Championship thread 24/25! (22 Viewers)

Travs · Thursday at 8:44 AM

I don't think Luton were a fluke, they were in and around playoffs for a couple of years.

And they gave it a reasonable go...... had they not absolutely collapsed in the 2nd half vs Forest they'd have probably stayed up.

Definitely unique, in terms of club size, ground, etc....... but not a fluke.

shmmeee · Thursday at 8:46 AM

Travs said:
I don't think Luton were a fluke, they were in and around playoffs for a couple of years.

And they gave it a reasonable go...... had they not absolutely collapsed in the 2nd half vs Forest they'd have probably stayed up.

Definitely unique, in terms of club size, ground, etc....... but not a fluke.

They went up on momentum was my point. Maybe fluke is harsh.

Sky Blue Harry H · Thursday at 9:07 AM

Although at first glance. a disaster, Luton (if relegated) will almost certainly come back up, assuming they utilise some of next season's PL parachute payments towards the squad. When promoted, they will have another year's money at their disposal, momentum, plus the new stadium on its way (2026). Not a given that they will come back 'strong', and it depends on how much of the PL money is available for the squad rebuild. Certainly could do with clinging on this season.

KenilworthSkyBlue · Thursday at 9:14 AM

Sky Blue Harry H said:
Although at first glance. a disaster, Luton (if relegated) will almost certainly come back up, assuming they utilise some of next season's PL parachute payments towards the squad. When promoted, they will have another year's money at their disposal, momentum, plus the new stadium on its way (2026). Not a given that they will come back 'strong', and it depends on how much of the PL money is available for the squad rebuild. Certainly could do with clinging on this season.

PL clubs relegated the first season after promotion only get 2 years of parachute payments.

Sky Blue Harry H · Thursday at 9:22 AM

KenilworthSkyBlue said:
PL clubs relegated the first season after promotion only get 2 years of parachute payments.

Ouch - that's a double whammy then - that will really disadvantage them.

KenilworthSkyBlue · Thursday at 9:37 AM

Sky Blue Harry H said:
Ouch - that's a double whammy then - that will really disadvantage them.

There's no guarantee that they'll come back up either. Any decent players they have will be sold and the majority of existing PL money and parachute payments has probably already gone / is going towards their new stadium.

L1 is also much more competitive now. There's a lot of clubs that are happy to throw money about.

Personally I think if they do get relegated it will be a bit disastrous.

SBAndy · Thursday at 9:43 AM

shmmeee said:
They’re a good example of what happens if you get there in a fluke without building club capacity and spend all the money on a stadium and not players. I don’t that that applies to anyone else in this division tbh.

Some of the players they signed though. Jacob Brown….ugh. Not even nearly a top Champ player.

Captain Dart · Thursday at 9:45 AM

KenilworthSkyBlue said:
There's no guarantee that they'll come back up either. Any decent players they have will be sold and the majority of existing PL money and parachute payments has probably already gone / is going towards their new stadium.

L1 is also much more competitive now. There's a lot of clubs that are happy to throw money about.

Personally I think if they do get relegated it will be a bit disastrous.

I think they will be OK, they are a club with a Championship pedigree. Since 1960 they spent more than 20 seasons in the Prem/Div 1 and only a dozen or so in Legue One/Div 3, the rest in the Championship/Div 2. Depends rather on how much their stadium rebuild effects their finances.

clint van damme · Thursday at 11:07 AM

KenilworthSkyBlue said:
There's no guarantee that they'll come back up either. Any decent players they have will be sold and the majority of existing PL money and parachute payments has probably already gone / is going towards their new stadium.

L1 is also much more competitive now. There's a lot of clubs that are happy to throw money about.

Personally I think if they do get relegated it will be a bit disastrous.

Though about the time they'll be looking to move into their new stadium, we'll be coming to the end of another short term lease and wondering where the fuck we'll be playing our home games again.

KenilworthSkyBlue · Thursday at 11:13 AM

clint van damme said:
Though about the time they'll be looking to move into their new stadium, we'll be coming to the end of another short term lease and wondering where the fuck we'll be playing our home games again.

Interesting you should raise that as I recently heard from a contact that DK is getting increasingly twitchy about that, namely regarding FG skyrocketing the rent upon the license's expiry.

clint van damme · Thursday at 11:16 AM

KenilworthSkyBlue said:
Interesting you should raise that as I recently heard from a contact that DK is getting increasingly twitchy about that, namely regarding FG skyrocketing the rent upon the license's expiry.

That doesn't surprise me one bit.
And it's just the sort of stunt I can imagine FG pulling.

