A selection of Season Previews (1 Viewer)

https://welovebetting.co.uk/wlb-season-preview-2019-20-league-one-team-verdicts/
4th) Coventry (33/1 Blacktype)

For the second time in recent history, the Sky Blues have been forced out of the Ricoh Arena and their own city after a long dispute between the much-hated SISU (their owners) and Wasps, the ‘local’ rugby union team. In 2019/2020, they will have to share with Birmingham, and it remains to be seen just how badly that will affect attendances and possibly results.

On the pitch, the West Midlands outfit settled into life back in the third tier with ease, not quite troubling the play-off places, all the while developing an exciting brand of attacking football that eventually came to match their shot dominance in most matches. Mark Robins has had to contend with not just the ground situation, but two key players both joining divisional rivals Sunderland. Kyle McFadzean’s signature means he’s the only centre back older than 23 on the books, and they should look to him to take the lead.

Bright Enobakhare looks to be staying at Wolves, and Conor Chaplin has just joined Barnsley in the Championship. Even bearing those in mind, there is still plenty of speed and movement in the forward areas to persuade opposition managers to dedicate more men to defensive duties, freeing up space for the likes of Tom Bayliss to pick dictate the tempo.

There’s more than a decent case to be made for a further season of improvement, despite playing over 20 miles away from home. A top six finish can still be found at 10/3 with bet365, with Robins truly having found his niche once more at CCFC.


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8. Coventry City

For the second time this decade, Coventry City will be playing their ‘home’ games away from home.

The move to Northampton in 2013 was greeted with anger but this year, which sees the club play at St Andrews, there is more of a sense that while owners SISU are partially to blame for this shameful situation, the behaviour of the council and Wasps rugby club are also responsible.

Plus, Coventry do not start the season with a points deduction, as they did six years ago, nor are they under a transfer embargo – 11 additions had been made by July.

High-pressing terrier Jamie Allen and solid centre-back Kyle McFadzean join from Burton; the former should compliment driven skipper Liam Kelly and young talent Tom Bayliss in midfield, while McFadzean’s arrival counterbalances the loss of Jordan Willis.

Fankaty Dabo, who played to a reasonable standard in Holland, brings attacking qualities at right-back; left-back Brandon Mason is an accomplished crosser but needs to show more confidence.

Increased productivity from full-backs might help Coventry break down deep-block opposition; they scored just 16 goals in 15 home league games against teams below them in 2018-19 – the main solution will be adding a focal point.

Jordi Hiwula tends to break in from the left, Curacaon international Gervane Kastaneer is a wide forward, Amadou Bakayoko is a raw runner but not particularly composed while Maxime Biamou has been recovering from a long-term injury.

While there is much to like about the squad Mark Robins is building, it is hard to imagine Coventry having tangible success without the sacred sense of identity that comes from playing in their home city.



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Coventry (33/1 Blacktype) Betting chances

Peterborough have the potential to make a major mark on the League One promotion race after an eye-catching glut of transfer business but I’m happier taking a watching brief with doubts surrounding Darren Ferguson in the hot-seat. With similar concerns encircling the majority of the market’s front-runners, there could be value to garnered elsewhere.

Indeed, 10 (53%) of the 19 League One seasons this century has seen a club priced up at 20/1 or larger finish in the top-three, with six (32%) campaigns featuring a team at 40/1 pinching place money. With that in mind, there’s two overpriced clubs I like with the ability to pierce the promotion places, starting with Coventry at a bulbous 33/1 (Blacktype).

The Sky Blues projected as a top-six side last term, posting the fifth-best Expected Goals (xG) ratio, as well as xG from open play. Mark Robins’ men were undone by a lack of killer instinct, particularly at the Ricoh Arena when welcoming the division’s lesser lights. Sure, centre-forward remains a problem position but Cov are working hard to address that issue.

Elsewhere, City snapped up Burton pair Kyle McFadzean and Jamie Allen to provide overdue leadership at the back, and a goalscoring presence from midfield. Allen’s arrival allows Robins to field one of the league’s strongest suits across the middle of the park with Liam Kelly and Tom Bayliss making up an attractive three in a possible 4-3-3 system this season.

Obviously, the knock-on effect of moving to St Andrew’s is inconvenient, if difficult to accurately gauge. The ever-lasting dispute with owners SISU threatens to derail any off-field stability but if Robins is allowed full control on first-team matters, I’d expect the Sky Blues to better last year’s very respectable eight-placed finish, with the caveat they sign a striker.




