8 points off auto (1 Viewer)

Paxman II · Feb 19, 2013

Theoretically just 2 points off auto

...and the wheels are coming off thick and fast for many around the top 6.
As I expected, squad size plays a huge role about now.
TBH if we concentrate on what we do and not worry about others then when we play Bournemouth and Swindon, beating them both we are theoretically 2 points from automatic promotion.

I would not let that be unnoticed by my players.

2 points from promotion automatically with 11 games to go. That's THE way to look at it.

SkyBlueBlood · Feb 19, 2013

I have been saying for a few months now to forget about a points target, the games against those in and around the top 8 are huge and will make or break our season.

Covstu · Feb 19, 2013

it is so close at the moment, I really hope we are not kicking ourselves for missing key points recently.

Paxman II · Feb 19, 2013

and the games in hand most have had are mostly turning our way. It's there if we want it badly enough. What kind of hero would Carsley be for that?

stupot07 · Feb 19, 2013

Paxman II said:
...and the wheels are coming off thick and fast for many around the top 6.
As I expected, squad size plays a huge role about now.
TBH if we concentrate on what we do and not worry about others then when we play Bournemouth and Swindon, beating them both we are theoretically 2 points from automatic promotion.

I would not let that be unnoticed by my players.

2 points from promotion automatically with 11 games to go. That's THE way to look at it.

We won't get automatic, we probably won't get into the play offs.

Automatic promotion would require likely require 83-84 points minimum - 33 points from 13 games 11 wins 2 losses or 10 wins 3 draws.

SkyBlue_Bear83 · Feb 19, 2013

Lots of teams have games in hand still, Tranmere look to be in free fall at the moment and were very poor when we played them. We stand a good chance of finishing above them, who else are we going to finish ahead of though? Brentford, Bournemouth and Swindon are all good sides who should make the play offs. Doncaster and Sheffield Utd whilst generally uninspiring they both have pretty solid defences to fall back on.
The wildcard this season has been Yeovil, can they keep up the great form or will they run out of steam?

ajsccfc · Feb 19, 2013

The thing I notice a lot is that people talk about a certain points target for a certain position, but in this division in particular it seems that there's little sense of form and so any team within shouting distance who does pick up regular points is in with a shot.

Stevec189 · Feb 19, 2013

More accurate to say 8 points behind Bounemouth since when the games in hand unravel we could be 10 or 11 points behind automatic. Interestingly we have lost as many games as Yeovil but find ourselves 7 points behind them.? Bury at home and Swindon away are two that spring to mind where we have turned wins into dropped points. PUSB

stupot07 · Feb 19, 2013

ajsccfc said:
The thing I notice a lot is that people talk about a certain points target for a certain position, but in this division in particular it seems that there's little sense of form and so any team within shouting distance who does pick up regular points is in with a shot.

Not an exact science, but I just gives you a rough benchmark of what might be needed.

We're 6 points of play offs, most teams have got games in hand, we've have yet to breach the top 6 despite our phenomenal form over the last 24-25 games, and yet we keep mentioning autos. Just seems like we're jumpin the gun and raising expectations.

Grendel · Feb 19, 2013

We have no chance of automatic promotion. We haven't won 2 in a row all season have we? We'd have to win 10 of the last 13 and still probably wouldn't do it.

mark82 · Feb 19, 2013

Grendel said:
We have no chance of automatic promotion. We haven't won 2 in a row all season have we? We'd have to win 10 of the last 13 and still probably wouldn't do it.

Not won 3 in a row. Won 2 on many occasions. Auto very difficult but not impossible. They all keep dropping points.

Colonel Mustard · Feb 19, 2013

Eight points doesn't sound like a lot, but it is a huge deficit at this point in the season.

Even if CCFC won 11 out of 13 games for an improbable 2.5+ points per game, a team like Doncaster would only need to average 1.78 points per game to match us - and they're averaging 1.81 for the season.

Mr T - Sukka! · Feb 19, 2013

Lets not get cocky or ahead of ourselves. Take each games as it comes.

Top 2 not very realistic at all. We would need to win all our remaining games. This is not going to happen! No chance at all! So rule that out right now.

Play offs are more realistic for us. But even this will require a massive points haul from our remaining games. Remeber its where you finish at the last game of the season that matters.

stupot07 · Feb 19, 2013

mark82 said:
Not won 3 in a row. Won 2 on many occasions. Auto very difficult but not impossible. They all keep dropping points.

Hugely improbable though, and not worth discussing until we have broken into and cemented a place in the top 6.

A lot like to cite Reading as an example of coming from near the bottom of the table into auto's/champions. After 33 games they were 3rd with 60 points

SkyBlueBlood · Feb 19, 2013

4 or 5 wins on the bounce now would give huge confidence and put us in with a shout. There is always someone who makes a late run.

dongonzalos · Feb 19, 2013

It's good to see play offs getting discussed as realistic 3 months ago. People were called delusional for suggesting it.

