Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (340 Viewers)

Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Jun 19, 2020

SkyBlueDom26 said:
Errrrr it’s common sense to think that 1m instead of 2 will have less of an impact on people’s lives and they economy, are you stupid?

Until someone picks up an infection through close contact and it results in them being hospitalised or dying. I think that would be considered having a major impact on their lives don't you?

In certain instances, such as outside for short periods of time in contact 1m would be fine. Closed indoor environment with largely stationery people 2m is probably too low. You'd be amazed at how far you can transport pathogens just with normal behaviour, let alone if someone coughs or sneezes. Did you see the research that showed just flushing your toilet can lead to the germs landing 3m away?

Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Jun 19, 2020

SkyBlueDom26 said:
Yeah I want it to be safe obviously but it needs to be sped up

And if one has to be given precendence over the other which do you choose?

skybluetony176 · Jun 19, 2020

Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
Until someone picks up an infection through close contact and it results in them being hospitalised or dying. I think that would be considered having a major impact on their lives don't you?

In certain instances, such as outside for short periods of time in contact 1m would be fine. Closed indoor environment with largely stationery people 2m is probably too low. You'd be amazed at how far you can transport pathogens just with normal behaviour, let alone if someone coughs or sneezes. Did you see the research that showed just flushing your toilet can lead to the germs landing 3m away?

skybluetony176 · Jun 19, 2020

dubed said:
View attachment 15531

As a little extra to myself over this difficult period, I bought a little dual sports bike. Decals arrived today.

What model did you get? Planning on some green laining?

chiefdave · Jun 19, 2020

SkyBlueDom26 said:
WHO recommends 1M, why are you lot so for having the 2M rule, it will kill the economy if it’s that much any longer....do you not think about how many people will lose their jobs and livelihoods?

But you weren't talking about WHO, you were saying SAGE had said the rule should be changed "SAGE confirming the virus is going away and therefore we need to cut the 2m rule ASAP" when they've done nothing of the sort.

That has nothing to do with my thoughts on relaxing it, the economy or anything else. In fact members of SAGE dispute the WHO advise:

Senior scientists have reported flaws in an influential World Health Organization-commissioned study into the risks of coronavirus infection and say it should not be used as evidence for relaxing the UK’s 2-metre physical distancing rule.

Critics of the distancing advice, which states that people should keep at least 2 metres apart, believe it is too cautious. They seized on the research commissioned by the WHO, which suggested a reduction from 2 metres to 1 would raise infection risk only marginally, from 1.3% to 2.6%.

But scientists who delved into the work found mistakes they believe undermine the findings to the point they cannot be relied upon when scientists and ministers are forming judgments about what constitutes safe physical distancing.

“The analysis of infection risk at 1 metre versus 2 metre should be treated with great caution,” said Prof David Spiegelhalter, a statistician at Cambridge University, who has participated in the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies . “I’m very suspicious of it.”

Prof Kevin McConway, an applied statistician at the Open University, went further and called the analysis inappropriate. He said the work “should not be used in arguments about how much greater the infection risk is at 1-metre minimum distance as opposed to 2 metres”.

There's also doubt from within WHO itself:

Prof Ben Cowling at the WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control at the University of Hong Kong, flagged further issues with the work. He tweeted that he was “not taking the whole paper very seriously” because it looked only at distance and not how long a person was exposed for.

McConway said he had raised questions about the analysis with the authors and was waiting to hear back. He believed peer review by the Lancet and the WHO should have spotted the problems. “I think they did it in such a rush – the authors, possibly the WHO, and the Lancet peer reviewers – that important things were missed,” he said.

Finally if you read the actual paper being referred to it makes no mention of reducing from 2m to 1m, it talks about the effectiveness of distancing of 1m or more: "Transmission of viruses was lower with physical distancing of 1m or more, compared with a distance of less than 1m; protection was increased as distance was lengthened."

hill83 · Jun 19, 2020

HE'S ON A WIND UP EVERYONE

chiefdave · Jun 19, 2020

Ian1779 said:
Australia have no social distancing in their schools at all. But then they’ve only had 102 deaths in this entire outbreak.

This was published the other day by Sick Kids Hospital in Toronto which basically says crack on with sending kids back to school in September.
SickKids releases recommendations for school reopening

David O'Day · Jun 19, 2020

hill83 said:
HE'S ON A WIND UP EVERYONE

Beginning to think that but he is a moron still.

He gets confused by alphabetti spaghetti.

Sky Blue Pete · Jun 19, 2020

Infections slightly up and 173 deaths

I do hope Dom and saddlebrains are correct but I can’t help feel much like my own family who’ve not watched as people’s lungs cease to work that unless they see it with their own eyes they won’t believe how serious it is

shmmeee · Jun 19, 2020

Being dense here, but how can infections be going up and R0 be below 1?

Sky Blue Pete · Jun 19, 2020

shmmeee said:
Being dense here, but how can infections be going up and R0 be below 1?

What was last Friday? We are looking like Iran but it is only the last few days it’s gradually increased

shmmeee · Jun 19, 2020

1541 last Friday. So trend still down. I guess it could be natural fluctuations in recording.

SkyBlueDom26 · Jun 19, 2020

[

shmmeee said:
Being dense here, but how can infections be going up and R0 be below 1?

More testing mate

Brighton Sky Blue · Jun 19, 2020

Sky Blue Pete said:
Infections slightly up and 173 deaths

I do hope Dom and saddlebrains are correct but I can’t help feel much like my own family who’ve not watched as people’s lungs cease to work that unless they see it with their own eyes they won’t believe how serious it is

In the shop today loads of people meeting up for chats and putting back loads of stuff they’ve touched. It isn’t lockdown really now is it

shmmeee · Jun 19, 2020

Brighton Sky Blue said:
In the shop today loads of people meeting up for chats and putting back loads of stuff they’ve touched. It isn’t lockdown really now is it

Literally the only thing left of lockdown is people’s own judgement and queues outside shops. Inside it’s a free for all and round by me I’m seeing people visiting each other no distancing left right and centre.

