Do you want to discuss boring politics? (41 Viewers)

CCFCSteve · Aug 30, 2024

Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
Of course higher population and not building an equivalent number of homes, as well as things like more single person households etc have a big effect.

But the fact is far more people are now renting rather than owner occupied. If most people want to buy a house to live in then why as some many more houses becoming private rented and HMO's? Because people are not buying them to live in, they are buying them as investments. And because it's a business they can afford to offer more for houses than someone looking to just live in them as they'll have a return from it. And so pushes the price up even more.

Looking at the stats households occupied by private rents peaked in 2017 and has dropped slightly since. The problem has been population growth (grown by 3m since 2017) and not enough houses being built.

What’s happened though is due to the squeeze on available rental stock (as some landlords have sold up) and significant population growth, in conjunction with interest rate increases, rent prices have shot up to ridiculous levels meaning it’s even harder for renters to save a deposit

People just don’t seem to want to accept that some of the countries housing and infrastructure problems have been caused by (or at least a significant contribution from) a total lack of control of net migration numbers.

Again this isn’t to say we don’t need net migration just that at the numbers in the hundreds of thousands per annum, infrastructure and housing can’t keep up. Maybe the change in planning laws and better control of numbers with help a bit going forward

OffenhamSkyBlue · Aug 30, 2024

shmmeee said:
Im seeing a gap for a new party. Encourage smoking, drinking, sky diving, motorcycle riding, solve the NHS funding crisis and have a great time doing it.

Ideal opportunity for Clarkson if his pub venture doesn't work out!

chiefdave · Aug 30, 2024

Can only really put my own experience but I live in an area where there’s not really any students and the property is not suitable for HMOs. It’s an area that you’d say is traditionally virtual all owner occupied.

When I moved here initially I rented while I looked for somewhere to buy. Took literally years as the second properties came on the market they were snapped up at full asking price by buy to let landlords. Took a while before a couple of estate agents let on that was what was happening.

I would estimate we’re approaching 50% of the properties being rented. You can walk round the area and see the poorly maintained houses and match them to old rental listings online.

Either side of me is rented. Both want to buy somewhere but are struggling to save a deposit while paying high rent and even if they could they have the problem of actually finding somewhere.

I’m about to remortgage, my mortgage will increase substantially. It will still only be about 65% of what I was paying in rent.

The system is fundamentally broken and needs more than minor changes on the fringes to fix it.

Brighton Sky Blue · Aug 30, 2024

CCFCSteve said:
Looking at the stats households occupied by private rents peaked in 2017 and has dropped slightly since. The problem has been population growth (grown by 3m since 2017) and not enough houses being built.

What’s happened though is due to the squeeze on available rental stock (as some landlords have sold up) and significant population growth, in conjunction with interest rate increases, rent prices have shot up to ridiculous levels meaning it’s even harder for renters to save a deposit

People just don’t seem to want to accept that some of the countries housing and infrastructure problems have been caused by (or at least a significant contribution from) a total lack of control of net migration numbers.

Again this isn’t to say we don’t need net migration just that at the numbers in the hundreds of thousands per annum, infrastructure and housing can’t keep up. Maybe the change in planning laws and better control of numbers with help a bit going forward

Look at what comprises those numbers Steve, the vast majority is for either study or work. If it’s for work, maybe ask why British workers aren’t filling those positions and you’ll have a starting point to getting the numbers more manageable.

CCFCSteve · Aug 30, 2024

Brighton Sky Blue said:
Look at what comprises those numbers Steve, the vast majority is for either study or work. If it’s for work, maybe ask why British workers aren’t filling those positions and you’ll have a starting point to getting the numbers more manageable.

I’ve been saying for years we’ve needed a industrial strategy/workforce plan to ensure we have people trained in the right areas. In very simple terms, over the years we’ve had a flow of cheap available labour which meant there was little incentive for businesses to raise wages, invest in retraining/upskilling employees or unemployed and/or invest more in efficient equipment and machinery.

Basically successive governments (both colours) have allowed/encouraged this as it avoids the more difficult stuff

shmmeee · Aug 30, 2024

MalcSB said:
Come off it, that’s not the reason house prices are so high. Population increase leading to increased demand is the underlying reason. Many buy to let investors have been selling their properties because the way the income is taxed means a significant number aren’t making a profit from the rent. The threat of increased capital gains tax will probably accelerate that trend.

According to your theory, everyone who wants to buy will then be able to. It will just be those who want to rent who will be in the shit.

