CCFC Centre Back Stats Comparison (2 Viewers)

Frostie · Feb 19, 2021

As most of you probably know, I'm quite into my stats & data analysis & have begun working on a few different visualisations that I thought I'd share with you as I know some like @shmmeee are interested in these kind of things. With 30 games played now, we have some good data to start making some comaprisons.

As it's been a topic of debate, particularly since the dropping of Østigård vs Norwich, I thought I'd start with a viz showing our 4 main centre backs & how they compare in certain areas.

Interested to see what you take from these & also happy to take suggestions for things you might be interested in for the future.

Deity · Feb 19, 2021

Really interesting ....

it possibly highlights that Leo’s threat from attacking set pieces has masked our perception of him as a defender.

I’m sure he would argue that he has rarely played in his preferred position however .... it mainly as the right hand side of 3.

on the whole the stats look really poor for them all but you need a benchmark in their to assess this properly.

fernandopartridge · Feb 19, 2021

Frostie said:
As most of you probably know, I'm quite into my stats & data analysis & have begun working on a few different visualisations that I thought I'd share with you as I know some like @shmmeee are interested in these kind of things. With 30 games played now, we have some good data to start making some comaprisons.

As it's been a topic of debate, particularly since the dropping of Østigård vs Norwich, I thought I'd start with a viz showing our 4 main centre backs & how they compare in certain areas.

Interested to see what you take from these & also happy to take suggestions for things you might be interested in for the future.

View attachment 18774

Interesting, you can tell from the stats that McFadz is almost a sweeper.

Can you do a comparison with some of the better centre backs in the league?

Winny the Bish · Feb 19, 2021

Can we get a comparison to the league average Frostie? Or some top-performing defenders?

Frostie · Feb 19, 2021

Deity said:
on the whole the stats look really poor for them all but you need a benchmark in their to assess this properly.

fernandopartridge said:
Can you do a comparison with some of the better centre backs in the league?

Sure, I can look to add something like that. This was purely looking to compare our CBs with each other though because if we start adding other teams players it becomes a bit more muddled as we're not really comparing like for like. For example they might play in a back 4 or in a team that doesn't have to do as much defending, maybe they play out from the back less etc.

e.g. League Leader in Clearances is Tom Lees (Sheff Wed) with 5.7 where McFadz is our highest on 4.5.
Part of the reason for this though is Sheff Wed & Lees particularly are much more 'no nonsense' & he will look to simply clear the ball from danger rather than play out from the back. This is reflected by his Passes Attempted being down at 30.7pg where our guys are all 44-54 range,

Nick · Feb 19, 2021

Not sure thats right, Hyam no mistakes for goals?

Frostie · Feb 19, 2021

Nick said:
Not sure thats right, Hyam no mistakes for goals?

That stat is from a source I don't normally use so interested to see if it's accurate.

They have pretty strict criteria to qualify though. It needs to be a clear cut opportunity directly from a clear error solely attributable to that individual.

Must admit to being surprised how low some of those numbers are but seems the same across the league except for goalkeepers.

Esoterica · Feb 19, 2021

Possession Won and Lost would also be interesting additions. Things like blocked crosses and shielding the ball out count for possession won and have a feeling that is a strength of Ostigard.

My gut feeling is that Rose is extremely passive in games and seeing his stats there they do look very low, but how much of that is actually a symptom of e.g. Hyam trotting forward, failing to release the ball early, doing his usual 180 and passing the ball square to Rose via McFadz, to the point that the opposition are now back in shape and can pressure Rose because the pass to him is the obvious, telegraphed outlet.

shmmeee · Feb 19, 2021

Esoterica said:
Possession Won and Lost would also be interesting additions. Things like blocked crosses and shielding the ball out count for possession won and have a feeling that is a strength of Ostigard.

My gut feeling is that Rose is extremely passive in games and seeing his stats there they do look very low, but how much of that is actually a symptom of e.g. Hyam trotting forward, failing to release the ball early, doing his usual 180 and passing the ball square to Rose via McFadz, to the point that the opposition are now back in shape and can pressure Rose because the pass to him is the obvious, telegraphed outlet.

This is the thing with stats. They aren’t there to say “Hyams pass percentage is high therefore he’s great” or “Østigård need to do more blocks”, but for identifying areas where *something* is happening and needs detailed investigation.

