Football League play-offs: Why you have to win your final (1 Viewer)

[Deleted member 4439]

English Football League play-offs: Why you have to win your final

"You get tests in life and it's how you bounce back."

Manager Gary Rowett did his best to remain stoic after his Derby County side were beaten in their play-off semi-final by Fulham - the Rams' third failure at this stage in six seasons.

And history shows it will not be easy for Derby to end up in the top six again next term, because in the seasons following their 2013-14 and 2015-16 play-off defeats, the team finished eighth and ninth.

So is the post-play-off dip a common problem for teams?

In order to find out, we studied 30 years of the English Football League knockout format, which began in the 1986-87 season. We also spoke to manager Danny Wilson, who has experienced the highs and lows of play-offs, and a sports psychologist to understand why some teams find it difficult to pick themselves up.

The findings

Up to and including the 2016-17 season, the hankies have come out for 252 teams who have had their dreams shattered at the play-off stage.

And it seems the post-play-off dip is an issue:

• Of the 252 teams, 142 (56.3%) did worse the following season, with 14 relegated.
• 51 reached the play-offs again (20.2%).
• Another 15 were promoted via the play-offs.
• 44 teams achieved automatic promotion.
• In total, 23.4% bounced back to win promotion the following season.

Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Gracenote Sports, has looked specifically at the record of losing play-off finalists:

• 16 of the 93 beaten finalists (17%) have gone up automatically the following season. Reading (in 2002 and 2012) are the only team to achieve the feat twice.
• Just under a third (29%) have reached the play-offs again the following season. Exeter City, who play Coventry in Monday's League Two final, were the only one of last season's three beaten finalists to reach the play-offs this season.
• 27 (28%) have finished bottom half of the table but avoided relegation, while eight clubs (9%) have suffered the ignominy of going from the brink of promotion to relegation. Leyton Orient (2015) were the last team to go from Wembley one May to desolation the next.

 

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[thekidfromstrettoncamp]

The above posting is my worry very often in these situations the opportunity does not present itself again for sometime. I don't fancy starting next season if we lose out it will seem very flat.

 

[We'll_live_and_die]

Personally I feel we’ve reached the bottom and SISU are now building us back up. All we need is a goal scorer. If McNulty had been scoring all season we would’ve been automatically promoted. We have such strength even when players aren’t bought as our academy keeps churning out championship quality players.

 

[rob9872]

Personally I feel we’ve reached the bottom and SISU are now building us back up. All we need is a goal scorer. If McNulty had been scoring all season we would’ve been automatically promoted. We have such strength even when players aren’t bought as our academy keeps churning out championship quality players.

Premiership

 

[We'll_live_and_die]

Premiership

Scottish prem doesn’t count. Bear in mind I said churning not turning out the odd one

 

[rob9872]

Cian Harries, George Thomas, Ben Stevenson, Callum Wilson all prem. Maddison to add soon. Could add Sturridge too

A couple of years some of the current lads

 

[We'll_live_and_die]

Being at a prem club does not make you a prem player. Wilson is the only current/established prem player in that list.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

It's an interesting study! Just a quick look at recent history in L2 appears to buck these trends. Pompey, Plymouth missed out in 2016 and both got promoted in 2017. Burton missed out in 2014, won the league in 2015. Wycombe missed out in 2015, promoted 2018 (though they dipped after missing out before this season). Luton and Exeter both missed out last year, Luton got promoted and Exeter is back, for what will hopefully be their second consecutive failed attempt at promotion via playoffs.

We're probably going to be favourites to go up next season, even if we lose next week. With a few summer additions, plus returning players (Andreu and Jones) can hopefully offset potential losses of McNulty or Bayliss (but not both), we'll (hopefully) be even stronger than this season. We're a paranoid bunch of supporters and I don't think there'll be a mass exodus of players if we lose. I could be wrong and it ends in disaster, but it's doubtful.

Last year, Exeter took roughly 18,000 to Wembley, we'll end up doubling that and a bit more, so I'd like to think that this will inspire the players into a winning performance. I was getting nervy just looking at past results of L2 playoff finals, half of the 6 teams competing for promotion will go away heartbroken after next week.