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Rounded off by some fascinating stats about League One...

https://welovebetting.co.uk/wlb-season-preview-2019-20-league-one-stats-trends/

WLB Season Preview 2019/20 | League One: Stats & Trends

League Winners (since 2000/01)

Average price – 18/1.
Average position finished year previously – 11th.
10 (53%) of the past 19 League One title winners were priced at single-figure odds.
9 (81%) of the past 11 League One title winners were priced at single-figure odds.
6 (32%) of the past 19 League One title winners had just been relegated from the Championship.
5 (26%) of the past 19 League One title winners were priced at 20/1 or larger
3 (16) of the past 19 League One title winners had just been promoted from League Two.
1 (5%) of the past 19 league winners failed in the play-offs the year previous.
Top 3 Finishers (since 2000/01)

Average price – 19/1.
Average position finished year previously – 9th – 12 (21%) had failed in the play-offs the year previously, 11 (19%) were relegated clubs and 8 (14%) had just been promoted the year previous.
10 (53%) of the past 19 seasons has seen a side priced up at 20/1 or larger finish in the top three.
6 (32%) of the past 19 seasons has seen a side priced up at 40/1 or larger finish in the top three.
Favourites (since 2000/01)

Average finishing position – 4th.
Average price of the favourites – 9/2 – Sunderland are 4/1 this season.
Sheffield United (2016/17) and Wolves (2013/14) are the only winning favourites this century – an 11% title win rate in that sample – and only winning favourites since 1994.
16 (84%) of the past 19 favourites this century have finished in the top-six.
10 (53%) of the past 19 favourites this century have been promoted.
8 (42%) of the past 19 favourites this century have won automatic promotion.
3 (16%) of the past 19 favourites this century have finished outside the top-six but zero have finished in the bottom-half.
Relegated Clubs (since 2000/01)

Relegated clubs have won the Championship in 6/19 seasons (32%).
Average finishing position of a relegated club – 10th.
In 9 (81%) of the last 11 seasons a relegated club has won promotion and bounced straight back to the Championship.
15/57 (26%) clubs have won promotion straight back to the Championship with 22 (39%) finishing in the top-six, 42 (60%) in the top-half. Meanwhile, 23 (40%) finished in the bottom-half whilst 6 (11%) suffered back-to-back relegation.
Promoted Clubs (since 2000/01)

Average finishing position of a promoted club – 13th.
Only 10/76 (13%) promoted clubs have suffered immediate relegation.
All four promoted clubs have survived in 9 (47%) of the 19 seasons this century.
8 (11%) promoted clubs have won promotion again, 16 (21%) have finished in the top-six with 38 (50%) tabling top-half finishes. Alternatively, 38 (50%) concluded their campaign in the bottom-half with 10 (13%) suffering immediate demotion.
Unsuccessful Play-Off Campaigns (since 2000/01)

The average finish of a losing play-off finalist is 10th.
6 (31%) of the 19 play-off final losers have bounced back to win promotion the following season – 9 (47%) registered top-six finishes and 12 (63%) concluded in the top-half. However, 7 (37%) ended their next campaign in the bottom-half with 3 (16%) relegated.
The average finishing position of a side involved in an unsuccessful play-off campaign is 10th.
13 (23%) teams involved in an unsuccessful play-off campaign have bounced back to win promotion this century – 24 (42%) tabling another top-six finish and 38 (67%) registering a top-half finish. However, 19 (33%) ended in the bottom-half with 6 (11%) relegated.
Any Other Business (since 2000/01)

The top-scoring (or joint-top) side in League One has been crowned champions in 11/19 (58%) seasons this century, winning promotion on 15 (79%) occasions (average finish 2nd).
The lowest (or joint-lowest) scoring side in League One has been relegated in 12/19 (63%) seasons this century, finishing rock-bottom on 5 (26%) occasions (average finish 21st).
The best defence (or joint-best) in League One has been crowned champions in 11/19 (63%) seasons this century, winning promotion in 17/19 (89%) seasons (average finish 2nd)
The side with the worst defence in League One has been relegated in 15/19 (79%) seasons this century, finishing rock-bottom on 5 (26%) occasions (average finish 21st).


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442 season preview written by the ever excellent Lawrence ‘Lonely Season’...



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