A realist in this time of gloom (1 Viewer)

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covboy1987

Well-Known Member
Being a realist we can and should either hit the top three or a play off place
Colchester away Tuesday - a tough game as they are just behind us and the hopeful the ending of the virus - We also still have a number of injuries we might lose this game - a point would be useful - get the FA cup out of the way as we will no doubt get beat - Get all the squad fit including Carl baker and we can go on a run as our squad looks decent
15 games to go and 45 points to play for it is possible to finish in the top three as this league is pretty crap - Teams like Stanley will not be there end of season Luton are having a few poor results notts county are falling like a stone - Lincoln are disappearing - it’s there for the taking any team from the top 12 can get a play off place which I think 70 to 75 points is the target
85 to 88 points could be a possibility for a top three - we have 50 points and need the following
35 - 38 points out of 45 for top three
20 - 25 points out of 45 for top seven finish
This is doable with our squad and experienced manager
We have beaten all of the so called top teams so have the ability
Interesting words from the manager of Stanley and Stanley supporters in the casino after beating us on Saturday
Coventry will be there at the end of the season
 
Otis

Otis

Well-Known Member
covboy1987 said:
Being a realist we can and should either hit the top three or a play off place
Colchester away Tuesday - a tough game as they are just behind us and the hopeful the ending of the virus - We also still have a number of injuries we might lose this game - a point would be useful - get the FA cup out of the way as we will no doubt get beat - Get all the squad fit including Carl baker and we can go on a run as our squad looks decent
15 games to go and 45 points to play for it is possible to finish in the top three as this league is pretty crap - Teams like Stanley will not be there end of season Luton are having a few poor results notts county are falling like a stone - Lincoln are disappearing - it’s there for the taking any team from the top 12 can get a play off place which I think 70 to 75 points is the target
85 to 88 points could be a possibility for a top three - we have 50 points and need the following
35 - 38 points out of 45 for top three
20 - 25 points out of 45 for top seven finish
This is doable with our squad and experienced manager
We have beaten all of the so called top teams so have the ability
Interesting words from the manager of Stanley and Stanley supporters in the casino after beating us on Saturday
Coventry will be there at the end of the season
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We haven't beaten all of the so called top teams though.

We lost to both Mansfield and Accrington and though we beat them once, also lost once against Exeter.

There's three teams in the top seven right there.
 
Alan Dugdales Moustache

Alan Dugdales Moustache

Well-Known Member
When was the last time we beat a team in the league at the Ricoh convincingly this season ?
 
westofrayne

westofrayne

Well-Known Member
Sorry mate but have to disagree with some of this.

Facts - 15 games to go 45 points available - can't disagree there.

But, can we go on a run of winning games (which we have struggled to do all season) from now to the end of the season ? I have my doubts. I think mid 70s points total will scrape into the playoffs, so we need to find 25 points from those 15 games.

With the injuries, we are going to struggle in the next 2-3 weeks, due to the games that have had to be rearranged due to the FA cup run we will be playing Sat /Tues quite a bit putting more pressure on a stretched squad.

Our remaining games:

Tuesday 13th February Colchester United Away - L
Saturday 24th February Mansfield Town Away - L
Tuesday 27th February Wycombe Wanderers Away - L
Saturday 3rd March Lincoln City Home - W
Saturday 10th March Barnet Home - W
Saturday 17th March Crewe Alexandra Away - D
Saturday 24th March Grimsby Town Home - D
Friday 30th March Newport County Away - L
Monday 2nd April Yeovil Town Home - W
Saturday 7th April Notts County Away - L
Saturday 14th April Crawley Town Away - D
Friday 20th April Stevenage Home - W
Saturday 28th April Cheltenham Town Away - D
Saturday 5th May Morecambe Home - W
TBC Luton Home (Depends if they have won promotion when we play them) - D

I can see a max of 20 points, leaving us 3-5 points short of the last playoff spot, this assumes Doyle is back soon, if he is out into March then I think we will struggle to pick up the 20 points.
 
Otis

Otis

Well-Known Member
westofrayne said:
Sorry mate but have to disagree with some of this.

