Mark Robins Manager Statistics (2 Viewers)

Irish Sky Blue · Aug 21, 2019

Tomh111 said:
I'm part way through reading 'Why England lose and other phenomena explained

They make a really compelling argument for managers having statistically zero impact on how a team finishes in the league - Regression analysis actually almost entirely puts something like 70% of the explanation for finishing position is wage budget.

This isn't just plucked out of thin air, they use like 30 year data sets.

I'm not sure I'm entirely on board with ot, but its certainly an interesting book.

The question would be, if Russel Slade had the same budget as Robins would we have done as well over the past 2 and a half years? Managers aren’t miracle workers and they obviously need the tools to work with. However wouldn’t the mark of a good manager be how they used the tools at their disposal?
The answer to Slade v Robins is an easy answer to see as it only took Robins his first three losing games in his second spell here to work things out and turn us around. With the same set of players Robins was getting at least mid table form from a team that was all but relegated.
I think he is a really good manager for us. However it will only take a losing run of one game for some people to be sending for a taxi and to be tick ticking again.

Tomh111 · Aug 21, 2019

Irish Sky Blue said:
The question would be, if Russel Slade had the same budget as Robins would we have done as well over the past 2 and a half years? Managers aren’t miracle workers and they obviously need the tools to work with. However wouldn’t the mark of a good manager be how they used the tools at their disposal?
The answer to Slade v Robins is an easy answer to see as it only took Robins his first three losing games in his second spell here to work things out and turn us around. With the same set of players Robins was getting at least mid table form from a team that was all but relegated.
I think he is a really good manager for us. However it will only take a losing run of one game for some people to be sending for a taxi and to be tick ticking again.

They actually do a whole section explaining this as well - it's honestly well worth a read.

Particular some of the chat around game theory and penalty shootouts and around Englands performance.

shmmeee · Aug 21, 2019

Tomh111 said:
I'm part way through reading 'Why England lose and other phenomena explained

They make a really compelling argument for managers having statistically zero impact on how a team finishes in the league - Regression analysis actually almost entirely puts something like 70% of the explanation for finishing position is wage budget.

This isn't just plucked out of thin air, they use like 30 year data sets.

I'm not sure I'm entirely on board with ot, but its certainly an interesting book.

My question would be: does wage budget impact the available manager as well? Which variables are they controlling? Are they comparing Man Utd and City or Man Utd under one manager with Man Utd under another?

I question the value of statistical analysis in any human centred endeavour TBF, especially one as complex as sport.

Grendel · Aug 21, 2019

shmmeee said:
My question would be: does wage budget impact the available manager as well? Which variables are they controlling? Are they comparing Man Utd and City or Man Utd under one manager with Man Utd under another?

I question the value of statistical analysis in any human centred endeavour TBF, especially one as complex as sport.

Which is strange as you frequently quote the statistical analysis of Bakayoko and his goals per minute ratio

Irish Sky Blue · Aug 21, 2019

Grendel said:
Which is strange as you frequently quote the statistical analysis of Bakayoko and his goals per minute ratio

Good assist by Bakayo last night.

Badger · Aug 22, 2019

Generally the players on higher wages are better players so the teams paying higher wager should be finishing in a better position. Leicester being an exception.

Hobo · Aug 22, 2019

Gibbo said:
According to some research I read (but cannot remember where) typically managers are effective for up to 3 years and thereafter players lose incentive. Some notable exceptions to that. But even so if you look at someone like Mourinho or Hodgson it makes sense. So we have had 15 months so we are good for a while.

That is why Ferguson changed his backroom staff...fresh voices.

Irish Sky Blue · Aug 22, 2019

Hobo said:
That is why Ferguson changed his backroom staff...fresh voices.

With the turn over of players these days it is virtually a new team every 18 months anyway.

Covstar · Aug 22, 2019

We are very lucky to have him and we will only miss him once he's left the club. The number of managers we have had and the quality of managers in the 19 years since relegation from prem says it all in that list. So lets be grateful we have a fantastic manager who has been here for more than 2 years now, already accomplished success and is building something long term for the club.

ajsccfc · Aug 22, 2019

Mad that only five of those managerial spells have seen more wins than defeats and two of those five are Mark Robins. What a man

nunchuckas · Aug 22, 2019

My biggest fear is losing Robins, he's the only manager I've had 100% faith in his decisions that I can remember. I think if we're sitting pretty around Christmas/Jan, we may struggle to keep him when some jobs come up.