By trying to be clever and not have a lockdown but still have a lockdown they’ll probably achieve the opposite and everyone will be too worried to get the economy back without a clear sign it’s all clear.

Sky Blue Pete · Jun 19, 2020

shmmeee said:
Literally the only thing left of lockdown is people’s own judgement and queues outside shops. Inside it’s a free for all and round by me I’m seeing people visiting each other no distancing left right and centre.

By trying to be clever and not have a lockdown but still have a lockdown they’ll probably achieve the opposite and everyone will be too worried to get the economy back without a clear sign it’s all clear.

Yep I think we’re all doomed

Brighton Sky Blue · Jun 19, 2020

shmmeee said:
Literally the only thing left of lockdown is people’s own judgement and queues outside shops. Inside it’s a free for all and round by me I’m seeing people visiting each other no distancing left right and centre.

By trying to be clever and not have a lockdown but still have a lockdown they’ll probably achieve the opposite and everyone will be too worried to get the economy back without a clear sign it’s all clear.

That and people letting their children go around touching everything. Either we have a virus on the loose or we don’t, just make your mind up

David O'Day · Jun 19, 2020

SkyBlueDom26 said:
[

More testing mate

not really, only 169k test which means it's only likely to be 85k people tested.

that positive figure means there are still likely to be 5 to 6k community transmissions a day which is at least 50 to 60 people dead

David O'Day · Jun 19, 2020

Also if you look at the figures at least 44k of the tests were pillar 3 which is antibody testing i.e. testing for people who hd the virus in the past. So there has only been about 120k antigen tests carried out

David O'Day · Jun 19, 2020

Plus out of the antigen testing 51k were tests not taken but "sent out" so you are looking at about 70k antigen tests undertaken. So maybe 35k people

Pathetic

Number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in the UK

Ian1779 · Jun 19, 2020

shmmeee said:
Being dense here, but how can infections be going up and R0 be below 1?

It could be regional fluctuations - there may well be parts of the UK where R is actually 1.

fernandopartridge · Jun 19, 2020

My missus got a letter through today inviting her to take part in the Imperial study on antibody testing

fernandopartridge · Jun 19, 2020

shmmeee said:
By trying to be clever and not have a lockdown but still have a lockdown they’ll probably achieve the opposite and everyone will be too worried to get the economy back without a clear sign it’s all clear.

Yeah, i think amongst anybody with any sort of critical faculty trust in government advice is so low that they're likely to carry on with lockdown. Like I said in the thread earlier, i think the reduction in threat level is a nudge rather than anything backed up by scientific fact.

clint van damme · Jun 19, 2020

fernandopartridge said:
My missus got a letter through today inviting her to take part in the Imperial study on antibody testing

What does that entail?

fernandopartridge · Jun 19, 2020

clint van damme said:
What does that entail?

A man or woman working for Royal Mail usually post them through what's known as a 'letterbox' in your front door.

clint van damme · Jun 19, 2020

fernandopartridge said:
A man or woman working for Royal Mail usually post them through what's known as a 'letterbox' in your front door.

I'm still none the wiser!
Edit - just looked it up. Finger prick blood sample.

hill83 · Jun 19, 2020

Went to a supermarket for the first time today since lockdown and it was a total free for all including staff not giving a shit.

The woman working on the self service tills had to check and scan for me because of a can of red bull. No mask, right in my face. "Sorry love" makes it ok though. I didn't have time to stand back out of the way.

fernandopartridge · Jun 19, 2020

clint van damme said:
I'm still none the wiser!
Edit - just looked it up. Finger prick blood sample.

It doesn't actually say on the letter, here was me hoping it'd be 4 weeks at a scientific facility on the Isle of Man

clint van damme · Jun 19, 2020

hill83 said:
Went to a supermarket for the first time today since lockdown and it was a total free for all including staff not giving a shit.

The woman working on the self service tills had to check and scan for me because of a can of red bull. No mask, right in my face. "Sorry love" makes it ok though. I didn't have time to stand back out of the way.

That's bad but it hasn't been my experience at all in the supermarkets I've been in.

pipkin73 · Jun 19, 2020

We start our new normal on Sunday and we will still have to maintain 1.5m distancing and if you can't then wear a mask. Fines of up to 100€ for being caught with out one.

Deleted member 5849 · Jun 19, 2020

clint van damme said:
That's bad but it hasn't been my experience at all in the supermarkets I've been in.

Maybe it's partly perspective. I haven't been in many, really didn't enjoy M&S last time as it was too small for the number of people in it - people queuing up the aisles! Going to try a shop or two next week though, see how it is.

David O'Day · Jun 19, 2020

hill83 · Jun 19, 2020

David O'Day said:

David O'Day · Jun 19, 2020

No experts at the press briefing today.

Always telling

covmark · Jun 19, 2020

hill83 said:
Went to a supermarket for the first time today since lockdown and it was a total free for all including staff not giving a shit.

The woman working on the self service tills had to check and scan for me because of a can of red bull. No mask, right in my face. "Sorry love" makes it ok though. I didn't have time to stand back out of the way.

Similar experience for me. I do the weekly Tesco shop and before today, it was all pretty well respected, wrt one way systems etc.
Today was completely different. No one seems to give a fuck anymore. No sanitiser outside to clean the trolley handles. No staff outside handing out trolleys.
Staff not adhering to the one way systems. Complete free for all.

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Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (340 Viewers)

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