Mowbray, League 1 and finance (10 Viewers)

[oldskyblue58]

I think most city fans are sitting waiting anxiously to see two things

- League 1 survival guaranteed
- whether Mowbray signs on for next season but preferably longer

Mowbray has proven that with one shrewd loan and proper management that there is potential for CCFC to be safe in L1 next season. He hasn't pointed to it but he has highlighted so much of what was wrong under the previous manager. To be successful we need him or a manager like him. Success has to be seen to be at least challenging all season at the right end of the league doesn't it?

For him to stay is going to take firm financial commitments from the owners. There I think is where the problem is going to be. The five point plan says that the club aims to be independent of the owners (SISU & ARVO). That means there is no more finance coming in via ARVO or the SISU investors it would seem. There are no assets to hang loans off. We are told the budgets for 2015/16 are set to enable the club to break even before interest charges. How then do they achieve all that and invest in the playing squad to a level that satisfies Mowbray?

Will income increase? - some of the FL income will but unless CCFC start winning regularly and playing better football than this last season matchday income will not. Many fans I think are waiting to see what happens before making their investment in 2015/16 some may well never return. Opportunities for creating or improving other incomes are there but this last years performance on that score by CCFC has been pretty shabby. Then the one thing that gave us a budget at all - player sales. Is there a potential player sale that would match the sale of Wilson last year, I don't see one as of now. Yes the likes of Maddison may well develop into saleable assets but that is not there now. But selling all the best players to survive brings disincentive to any manager - they may understand it but wont like it

BTW by looking at the accounts you can get a feel for the totals of players purchased or sold under SISU ownership. The net surplus has been applied to meet the day to day running costs. The "model" relies heavily on player sales to make ends meet

between February 2008 and 31 May 2014 (thats the only accounts available and therefore wont include the Wilson sale etc)

Purchases £7,769,542
Sales Est.£ 13,092,873

Surplus applied to day to day running costs (player wages, other wages, overheads etc) £5,323,331

So it would be reasonable to assume that selling players will remain integral to the 5 point plan for the club.

But if there is no new funding, there is no increase in income or maybe there is a decrease, the best players are to be sold as soon as possible simply for the club to survive then what is the attraction for someone like Mowbray? The rhetoric regarding the team might say we have a squad capable, it might say we have an upper quartile budget (but do we actually spend it?) but look at what else has been said and largely left unchallenged about the finances.

Yes the club needs more income streams, a new stadium might be a solution but I am not convinced because together with extra income it brings large extra cost too, but the problem is now not in 5 years time. If the club directors want to retain Mowbray (and most would agree we should) then they need to provide the financial backing to support a proper challenge by a balanced strong squad, supported by the relevant coaching staff and football networks, not to mention a salary package that meets a managers expectations (lets be honest he should be Championship or above not L1). All that takes a lot of money and brings with it the possibility of losses or failure not just longed for success. Will they take that risk, will they provide additional financial support......... we wait and see but to be honest I am not hopeful

If they do take the risk and we get promoted how can we stay there. In theory we could be Championship 2016/17, the mythical ground wont be built by then, we will need to renew the option at the Ricoh or move elsewhere. That just looks like 2017/18 back in L1 and potential further decline is likely. You see the undertakings given to Mowbray can not just be about 2015/16 can they. If the owners do not match the ambition of the manager to achieve at higher levels why does he stay? Do the owners want the club in the Championship or are we parked in L1?

On a different thought when does someone get held to account for the scouting network debacle. When does someone take responsibility for letting the scouting system crash especially when it is so crucial to the five point plan to identify young players with the right DNA and to bring them in to the academy we apparently fund at £1.25m each year. Again unless sorted properly then this must give Mowbray doubts and make it more costly to obtain his services going forward

Finally - have they actually started proper talks with him to retain his services. His contract runs out next weekend doesn't it? After which he is a free agent open to offers :thinking about:

 

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[matesx]

i cant concentrate long enough to read that but i bet its a good post

 

[Otis]

i cant concentrate long enough to read that but i bet its a good post

When Mrs. OSB asks Mr. OSB what he wants for dinner, this is the sort of reply she ends up getting.

 

[oldskyblue58]

being asked would be a novelty Otis :laugh: I generally get what the kids want

 

[Otis]

being asked would be a novelty Otis :laugh: I generally get what the kids want

An Xbox and some acne cream?

 

[Ashdown]

Yes it is a good post and with all the pertinent questions asked. Depressing reading though all told as the recent policies of the owners would suggest they will shy away from speculating a little extra to succeed, leaving Mowbray with a decision to make and the fans renewing ST's with another one !?....................Now where's that fecking Chinese billionaire when you need him ? I was told recently that the investment in Leicester from Thailand came as a result of the rich chaps son studying at a local university and persuading his Father.