Facts - 15 games to go 45 points available - can't disagree there.

But, can we go on a run of winning games (which we have struggled to do all season) from now to the end of the season ? I have my doubts. I think mid 70s points total will scrape into the playoffs, so we need to find 25 points from those 15 games.

With the injuries, we are going to struggle in the next 2-3 weeks, due to the games that have had to be rearranged due to the FA cup run we will be playing Sat /Tues quite a bit putting more pressure on a stretched squad.

Our remaining games:

Tuesday 13th February Colchester United Away - L
Saturday 24th February Mansfield Town Away - L
Tuesday 27th February Wycombe Wanderers Away - L
Saturday 3rd March Lincoln City Home - W
Saturday 10th March Barnet Home - W
Saturday 17th March Crewe Alexandra Away - D
Saturday 24th March Grimsby Town Home - D
Friday 30th March Newport County Away - L
Monday 2nd April Yeovil Town Home - W
Saturday 7th April Notts County Away - L
Saturday 14th April Crawley Town Away - D
Friday 20th April Stevenage Home - W
Saturday 28th April Cheltenham Town Away - D
Saturday 5th May Morecambe Home - W
TBC Luton Home (Depends if they have won promotion when we play them) - D

I can see a max of 20 points, leaving us 3-5 points short of the last playoff spot, this assumes Doyle is back soon, if he is out into March then I think we will struggle to pick up the 20 points.
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As I keep saying, we need an unbeaten run. Best we have had all season is just 4 games.

We need something along the lines of 7-8 games unbeaten to still be competing. Either that, or 3 or 4 wins in a row at some point.
 
pusbccfc

pusbccfc

Well-Known Member
Get Carl Baker in for the run in and then I will be a bit more confident. Goals and creativity from midfield.
 
oucho

oucho

Well-Known Member
Otis said:
As I keep saying, we need an unbeaten run. Best we have had all season is just 4 games.

We need something along the lines of 7-8 games unbeaten to still be competing. Either that, or 3 or 4 wins in a row at some point.
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The Ts and Cs in any investment vehicle will tell you "past performance is not necessarily a reliable indicator or guarantor of future performance", and quite right too. We've definitely got enough in the squad to get promoted and we're there or thereabouts at present. I don't know what everyone's worried about. Then again, if we don't go up or reach the play-offs, it's not the end of the world. There's always next time.
 
Otis

Otis

Well-Known Member
oucho said:
The Ts and Cs in any investment vehicle will tell you "past performance is not necessarily a reliable indicator or guarantor of future performance", and quite right too. We've definitely got enough in the squad to get promoted and we're there or thereabouts at present. I don't know what everyone's worried about. Then again, if we don't go up or reach the play-offs, it's not the end of the world. There's always next time.
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Oh yeah, of course. The old 'we'll be back' routine that has served us so well in the past! There's always next time! Yeah.

Relegated from the Premier, 'we'll be back.'

The season we finished 8th in the Championship, the next season we were 17th and the season after that 21st.

We finished 8th in League One. Next season . relegated.

I don't know what everyone's worried about either. It's not like we've hardly created a chance in the last two games, lost them both and played really poorly is it.

It's not like we have a poor away record.

Nowt to be worried about at all for sure.
 
clint van damme

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
Otis said:
As I keep saying, we need an unbeaten run. Best we have had all season is just 4 games.

We need something along the lines of 7-8 games unbeaten to still be competing. Either that, or 3 or 4 wins in a row at some point.
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I think we need 5 points absolute minimum from this run of 3 away games. Anything more would be great. Less, and I think we'll find ourselves with a mountain to climb although the fixtures in March don't look too tough but if we're too far behind I think it will hit us psychologically.
 
Otis

Otis

Well-Known Member
clint van damme said:
I think we need 5 points absolute minimum from this run of 3 away games. Anything more would be great. Less, and I think we'll find ourselves with a mountain to climb although the fixtures in March don't look too tough but if we're too far behind I think it will hit us psychologically.
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Exactly my thinking too. It can indeed have a psychological effect on players and you also have to remember that many of the 'lesser' clubs we will face may well be fighting for their survival down the other end of the table.