Also, I've always felt Dowie was hard done by, and his stats look decent too. I can't remember exactly what happened there, I think he even won his last game before being given the chop.

ajsccfc · Aug 22, 2019

Probably remembering this all wrong, but I'm sure when SISU and Ranson came in they had Coleman lined up so Dowie was on borrowed time

fernandopartridge · Aug 22, 2019

nunchuckas said:
My biggest fear is losing Robins, he's the only manager I've had 100% faith in his decisions that I can remember. I think if we're sitting pretty around Christmas/Jan, we may struggle to keep him when some jobs come up.

Also, I've always felt Dowie was hard done by, and his stats look decent too. I can't remember exactly what happened there, I think he even won his last game before being given the chop.

Dowie was weird, he had some really memorable wins mixed with some really dire runs of results. That said, would rather have kept him than Coleman

fatso · Aug 22, 2019

ajsccfc said:
Mad that only five of those managerial spells have seen more wins than defeats and two of those five are Mark Robins. What a man

In defence of some of the other managers, MR did manage us in the 4th division.

ajsccfc · Aug 22, 2019

That's true, but even if you discount the wins and losses from that L2 season he's still in positive numbers for both spells thanks to our start this season.

Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Aug 22, 2019

nunchuckas said:
My biggest fear is losing Robins, he's the only manager I've had 100% faith in his decisions that I can remember. I think if we're sitting pretty around Christmas/Jan, we may struggle to keep him when some jobs come up.

Also, I've always felt Dowie was hard done by, and his stats look decent too. I can't remember exactly what happened there, I think he even won his last game before being given the chop.

I share that fear BUT he may be more reluctant this time after he it went horrible wrong last time. He seems to 'fit' here and things seem to work out for him. Even when we got major injuries to 'key' players with JJ and Andreu it led to us finding that Max/McNulty formula which we might not have otherwise. But money talks and I guess ambition does to. If we're looking competitive I think he'd be more likely to stay.

Dowie was probably a bit hard done by, but he was the manager when the takeover occurred. He was definitely out of his honeymoon period and starting to struggle IMO and even without the takeover would probably have been ousted before long. I think the fact it was the Colman negative borefest that followed that elevates him above where he probably belongs, as with Black being followed by Reid.

Grendel · Aug 22, 2019

ajsccfc said:
Probably remembering this all wrong, but I'm sure when SISU and Ranson came in they had Coleman lined up so Dowie was on borrowed time

Ranson was buddies with Coleman, Keane and Thorn - a ghastly triumvirate - who all were chosen to come to the club as part of his clueless strategy

Tomh111 · Aug 22, 2019

shmmeee said:
My question would be: does wage budget impact the available manager as well? Which variables are they controlling? Are they comparing Man Utd and City or Man Utd under one manager with Man Utd under another?

I question the value of statistical analysis in any human centred endeavour TBF, especially one as complex as sport.

As a biology graduate I find it insane to suggest that you can't use statistics to predict human centric behaviours or the results of them.

I said at the start that I'm not totally on board with the theory, I think it's more correlatative than causative.

But I have to say I do think the role of a manager is wildly overstated. I think recruitment/scouting is by far and away the most important area of the backroom staff.

Get the manager the right players and all he has to do is babysit.

shmmeee · Aug 22, 2019

Tomh111 said:
As a biology graduate I find it insane to suggest that you can't use statistics to predict human centric behaviours or the results of them.

I said at the start that I'm not totally on board with the theory, I think it's more correlatative than causative.

But I have to say I do think the role of a manager is wildly overstated. I think recruitment/scouting is by far and away the most important area of the backroom staff.

Get the manager the right players and all he has to do is babysit.

Not sure biology counts in my definition. I’m talking things like sociology and psychology and sports science which generally only work on large populations and tell you not a lot about individuals. You’re testing a black box with too many variables to reliably model IMO.

A good analogy is machine learning models. You’re modelling something, but without a lot of care it’s very easy to not be modelling the thing you think you are. See the famous army training a neural net to spot tanks but not realising they’d taken all the tank training images at midday and non tanks in the evening so they’d made a daylight classifier instead.

Tomh111 · Aug 22, 2019

shmmeee said:
Not sure biology counts in my definition. I’m talking things like sociology and psychology and sports science which generally only work on large populations and tell you not a lot about individuals. You’re testing a black box with too many variables to reliably model IMO.

Because if you can predict whole life strategies and behaviours across populations, then you can predict the outcome of a sporting event.

