How to win the lottery (1 Viewer)

derbyskyblue · Jul 30, 2012

Right, ive had a few drinks, i wont deny! However and stay with me on this now, ive got it cracked !!!
There are 49 numbers, take off the six numbers from the previous weekend, they wont come out again......they just wont ok?
Count up how many odds or even numbers there are.
whichever has the most go with the opposite...better still if its all odd numbers go with evens...or vice versa.
Simples........i think.:thinking about::thinking about::thinking about:

Sutty · Jul 30, 2012

How to win the lottery? Don't play it.

Otis · Jul 30, 2012

Not playing it wins it?

Bit radical that me thinks.

Covstu · Jul 30, 2012

Sutty said:
How to win the lottery? Don't play it.

Hmmm not thought that one through really.......

Houchens Head · Jul 30, 2012

Hang on..... I'll check with Gaz. He seems to be in the know about winning the lottery!!

Otis · Jul 30, 2012

Grow up!!!

johnniericoh · Jul 30, 2012

Otis said:
Not playing it wins it?

Bit radical that me thinks.

I started the lottery in 1994 and over the years have won over 250+ times equivalent to approx £2,500 in returns BUT on the debit side @ £10 per week on average over the last 18 years my gross outlay must have been £9,300 +

Doesn't take a genius to work out that for all my investment and supposed winnings really means I have lost over £6,500 nett chasing that elusive holy grail millionaire club.

Needless to say I saw the light about 12 months ago and stopped completely and even though i remember my fixed numbers and check each weeks results I no longer have anxieties as to what might have been if I would have continued.

Look at the official odds to win the main prizes of the lottery below:

6 numbers: 1 in 13,983,816
5 + Bonus: 1 in 2,330,636
5 numbers: 1 in 55,491
4 numbers: 1 in 1,032
3 numbers: 1 in 57

Those stats + my losses more than justify my decision to stop - don't you think

PUsB

I'mARealWizard · Jul 30, 2012

derbyskyblue said:
Right, ive had a few drinks, i wont deny! However and stay with me on this now, ive got it cracked !!!
There are 49 numbers, take off the six numbers from the previous weekend, they wont come out again......they just wont ok?
Count up how many odds or even numbers there are.
whichever has the most go with the opposite...better still if its all odd numbers go with evens...or vice versa.
Simples........i think.:thinking about::thinking about::thinking about:

You're describing, in mathematical terms, a rectangular distribution.

In layman's terms, after a long period of time, you would expect all of the balls to have been picked the same amount of time.

So if numbers appear one week, by a distributional term, they are less likely to be picked the following week.

You actually increase your chances of winning by using this method and keeping a track of previously drawn balls.

Statistically, you don't improve your chances by anything 'significant'. But they are increased none the less.

rob9872 · Jul 30, 2012

It's recreational and if you can afford it, then is completely harmless. If you analysed everything for value you would never spend any money and where is the fun in that?!

The odds are awful, but we all have dreams that most of us will never achieve however much we aspire to them and work hard towards them, so like everything else, providing you control it and that it doesn't contol you, then for a couple of quid a week and to have that chance you might change your life is perfectly fine.

rob9872 · Jul 30, 2012

I'mARealWizard said:
You're describing, in mathematical terms, a rectangular distribution.

In layman's terms, after a long period of time, you would expect all of the balls to have been picked the same amount of time.

So if numbers appear one week, by a distributional term, they are less likely to be picked the following week.

You actually increase your chances of winning by using this method and keeping a track of previously drawn balls.

Statistically, you don't improve your chances by anything 'significant'. But they are increased none the less.

Run the sequence enough times and you will find that it's possible the same set could come out more than twice consecutively. Each draw is completely independent to the previous one and each set of variables has an EXACT EQUAL CHANCE.

The series of 49 balls is only an exageration of a coin spin (a perfectly flat and even coin spin as we know many coins hold a slight bias over the long term) where even the longest patterns and sequences will be replicated.

Otis · Jul 30, 2012

It's recreational and if you can afford it, then is completely harmless. If you analysed everything for value you would never spend any money and where is the fun in that?!

The odds are awful, but we all have dreams that most of us will never achieve however much we aspire to them and work hard towards them, so like everything else, providing you control it and that it doesn't contol you, then for a couple of quid a week and to have that chance you might change your life is perfectly fine.

Agree.

Could never put big wads on though. 5 quid is my limit.