Your example with Hyam and Rose is a perfect example. I wouldn’t expect Robins to see the stats and sack off Rose, I’d expect him to pull a load of videos of Rose to see what’s happening.

(I know you know this, just more for the general “stats are useless” crowd)

cc84cov · Feb 19, 2021

Osti & rose is the pairing for me moving forward

JulianDarbyFTW · Feb 19, 2021

There was an interview with Graham Potter on the radio last week, and he said he takes no real notice of these kind of stats, which I was surprised at given he's seen as a young and innovate manager. As mentioned above, they're a great way to highlight areas that require further investigation. They may not lead to firm conclusions, or show genuine problems, but just by digging a little deeper you can learn an awful lot - managers talk about eeking out that extra 1% from players, and stats are a great way to find ways to do that IMHO.

cc84cov · Feb 19, 2021

Even with 3 CB’s 1 up front we are gonna get picked apart flat 4 with 2 CB’s is the way to go

Frostie · Feb 19, 2021

JulianDarbyFTW said:
There was an interview with Graham Potter on the radio last week, and he said he takes no real notice of these kind of stats, which I was surprised at given he's seen as a young and innovate manager. As mentioned above, they're a great way to highlight areas that require further investigation. They may not lead to firm conclusions, or show genuine problems, but just by digging a little deeper you can learn an awful lot - managers talk about eeking out that extra 1% from players, and stats are a great way to find ways to do that IMHO.

That's right. Clubs at all levels now are massively investing in data analysts etc. to help identify areas of improvement & also player recruitment.

Brighton are a good example actually of how data gets it right. Their performance metrics are consistently very good, particularly in chance creation but their conversion is incredibly poor.

Analysts have been saying for a long time that they'll eventually come good. They're now 6 undefeated, 4th in the PL Form Table & even that is still under what they could be doing if you look at the xG comparisons v Villa & Fulham etc.

steve101 · Feb 19, 2021

Really interesting. Thanks for posting. As most have noted Hyam being one of our better players in the first quarter of the season and one of our weaker during the second quarter, I wonder if this is represented in the stats if there was a timeline comparison?

PVA · Feb 19, 2021

cc84cov said:
Even with 3 CB’s 1 up front we are gonna get picked apart flat 4 with 2 CB’s is the way to go

If we play a flat back 4 without wingers the fullbacks would get doubled up on and absolutely taken apart (as they have a couple of times when we've played 4 at the back this season, like v Forest the other week).

Frostie · Feb 19, 2021

I have another analysis of where we fit in the league as a whole for various stats (I know hit woodwork was obviously a hot topic for conversation previously & rightly so!).
I'll hopefully get to post that later this evening or before the game tomorrow.

Given all the conversations regarding 4 at the back & 2 up front etc. I will try to make that a future topic soon!

speedie87 · Feb 19, 2021

Only stat I want to see is top speed

shmmeee · Feb 19, 2021

speedie87 said:
Only stat I want to see is top speed

ooohh that would be really interesting. Does anywhere track that?

speedie87 · Feb 19, 2021

shmmeee said:
ooohh that would be really interesting. Does anywhere track that?

Would only need a sun dial for hyam and macfadzean

mark_ccfc · Feb 19, 2021

You just need to take all the stats and make them into a set of top trump cards, one for each player.

Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Feb 19, 2021

JulianDarbyFTW said:
There was an interview with Graham Potter on the radio last week, and he said he takes no real notice of these kind of stats, which I was surprised at given he's seen as a young and innovate manager. As mentioned above, they're a great way to highlight areas that require further investigation. They may not lead to firm conclusions, or show genuine problems, but just by digging a little deeper you can learn an awful lot - managers talk about eeking out that extra 1% from players, and stats are a great way to find ways to do that IMHO.

Stats are important in learning stuff but it's dangerous to become totally fixated on them as they can't tell you everything. Some things just aren't quantifiable and you need to use your own eyes as well to get the 'feel' of a player's style of play and what that adds/detracts from the team, not to mention psychological and behaviour. For example, would stats show how a player motivates others around him either via encouragement, instruction or just by example? Or disrupts morale? Or how a players positioning can slow up an opposition attack by preventing a move just by standing in the right area without needing to make a block or interception as people got back into position. Hughes and Clingan had pretty decent stats but when you watched them you could see just how much they detracted from our attacking impetus because they slowed everything down and allowed the opposition to regroup.

