been on the cider again?
All statistical evidence suggests the contrary. This suggests they lose the sponsor and they fail to get a tenant. It's a White City type of scenario that ultimately will have to be funded by the council until it's bulldozed down. It's silly to say its a viable asset without CCFC.
What statistics?
State them.
Statistics like the accounts I have seen.
Informative but seriously depressing post for me OSB. Just where do CCFC fit in (and prosper) with the Ricoh, which after all is a football stadium?!
In terms of the whole site then the RIcoh is not just a football stadium in fact the football stadium part is less than 50%.
My mistake. That was no rent, but obviously included matchday stuff, etc.
As I said, you may have a point about ACL going bust or you may not, I'm not going to claim to be an expert in company finance (although I know a man who does, and he seems to think they'll be OK). I just know politically that a) I'd still be reserving space for CCFC and that b) I would neither let such a high profile decision (the loan) be in vain, nor if the worst comes to the worst, allow the current owners of CCFC first refusal. As such, I worry about hanging our hat for the survival of the club on the chance that you and others who claim to know more are right.
As alluded to in the post above, ACL can't wait around forever. If you are right in that an anchor sports tenant is vital, maybe it'd be better for them to refuse a short term deal so that they can get on with a replacement. I'm not sure they would for political and sentimental reasons, but how much sway do the Council and Higgs have compared to the Chief Exec for example (honest question). Wouldn't he have to do what's best for the business?
I'm really worried Joy's bitten off more than she can chew here, and we'll be the ones left to pick up the pieces.
I have thought for a long time (although they will never admit it) that ACL don't really want a SISU owned CCFC back at the Ricoh. Yes long term they will want CCFC back, but only when SISU have left, and they are simply prepared to wait. They believe like most people there is no plan B, and that plan A (getting the Ricoh) is there only option.
It is why SISU are determined to continue legal threats, and why they hardly even mention the new stadium fable anymore. Once you take out the huge legal fees that will be needed to agree a new deal, how much net income will ACL actually make,particularly when you factor in the new risk involved in getting entangled with the litigious SISU again.
Unfortunately for us fans, it may mean a further period of misery, but unless SISU cave in, and that doesn't appear to be in their nature, I believe ACL are content to keep them at arms length,especially if the FL orders the full £590,000 to be paid. Just as some people clung to the notion that the JR would produce a smoking gun, they are now clinging to the vain hope that ACL will suddenly implode.
Great stuff OSB. Really good to have some background & analysis.
One of the issues with discussing all of this is that people will simplify things (e.g. Compass rather than IEG) and that's where some of the confusion & received wisdom creeps in. The flip side of that is that all the TLA & FLAs confuse the hell out of a lot of people.
A couple of points...
How to work out a reasonable rent?
Looking at all of the recent machinations at Peterborough, we see they have renegotiated – after withholding rent! – to £300,000 which will be cut drastically during the renovations and then get back up to near the £0.5m mark. However, what does that get them? 365 day access? Control of all revenue generating possibilities? A pretty crappy stadium which might be a bit better after the Moys end improvements?
But then what is a L1 standard/average/benchmark? The Ricoh Arena, Deepdale, The Britannia, the Crisp Bowl, Elland Road, St Mary's, The Valley, Hillsborough, Bramall Lane, Liberty Stadium, Madejski Stadium, DW Stadium & Molineux have all hosted L1 games in recent years and are in the same tier but contrast that with some of the tumbledown crackhouses that lurk around the fixture list.
Ultimately, I'm with OSB & others who see negotiations as the way to sort out any issues and that the idea that this could get sorted out for the new season is pretty laughable.
I'm probably with the cynical wing here in thinking that neither side are to bothered about getting things done but am less cynical about the possibility of a new stadium. I might drop into Ladbrookes later to see what odds I can get & start up a betting thread for a bit of fun
No New Ground while they keep appealing Rob.
Why not?
The Appeals are to deliver the RICOH,havn't you heard .
So what odds would you give that CCFC will/won't be playing in a newly built stadium by, say, 2020?
So what odds would you give that CCFC will/won't be playing in a newly built stadium by, say, 2020?
There is currently no evidence that a new stadium will be built.
Still no answer to my question tho'. What odds do I get? 2/1? 10/1? 1000/1?
Still no answer to my question tho'. What odds do I get? 2/1? 10/1? 1000/1?
The questoin is irrelevant. I do not offer any odds, as it isn't going to happen. Deep down, do you think it will?
If another 12 months pass with no sign of land purchase or build ,the FL would be under immense pressure to relieve Sisu of the golden share?
