Emperor's New Clothes (1 Viewer)

PVA · Jan 17, 2023

Frostie said:
As last season, we take a lot of shots from poor situations. We have more long shots than any other team in the league.

We may take lots of long shots but we still create a lot of really good chances.

We have the worst Goals - Expected Goals in the league! We're so wasteful .

shmmeee · Jan 17, 2023

PVA said:
We may take lots of long shots but we still create a lot of really good chances.

We have the worst Goals - Expected Goals in the league! We're so wasteful .

xG can be inflated with lots of shit chances tho

Frostie · Jan 17, 2023

PVA said:
We may take lots of long shots but we still create a lot of really good chances.

We have the worst Goals - Expected Goals in the league! We're so wasteful .

Yeah, I don't disagree on the whole, just adding more context.
We have also been awarded 5 penalties (2nd most) which will massively bump up the xG too.

PVA · Jan 17, 2023

shmmeee said:
xG can be inflated with lots of shit chances tho

It can be, but we're ranked 8th for shots per game and 8th for xG so I'd say that ties in quite nicely.

Yet we are:

21st for goals scored
Joint bottom for goals per shot
Bottom for goals per shot on target
Bottom for g-xG

I don't think creating chances is the problem at all, we are just rubbish at taking them

PVA · Jan 17, 2023

Frostie said:
Yeah, I don't disagree on the whole, just adding more context.
We have also been awarded 5 penalties (2nd most) which will massively bump up the xG too.

Yeah it does bump up the xG, but doesn't affect the 'non penalty xG-G', we're bottom whether you include pens or not unfortunately.

Calista · Jan 17, 2023

shmmeee said:
IMO our problem is final ball from the AMs and WBs, which is why I want Palmer and the new WBs to do well.

I think it's more that (Hamer aside) nobody has a decent shot on them. If Sheaf and O’Hare could shoot they wouldn’t be in this league, and if Allen could shoot he’d have ten this season already. The wing backs used so far have mostly been defenders, and the centre backs offer only minimal threat from set pieces. The jury is out on Palmer, although I reckon he’ll score a few if he stays fit. Godden is out for a while, and didn’t look sharp at all when he was playing. That basically leaves Vik to carry the burden, and strangely he’s not actually the greatest finisher – he could be on 20+ easily this season if he was.

I think we’re playing enjoyable entertaining football. We just haven’t been able to afford the kind of players who score for fun, and I have increasing doubts whether that is about to change.

Earlsdon_Skyblue1 · Jan 17, 2023

PVA said:
It can be, but we're ranked 8th for shots per game and 8th for xG so I'd say that ties in quite nicely.

Yet we are:

21st for goals scored
Joint bottom for goals per shot
Bottom for goals per shot on target
Bottom for g-xG

I don't think creating chances is the problem at all, we are just rubbish at taking them

Exactly. I don't think the semantics are that important. We're essentially in the relegation zone for the goals scored standing and that is the bit that matters. It's really poor.

It's got to the point, for me at least, when we come close I don't even celebrate it. It's just another frustration. Even in games where we have scored a lot of goals, there are always comments that 'we could have scored more'. In games that are close it's obviously worse because the fine margins mean a lot more.

We need another striker, and at least two midfielders that can actually put the ball into the net. I'm getting fed up with excuses for players that can't score because they have nice hair, drag the ball up the pitch, or occasionally put a good tackle in.

Grendel · Jan 17, 2023

shmmeee said:
This as well. Allen is good at arriving in the box but fucking useless when the ball actually gets to him.

Would love to see another striker or Godden back and 352 with Palmer alongside Sheaf and Hamer.

Mmmm

Kasey Palmer has scored 1 goals in 22 matches so far in the Championship 2022/2023 season. 1 of the 1 goals were scored at home while he scored 0 goals at away games. Overall, Kasey Palmer's goals scored per 90 minutes is 0.08. Moreover, Palmer's total goal-contribution (goals + assists) is 3. His goal involvement equates to 0.23 per 90 minutes. His Non-Penalty xG per 90 minutes is 0.10. This puts Palmer's npxG output at 1.32 which puts him in the top 68 percentile of Championship players.