We’ve got a system that allows homeowners to artificially inflate their asset value by refusing any new stock being built.

chiefdave said:
Can only really put my own experience but I live in an area where there’s not really any students and the property is not suitable for HMOs. It’s an area that you’d say is traditionally virtual all owner occupied.

When I moved here initially I rented while I looked for somewhere to buy. Took literally years as the second properties came on the market they were snapped up at full asking price by buy to let landlords. Took a while before a couple of estate agents let on that was what was happening.

I would estimate we’re approaching 50% of the properties being rented. You can walk round the area and see the poorly maintained houses and match them to old rental listings online.

Either side of me is rented. Both want to buy somewhere but are struggling to save a deposit while paying high rent and even if they could they have the problem of actually finding somewhere.

I’m about to remortgage, my mortgage will increase substantially. It will still only be about 65% of what I was paying in rent.

The system is fundamentally broken and needs more than minor changes on the fringes to fix it.

We literally just need more supply.

Restricting supply is what’s lead to price increases and price increases lead to scumbag landlords.

You can whine about the number of people, but the British obsession with house prices predates any significant immigration issues. And unless you’re demanding forced deportation of people with a right to live here it’s crying over spilt milk.

If the government went hell for leather building social housing and massively increasing supply in the south east, you could fix it. A lot of unhappy turkey teeth TikTok finance types would be unhappy as would a lot of Daily Mail reading types and many people who have recently bought and are over leveraged (possibly including you and me). But apparently we have a government all about tough unpopular decisions these days.

MalcSB · Aug 30, 2024

shmmeee said:
We’ve got a system that allows homeowners to artificially inflate their asset value by refusing any new stock being built.

We literally just need more supply.

Restricting supply is what’s lead to price increases and price increases lead to scumbag landlords.

You can whine about the number of people, but the British obsession with house prices predates any significant immigration issues. And unless you’re demanding forced deportation of people with a right to live here it’s crying over spilt milk.

If the government went hell for leather building social housing and massively increasing supply in the south east, you could fix it. A lot of unhappy turkey teeth TikTok finance types would be unhappy as would a lot of Daily Mail reading types and many people who have recently bought and are over leveraged (possibly including you and me). But apparently we have a government all about tough unpopular decisions these days.

Given all homeowners are refusing the building of new stock, I am astonished at the number of current and recent building developments I see as I drive around Nottinghamshire.

The issue in terms of population is that, at current levels, future immigration will take up all of the housing the Labour government are planning to have built, net effect will be zero.

wingy · Aug 30, 2024

MalcSB said:
Given all homeowners are refusing the building of new stock, I am astonished at the number of current and recent building developments I see as I drive around Nottinghamshire.

The issue in terms of population is that, at current levels, future immigration will take up all of the housing the Labour government are planning to have built, net effect will be zero.

I've got to pull you up on those stats,it only comes out at 99%total not 100%, questionable!!

shmmeee · Aug 30, 2024

MalcSB said:
Given all homeowners are refusing the building of new stock, I am astonished at the number of current and recent building developments I see as I drive around Nottinghamshire.

The issue in terms of population is that, at current levels, future immigration will take up all of the housing the Labour government are planning to have built, net effect will be zero.

Then we need to build even more.

wingy · Aug 30, 2024

MalcSB said:
You are just plain wrong. This shows the number who are now renting. Also, as I understand it, rents have been increasing. Part of that will be because of increased buy to let mortgage costs, part to the change in how rents are taxed but the major part will be insufficient properties available. That is because of increasing population. The indigenous population is pretty static.

How Many UK Households Rent vs. Own?
According to NimbleFins analysis of data from the 2023 English Housing Survey, just over one third of households rent their home (35%); another third owns their home outright (35%); and just under a third owns their home with a mortgage (29%) in the UK.

How many people rent vs. own their home in the UK? Number Percentage
Number of Mortgage Holders 7,196,140 29%
Number of Renters 8,601,025 35%
Number Owning House Outright 8,610,768 35%
Total Households 24,407,932 100%

Have to ask, how many of owned outright are bought without a mortgage and the % on that as a change of say 20-30years ago ,ooh and %change between public provided property over private provision?

Nick · Aug 30, 2024

What's the % on every new estate that goes to social housing nowadays?

I'm not sure I'd ever want to buy a new build.

The other issue is infrastructure, there are thousands of new houses going up near Keresley / Hare and Hounds / Corley but how many new schools are being built with it? How many new doctors surgeries to cover them?

MalcSB · Aug 30, 2024

wingy said:
I've got to pull you up on those stats,it only comes out at 99%total not 100%, questionable!!

