Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Yeah, but it's often used to predict the end of season table and it doesn't account for relative difficulty of opposition. More a caveat than a criticism
I hadn't realised anyone was using it as the basis for future performance. Isn't it an attempt to gauge relative performance, removing the discrepancy in number of games played?
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Take your point. Such a table might be more meaningful once all teams have played each other.Yeah, but it's often used to predict the end of season table and it doesn't account for relative difficulty of opposition. More a caveat than a criticism
Take your point. Such a table might be more meaningful once all teams have played each other.
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You've gone too deep for me, I'm afraid!True, but then we're just getting closer to the point that all games have been played. I think there probably is more merit to an Elo/Glicko rating but with a huge number of variables predicting the future in football still seems in the distant well...future.
Yeah, just copied the table and then did the calculation and then sorted it by points per game.Love this - did you create that from scratch?
We are essentially 4th then on level playing field
Goal difference of plus 3 tells you that our position in the table is rather flattering At the moment
I don’t think we are flattered by our position. The only game I thought we were lucky to win was Fleetwood. The only game we deserved to lose was Rotherham, and we did. If we had more of the rub of the green with regard to referees we would be in an even better position. With regard to the goal difference it shows that we win games often by a single goal. Anyone who has watched our games knows that a lot of them should have won by a 2 or 3 goal margin. I think it does show we need someone to consistently put the ball away.Goal difference of plus 3 tells you that our position in the table is rather flattering At the moment
I hadn't realised anyone was using it as the basis for future performance...
Your first paragraph leaves me baffled, especially the Grendel reference.If all you ever seen are green apples you can't say all apples are green 'cause when someone hands you a red apple you are going to feel like Grendel. However, this hasn't stopped science from making a killing from this sort of working out.
Yes, it's future predictions as well.
It's not just predicting the present position of each team in the division but their finishing positions as well.
The more games played: the more accurate it gets.
Four out of the current top 6 have played the same number of games - Wouldn't worry too much about any of that, Cov will finish in the top two from what I have seen in this league - added to that statementIt’s all over the place isn’t it. I know it’s because of bury going bust and so that game throws everyone out but got to admit it makes the season a bit weird. Hard to get excited about the league table when it doesn’t really mean anything.
Burton have 3 games in hand on us
Your first paragraph leaves me baffled, especially the Grendel reference.
Anyway, I take it you're referring to your more sophisticated models when you say that they are predictive, rather than stup07's analysis of results to date? You'd hope that any model would become more accurate as data accumulates, otherwise it's fit for fuck all. Keep up the good work.
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