rather be winning games 1-0 with a poor xG than have a high xG and get turned over 0-1.
I've decide I'm going to trawl through our highlights from this year and piece together the high xG chances we've misses this season into a compilation. Please leave below any suggestions (Slow day at work).
edgy
Well-Known Member
TomS91
Well-Known Member
BTA at Norwich. There were 5 missed v Cardiff. That's a strong start to your compilation.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
The rest of the top of that list if the top of the league though. Same as it’s the best strikers at the top of the individual leagues.
Frostie
Well-Known Member
Opta
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
It's pretty obvious that it's a good barometer of performance levels
Saddlebrains
Well-Known Member
Yea clearly, we're Barcelona according to that metric yet languish in 16th place
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
We're clearly an exception because the teams placed similarly to us are all in the top half of the table
SBAndy
Well-Known Member
On this, Bassette ranks 5th on the ‘xG per 90’ metric. That came as a surprise.
JimmyHillsbeard
Well-Known Member
Anyone see Arsenal - Man United in the cup? Xg was something like 3- 0.5 to Arsenal. No surprise that they didn’t win as not taking the good opportunities they create is one of their chief characteristics.
At what point do we see XG as a symptom of our deficiencies rather than evidence that it will all come good in the end.
At what point do we see XG as a symptom of our deficiencies rather than evidence that it will all come good in the end.
Alkhen
Well-Known Member
I don't really get your point? xG is just a way of measuring chances created not a mark of success or an achievement in its self, nobody is trying to say that. We've just been shite in front of goal.
Anyone can see we have missed a lot of gilt edged chances and would be a lot healthier position if we'd been more clinical. something to work on at least.
Saddlebrains
Well-Known Member
Everyone wanks over it. Anyone I see here or on socials trying to make out we aren't shite this season starts on about XG
The cold hard facts are we have won only 7 of 26 league games, and are 6 points off the bottom 3 having spent the most money we have spent in the clubs history
XG can get to fuck
Sky Blue Goblin
Well-Known Member
Can’t diagnose problems without looking at causes?
If we had none like at Millwall we know the problem was lacking creative players if we don’t score them the issue is our shooting or producing lots of low chances in games.
Don’t think it’s as important as some people make out but is a good tool as opposed to just shots as the quality isn’t measured.
On the graph I’d point out that’s way more a negative than a positive
The top clubs spend millions of pounds on it. Clearly they aren't just doing it for a laugh
mmttww
Well-Known Member
Haven't found that tag on Pornhub; I'll keep digging.
edgy
Well-Known Member
xG - Expected Gash
Seems like a pretty flawed stat to me. The only reason we look good on this is because we've had to chase so many games this season, which will always be conducive to producing a lot of xG if the opposition are sitting back defending a lead. Can barely think of any games we've drawn or lost this season where I've come away thinking we were the better side and deserved more.
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
Plymouth and Cardiff both have spent more time trailing than Cov yet sit in the bottom left quartile, I'd suggest your conclusion is flawed.
Great, i'll take that over the detailed analysis that underpins xG.
skybluecam
Well-Known Member
Just since Lampard's been here we've had both Cardiff games and West Brom where we easily created more opportunities and drew/lost through a combination of deflections, poor keeping and poor finishing.
skybluecam
Well-Known Member
xG is fairly well proven as a better predictor of future results than actual goals
That said, it's not the be all and end all. There's obviously things that don't factor in to xG that do contribute to performances/results. And I did read some quite compelling analysis that suggested a weighted average of 1/3 actual goals and 2/3 xG is an even better predictor.
I would argue anyone who has watched us can see that we are certainly a better team than our league position suggests.
Saddlebrains
Well-Known Member
I've got a season ticket and I think we are where we should be tbh
We leak goals, and miss gilt edged chances
SlowerThanPlatt
Well-Known Member
xG shagger
TomS91
Well-Known Member
You've literally just described the logical explanation of what is on that graph that you're dismissing.
False9
Well-Known Member
Correct which is what our xg stats suggest
Calista
Well-Known Member
The chart reinforces my feeling that our general play has been decent nearly all season (bar a small number of poor games or horrible halves). The problems have been in both penalty areas, which obviously translates into points being lost. I actually think we've had more than our fair share of bad luck too.
Most of the doom-laden talk on here (both before and after the change of manager) has been way over the top IMO. We've gone from upper mid table (the last couple of seasons) to lower mid table, which isn't disastrous. A few tweaks to the squad and we have the potential to be a very good side.
Most of the doom-laden talk on here (both before and after the change of manager) has been way over the top IMO. We've gone from upper mid table (the last couple of seasons) to lower mid table, which isn't disastrous. A few tweaks to the squad and we have the potential to be a very good side.
skybluecam
Well-Known Member
Historically bad goalkeeping too.
Statistically Brad Collins has had a terrible season, I flicked through the stats and over the last 5 seasons he's put in the worst keeping performance on average, excluding people who only played 1 or 2 games.
Thanks for telling me that we're better than the two worst teams in the league. Couldn't have worked that out without that precious data
Nuskyblue
Well-Known Member
The teams that make the most big chances miss the most big chances as a rule