Rounding effect I would imagine. Plus of course it’s government‘s data, and as Sir Keir will tell you, you can’t trust that.

wingy said:
Have to ask, how many of owned outright are bought without a mortgage and the % on that as a change of say 20-30years ago ,ooh and %change between public provided property over private provision?

who knows, who cares (other than you) and does it make any difference to the fact that most people do not now rent?

shmmeee · Aug 30, 2024

Nick said:
What's the % on every new estate that goes to social housing nowadays?

I'm not sure I'd ever want to buy a new build.

The other issue is infrastructure, there are thousands of new houses going up near Keresley / Hare and Hounds / Corley but how many new schools are being built with it? How many new doctors surgeries to cover them?

We’re not building proper communities. The places people want to live are generally old villages that had their own high street and amenities and got eaten by the city like Earlsdon. At best you seem to get a couple of shops with some flats above them but hardly a proper centre to the community.

MalcSB · Aug 30, 2024

wingy said:
Have to ask, how many of owned outright are bought without a mortgage and the % on that as a change of say 20-30years ago ,ooh and %change between public provided property over private provision?

Does this help with some of your questions? BTW there’s a really handy thing called Google that might help as well.

OffenhamSkyBlue · Aug 30, 2024

Nick said:
What's the % on every new estate that goes to social housing nowadays?

I'm not sure I'd ever want to buy a new build.

The other issue is infrastructure, there are thousands of new houses going up near Keresley / Hare and Hounds / Corley but how many new schools are being built with it? How many new doctors surgeries to cover them?

It's usually a minimum of 10% affordable housing. That could be social but is also shared-ownership with Housing Associations and the like.
I don't recall off the top of my head if that figure is based on local policy in Development Plans or from the NPPF.

Of course, they could say they will include more than 10% but developers will usually argue that it is not financially viable to build fewer 4/5 bed houses in favour of 2/3 bed, or flats, or bungalows which take up the same space but bring them less income.
We are about to have a 25 unit in-fill development built in our village which is ALL social rented (via Housing Association), private rented (with a rent cap) and shared ownership. It is Wychavon DC's first foray into building what approximates to council houses for about 30 years.

MalcSB · Aug 30, 2024

Nick said:
What's the % on every new estate that goes to social housing nowadays?

I'm not sure I'd ever want to buy a new build.

The other issue is infrastructure, there are thousands of new houses going up near Keresley / Hare and Hounds / Corley but how many new schools are being built with it? How many new doctors surgeries to cover them?

How many more hospital beds? How many ambulances?
None.

Nick · Aug 30, 2024

shmmeee said:
We’re not building proper communities. The places people want to live are generally old villages that had their own high street and amenities and got eaten by the city like Earlsdon. At best you seem to get a couple of shops with some flats above them but hardly a proper centre to the community.

Exactly, there's no new primary schools popping up and certainly no pubs or anything like that.

It seems like it's just find some land and whack shit loads of houses up. The same as in Exhall off School Lane etc, it means the local schools will be even more full.

chiefdave · Aug 30, 2024

Nick said:
What's the % on every new estate that goes to social housing nowadays?

I'm not sure I'd ever want to buy a new build.

The other issue is infrastructure, there are thousands of new houses going up near Keresley / Hare and Hounds / Corley but how many new schools are being built with it? How many new doctors surgeries to cover them?

The was a vocal minority who absolutely lost their minds at the idea of 15 minutes cities.

You’ve got developers who don’t want to build amenities because there’s no profit in that, councils that can’t afford to and even if you can get round both those problems you’ve got people actively campaigning against it!

MalcSB · Aug 30, 2024

@wingy another one for you. I think the x- axis is a bit screwed because I’m looking on my iPad. Will check n the iMac later

MalcSB · Aug 30, 2024

Nick said:
Exactly, there's no new primary schools popping up and certainly no pubs or anything like that.

It seems like it's just find some land and whack shit loads of houses up. The same as in Exhall off School Lane etc, it means the local schools will be even more full.

You won’t need any more pubs once the 3 mile smoking exclusion zone is introduced.

Nick · Aug 30, 2024

MalcSB said:
You won’t need any more pubs once the 3 mile smoking exclusion zone is introduced.

Need more working men's clubs!

MalcSB · Aug 30, 2024

chiefdave said:
The was a vocal minority who absolutely lost their minds at the idea of 15 minutes cities.

You’ve got developers who don’t want to build amenities because there’s no profit in that, councils that can’t afford to and even if you can get round both those problems you’ve got people actively campaigning against it!