You just have to have a robust enough data set

shmmeee · Aug 22, 2019

Tomh111 said:
Because if you can predict whole life strategies and behaviours across populations, then you can predict the outcome of a sporting event.

You just have to have a robust enough data set

The point is no set of features will reliable model a human. At a large enough scale you can get some fairly reliable predictions but they don’t tell you anything about individual cases. All models are wrong, some models are useful.

Tomh111 · Aug 22, 2019

shmmeee said:
The point is no set of features will reliable model a human. At a large enough scale you can get some fairly reliable predictions but they don’t tell you anything about individual cases. All models are wrong, some models are useful.

This is going to descend into a debate far too complex for a coventry city forum!

There will always be exceptions to a rule - but I'd argue that unless we are clearly talking about exceptions e.g. Pep, Klopp, SAF and an early career Wenger - the rest fall within an entirely average and predictable norm.

I keep saying that I'm not totally behind the theory, I only ever really wanted to raise what is a quite interesting theory and shout up a really interesting book!

Evo1883 · Aug 22, 2019

Offer him 5 years, if he gets us promoted again he then begins to start falling into legendary status.... 2 more promotions and its statue material lol

nunchuckas · Aug 22, 2019

Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
I share that fear BUT he may be more reluctant this time after he it went horrible wrong last time. He seems to 'fit' here and things seem to work out for him. Even when we got major injuries to 'key' players with JJ and Andreu it led to us finding that Max/McNulty formula which we might not have otherwise. But money talks and I guess ambition does to. If we're looking competitive I think he'd be more likely to stay.

Dowie was probably a bit hard done by, but he was the manager when the takeover occurred. He was definitely out of his honeymoon period and starting to struggle IMO and even without the takeover would probably have been ousted before long. I think the fact it was the Colman negative borefest that followed that elevates him above where he probably belongs, as with Black being followed by Reid.

I'd like to think he'd stay too if it's a lower championship team that comes knocking, but the money at the top of the Championship is that much higher now compared with last time. I think he'd have little choice not to go if it's a WBA, Fulham, Forest etc. who came in for him... maybe even Blues now he knows his way round :/

Mucca Mad Boys · Aug 22, 2019

Gibbo said:
According to some research I read (but cannot remember where) typically managers are effective for up to 3 years and thereafter players lose incentive. Some notable exceptions to that. But even so if you look at someone like Mourinho or Hodgson it makes sense. So we have had 15 months so we are good for a while.

With our player turnover, I don’t think that’s much of a problem.

You love a negative spin on anything.

Skybluemichael · Aug 23, 2019

What money would mark be on? Are highest paid player is said to be on £4K a week would he be on more? Say £200,000. A year not that much in football

Irish Sky Blue · Aug 23, 2019

Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
I share that fear BUT he may be more reluctant this time after he it went horrible wrong last time. He seems to 'fit' here and things seem to work out for him. Even when we got major injuries to 'key' players with JJ and Andreu it led to us finding that Max/McNulty formula which we might not have otherwise. But money talks and I guess ambition does to. If we're looking competitive I think he'd be more likely to stay.

Dowie was probably a bit hard done by, but he was the manager when the takeover occurred. He was definitely out of his honeymoon period and starting to struggle IMO and even without the takeover would probably have been ousted before long. I think the fact it was the Colman negative borefest that followed that elevates him above where he probably belongs, as with Black being followed by Reid.

I agree with most of this except the comment on Black. If ever there was someone hard done by it was him. Taking over from MacAlister, he turned us into an exciting winning team in much the same way that Robin’s did when taking over from Slade. He had Joachim, McSheffrey and Gudjonnson playing out of their skins,the latter to ditched by Reid as soon as he took over. He really deserved the chance to see what he could have achieved the following season.

Sky Blue Pete · Aug 23, 2019

Be nice to know if he’s contracted. But the fan base should absolutely respect the job he’s done in trying circumstances

nunchuckas · Aug 23, 2019

Sky Blue Pete said:
Be nice to know if he’s contracted. But the fan base should absolutely respect the job he’s done in trying circumstances

He signed an improved deal in June 2018, but we did not disclose the length...

Coventry City: Mark Robins extends contract as manager

From the sectionCoventry

Mark Robins is in his second spell as Coventry City manager
Coventry City manager Mark Robins has extended his contract with the newly-promoted League One club.

Robins and his assistant Adi Viveash have both agreed new and improved deals at the Ricoh Arena following the Sky Blues' League Two play-off final win.