I see Barnet, bottom of the table, beat Notts County on Saturday. I know Notts are on a wobble, but still.

No easy games left for us even on paper.
 
steve82

steve82

Well-Known Member
pusbccfc said:
Get Carl Baker in for the run in and then I will be a bit more confident. Goals and creativity from midfield.
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Firstly please don't take this solely as a pop at you but the fascination in the fan base that Carl Baker is the right formula to fix the issues is dead. 15 games left and he's still stepping up his rehab and fitness work... a million miles away from being fit and not kicked a ball in months now.

Two things that bug me are get Baker in and should of kept Nazon. Ones injured the other said he's not staying and wanted a higher level of football despite MR asking him to stay.
 
oucho

oucho

Well-Known Member
Otis said:
Oh yeah, of course. The old 'we'll be back' routine that has served us so well in the past! There's always next time! Yeah.

Relegated from the Premier, 'we'll be back.'

The season we finished 8th in the Championship, the next season we were 17th and the season after that 21st.

We finished 8th in League One. Next season . relegated.

I don't know what everyone's worried about either. It's not like we've hardly created a chance in the last two games, lost them both and played really poorly is it.

It's not like we have a poor away record.

Nowt to be worried about at all for sure.
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We know we've fallen down the leagues, there's nothing new about that. Just because we might not go up this time, doesn't mean we can't strengthen for the future.

By the way, we do not have a poor away record, in case you we're being ironic. We've won 5 away already. I've sat through many seasons where we've not won that many away.
 
Otis

Otis

Well-Known Member
oucho said:
We know we've fallen down the leagues, there's nothing new about that. Just because we might not go up this time, doesn't mean we can't strengthen for the future.

By the way, we do not have a poor away record, in case you we're being ironic. We've won 5 away already. I've sat through many seasons where we've not won that many away.
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5 wins out of 15 matches.

Yes, of course lots of other seasons, but nearly always us midtable and lower and not challenging at the top.

If you are one of the best sides in the division surely you expect to win a lot more games.

We only have 5 wins out of 15 games and someone posted the away record table a week or so back and we are well down the league compared to many of the top 7 or 8 teams.
 
Otis

Otis

Well-Known Member
Otis said:
5 wins out of 15 matches.

Yes, of course lots of other seasons, but nearly always us midtable and lower and not challenging at the top.

If you are one of the best sides in the division surely you expect to win a lot more games.

We only have 5 wins out of 15 games and someone posted the away record table a week or so back and we are well down the league compared to many of the top 7 or 8 teams.
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Just looked and only Exeter out of the top teams are below us in the away table.

Top 4? Swindon, Luton, Wycombe, Accrington.
 
Otis

Otis

Well-Known Member
And to make sure I am not just manipulating the facts,

Home table top 4

Luton, Accrington, Notts County and Exeter. Mansfield are 5th. We are 6th.

So, we are 6th best at home and 12th best away. How is that going to get us into the playoffs?

Doesn't matter about other seasons, this season we are one of the favourites and we should be winning more away than we have been for sure.
 
steve82

steve82

Well-Known Member
We've lost back to back league games just 3 times this season they were...

1st back to back defeat v Newport (0-1) and then Yeovil (0-2) in August we then drew 0-0 at Chesterfield

The 2nd we was beaten by Accrington (1-0) and Forest Green(0-1) in October, we then drew 0-0 v Colchester

3rd to Forest Green (2-1) and Accrington (0-2) so let's hope for a 0-0 at Colchester tomorrow tho the size of the task is bigger this time around.
 
Otis

Otis

Well-Known Member
steve82 said:
We've lost back to back league games just 3 times this season they were...

1st back to back defeat v Newport (0-1) and then Yeovil (0-2) in August we then drew 0-0 at Chesterfield

The 2nd we was beaten by Accrington (1-0) and Forest Green(0-1) in October, we then drew 0-0 v Colchester

3rd to Forest Green (2-1) and Accrington (0-2) so let's hope for a 0-0 at Colchester tomorrow tho the size of the task is bigger this time around.
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Agree. This time you have to add into the mix the injuries we now have and like him or not, Michael Doyle is a key cog in the side just for his endeavour and spirit alone.
 