'Moneyball' isn't infallible.

fernandopartridge · Feb 19, 2021

Esoterica said:
Possession Won and Lost would also be interesting additions. Things like blocked crosses and shielding the ball out count for possession won and have a feeling that is a strength of Ostigard.

My gut feeling is that Rose is extremely passive in games and seeing his stats there they do look very low, but how much of that is actually a symptom of e.g. Hyam trotting forward, failing to release the ball early, doing his usual 180 and passing the ball square to Rose via McFadz, to the point that the opposition are now back in shape and can pressure Rose because the pass to him is the obvious, telegraphed outlet.

The extra 2 or 3 touches our centre backs take, especially Hyam just sap the tempo from our game. When Hyam does go forwards, he releases the ball a fraction too late so McCallum has to come back to it on his wrong foot. It then goes back to Hyam and across to Rose per your example.

I do think that Kelly offers a little bit more here though, he shows (or my memory is playing tricks) for the ball a bit more than any of the current deep lying 3. Often the only midfielder showing for it is O'Hare, who is usually quickly surrounded.

Frostie · Feb 19, 2021

fernandopartridge said:
The extra 2 or 3 touches our centre backs take, especially Hyam just sap the tempo from our game. When Hyam does go forwards, he releases the ball a fraction too late so McCallum has to come back to it on his wrong foot. It then goes back to Hyam and across to Rose per your example.

I do think that Kelly offers a little bit more here though, he shows (or my memory is playing tricks) for the ball a bit more than any of the current deep lying 3. Often the only midfielder showing for it is O'Hare, who is usually quickly surrounded.

Agree with that. It's a strength of Sheaf too, always offering for the ball from the CBs.

With Hyam, he's trying his best on his weaker side but yes, I believe he inhibits McCallum's attacking output too.

Tomh111 · Feb 19, 2021

The science/stats geek is going to come out in me here, so please don't think this is criticism I'm just genuinely interested. I think that the whole moneyball and analytics of sport is incredible, but you have to identify the correct statistic to analyse and look at and that is the most difficult thing to work out!

Where did you get this data from?

How were certain factors decided?
e.g. How did you/they define that an error lead to a goal? What quantifies a 'pass'?

Have you looked at adding in any controls and taking the analysis a step further?
i.e. Are the stats skewed by opposition quality/style? by opposition players? Whether pass length is affecting certain players?

Frostie · Feb 19, 2021

Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
Stats are important in learning stuff but it's dangerous to become totally fixated on them as they can't tell you everything. Some things just aren't quantifiable and you need to use your own eyes as well to get the 'feel' of a player's style of play and what that adds/detracts from the team, not to mention psychological and behaviour. For example, would stats show how a player motivates others around him either via encouragement, instruction or just by example? Or disrupts morale? Or how a players positioning can slow up an opposition attack by preventing a move just by standing in the right area without needing to make a block or interception as people got back into position. Hughes and Clingan had pretty decent stats but when you watched them you could see just how much they detracted from our attacking impetus because they slowed everything down and allowed the opposition to regroup.

'Moneyball' isn't infallible.

Absolutely.
I have done the Talent Identification qualifications & it's hammered home at every stage that stats are only part of the picture. It's why I was reluctant to compare our CBs with others earlier too as there's too many variables there.

Fwiw, I know somebody labelled us as "signing players from a spreadsheet" in one of the other threads but I can categorically tell you that isn't the case. Every single player signed under this recruitment team has been thoroughly scouted by data, by video analysis & in person. Hamer for example was tracked by Chris Badlan for 5 years, dating back to his days at Wolves before he even joined us so when MR highlighted the type of player he was looking at to fill a Liam Walsh sized hole, Badlan already had Hamer in mind.

It should never be one or the other but the data that's available now gives a great steer of where to look in more detail.

Nick · Feb 19, 2021

Frostie said:
That stat is from a source I don't normally use so interested to see if it's accurate.

They have pretty strict criteria to qualify though. It needs to be a clear cut opportunity directly from a clear error solely attributable to that individual.