 

[oldskyblue58]

Summary

Retaining Mowbray seen as essential by fans. Will require funding from somewhere. Unlikely to be by increased income. Player sales key to survival but we have none to sell at this time. Owners have indicated no more funding going forward. If we cant fund L1 properly then no chance of funding Championship. Do owners really want promotion? Who was responsible for the scouting network failure? Under SISU ownership club has made over 5m profit on player trading before adding in Wilson sale. What is said about team ambitions does not appear to be matched by what we know of finances. Will Mowbray stay? hope so but have they started negotiations yet with 1 week left on his contract?

that better ?

 

[torchomatic]

I wonder why we need all the income we can get?

Summary

Retaining Mowbray seen as essential by fans. Will require funding from somewhere. Unlikely to be by increased income. Player sales key to survival but we have none to sell at this time. Owners have indicated no more funding going forward. If we cant fund L1 properly then no chance of funding Championship. Do owners really want promotion? Who was responsible for the scouting network failure? Under SISU ownership club has made over 5m profit on player trading before adding in Wilson sale. What is said about team ambitions does not appear to be matched by what we know of finances. Will Mowbray stay? hope so but have they started negotiations yet with 1 week left on his contract?

that better ?

 

[oldskyblue58]

I wonder why the club isn't maximising it at the moment then?

 

[torchomatic]

Not a lot to maximise is there?

I wonder why the club isn't maximising it at the moment then?

 

[matesx]

yes thats better

thankyou

 

[AFCCOVENTRY]

Crowds will be even lower next season unless Mowbray is retained. That would be the 1st step in restoring some confidence with the fans and then followed by some proper signings to show intent of getting out of this league.

Of course many clubs in this league will rely on player sales. But this summer none of our perm players are really worth anything.

So an interesting end of season coming...

Will be make or break for a lot of fans.

 

[TheRoyalScam]

I think most city fans are sitting waiting anxiously to see two things

Another thought-provoking post from OSB58, our very own CCFC Finance Director, whose accountancy knowledge has helped me understand so much of the financial shenanigans over the years

OSB I agree just about 100% with you apart from the use of the word 'anxiously' - while SISU are here it's no good being 'anxious' about matters out of our control - to avoid stress Stay Calm Until Sisu Leave Our Club!

 

[fernandopartridge]

Not a lot to maximise is there?

In fairness, stocking the club shop would be a start.

What happened to ideas like a pie and pint with tickets? Now the club gains something from food & drink outlets this could be a consideration?

 

[Bill Glazier]

Good stuff as ever OSB, but wouldn't a successful promotion bring in a lot more income? Bigger crowds, more sales of shirts and presumably more TV money. The club would grow in size again and be able to afford better players - we just need a bit of seed funding to start with.

 

[Paxman II]

I think retaining TM is crucial if we want promotion. If we get promotion then the problem will be sustaining ourselves in the championship based largely on how well we do when we get there. I would hope owners would see the daylight and invest a little further should we make it up.

 

[stupot07]

Thought provoking post OSB. You hit several nails on the head and really shows why we're between a rock and a hard place at the minute.

Very depressing reading, and even more depressing when you consider our accommodation options.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk - so please excuse any spelling or grammar errors

 

[MusicDating]

I get the impression that it's a 'you get the fans in, then we'll provide the funds' offer to TM.

 

[mrtrench]

Some thoughts:

- If the team performs well then we can expect 25%+ increase in crowd income, especially as it gets into the sharp end of the season. And it won't be difficult to improve on this year's cup runs.

- I'd be interested to see the sales versus purchases numbers since we stopped paying fees to buy players. I doubt anything can replace that income presently. I agree there's no finished product to sell ATM but will not be surprised to see an unfinished product such as Madison go for £1m ish over the Summer. We know he is on several radars. I also expect Thomas to be courted at the end of next season - I like him.

- SISU will not invest any more. They need to start showing a return. Not that they have many options there anyway with Fair Play.
- Loans and frees are more than capable of getting us promoted. It would have been possible this year - one only has to look at the change in results since SP left to see that it was his management that was the problem - although I think his recruitment was also poor.

- I agree that there is an acute risk that TM will go. His success here will remind potential suitors of his ability. What we need is an unproven manager who proves himself. The Club tried that with SP but backed the wrong horse. Who's to say it won't get it right next time?

- The new stadium is a red herring. Not going to happen. I don't believe that the numbers stack up and neither do SISU really, which is why nothing has happened. It was all rhetoric.

- I don't see why we couldn't stay in the Championship with the right model. We don't have a cat in hell's chance of getting into and staying in the Premiership however.