Well, except that i won £20 on the Thunderball on Saturday so have bunged all that on the Euro's for tomorrow.

Close call though, cos it was a toss up between that and flushing it down the toilet.

Houchens Head · Jul 30, 2012

I had 5 and the bonus ball number once!

It was just that...... the number 5 and the bonus ball!

skybluejohn · Jul 30, 2012

I was one off winning it once.

A tenner would have come in handy that week.

I'mARealWizard · Jul 30, 2012

rob9872 said:
Run the sequence enough times and you will find that it's possible the same set could come out more than twice consecutively. Each draw is completely independent to the previous one and each set of variables has an EXACT EQUAL CHANCE.

The series of 49 balls is only an exageration of a coin spin (a perfectly flat and even coin spin as we know many coins hold a slight bias over the long term) where even the longest patterns and sequences will be replicated.

What you are saying is not fact.

For independent events (which is what each draw is) you multiply probabilities.

For example...

What is the probability of getting a head when flipping a coin? Ans: 0.5

What is the probability of getting a head when you next flip it? Ans: 0.5

However, what is the probability that you get two heads in a row? Ans: 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25

Because there are four outcomes:

HH
HT
TH
TT

Each has a probability of 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25

So when you add up the four outcomes (0.25 x 4) you get 1.

If you flip a coin 9 times and get a head each time, what is the probability that of getting a head when you flip the coin for the 10th time?

For the event on its own it is still 0.5

But if the question you are asking is 'what is the probability of getting 10 heads in a row' - then the answer is 0.5^10.

The individual probability for the single event doesn't change. But when you look at a sequence of events then there are many different permutations and combinations.

For mutually exclusive (independent events) this is true.

So you would not expect the same lottery numbers to come out 10 weeks in a row (an exaggerated example).

The probability of those exact numbers occurring for each event is the same.

But the probability of those same numbers being chosen every week for 10 weeks is not the same as them being picked one week and then not happening for the other 9 weeks.

You then look to distributions to work out how many different ways the numbers can be picked.

In the case of a coin being flipped you can use a binomial distribution - which is nice and simple to follow as there are only ever two outcomes.

In the case of the lottery, you would look to a rectangular distribution, as over time you would expect the balls to be picked (within reason) a similar amount of time.

Marty · Jul 30, 2012

It's similar to that thing where you have the option of 3 things hidden and in one is a big prize with 2 duffs in the others. Say you pick item 1 but it isn't opened, 1 of the other hidden prizes is removed. Naturally you think only 2 things left so it's a 50/50 chance, but in fact it's not, it's 33.3% of getting the big prize if you stick with your original option, but 66.6% if you change to the other item. Can't remember what it's called, anybody enlighten me?

Houchens Head · Jul 30, 2012

Blimey Real! I was lost after the fourth line! (But I'm sure you're right :thinking about

I'mARealWizard · Jul 30, 2012

Marty said:
It's similar to that thing where you have the option of 3 things hidden and in one is a big prize with 2 duffs in the others. Say you pick item 1 but it isn't opened, 1 of the other hidden prizes is removed. Naturally you think only 2 things left so it's a 50/50 chance, but in fact it's not, it's 33.3% of getting the big prize if you stick with your original option, but 66.6% if you change to the other item. Can't remember what it's called, anybody enlighten me?

On a similar theme Schrodinger's cat is fun

[video=youtube;IOYyCHGWJq4]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOYyCHGWJq4[/video]

rob9872 · Jul 30, 2012

Marty said:
It's similar to that thing where you have the option of 3 things hidden and in one is a big prize with 2 duffs in the others. Say you pick item 1 but it isn't opened, 1 of the other hidden prizes is removed. Naturally you think only 2 things left so it's a 50/50 chance, but in fact it's not, it's 33.3% of getting the big prize if you stick with your original option, but 66.6% if you change to the other item. Can't remember what it's called, anybody enlighten me?

That's the age old Monty Hall and formed part of a (I think US?) quiz show.

rob9872 · Jul 30, 2012

I'mARealWizard said:
What you are saying is not fact.

For independent events (which is what each draw is) you multiply probabilities.

For example...

What is the probability of getting a head when flipping a coin? Ans: 0.5

What is the probability of getting a head when you next flip it? Ans: 0.5

However, what is the probability that you get two heads in a row? Ans: 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25

Because there are four outcomes:

HH
HT
TH
TT

Each has a probability of 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25

So when you add up the four outcomes (0.25 x 4) you get 1.