"I'm delighted to extend my commitment to Coventry City and its supporters," Robins, 48, said.

Meanwhile assistant Steve Taylor has left the club due to health issues which saw him miss most of last season.

Robins returned to Coventry for a second spell as Sky Blues manager in March 2017, but the club has not disclosed the length of his new deal.

While he failed to keep them in League One last season, he did oversee a victory in the Football League Trophy before masterminding an immediate return to the third tier via the play-offs this season.

"The change from when I took over last March has been massive, both in terms of performances and the atmosphere around the club and the city," Robins said.

"Since I've come back, the supporters have backed me and the players 100%, and for me the reconnection between the players and the supporters is so important."

Coventry assistant Taylor leaves the club while he continues to receive treatment for a bleed on the brain, which was diagnosed after he collapsed on the training ground in August.

SkyblueBazza · Aug 23, 2019

Badger said:
Generally the players on higher wages are better players so the teams paying higher wager should be finishing in a better position. Leicester being an exception.

It's not rocket science is it? Seems like someone has turned the logic on its head & written a book on it though.

Given the principle - I think England players are always among the highest paid in the Euro & World Cup tournaments...how come we have only one win & a handful of hard lucks to show for it?

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Aug 23, 2019

Irish Sky Blue said:
I agree with most of this except the comment on Black. If ever there was someone hard done by it was him. Taking over from MacAlister, he turned us into an exciting winning team in much the same way that Robin’s did when taking over from Slade. He had Joachim, McSheffrey and Gudjonnson playing out of their skins,the latter to ditched by Reid as soon as he took over. He really deserved the chance to see what he could have achieved the following season.

I'm not saying he wasn't harshly treated - he most definitely was and didn't deserve to be sacked for a 'big name'. We were playing some very exciting football and I found it a very enjoyable time to watch us. When it worked it worked very well but when it didn't we really struggled but the fact we were trying to play exciting attacking football helped. Very similar to MR's approach in many ways.

It's a case of 'what might have been', especially if the rumours of his sacking were due to the board being unimpressed with the players he wanted to sign because there weren't any recognisable names on it. Maybe he'd just done a good scouting job and we could've found a few absolute gems. We'll never know.

His record is decent but we could also blow hot and cold under him and the fact he was replaced by Reid who was such a disaster has made it so that his tenure is even more favourable in the memory.

Manchester_sky_blue · Aug 23, 2019

fernandopartridge said:
Dowie was weird, he had some really memorable wins mixed with some really dire runs of results. That said, would rather have kept him than Coleman

I don't think Dowie ever got out of the mindset of being a player. He was always ridiculously over-the-top elated when we won and went in a massive sulk when we lost. Not saying it was a bad thing but it was atypical for a standard league manager. Never forget that cup game against Blackburn in 2008. When we scored our 4th goal i genuinely feared he was gonna have a stroke right there on the pitch. Like you, i would far rather have kept him than bringing in Coleman.

Manchester_sky_blue · Aug 23, 2019

Surprised me that MR is only the 21st longest serving manager across the leagues currently. Feels like he has been here a long time, longer than 2 years anyway.

Gibbo · Aug 23, 2019

skyblue025 said:
That won't really count for us as our player turnover is massive. He will have the positive effect on our players over a much longer period if the average time a player stays with us is 2 years. We signed a lot of players on 2 year deals at the start of last season. Most of them will now only have 8 months left. Some need to be offered new contracts sharpish.

There is something in that. And our player turnover is at a level of a total first team in 24 months. But it is then a trade off in that a buying / selling strategy carries big risk of failure. We all loved Kastenauer after Bristol - not so sure now.

Robins does seem comfortable with a high turnover of players while at the same time keeping a consistent selection policy. I will be extremely surprised if he departs from 4-3-3 even if Jobello is missing. O'Hare my find himself on the bench this Saturday

shmmeee · Aug 23, 2019

Tomh111 said:
This is going to descend into a debate far too complex for a coventry city forum!

There will always be exceptions to a rule - but I'd argue that unless we are clearly talking about exceptions e.g. Pep, Klopp, SAF and an early career Wenger - the rest fall within an entirely average and predictable norm.

I keep saying that I'm not totally behind the theory, I only ever really wanted to raise what is a quite interesting theory and shout up a really interesting book!

I just have a thing about predictive analytics when applied to individuals. ‘‘Twas triggered.

Mark Robins Manager Statistics (2 Viewers)

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