Just think (1 Viewer)

edgy · Jan 2, 2025

If Rudoni's shot vs Millwall goes over the line and BTA scores his sitter we sit 12th on 33 points, 4 wins from 5 and 7 points off the play offs. Yes, it would mask how we are actually playing but that replicates up and down the championship. You stick your chances away and everything feels different and confidence would grow and performances may improve.

Until Wright and EMC are back in the fold, we going to witness more of the same unless someone in the squad decides they want to contribute at that end of the field.

Skyblueweeman · Jan 2, 2025

And if Bassette had just passed the ball into the net around 10 mins in vs Pompey.

I agree with your sentiment but it's those fine margins that we don't capitalise on or get right.

Wyken Sky Blue · Jan 2, 2025

If Hamer stayed on the pitch against Luton in the Play Off Final we would've won that game

Domo · Jan 2, 2025

if we won, the bounce in confidence would have been great from the team, and prob look to play better next game. most important thing is we didnt lose the game.

Domo · Jan 2, 2025

Wyken Sky Blue said:
If Hamer stayed on the pitch against Luton in the Play Off Final we would've won that game

if he stayed on, and took the pen instead of dabo...

Sky Blue Goblin · Jan 2, 2025

I will say as a positive, we would have lost Cardiff a couple of weeks ago. Always a saying a football is when you can’t win, don’t lose and the point keeps us ticking on.

Again annoying results but three unbeaten and if we could get something at Norwich, we’re in a good spot

Evo1883 · Jan 2, 2025

edgy said:
If Rudoni's shot vs Millwall goes over the line and BTA scores his sitter we sit 12th on 33 points, 4 wins from 5 and 7 points off the play offs. Yes, it would mask how we are actually playing but that replicates up and down the championship. You stick your chances away and everything feels different and confidence would grow and performances may improve.

Until Wright and EMC are back in the fold, we going to witness more of the same unless someone in the squad decides they want to contribute at that end of the field.

You could make a case like this for almost all the games we've played this season

Hence why we are near the top of the XG tables

edgy · Jan 2, 2025

Evo1883 said:
You could make a case like this for almost all the games we've played this season

Hence why we are near the top of the XG tables

Whilst we know we haven't got the defence or midfield to turn in visually good performances week on week, we haven't got the right forward to win us games yet either. It's a hugely important role and I think we should be looking to improve that area, if the budget allows.

HuckerbyDublinWhelan · Jan 2, 2025

Wyken Sky Blue said:
If Hamer stayed on the pitch against Luton in the Play Off Final we would've won that game

That’s a hill I’ll die on. He was becoming more influential as the game went on. Wouldn’t have needed pens

PUSB-We_are_going_up · Jan 2, 2025

We’re playing shit and still ticking points over, need I say more. When we start playing and turning up we’ll smash some teams

SkyB · Jan 2, 2025

No one under or over performs xG for extend periods, or so the thought is, and we're missing guilt edge chances every game. We saw what happened against Plymouth when the luck was in our favour.

We aren't as bad of a side as everyone seems to be making out on here. Sure our recruitment's been poor but a few quality additions, who can play Franks style, and we'll be fine.

PUSB-We_are_going_up · Jan 2, 2025

SkyB said:
No one under or over performs xG for extend periods, or so the thought is, and we're missing guilt edge chances every game. We saw what happened against Plymouth when the luck was in our favour.

We aren't as bad of a side as everyone seems to be making out on here. Sure our recruitment's been poor but a few quality additions, who can play Franks style, and we'll be fine.

I dont know about that one take a look at Patty Bamford

Cally Fedora · Jan 2, 2025

I think this does highlight one of our biggest issues. When we get into goalscoring positions our decision making firstly and execution secondly is really bad. I get that confidence is low and we’re snatching at things etc. But I’ve lost count of the games where we’ve dominated etc only for the other team to score 2 from 3 on target and so forth. We are imprecise in the final third.

Terry Gibson's perm · Jan 2, 2025

Cally Fedora said:
I think this does highlight one of our biggest issues. When we get into goalscoring positions our decision making firstly and execution secondly is really bad. I get that confidence is low and we’re snatching at things etc. But I’ve lost count of the games where we’ve dominated etc only for the other team to score 2 from 3 on target and so forth. We are imprecise in the final third.

Other teams goalies don’t seem to dive over the ball or just be generally useless like two of ours.

Terry Gibson's perm · Jan 2, 2025

Our strikers should be full of confidence after a week shooting at Wilson and Collins plus the younger ones who must be equally dreadful if they can’t get on the bench in front of those two.

Robinshio · Jan 2, 2025

we are so negative and carrying too many players who want to keep it that way
Lati and Sheaf havent played a forward pass between them all season

Terry Gibson's perm · Jan 2, 2025

Robinshio said:
we are so negative and carrying too many players who want to keep it that way
Lati and Sheaf havent played a forward pass between them all season

No sheaf made two or three yesterday they all went out of play but they did go forward. Lati isn’t a footballer

shmmeee · Jan 2, 2025

Terry Gibson's perm said:
Other teams goalies don’t seem to dive over the ball or just be generally useless like two of ours.

Other than Plymouths.

covcity4life · Jan 2, 2025

Well said OP

skybluecam · Jan 2, 2025

SkyB said:
No one under or over performs xG for extend periods, or so the thought is, and we're missing guilt edge chances every game. We saw what happened against Plymouth when the luck was in our favour.

We aren't as bad of a side as everyone seems to be making out on here. Sure our recruitment's been poor but a few quality additions, who can play Franks style, and we'll be fine.

They do actually, and you would expect it.

But not by the amount we are.

I did read some analysis that a mix of 1/3 actual goals and 2/3 xg was a better predictor of outcomes than either one alone.