- Nobody will admit to the scouting network debacle It's gone, we need to focus now on building it back up - the sell to survive model doesn't work without it at any level.

 

[phildownunder]

Excellent intro to thread. It all adds up to what may well be a gloomy outlook for the club.

Focussing on Mowbray. When the club sacked Pressley only a short way into that long contract, and then went out of their way to appoint Mowbray, it seemed that it could signal a change of intent by the owners. Then we found out that it was only until the end of the season, so now we just don`t know what it all meant.

It has been said that whether or not Mowbray stays will demonstrate the level of the owner`s commitment, but as I pointed out on a previous thread we don`t know what took place in the negotiations on his appointment or what the longer term intentions were on either side. In other words, if Mowbray goes we won`t really know whether that demonstrates the club`s lack of ambition or that Mowbray either never intended to stay any longer or that a better job opportunity has come up. His words so far are encouraging on this, but we can all remember Robins telling us he was here for "the long haul" not long before jumping ship.

IMO success or otherwise next season doesn`t hinge on whether Mowbray stays on or not, much as I hope he does. Look at the transformation of Bristol C. under Cotterill who I admit I always thought a pretty poor manager up until now. He has managed to put together a successful team in a relatively short time and I`m sure there are others out there who could do the same for City.

The key of course is whether the club backs the manager as Bristol did, and our recent history is not encouraging there I know. However I do think that this is a more important factor than looking at Mowbray`s future at the club as an all or nothing matter.

 

[Gazolba]

It all comes down to ... does a leopard change its spots? The answer is no. So expect Mowbray to leave and us be left with a weaker team next season. Highest earners will go and any academy 'starlet' worth a significant amount sold.

 

[skybluetony176]

It all comes down to ... does a leopard change its spots? The answer is no. So expect Mowbray to leave and us be left with a weaker team next season. Highest earners will go and any academy 'starlet' worth a significant amount sold.

I hope you're wrong but if you're right I think you're wrong about the significant amount. It will be any amount.

 

[oldskyblue58]

To answer a few points and perhaps pose further questions

the purchase and sale of players in recent years. These are from accounts to 31/05 each year

2012 - Purchase 994k Est Sales Proceeds £3.16m
2013 - Purchase 112k Est Sales Proceeds £1.80m
2014 - Purchase 158k Est sales proceeds £1.02m

We were told that Wilson went for 3m add to that Christie and add ons for Juke in 2015 accounts. On the other side there will be cancellation costs for the likes of Baker & McSheffery etc. Did we buy anyone?

So very much been selling capital assets to fund revenue costs in recent years. Trouble is there is little left in the parlour and that which is there has yet to ripen to any real degree

I would agree Mowbray isn't the only manager who could do the right job but he is the one in place at the moment and it is easier to retain than find. He has shown all the right attributes, others also could certainly but I think it is obvious that to make it work it has to be a manager that really can man manage and is backed by the owners financially. Cottrill at Bristol has done a great job at Bristol but he has been backed significantly by the owner financially

Crowds will increase with success certainly but in my opinion it wont improve the average for each game significantly until there is sustained success. The relationship with a lot of fans is fractured, many simply wont believe in the success so wont part with the money. Average this season 8500? I think it was said that break even is 11000 in current set up. so crowds have to increase significantly to break even let alone provide extra funding for the squad

Say we do get promoted, yes there will be a wave of optimism, yes crowds will increase (partly because of bigger away followings of the teams we would be playing), yes incomes will increase both match day and commercially. Fisher once said it was worth 5m. BUT so will costs increase particularly the wage costs. If we go up surely the object is to stay up? if so that will require investment in players the sufficient right quality of players will not be found in loans of U21's or freebies (yes some but not all). Also with increased cost the break even point is raised. At some point too the rent & ground costs would be increased

I do not believe in the new stadium at all at this point. I have seen nothing that persuades me that significant extra cost would not negate its benefit. Take for example the claim of 365 day income - it conveniently ignores the 365 day costs. Even if you just look at the pitch & stands - they would go from £100k ish per annum to having to maintain it 365 days of the year. How much does a team of groundsmen cost, how much is grass seed or fertiliser, how much does the maintenance equipment cost etc ?