Jamie Allen has scored 3 goals in 26 matches so far in the Championship 2022/2023 season. 2 of the 3 goals were scored at home while he scored 1 goals at away games. Overall, Jamie Allen's goals scored per 90 minutes is 0.13. Moreover, Allen's total goal-contribution (goals + assists) is 5. His goal involvement equates to 0.21 per 90 minutes. His Non-Penalty xG per 90 minutes is 0.12. This puts Allen's npxG output at 2.79 which puts him in the top 72 percentile of Championship players.

Grendel · Jan 17, 2023

Kasey Palmer has taken 18 shots in 22 matches so far in the Championship 2022/2023 season. Of the 18 shots, 7 shots were on target and the other 11 shots were off target. That means that Palmer's shooting accuracy is 38.89%. He scores a goal for every 18.00 shots he takes and takes 1.37 shots per 90 minutes on the pitch.

Jamie Allen has taken 25 shots in 26 matches so far in the Championship 2022/2023 season. Of the 25 shots, 13 shots were on target and the other 12 shots were off target. That means that Allen's shooting accuracy is 52.00%. He scores a goal for every 8.33 shots he takes and takes 1.07 shots per 90 minutes on the pitch.

shmmeee · Jan 17, 2023

Frostie said:
Yeah, I don't disagree on the whole, just adding more context.
We have also been awarded 5 penalties (2nd most) which will massively bump up the xG too.

Can you filter by xG at all? Would be interesting to see how many 0.5+ chances we’ve had (or a different threshold for “good chance”)

shmmeee · Jan 17, 2023

Grendel said:
Mmmm

Kasey Palmer has scored 1 goals in 22 matches so far in the Championship 2022/2023 season. 1 of the 1 goals were scored at home while he scored 0 goals at away games. Overall, Kasey Palmer's goals scored per 90 minutes is 0.08. Moreover, Palmer's total goal-contribution (goals + assists) is 3. His goal involvement equates to 0.23 per 90 minutes. His Non-Penalty xG per 90 minutes is 0.10. This puts Palmer's npxG output at 1.32 which puts him in the top 68 percentile of Championship players.

Jamie Allen has scored 3 goals in 26 matches so far in the Championship 2022/2023 season. 2 of the 3 goals were scored at home while he scored 1 goals at away games. Overall, Jamie Allen's goals scored per 90 minutes is 0.13. Moreover, Allen's total goal-contribution (goals + assists) is 5. His goal involvement equates to 0.21 per 90 minutes. His Non-Penalty xG per 90 minutes is 0.12. This puts Allen's npxG output at 2.79 which puts him in the top 72 percentile of Championship players.

Im not sure what copying the infogol blurb is supposed to prove here? I’ve said Palmer is having his worst goal scoring season of his career with us, but equally his involvements have been limited whereas Allen has played 90% of all possible minutes.

Skyblueweeman · Jan 17, 2023

Deleted member 5849 said:
My wild stab would be that Robins considers instinctive goalscoring positioning harder to, or impossible to, train, but thinks they can learn the all-round game, so thinks he can add value to players by making them more than just a poacher.

Hasn't really worked out though!

I mean, he's got us promoted twice, won the tin-pot cup and kept us in the Championship at the first attempt (and looking like doing it again).

There'll be things that work out and things that don't to be fair.

MR's continually taken us forward in this 2nd stint. He's earned some lee-way in thinks not working out or going to plan. Our progress has been plain to see overall.

Grendel · Jan 17, 2023

shmmeee said:
Im not sure what copying the infogol blurb is supposed to prove here? I’ve said Palmer is having his worst goal scoring season of his career with us, but equally his involvements have been limited whereas Allen has played 90% of all possible minutes.

well you love to quote infogol blurb when it suits. Interesting minutes on the pitch are now more suited when the argument goes the other way

shmmeee · Jan 17, 2023

PVA said:
It can be, but we're ranked 8th for shots per game and 8th for xG so I'd say that ties in quite nicely.

Yet we are:

21st for goals scored
Joint bottom for goals per shot
Bottom for goals per shot on target
Bottom for g-xG

I don't think creating chances is the problem at all, we are just rubbish at taking them

Doesn’t say anything about the quality of shots though which is the point. Id wager we don’t create good goal scoring and a lot of that is down to as @Calista says lack of threat from the CBs and the others being very defensive so we’re limited to half chances or bad opportunities. No argument our forwards should score more, but under Robins we’ve never been set up to make goal scorers, everything has always come from the lone striker. So they get inflated and everyone else gets suppressed. Point being I don’t think it’s a need a new signing issue as much as need to be able to be less defensive.