Terry Gibson's perm · Jan 2, 2025

shmmeee said:
Other than Plymouths.

He even looked like Collins

SkyB · Jan 2, 2025

PUSB-We_are_going_up said:
I dont know about that one take a look at Patty Bamford

Did you see that graphic that went round the other week as well? Was trying to look for it to attach to my post but couldn't find it.

Bamford's xG underperformance is truly crazy.

Sky Blue Goblin · Jan 2, 2025

PUSB-We_are_going_up said:
We’re playing shit and still ticking points over, need I say more. When we start playing and turning up we’ll smash some teams

Been saying that though personally since September. Starting to think these lot can’t turn up or this is it

edgy · Jan 2, 2025

Just doing a bit of xG digging. Under Lampard, we have the 2nd highest net xG in the Championship, 2nd only to Leeds. (Caveat, not including yesterdays game, but get a feeling the stats would further "improve")

Season 24/25 before Lampard:

xG per game: 1.38
xGA per game: 1.06
Net xG per game: +0.32

Lampard:

xG per game: 1.85
xGA per game: 0.84
Net xG per game: +1.01

I'm not entirely convinced by the stat itself, but many are. That is a telling insight, we are under-performing massively at both ends of the pitch but have at the same time improved xG stats since Lampard arrived.

Skyblueweeman · Jan 2, 2025

So is that saying we 'should' have 40 points by now?

edgy · Jan 2, 2025

Skyblueweeman said:
So is that saying we 'should' have 40 points by now?

Yes I think so.

Another interesting xG comparison by games/opponents. Only Burnley (A) & Portsmouth (A) have out xG'd us in the last 8 matches:

We are the dark blue bars, opponents the light blue:

Skyblueweeman · Jan 2, 2025

Cheers @edgy

So...just because I'm pretty anti-xG, if our expected points should be 40 as opposed to our current 29, this would likely put us further up the table - maybe around play offs?

Does that mean then that the argument about MR/DA/ANOther 'wasting' circa £45m worth on the current squad, is less credible? That it is indeed a good squad, just under-performing (for whatever reason)?

edgy · Jan 2, 2025

Skyblueweeman said:
Cheers @edgy

So...just because I'm pretty anti-xG, if our expected points should be 40 as opposed to our current 29, this would likely put us further up the table - maybe around play offs?

Does that mean then that the argument about MR/DA/ANOther 'wasting' circa £45m worth on the current squad, is less credible? That it is indeed a good squad, just under-performing (for whatever reason)?

Yeah I think that's the general idea of it. I'm by no means any xG guru, not even close. But many on here hold it in high regard so I took a look into our data.

The bottom line is, we should be scoring more, conceeding less and in turn have many more points on the board. However, that said, both ends of the pitch are improving in our favour in terms of xG & xGA over the last 8 games. But it remains to be seen if xG stats can be translated into real life.

fernandopartridge · Jan 2, 2025

Robinshio said:
we are so negative and carrying too many players who want to keep it that way
Lati and Sheaf havent played a forward pass between them all season

Stop talking shite, we have been consistently top 6 for xG which means we make chances which means we are not negative.

The watchmaker · Jan 2, 2025

Skyblueweeman said:
Cheers @edgy

So...just because I'm pretty anti-xG, if our expected points should be 40 as opposed to our current 29, this would likely put us further up the table - maybe around play offs?

Does that mean then that the argument about MR/DA/ANOther 'wasting' circa £45m worth on the current squad, is less credible? That it is indeed a good squad, just under-performing (for whatever reason)?

If you believe xG counts for anything we 'should have been 3rd behind Leeds and Boro' when we sacked Robins and by the looks of that our stats are still encouraging under Lampard (irrespective of the standard of opposition).

We have been consistently underperforming xG this season at one stage at least were the biggest underperformers by a distance. Some of that was down to iffy keeping and Rudoni, EMC, BTA snatching at their early chances.

Some of the criticism of the players is way over the top - we know this - and if you look at some of comebacks (eg. Luton) even the criticism of leadership and mental strength could be considered a little harsh. We should be expecting to see Coventry climb the table and I feel a little more positive that something might click and we could go on a bit of a run looking at that. But at the end of the day they are just stats..

PUSB-We_are_going_up · Jan 2, 2025

SkyB said:
Did you see that graphic that went round the other week as well? Was trying to look for it to attach to my post but couldn't find it.

Bamford's xG underperformance is truly crazy.

-24 roughly is unreally shit, although you factor in 1 goal he scored must have had a 0.02xg (that Rodrigues-esque volley) then you see why

Skybluedownunder · Jan 2, 2025

edgy said:
If Rudoni's shot vs Millwall goes over the line and BTA scores his sitter we sit 12th on 33 points, 4 wins from 5 and 7 points off the play offs. Yes, it would mask how we are actually playing but that replicates up and down the championship. You stick your chances away and everything feels different and confidence would grow and performances may improve.

Until Wright and EMC are back in the fold, we going to witness more of the same unless someone in the squad decides they want to contribute at that end of the field.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Hobo · Jan 2, 2025

edgy said:
If Rudoni's shot vs Millwall goes over the line and BTA scores his sitter we sit 12th on 33 points, 4 wins from 5 and 7 points off the play offs. Yes, it would mask how we are actually playing but that replicates up and down the championship. You stick your chances away and everything feels different and confidence would grow and performances may improve.

Until Wright and EMC are back in the fold, we going to witness more of the same unless someone in the squad decides they want to contribute at that end of the field.

Arsene Wenger, "Success is measured in inches"

But if you keep failing by inches, you keep failing. Fine margins maybe? But Collins, DaSilva, Van Ewijk, Sakamoto, Torp and Sheaf have been failing consistently and repeatedly; even within the same match.

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