Warwickhunt

Warwickhunt

Well-Known Member
Cov players mixing with Accrington players has now spread the virus onto them! What a ploy that was
 
steve82

steve82

Well-Known Member
Otis said:
Agree. This time you have to add into the mix the injuries we now have and like him or not, Michael Doyle is a key cog in the side just for his endeavour and spirit alone.
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Yes the injury list is really biting now and a virus thrown in really makes life harder. It's not a case of regrouping and digesting what went wrong were also shuffling the pack around also. 5 changes were made Saturday.

We're missing Doyle now who is instrumental around the pitch, Jack Grimmer who can bring the ball forwards and offers a outlet and Tom Davies. I think he's a big a miss in defence as Micky Doyle is to the midfield.

3 key individuals who made a huge input to the team the last few months.
 
oucho

oucho

Well-Known Member
Otis said:
5 wins out of 15 matches.

Yes, of course lots of other seasons, but nearly always us midtable and lower and not challenging at the top.

If you are one of the best sides in the division surely you expect to win a lot more games.

We only have 5 wins out of 15 games and someone posted the away record table a week or so back and we are well down the league compared to many of the top 7 or 8 teams.
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But overall we are in touching distance - we are not having a crisis, just 2 bad results in a row. No need to panic, we're a decent competitive team and we may well finish in the play-offs. My main criteria this season is that we were competitive. Even if we do not end up going up this season, many of our lads are on 2 year deals so the base for an even stronger, more competitive side for next season has been established. With consistency in personnel and development of League knowledge, we'll be even stronger next year. It's not like "we only get one shot at this". Overall I am pretty happy with how things are.
 
chiefdave

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
steve82 said:
We're missing Doyle now who is instrumental around the pitch, Jack Grimmer who can bring the ball forwards and offers a outlet and Tom Davies. I think he's a big a miss in defence as Micky Doyle is to the midfield.

3 key individuals who made a huge input to the team the last few months.
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And that's just 3 key players in the last few months before you even consider the impact of losing Jones and Andreu.
 
Old Warwickshire lad

Old Warwickshire lad

Well-Known Member
Why do we think we are a good side. I have only seen home games admitidly, but the Stoke game apart we have been mediocre all season. The last two home games before Saturday we were lucky, and we all know what we were last week. This is a league where you run your bollocks off and work hard to get a win. Most on here won’t have that and think we should play beautiful possession football and win by skill alone. Well the Stoke game showed what hard graft can achieve.
 
Otis

Otis

Well-Known Member
Warwickshire lad said:
Why do we think we are a good side. I have only seen home games admitidly, but the Stoke game apart we have been mediocre all season. The last two home games before Saturday we were lucky, and we all know what we were last week. This is a league where you run your bollocks off and work hard to get a win. Most on here won’t have that and think we should play beautiful possession football and win by skill alone. Well the Stoke game showed what hard graft can achieve.
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Robins said we are the best side in this division.

Seems pretty clear that we are not. The defence is good, but McNulty apart, we simply do not create enough chances in games to win games with any regularity.
 
Nick

Nick

Administrator
I don't think it is all about skill, it's about having a team with a plan where everybody knows their jobs and what they are meant to be doing. If they get a throw in in the attacking half all players know where they are going, if it's a corner they all know what they are doing.

There are teams in this league with much weaker squads but they have a better gameplan, they all know their jobs. Watching them play against us you can see that they play to their strengths whether it is pace or strength.

Sometimes I watch us and have no idea what our plan is, yet you watch Wycombe and they have full backs spraying everything into Akinfenwa and Mackail Smith lurking about to pick things up. Cheltenham liked to play it to their wingers every time, Accrington targetted DKE and then put everything on Kee's head when they realised he was winning most things. You can also see teams change things up if they go a goal down, they commit more men forward for example.

Ours is the same week in, week out whether we are winning or losing. The only difference is if McNulty has made a goal out of nothing or not, rather than decent team goals.
 
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