If you flip a coin 9 times and get a head each time, what is the probability that of getting a head when you flip the coin for the 10th time?

For the event on its own it is still 0.5

But if the question you are asking is 'what is the probability of getting 10 heads in a row' - then the answer is 0.5^10.

The individual probability for the single event doesn't change. But when you look at a sequence of events then there are many different permutations and combinations.

For mutually exclusive (independent events) this is true.

So you would not expect the same lottery numbers to come out 10 weeks in a row (an exaggerated example).

The probability of those exact numbers occurring for each event is the same.

But the probability of those same numbers being chosen every week for 10 weeks is not the same as them being picked one week and then not happening for the other 9 weeks.

You then look to distributions to work out how many different ways the numbers can be picked.

In the case of a coin being flipped you can use a binomial distribution - which is nice and simple to follow as there are only ever two outcomes.

In the case of the lottery, you would look to a rectangular distribution, as over time you would expect the balls to be picked (within reason) a similar amount of time.

So are you saying that if the lottery draw was made (assuming approx 14m cobinations) that if we ran it 14m x 14m times, that you wouldn't get two consecutive draws of the same number anywhere within that sequence? Surely this goes against every statistical probability.

I'mARealWizard · Jul 30, 2012

rob9872 said:
So are you saying that if the lottery draw was made (assuming approx 14m cobinations) that if we ran it 14m x 14m times, that you wouldn't get two consecutive draws of the same number anywhere within that sequence? Surely this goes against every statistical probability.

No, what I'm saying is, is that you would expect that combination of numbers to occur for 1/13,983,816 x n (where n is the number of times the trial occured).

If you ran the experiment twice, there would be four outcomes. Let A be the event (6 chosen numbers). A' is the event (not the chosen 6 numbers)

The four outcomes are:

AA
AA'
A'A
A'A'

So AA becomes the event that the same two numbers occur in successive draws.

The associated probabilities are:

AA (1/13,983,816 x 1/13,983,816)
AA' (1/13,983,816 x 13,983,815/13,983,816)
A'A (13,983,815/13,983,816 x 1/13,983,816)
A'A' (13,983,815/13,983,816 x 13,983,815/13,983,816)

(You can check on a calculator that these four probabilities add up to make 1)

So the event AA has a probability less than A (as A is multiplied by a number less than 1).

If you had 3 draws in a row, you would have 8 outcomes:

AAA
AAA'
AA'A
AA'A'
A'AA
A'AA'
A'A'A
A'A'A'

Here you can see the chance of the same three numbers occurring in a row would be:
A x A x A = (1/13,983,815/13,983,816)^3

and so on.

dutchman · Jul 30, 2012

^^^ What you've just described is known as "The Gambler's Fallacy"

Try using it to play the even chance odds at a roulette table and see how far you get?

Past events can have no bearing on future outcomes.

Il Pirata · Jul 30, 2012

If I had a flawless plan to win the lottery I'd definitely share it with dozens of strangers on a football forum.

Houchens Head · Jul 30, 2012

Il Pirata said:
If I had a flawless plan to win the lottery I'd definitely share it with dozens of strangers on a football forum.

I'm not that strange!
I might walk with a strange limpy gait sometimes though! x

Marty · Jul 30, 2012

dutchman said:
^^^ What you've just described is known as "The Gambler's Fallacy"

Try using it to play the even chance odds at a roulette table and see how far you get?

Past events can have no bearing on future outcomes.

Is that the thing where if you lose you just keep doubling up, so a £5 bet becomes £10 then £20 then £40, then £80? I know it's the way a lot play and potentially as long as you have enough money, you should always be coming out with a small profit. There will be the odd occasion where it comes out 10 times in a row but this is very rare.

dutchman · Jul 30, 2012

Marty said:
Is that the thing where if you lose you just keep doubling up, so a £5 bet becomes £10 then £20 then £40, then £80? I know it's the way a lot play and potentially as long as you have enough money, you should always be coming out with a small profit. There will be the odd occasion where it comes out 10 times in a row but this is very rare.

That's called the "Martingale" betting system and is equally futile. That casinos haven't banned it shows how confident they are of eventually winning.

The "gambler's fallacy" would be that say red having come nine times already on a roulette wheel would be less likely to come up a tenth time. It has in fact exactly the same chance of coming up red again.

BackRoomRummermill · Jul 31, 2012

The longer you stay at a table the more chance you will lose

How to win the lottery (1 Viewer)

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