Must admit to being surprised how low some of those numbers are but seems the same across the league except for goalkeepers.

Yeah it's not accurate at all, Hyam has been at fault for a fair few goals this season.

Londonccfcfan · Feb 19, 2021

What about all the penaltys they have all given away? dont that count as Errors leading to goals/chances.?

Alot of info not in there seems like very basic crude facts.

Frostie · Feb 19, 2021

Tomh111 said:
The science/stats geek is going to come out in me here, so please don't think this is criticism I'm just genuinely interested. I think that the whole moneyball and analytics of sport is incredible, but you have to identify the correct statistic to analyse and look at and that is the most difficult thing to work out!

Where did you get this data from?

How were certain factors decided?
e.g. How did you/they define that an error lead to a goal? What quantifies a 'pass'?

Have you looked at adding in any controls and taking the analysis a step further?
i.e. Are the stats skewed by opposition quality/style? by opposition players? Whether pass length is affecting certain players?

Not at all Tom, great questions & I should have included in original post that the stats are sourced from a variety of reputable stats sites such as Opta, Whoscored & FBref.

The stats selected are deliberately just for comparing our CBs with one another as I touched on earlier due to the incredible amount of variables you allude to if we starting throwing every CB in the league in there. There's a place for that but more analysis & different metrics required. CBs & GKs are particularly tricky to quantify in those terms but might look at midfielder creativity or similar in future.

shmmeee · Feb 19, 2021

Tomh111 said:
The science/stats geek is going to come out in me here, so please don't think this is criticism I'm just genuinely interested. I think that the whole moneyball and analytics of sport is incredible, but you have to identify the correct statistic to analyse and look at and that is the most difficult thing to work out!

Where did you get this data from?

How were certain factors decided?
e.g. How did you/they define that an error lead to a goal? What quantifies a 'pass'?

Have you looked at adding in any controls and taking the analysis a step further?
i.e. Are the stats skewed by opposition quality/style? by opposition players? Whether pass length is affecting certain players?

Same questions in any modelling really. Always making choices on fuzzy category boundaries.

I think the honest answer is outside of elite clubs I doubt anyone captures enough data to answer a lot of those questions, but certainly I could imagine expanding a pro zone type system to take a more holistic view of the game. Modern ML algorithms are getting really good at analysing that sort of time series data. So if it’s not already a thing I expect it will be shortly.

Otis · Feb 19, 2021

speedie87 said:
Only stat I want to see is top speed

And whether their MOT is still valid.

Frostie · Feb 19, 2021

Londonccfcfan said:
What about all the penaltys they have all given away? dont that count as Errors leading to goals/chances.?

Alot of info not in there seems like very basic crude facts.

I chose not to include them as think it's a bit basic. Take McFadzean's penalty conceded vs Forest away, should he really be judged on that as an error? Wasn't it more Biamou's error in the first place? So therefore not fitting the criteria I outlined earlier. Norwich's penalty that was wrongly awarded, should Wilson really have that against him for example?

Yes, in essence this is just crude facts to enable us to analyse & discuss the pro's & con's of our CBs. Does it back up what you expected from watching the games etc?
For example in my head, McFadz uses the ball better but Østigård is superior in the air, do the stats back that up? I'd say yes.

Frostie · Feb 19, 2021

Nick said:
Yeah it's not accurate at all, Hyam has been at fault for a fair few goals this season.

I agree from watching but, as alluded to there's probably not many you could pin on solely him. Or maybe he was outpaced etc. that's not really an error as such it's just a physical flaw of his & much different to say leaving a back pass short or similar.

Evo1883 · Feb 19, 2021

I find it hard to believe that after so many games, our centre backs have basically almost never made a mistake that lead to a chance or a goal... Seems extremely low for even the best centre halves after 30 matches.

Again.. My issue with stats is they do not indicate at all the build up play leading to conceding goals, positioning, left in the shit by a wing back or midfielder etc etc

Stats in general simply touch the surface and can often make a player look worse than they are, or better in some cases

Nice work though, I prefer what I see on the pitch to what I read, always have... Probably why I prefer movies to books

Johhny Blue · Feb 19, 2021

speedie87 said:
Would only need a sun dial for hyam and macfadzean

Or a calendar

CCFC Centre Back Stats Comparison (2 Viewers)

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