You can‘t build a city in 15 minutes, even Rome wasn’t built in a day!

MalcSB · Aug 30, 2024

Nick said:
Need more working men's clubs!

Didn’t a lot of them go to the wall when the smoking ban came in?

Nick · Aug 30, 2024

MalcSB said:
Didn’t a lot of them go to the wall when the smoking ban came in?

Yeah but there's still a few about but I guess they will all die out when the couple of current generations die too.

Usually a massive part of the community.

wingy · Aug 30, 2024

MalcSB said:
Didn’t a lot of them go to the wall w(en the smoking ban came in?

Not really it started in the Thatcher era, not that I'm solely hanging it on, thinking we debated such on here and their demise was largely due to the effects of the e world and everyone getting on the mortgage trail,at least that's my recollection of it?

MalcSB · Aug 30, 2024

This i

wingy said:
Not really it started in the Thatcher era, not that I'm solely hanging it on, thinking we debated such on here and their demise was largely due to the effects of the e world and everyone getting on the mortgage trail,at least that's my recollection of it?

My recollection is that there were loads in the early 90’s. Did having a mortgage preclude people from being members of working men’s clubs?

wingy · Aug 30, 2024

MalcSB said:
This i

My recollection is that there were loads in the early 90’s. Did having a mortgage preclude people from being members of working men’s clubs?

Seemed so for me, but I'm just one!

Sick Boy · Aug 30, 2024

MalcSB said:
@wingy another one for you. I think the x- axis is a bit screwed because I’m looking on my iPad. Will check n the iMac later

View attachment 38141

Nice humble brag.

MalcSB · Aug 30, 2024

Sick Boy said:
Nice humble brag.

I didn’t mention the MacBook Pro though!

I hasten to add, the iMac and MacBook are 8 years old and operated by steam.

MalcSB · Aug 30, 2024

Four-day week: Workers' rights could be strengthened

Employees could get greater powers to work their contracted hours over fewer days.

www.bbc.co.uk

At least you will be able to park at UHCW on Fridays.

chiefdave · Aug 30, 2024

MalcSB said:
Four-day week: Workers' rights could be strengthened

Employees could get greater powers to work their contracted hours over fewer days.

www.bbc.co.uk

At least you will be able to park at UHCW on Fridays.

Not really a 4 day week in the way most people talk about it.

This proposal would be, for example, 4 10 hour days rather than 5 8 hours days. An actual 4 day week as implemented elsewhere would be 4 8 hour days.

Of course they’ve already given companies an easy out as it can only be implemented where the company feels it is feasible.

As we already have a right to flexible working, at least in theory, not sure this will be a big change.

What would happen to people in my position? I’m salaried for 40 hours a week but in reality do 50+ Do I now get every Friday off?

Sick Boy · Aug 30, 2024

MalcSB said:
I didn’t mention the MacBook Pro though!

I hasten to add, the iMac and MacBook are 8 years old and operated by steam.

Haha,I’m just jealous of the iMac! I’m the same, my MBP is also 8 years old and sounds more and more like a helicopter as each day goes by.

chiefdave · Aug 30, 2024

shmmeee · Aug 30, 2024

chiefdave said:

We love a ban.

MalcSB · Aug 30, 2024

chiefdave said:
Not really a 4 day week in the way most people talk about it.

This proposal would be, for example, 4 10 hour days rather than 5 8 hours days. An actual 4 day week as implemented elsewhere would be 4 8 hour days.

Of course they’ve already given companies an easy out as it can only be implemented where the company feels it is feasible.

As we already have a right to flexible working, at least in theory, not sure this will be a big change.

What would happen to people in my position? I’m salaried for 40 hours a week but in reality do 50+ Do I now get every Friday off?

If people get the same pay for a 20% reduction in hours (5*8 down to 4*8) does that count as a 20% increase in salary? I can remember many years ago in the NHS as hours were reduced from 40 to 37 in a couple of stages that each reduction was presented to us as a pay rise. If it isn't, a productivity increase of 20% to make up for it seems pretty phenomenal to me.

Your last sentence is kind of where my thoughts were. I can't see the NHS letting people work a 4 day week. i would have loved to have worked my contracted hours over 4 days. The not contacting employees out of work hours is also interesting - could that mean that NHS (and others) on call would be disallowed.

One of the problems with these sorts of "rights" is that they are another possible cause of division between those that have them and the have nots.

Do you want to discuss boring politics? (41 Viewers)

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