Which is why I’m always banging on about the GK and back five when talking signings rather than “20 goal striker”. I’m convinced if we could trust the back three and GK the others would move up the pitch and we’d score a lot more. As it is we have to defend in numbers to make up for low quality individuals.

shmmeee · Jan 17, 2023

Grendel said:
well you love to quote infogol blurb when it suits. Interesting minutes on the pitch are now more suited when the argument goes the other way

I dont think I’ve ever just copied and pasted a blurb but feel free to break out the spreadsheet and prove me wrong. Palmer hasn’t hit goal scoring form this season at all, could be lack on consistent game time, carrying injuries, or as you posit he’s past it at 26. But over their careers he’s got a significantly better record than Allen.

Grendel · Jan 17, 2023

Oh and palmer has scored 11 goals in his last 141 league appearances

CDK · Jan 17, 2023

Think mark robins has been a magician since returning ,hardly any or no budget keeping the players together with a real team spirit.
Just hope we keep him.

Grendel · Jan 17, 2023

shmmeee said:
I dont think I’ve ever just copied and pasted a blurb but feel free to break out the spreadsheet and prove me wrong. Palmer hasn’t hit goal scoring form this season at all, could be lack on consistent game time, carrying injuries, or as you posit he’s past it at 26. But over their careers he’s got a significantly better record than Allen.

he hasn’t hit goalscoring form in his life has he?

PVA · Jan 17, 2023

shmmeee said:
Doesn’t say anything about the quality of shots though which is the point. Id wager we don’t create good goal scoring and a lot of that is down to as @Calista says lack of threat from the CBs and the others being very defensive so we’re limited to half chances or bad opportunities.

It does, that is what xG is for

The xG of a 25 yard shot is tiny, like 0.02 I think, so you'd need 25 of them to make up 0.5 worth of xG.

It's open to interpretation, but for me the implication of our xG is that we create a lot of really good chances but do not take anywhere near enough of them, and I think that's backed up by what I see in game.

PVA · Jan 17, 2023

Grendel said:
Oh and palmer has scored 11 goals in his last 141 league appearances

Palmer has a goal every 475 mins in the Championship.

Allen has a goal every 1,297 mins in the Championship.

If you include assists it's a goal involvement every 263 mins for Palmer and evert 778 mins for Allen.

Grendel · Jan 17, 2023

PVA said:
Palmer has a goal every 475 mins in the Championship.

Allen has a goal every 1,297 mins in the Championship.

If you include assists it's a goal involvement every 263 mins for Palmer and evert 778 mins for Allen.

Fascinating - oddly they don’t play in the same position - oddly Palmer is a flagship signing in the championship and Allen was signed in league 1

What’s really odd is Allen this season is one of the first names on the team sheet - Palmer isn’t

What are the stats for this season?

SBT · Jan 17, 2023

Frostie said:
As last season, we take a lot of shots from poor situations. We have more long shots than any other team in the league.

I wish I could explain this to the guy behind me who hollers “SHOOOOOOT” every time we cross the halfway line.

Frostie · Jan 17, 2023

shmmeee said:
Can you filter by xG at all? Would be interesting to see how many 0.5+ chances we’ve had (or a different threshold for “good chance”)

If you just want to know how many "Big Chances" we have had then yeah that's pretty easy.

We rank joint 13th for this with 30, same as Sunderland, Blackburn & Huddersfield.

Opta Definition of a "Big Chance"
"A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range."
Worth noting though, this does include penalties.

If we focus on Gyökeres for a minute...

He is 5th for Big Chances Missed but don't be misled by this, it's generally the Top Scorers that dominate this list. For example Akpom & Estupiñan also make the Top 10 & in the Prem only Nunez has missed more than Haaland, Salah, Toney etc.

What is interesting (but probably not surprising) is that Gyok creates a lot of these chances himself with 3.60 Shot Creating Actions per 90 (92nd percentile). Also he receives more Progressive Passes to him than any other striker in the league yet very few of these are actually in the penalty area & instead he has an incredibly high number of Dribbles Completed per 90 (96th percentile).

All in all, we rely on Gyökeres far too much!

Now, the one massive spanner in the works to all this & probably the biggest issue in my eyes are all those situations where we even fail to get a shot off from promising positions. Again, as with last season I think our decision making in the final third is poor.