Lamps · Thursday at 11:34 AM

Captain Dart said:
I think they will be OK, they are a club with a Championship pedigree. Since 1960 they spent more than 20 seasons in the Prem/Div 1 and only a dozen or so in Legue One/Div 3, the rest in the Championship/Div 2. Depends rather on how much their stadium rebuild effects their finances.

I remember when we got relegated from the Prem. Thought we would compete each season until we went back up. Our only half decent finish was the Wise season. When we eventually got relegated to League 1 I thought we would go straight back up.....

League 2? Could only be a walkover. But we looked closer to non league than promotion until we got a run together then scraping into the playoffs.

Momentum is massive. They flew through the divisions. They could fall back down just as easy as recover.

KenilworthSkyBlue · Thursday at 11:36 AM

clint van damme said:
That doesn't surprise me one bit.
And it's just the sort of stunt I can imagine FG pulling.

Perhaps more concerningly alternative stadiums were mooted. Obviously as a last resort, but from my perspective there's definitely an air of: 'jumped out of the pan into the fire' with FG.

clint van damme · Thursday at 11:42 AM

KenilworthSkyBlue said:
Perhaps more concerningly alternative stadiums were mooted. Obviously as a last resort, but from my perspective there's definitely an air of: 'jumped out of the pan into the fire' with FG.

Bloody hell, here we (potentially) go again!

And this is why Im a bit taken aback by the criticism on this thread of Luton.

Long term they're currently in a much better position than us.

Hopefully we get a new lease gets sorted but until its long term we're going to keep finding ourselves back in this position.

Nick · Thursday at 11:47 AM

clint van damme said:
Though about the time they'll be looking to move into their new stadium, we'll be coming to the end of another short term lease and wondering where the fuck we'll be playing our home games again.

We won't; we will be at the CBS.

clint van damme · Thursday at 11:51 AM

Nick said:
We won't; we will be at the CBS.

Hopefully!
I've done the, 'don't be daft, we're going nowhere' bit before, and we all know how that ended so I'm remaining cautious.
Not that what I think matters anyway.

KenilworthSkyBlue · Thursday at 11:51 AM

clint van damme said:
Bloody hell, here we (potentially) go again!

And this is why Im a bit taken aback by the criticism on this thread of Luton.

Long term they're currently in a much better position than us.

Hopefully we get a new lease gets sorted but until its long term we're going to keep finding ourselves back in this position.

This isn't a SISU / ACL scenario, I know we've all said it before but I'd be astounded if that were to happen. FG will want to have a successful football club at the stadium. It makes no financial sense to drive us out.

That being said they do obviously have their own agendas and if they're seeing 80-90% of the stadium full week in week out, 7 figure transfer fees received etc. then they're obviously going to look at how they can capitalise from that , even if the club is likely still running at a fairly sizeable loss.

We don't want to be paying over the earth in rent for a stadium while we're playing in the Championship though, as financially it's completely unsustainable and will lead to issues down the line if we don't get promoted.

David O'Day · Thursday at 12:27 PM

Lads, we're not going to be moving. FG aren't going to force their anchor tenant out as there's no one else to take over from us.

let's not get stupid over what someone online says someone else has told them

KenilworthSkyBlue · Thursday at 12:36 PM

David O'Day said:
Lads, we're not going to be moving. FG aren't going to force their anchor tenant out as there's no one else to take over from us.

let's not get stupid over what someone online says someone else has told them

Well done for repeating exactly what I've just said. The rent scenario still remains a significant issue long-term though.

clint van damme · Thursday at 12:36 PM

David O'Day said:
Lads, we're not going to be moving. FG aren't going to force their anchor tenant out as there's no one else to take over from us.

let's not get stupid over what someone online says someone else has told them

They might hike the rent up though, which will impact the club.
That's not such a wild scenario.
And we're going to keep coming back to this point on a regular basis until we get either a new ground, (highly doubtful), or a long term tenancy.

KenilworthSkyBlue · Thursday at 12:40 PM

clint van damme said:
They might hike the rent up though, which will impact the club.
That's not such a wild scenario.
And we're going to keep coming back to this point on a regular basis until we get either a new ground, (highly doubtful), or a long term tenancy.

The rent is already far too high apparently. I definitely share DK's concern if he's been told or even caught wind that it's likely to increase upon the club extending its license or lease dependent on what's agreed. It's not sustainable if we remain in the Championship, that's an objective fact.

Sky Blue Goblin · Thursday at 12:40 PM

Okay head gone earlier

But on this topic if Frasers look to push rent so much that the club considers a future home, what would be the long term hope for the arena.

If the club ever did move to let’s say the University of Warwick Ground, the stadium would be commercially hamstrung that it would have to radically change the business idea.