What is the right model though - because I am having a little trouble seeing how they match "ambition" to the available finance

I do not have any faith in TF or SW to get this right. That's why I mentioned the scouting net work. At times it is portrayed that it is so or so's fault but bottom line is the two of them are absolutely aware of what is going on and control under JS's financial direction the decisions at CCFC. That has been the case for years but SW gets a far easier ride that TF or JS

 

[oldskyblue58]

summary

last three years to 31/05/14has seen est 5.9m proceeds from player sales
As Wilson and Christie came through the academy there is no capital cost to their sales - all profit in the accounts
there are no assets to sell for significant money any more
crowds increasing with a little success is not a given
crowds increasing past breakeven is even now a big ask
breakeven increases with promotion
promotion brings need for better players which cost more
the new ground still remains a fantasy to most
SW & TF are as bad (good?) as each other imo

 

[covcity4life]

i am sure sisu will back him.

they go on about getting ground ful and playing right way etc

i still think deep down they want to emulate swansea more than make a slight profit or tread water for a decade.

i could be wrong but think they will give mowbray a good squad to achiev epromotion with next season

 

[oldskyblue58]

cc4l for once I absolutely hope you are right........... time will tell what sisu are prepared to do

I don't see the fans owning part of the club though with the current owners like is the case at Swansea

 

[standupforcity]

i am sure sisu will back him.

they go on about getting ground ful and playing right way etc

i still think deep down they want to emulate swansea more than make a slight profit or tread water for a decade.

i could be wrong but think they will give mowbray a good squad to achiev epromotion with next season

I agree...but only because I think TM has the influence to make them see the light!

 

[oldskyblue58]

In fairness, stocking the club shop would be a start.

What happened to ideas like a pie and pint with tickets? Now the club gains something from food & drink outlets this could be a consideration?

Exactly that would be a start wouldn't it. But I still see knee jerk reaction rather than a plan to merchandise/promote the club. There are events etc they could put on, there are initiatives they could take. Don't sell cheap tickets to schools give them - would it cost the club anything more to fill more seats?. Exploit the fan base encourage allegiance for now and the future. There is plenty of talk about creating links with community or business but I see precious little of it. The club seems to piggy back it all on the back of the SBITC charity (who do a great job) but even they include a cost for match day tickets in their accounts. Think outside the box, think about what can be done, throw a small amount of funds at it (eg the shop). Make it work.

One thing this whole saga seems to have done is make most focus on the negatives, to focus on what can not be done, think up reasons to excuse poor performance or lack of thought/effort, to find a scapegoat to blame. The ethos at the club is never going to change on or off the pitch whilst that is allowed to be how we approach everything. Above all its costing CCFC valuable revenue.

 

[stevefloyd]

We need a manager who can buy cheap and them turn them into a profit, Presley was absolutely useless at this and ultimately paid the price for his own failures, Mowbray has brought in a few players and looks to be getting something out of them but all managers sometimes get a pig in a poke, look at Clough with Taylor, I think Taylor was the genius in spotting talent but Clough got more out of them, Clough wasn't the same without Taylor..
We need someone who can spot and nurture talent to put some money in the bank and if we happen upon a manager who can do this then its worth paying big money for them because its cost effective...after that ramble I am going for a lie down

 

[Ashdown]

It's really difficult to see past SISU messing this up but surely even they know now that the glut of income from ST sales will be reduced substantially if they don't bend over backwards to keep and support Mowbray. I only hope that if they do fuck it up, Mowbray comes out in the press and tells the truth and the facts about these incompetents ! It would make a pleasant change from everyone previously being metaphorically gagged !

 

[Noggin]

i am sure sisu will back him.

they go on about getting ground ful and playing right way etc

i still think deep down they want to emulate swansea more than make a slight profit or tread water for a decade.

i could be wrong but think they will give mowbray a good squad to achiev epromotion with next season

I think OSB's point (correct me if I'm wrong mate) really is that it's not actually possible for sisu to back him under the status quo (nore unfortunately under any reasonably likely change to the status quo)

 

[Godiva]

I wonder why the club isn't maximising it at the moment then?

Maybe they need help?
Why don't we produce a list of suggestions?
I am sure there are a few creative thinkers on this board who can come up with usable ideas. Weed out the 90% unserious remarks and send the rest to the club.

 

[oldskyblue58]

I think OSB's point (correct me if I'm wrong mate) really is that it's not actually possible for sisu to back him under the status quo (nore unfortunately under any reasonably likely change to the status quo)

No I agree. Whilst I hope they do back him properly it surely has to be at the expense of creating more debt (or pseudo debt of preference shares). They have said they don't want to fund extra debt. So its a rock and a hard place situation really. Now and in future it would seem. Of course they may have a plan..... ?

 

[Ashdown]

Funds need to be found to pay Mowbray and provide an average budget for the league with which he can put his own squad together. I would still mainly expect loans and younger players but he's already proved that you can change the whole dynamic of the team with improving the areas that are weak. It doesn't have to cost a fortune but the remodelling of the side has to begin in May/June and not late August or fans will just think 'here we go again'.

 

[Grendel]

I can't see him staying.