Paxman II · Feb 20, 2013

Thing is grendel it never works that way. What points of Tranmere lost recently? 6,9,12? Lot of points in a few games. Last I looked they were way out in front.

Like I say the pressure and the size of squads will play a huge part in all this.
It's a fact if we beat Bournemeouth and Swindon we are theoretically 2 points off auto is it not?

So what we do with the other 11 games provided we assume for a moment we beat those two mentioned, is what will determine our finish.

Games in hand are not points in the bag. It's always, always been a bad thing to have games in hand and assume that means you catch the others? Rarely happens and has been proven recently by a number of our rivals.

Just saying my science if you will, is better and more inspiring than your science!

Not saying we will or even can but the target is very real.

BrisbaneBronco · Feb 20, 2013

Grendel said:
We have no chance of automatic promotion. We haven't won 2 in a row all season have we? We'd have to win 10 of the last 13 and still probably wouldn't do it.

Won 2 in a row but not 3

BrisbaneBronco · Feb 20, 2013

More fun in the play offs and a trip to Wembley.
Would take us to beat anyone in the play offs. (So long as its not Crewe)

Otis · Feb 20, 2013

stupot07 said:
Hugely improbable though, and not worth discussing until we have broken into and cemented a place in the top 6.

A lot like to cite Reading as an example of coming from near the bottom of the table into
auto's/champions. After 33 games they were 3rd with 60 points

Yep. Not even made the top 6 yet. Forget all about automatic promotion.

The one bit of positivity I can see of late is the fact that only Brentford ahead of us now have 2 games in hand.

It's narrowing somewhat. Bournemouth and Tranmere now have played the same amount of games as us and the rest only have 1 game in hand.

Certainly looking a little rosier than after the Yeovil game.

Keep saying this til I am blue in the face though, we need to sort out our home form before we have any chance whatosever.

Yes, we have to play both Doncaster and Swindon, but they are both at home and it's at home where we have struggled and they are two of the teams we really need to catch.

lordsummerisle · Feb 20, 2013

Otis said:
Yep. Not even made the top 6 yet. Forget all about automatic promotion.

The one bit of positivity I can see of late is the fact that only Brentford ahead of us now have 2 games in hand.

It's narrowing somewhat. Bournemouth and Tranmere now have played the same amount of games as us and the rest only have 1 game in hand.

Certainly looking a little rosier than after the Yeovil game.

Keep saying this til I am blue in the face though, we need to sort out our home form before we have any chance whatosever.

Yes, we have to play both Doncaster and Swindon, but they are both at home and it's at home where we have struggled and they are two of the teams we really need to catch.

It seems to be a pattern with most teams in League One this season of poor home form and good away form.

Macca · Feb 20, 2013

Don t see the consistency required but there you go

skybluesteve76 · Feb 20, 2013

It's gonna be a fairly low finishing points total in the top six the season because everyone's beating everyone else.

covcity4life · Feb 20, 2013

Grendel said:
We have no chance of automatic promotion. We haven't won 2 in a row all season have we? We'd have to win 10 of the last 13 and still probably wouldn't do it.

its highly unlikely. but no chance is clearly incorrect!

if your talking about playoffs we must talk about autos, like paxman said,if we beat our rivals we are in title mix

however if we lose to them we can fail to even clinch a playoff berth

id persoanlly settle for 1 win 1 loss or 2 draws from bourny and swindon

the crazy season continues

shropshirecov · Feb 20, 2013

covcity4life said:
its highly unlikely. but no chance is clearly incorrect!

if your talking about playoffs we must talk about autos, like paxman said,if we beat our rivals we are in title mix

however if we lose to them we can fail to even clinch a playoff berth

id persoanlly settle for 1 win 1 loss or 2 draws from bourny and swindon

the crazy season continues

All teams above to play each other 2 points between top six, 4 of the teams have to play us, it's in our own hands.

Produce promotion form between now and the end of the season and we go up. It's whether we can that's the question!

covcity4life · Feb 20, 2013

exactly and i am still not convinced

crewe on sat could be tough and im not confident vs swindon or bournemouth,but i guess thats cos i am a cov fan!

skybluesam66 · Feb 20, 2013

skybluesteve76 said:
It's gonna be a fairly low finishing points total in the top six the season because everyone's beating everyone else.

wrong steve - because there are no run away teams, and the teams at the bottom being cast adrift, this means more points left for the other teams
This will mean a high points target to reach the play offs in the region of 75 - 78, however a relatively low total for automatic and the top spot

Realistically we need around 2 points per game
swindon/bournemouth/ brentford / Doncaster games will also play a big part, and good results there may mean the target is closer to 75 than 78

We are now in a massive 7 days

4-0 win tonight, followed by 1-0 twice, and the season will really open up

3 defeats and it is just about over

4 points in the 2 league games is a mnimum i think

sky_blue_up_north · Feb 20, 2013

I would say it all rests on the Swindon and Bournemouth games, we really need to win those. Do that and I think we have a great chance of the playoffs, just cannot see us getting Automatic.

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