PVA · Jan 17, 2023

Grendel said:
Fascinating - oddly they don’t play in the same position - oddly Palmer is a flagship signing in the championship and Allen was signed in league 1

What’s really odd is Allen this season is one of the first names on the team sheet - Palmer isn’t

What are the stats for this season?

So it's fine to use Allen v Palmer stats when it suits your argument but when it doesn't you have to apply a load of caveats to say the stats mean nothing. Gotcha.

Grendel · Jan 17, 2023

Palmer will divide opinion always but in the end his career will speak for itself and he will be a permanent underachiever

Although certain posters will take it literally I’ll run with it anyway

Graham Swann the England off spinner wants recounts when his career was drifting if he wanted to be the next Shane Warne or the next Phil Tufnell. He chose the former

If Palmer is asked if he wants to be the best Messi or the next Jose Perdomo - he will say I’m sure he will be himself

But it’s clear which way he’s likely to end up

Grendel · Jan 17, 2023

PVA said:
So it's fine to use Allen v Palmer stats when it suits your argument but when it doesn't you have to apply a load of caveats to say the stats mean nothing. Gotcha.

@shmmeee does that all the time which is why I raised it. You frequently talk about biamou hate yet his obsession with Allen is worse. Allen offers the team more than palmer

PVA · Jan 17, 2023

Grendel said:
@shmmeee does that all the time which is why I raised it. You frequently talk about biamou hate yet his obsession with Allen is worse. Allen offers the team more than palmer

You have probably hundreds of posts slating Biamou.

shmmeee · Jan 17, 2023

PVA said:
You have probably hundreds of posts slating Biamou.

He’s just opposite man. If I came out saying Biamou was great he’d be off finding cricketer analogies for why he’s the next Mbappe.

Grendel · Jan 17, 2023

shmmeee said:
He’s just opposite man. If I came out saying Biamou was great he’d be off finding cricketer analogies for why he’s the next Mbappe.

I’ve said from the start Palmer was a high risk signing. I’ve also admitted Allen had been a revelation this season.

Biamou was just a symbol of our decline. People clutching at a piece of sinking driftwood

shmmeee · Jan 17, 2023

Grendel said:
I’ve said from the start Palmer was a high risk signing. I’ve also admitted Allen had been a revelation this season.

Biamou was just a symbol of our decline. People clutching at a piece of sinking driftwood

Without using the word “run” or its variants, explain why Allen has been a “revelation” this season.

Deleted member 5849 · Jan 17, 2023

Skyblueweeman said:
I mean, he's got us promoted twice, won the tin-pot cup and kept us in the Championship at the first attempt (and looking like doing it again).

There'll be things that work out and things that don't to be fair.

MR's continually taken us forward in this 2nd stint. He's earned some lee-way in thinks not working out or going to plan. Our progress has been plain to see overall.

But all your first and last sentences are irrelevant to the point being discussed.

Deleted member 5849 · Jan 17, 2023

Frostie said:
As last season, we take a lot of shots from poor situations. We have more long shots than any other team in the league.

Really? What on earth counts as a 'long shot', because I don't see many that are anything other than a dribble to the keeper, or an attack on the spectators or corner flags!

Grendel · Jan 17, 2023

shmmeee said:
Without using the word “run” or its variants, explain why Allen has been a “revelation” this season.

I started a thread about it

Allen Resurrection

I was not exactly overwhelmed by the decision to extend Allen’s contract He was instrumental in League 1 but looked lost in the championship He’s been something of a revelation this season Essential cog in the team, high work rate, goals assists and excellent coverage all over the pitch...

www.skybluestalk.co.uk

shmmeee · Jan 17, 2023

Grendel said:
I started a thread about it

Allen Resurrection

I was not exactly overwhelmed by the decision to extend Allen’s contract He was instrumental in League 1 but looked lost in the championship He’s been something of a revelation this season Essential cog in the team, high work rate, goals assists and excellent coverage all over the pitch...

www.skybluestalk.co.uk

So taking out the stuff about running you think it’s his goals and assists? He’s got fewer assists than Palmer in twice the time, is Palmer a revelation?

PVA · Jan 17, 2023

Grendel said:
I’ve said from the start Palmer was a high risk signing. I’ve also admitted Allen had been a revelation this season.

Biamou was just a symbol of our decline. People clutching at a piece of sinking driftwood

I don't want to turn this into a Biamou thread, but whatever anyone thinks about him he was part of the team that went from League Two to the Championship. How is that a decline? Its quite literally the opposite.

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