If in 12 months time sisu agree to a 3 year or so deal back at the Ricoh ,the FL couldnt touch them .A good incentive to talk but very ,very slowly.
I'm not saying that you have to take the bet but 'impossible odds' are still given. Deep down I think it will unless ACL & Sisu work out a deal or either (or even both!) go bust. There's always the possibility of a buyer coming in and offering enough to make Sisu sell but I think there's more likelihood of a new stadium.
I know someone who met Joy recently and said that in his mind the chance of a new stadium had gone from 20–30% to 60–70% or more and he's no Sisu fan by a long chalk.
EDIT: Sisu won't go bust.
So what odds would you give that CCFC will/won't be playing in a newly built stadium by, say, 2020?
Just some ideas I am sure there should be others . It is not that it cant be done..........
From conversations I've had, £220k wouldn't be too far-fetched. Totally agree with your extended ellipses tho' ;-)
It can be done without that much outlay. This is the reason these people are million- & billionaires. They can make this sort of thing work. Trust me, I used to work in this area – well, the media part of the sector – and have seen some seemingly impossible projects come to fruition. This is small beer in comparison.In this quote you comment that you are concerned that people are discounting a new stadium build . This is SISU's decision , if it happens it happens . Hey ho ,Coventry have a new stadium to do with what they will,but in my eyes Sisu wouldnt be as foolish . Another 20 to 30 million on top of what they already owe plus 10 to 20 mill to get you into the premiership (with an awful lot of luck)
I know hedge funds go for high risk ,high return but this smacks of high risk, low return
BTW, I doubt you're much of a betting man but you do know that closing the book means that you are certain it will happen?wouldn't give you odds on the current incarnation of CCFC playing in 2020 to be fair let alone in a new stadium
BTW, I doubt you're much of a betting man but you do know that closing the book means that you are certain it will happen?
The rent. Not sure these ideas are acceptable but here goes.
The argument from TF is that the rent should be based on a benchmark figure of around 170k as I understand it. That is what he says is the average rent for an average L1 club ground. Ignore the premium that should apply for quality but say we accept that is right (never seen it proved so I really do not know). A measurement of an average ground is capacity (this seasons not any other season because we are on about current not past rents) The average ground in FL1 is 15706 seats. That would be for the use during matches because that is the main use at most grounds. That would equate to 170,000/15706 = 10.82 rent per seat per season or 47p per seat per game.
Additional games (cup etc ) could simply be at 47p per seat
Usage well that's left out of this but on average it is 49% for L1 clubs . Usage is largely dependent on what the club puts on the pitch for its customers and nothing to do with the stadium management or stadium owners.
what you could do is
1) have a usage cost of 47p per match per seat occupied. Match attendance is 10000 rent = 4700 Would favour the club but it is in clubs best interest to maximise attendance and it should be able to provide the correct figure that can be checked
or
2) say you rent the whole stadium so it is 32,602 x 47p x 23 = £352,427. Clearly higher than they want (or perhaps if ACL accepts £170k plus match day expenses indicates a discount on rent other teams do not get pro rata to capacity) Would favour ACL
or
3) close off parts of the ground to reduce capacity and say have 20000 x 47p x 23 = £216200 Perhaps an acceptable compromise?
47p as a percentage of a match ticket is not a lot - less than 4%
Sticking point is still the match day expenses and access to income.
Match expenses well any team has those so why would it be a problem other than how much. Define them agree a unit price or provide copies of invoices. do it on a one year or six monthly rolling basis for review. How hard should it be in a computer age to do a little number crunching. But they are not part of the rent
In terms of access to income well if the 47p per seat plus match day expenses paid then the match day income is CCFC's.
The next bit is where to source F&B's etc. Why not source it from ACL/IEC/Compass etc they are on site and there should be economies of scale. There is a deal to be done just need some open minds on both sides. To get that income the club has to pay direct costs to someone get a deal on price with IEC/ACL. Again it is in clubs interest to maximise turnover and margins but so long as ACL/IEC make some profit in the deal why would they not do it? So long as CCFC make a decent margin too why would they not do it
Advertising. I believe at Sixfields CCFC bring theirs in and out on match days. Why not do the same. Income and direct costs all CCFC's to deal with
Car parking- not sure what the average car park capacity is at the average L1 ground I doubt it is close to 2000. Well if not there could be a calculation to pay a reasonable premium for the spaces that relate to the above the £170k average rent stadium alluded to.
Just some ideas I am sure there should be others . It is not that it cant be done..........
So on that basis we were grossly overcharged on the original deal weren't we?
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