Ricketts
Well-Known Member
We can afford to draw or even lose one of those Sunderland games. Remember Notts County?
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Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
It obviously isn’t. The context I’m putting forward is that even if we fall over on Monday and next weekend, we still have the insurance policy of playing Boro at home. Which puts us in a strong position.
Gosb
Well-Known Member
I don't know if anyone else has made this point, but the rather strange situation we find ourselves in is that if we get 5 points from our last 3 games then we are assured of a play-off spot but if we get 6 then we aren't.
5 points means that we have at least drawn with Middlesbrough so the maximum they can get is 7 so 5 is enough for us (4 if we've beaten them).
6 points means that Middlesbrough may have beaten us so even if we get 6 more they can get ahead of us on goal difference by winning their other 2 games.
QED
5 points means that we have at least drawn with Middlesbrough so the maximum they can get is 7 so 5 is enough for us (4 if we've beaten them).
6 points means that Middlesbrough may have beaten us so even if we get 6 more they can get ahead of us on goal difference by winning their other 2 games.
QED
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
I did think about that possibility!
We could win the next 2 and unless we have a favourable GD swing, Boro could afford to get 3 points out of the next 2 if they beat us.
mmttww
Well-Known Member
Heard a lot of hype about them in the U18s tbf.
COVKIDSNEVERQUIT
Well-Known Member
Leeds will still want to be Champions won't they, they have Burnley breathing down their necks.
It may not matter though. We all can see the permutations, which makes the confidence of some a little unnerving.
Us losing tomorrow and Boro beating Wednesday isn't all that unlikely. That's puts us in a position where a defeat at Luton could be the end of the road. We've all watched football long enough to know there are bound to be twists and turns.
Of course, we get a result tomorrow and that outcome goes out the window. It's all very tight though and forgive me for catatophising, because it just wouldn't surprise me, so preparing myself mentally
Hobo
Well-Known Member
All these theories are well thought out. But I'm just taking one game at a time. At this stage of the season it is an ever changing picture, a picture that can change in the last minute of a game like Middlesbrough v Plymouth.
The last game of the season can be a complete yo-yo across more than one game.
The last game of the season can be a complete yo-yo across more than one game.
play_in_skyblue_stripes
Well-Known Member
That was me who made that earlier.
Interest mathematical quirk
tommydazzle
Well-Known Member
Forget about all these permutations - the psychic octopus has confirmed that no team in red will be promoted from the Championship this season. You heard it hear first.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
It may not matter though. We all can see the permutations, which makes the confidence of some a little unnerving.
Us losing tomorrow and Boro beating Wednesday isn't all that unlikely. That's puts us in a position where a defeat at Luton could be the end of the road. We've all watched football long enough to know there are bound to be twists and turns.
Of course, we get a result tomorrow and that outcome goes out the window. It's all very tight though and forgive me for catatophising, because it just wouldn't surprise me, so preparing myself mentally
That just isn’t a likely scenario and even 2 losses wouldn’t leave us dead and buried unless Boro are 3 points ahead of us and 9+ GD ahead of us on the final day. A bookmaker would give you sound odds for that.
For us, there’s one ‘must win’ match remaining: Boro and that’s it. Obviously you’d want to win the next two but it still comes to the final day if Boro also win their next two.
The odds of all 3 teams (Bristol, Boro and ourselves) winning the next 2 is slim. Teams will drop points and we’re in a position where Boro are chasing us and play us away on the final day. Where we’ve been almost faultless since Lampard took over so again, the statistical models will heavily favour us finishing in Top 6. It’s not gospel, but that is the most likely outcome.
If both Boro and ourselves go 6 points from the next two, the likely outcome is that a draw secures both teams qualifying for the playoffs at Bristols expense.
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Otis
Well-Known Member
Does that include teams IN the red?
Gosb
Well-Known Member
Well spotted! Great Minds and all that.....
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
I don’t think it’s a given Bristol City finish in the top 6 either to be honest. They have won 4 away games all season, playing Luton and Leeds away before wrapping up the season playing PNE.
It’s likely they will finish in the top 6 because Boro needs to be faultless to overturn the 3-4 point gap between us and Bristol.
tommydazzle
Well-Known Member
Psychic octopus doesn’t deal in financials, that would be ridiculous.
I agree that the odds are in our favour, no doubting that. I'm simply stating the worst case here, that Boro beat Wednesday and Norwich and we lose our next two, it would be over. They'd have a minimum +8 GD, likely higher. There would be virtually no prospect of overtaking them. Of course, this takes 4 results to go against us, not even counting Bristol City, so it is unlikely, I don't think anyone is arguing that point, just not sure where, if this did happen, the 'it still goes to the last day' comes from. It wouldn't in any realistic sense.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
In just about every permutation, it literally does to the final day. In fact, it only doesn’t go to the final day if we extend our points lead over Boro.
Even with an advantage of 8+ GD on us, it only takes a 4-0 win for us to finish above Boro on the final day in the event we’re 3 points behind them on the final day.
The maths and probability is fairly simple. We almost definitely will pick up at least a point before we play Boro.
Sky Blue Harry H
Well-Known Member
No - because we'd be 6 points ahead of them, going into our last game against them!!
I would sooner be us than boro. I don't think they will win both there games before playing us and I can't see us not getting anything from either of our next 2 games, fingers crossed we will not have to go to last game, we'll maybe to see who finishes 5 and 6. I think finishing 5 would be better, then we dont get Thurs and Mon playoff games.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Can you tell I’d not long woken up?
There you go, this shows just how much we have to fuck up to mess this up.
Liquid Gold
Well-Known Member
we'll be 5th and 5 points away from 7th today
Otis
Well-Known Member
shepardo01
Well-Known Member
Probably the one whose manager is on his way out, has told half the players they aren't good enough for the championship who also haven't been paid on time!.....Who knows which Wednesday team will turn up.
Players choice of footwear today - flip-flops!
They’re on an awful run, think worst case for mboro it’s a draw, we‘ll win so that’s a 5 point gap with 2 to go, funny Game, can’t see mboro not winning but some of our fans would take a point against PlymouthWho knows which Wednesday team will turn up.
Sometimes though thats the games that suprise you, teams with nothing to play for decide to have a go, I’d still prefer Plymouth today than sheff weds
Grendel
Well-Known Member
Let’s have a debate. Lamps knows more about football remember.