David O'Day · Thursday at 12:41 PM

clint van damme said:
They might hike the rent up though, which will impact the club.
That's not such a wild scenario.
And we're going to keep coming back to this point on a regular basis until we get either a new ground, (highly doubtful), or a long term tenancy.

No, they'll not just hike it up as they need us as much as we need them. The arena makes no sense as a business without us there.

Let's not go back down this bullshit route based on what someone claims their mate has said.

David O'Day · Thursday at 12:41 PM

Sky Blue Goblin said:
Okay head gone earlier

But on this topic if Frasers look to push rent so much that the club considers a future home, what would be the long term hope for the arena.

If the club ever did move to let’s say the University of Warwick Ground, the stadium would be commercially hamstrung that it would have to radically change the business idea.

FG are too good at business to let that happen, they would devalue their own business too much.

Levship20 · Thursday at 12:43 PM

David O'Day said:
No, they'll not just hike it up as they need us as much as we need them. The arena makes no sense as a business without us there.

Let's not go back down this bullshit route based on what someone claims their mate has said.

Does the FG want the club? No rumours or anything like that, just a thought

Sky Blue Goblin · Thursday at 12:44 PM

David O'Day said:
FG are too good at business to let that happen, they would devalue their own business too much.

Thats my thinking too for what it’s worth. Might be a bit of blinkmanship by both parties though to get the best deal

Sky Blue Goblin · Thursday at 12:45 PM

Levship20 said:
Does the FG want the club? No rumours or anything like that, just a thought

There were rumours once they bought the stadium, they would then go for the club but never happened

KenilworthSkyBlue · Thursday at 12:45 PM

David O'Day said:
FG are too good at business to let that happen, they would devalue their own business too much.

You do realise the club has absolutely zero leverage don't you.

There's no option of playing elsewhere, the vast majority of clubs turned us down last time and Birmingham only took us in because we were willing to pay £1m worth of rent. The CBS is it so that's where we'll play.

FG are more than entitled to increase the rent to whatever they see fit. As mentioned, if they're seeing the club attract an average gate of 26k, sell players for 7 figure windfalls and bring in names such Monzo as sponsors, there's a perception that the club can afford it.

David O'Day · Thursday at 12:46 PM

Levship20 said:
Does the FG want the club? No rumours or anything like that, just a thought

Probably not, it loses money and it would take a massive investment to get it to a level where it wouldn't.

David O'Day · Thursday at 12:47 PM

Sky Blue Goblin said:
Thats my thinking too for what it’s worth. Might be a bit of blinkmanship by both parties though to get the best deal

yeah, they'll haggle until they reach a fee both teams can live with

clint van damme · Thursday at 12:48 PM

David O'Day said:
No, they'll not just hike it up as they need us as much as we need them. The arena makes no sense as a business without us there.

Let's not go back down this bullshit route based on what someone claims their mate has said.

What's to stop them?
Just say the rent is 1 million and the double it to 2, I doubt King will walk away over a million so we'll just have to suck it up.
It will be a topic of debate every few years until we secure something long term.

Sky Blue Goblin · Thursday at 12:48 PM

KenilworthSkyBlue said:
You do realise the club has absolutely zero leverage don't you.

There's no option of playing elsewhere, the vast majority of clubs turned us down last time and Birmingham only took us in because we were willing to pay £1m worth of rent. The CBS is it so that's where we'll play.

FG are more than entitled to increase the rent to whatever they see fit. As mentioned, if they're seeing the club attract an average gate of 26k, sell players for 7 figure windfalls and bring in names such Monzo as sponsors, there's a perception that the club can afford it.

That’s not really the point, it’s more the long term damage of an unsustainable rent increase.

The club as you say will agree to the rent increase but will start to seriously look elsewhere for the long term solution.

TomRad85 · Thursday at 12:49 PM

clint van damme said:
They might hike the rent up though, which will impact the club.
That's not such a wild scenario.
And we're going to keep coming back to this point on a regular basis until we get either a new ground, (highly doubtful), or a long term tenancy.

Hope not, i've always felt surely the Arena attracts more local visitors for things outside football when on good terms with the football club? I didn't even like watching us there when Wasps owned it and wouldn't have dreamed going for any other reason. I would hope FG sees the value of the good relationship that currently seems to be there.

Sky Blue Goblin · Thursday at 12:50 PM

Didn’t the CBS only invest in the naming rights due to the football club returning due to the ill feeling around it. Can’t imagine they would be happy with the club leaving again

KenilworthSkyBlue · Thursday at 12:50 PM

Levship20 said:
Does the FG want the club? No rumours or anything like that, just a thought

No. Ashley has turned his attention to stadiums I think. I believe he was looking at Headingly a year or so ago but the deal collapsed.

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