Middlesbrough, Sunderland, Millwall (4 Viewers)

rob9872 · May 3, 2023

Just over 8/1 for the treble on Monday.

There are other permutations that see us out of it, mainly including a ridiculous goal swing for WBA or Blackburn, but the only realistic scenario that sees us miss out is if these 3 win.

I've never backed against City before ever and I hope this bet loses, especially as I'll be at Boro having incurred lots of expense for tickets fuel and accommodation, but either we're in the play offs and I don't care or I get nearly £500 back for my £50 treble to soften the blow.

Anyone else tempted?

hill83 · May 3, 2023

Not in a million years am I ever betting against us. Regardless of odds or money. So no.

rob9872 · May 3, 2023

hill83 said:
Not in a million years am I ever betting against us. Regardless of odds or money. So no.

Fair play, what ive always said tbh although am genuinely tempted by this with play offs in touching distance.

Would pay for next year's season ticket.

Happy_Martian · May 3, 2023

rob9872 said:
Just over 8/1 for the treble on Monday.

There are other permutations that see us out of it, mainly including a ridiculous goal swing for WBA or Blackburn, but the only realistic scenario that sees us miss out is if these 3 win.

I've never backed against City before ever and I hope this bet loses, especially as I'll be at Boro having incurred lots of expense for tickets fuel and accommodation, but either we're in the play offs and I don't care or I get nearly £500 back for my £50 treble to soften the blow.

Anyone else tempted?

With my betting luck (about as low as my ability to predict anything correctly), I'm game though my bets are often for pennies, not pounds. Already got a 12 game acca set up for Monday so this would be another chance for whichever deity to kick me in the ass but ensure Cov progress. It's not something I enjoy doing but I'm not changing my mind when it's already worked against Blackburn, Birmingham and Reading

Astute · May 3, 2023

Always bet with your head and not your heart. And only bet what you can afford to lose as well as losing it wouldn't change your mood in the slightest.

Easy one for me. Not after a profit. Had an arse covering bet. Was quite confident a few weeks ago we would make the playoffs. Got 4/1. Now have 8.11/1 that my first bet will lose.

The first bet would pay for me to fly over and watch our 3 playoff wins. The second bet would cover the other stake and would leave enough over to sit outside my local bar watching the gorgeous French birds walking past to drown my sorrows

Going after a long shot means you will most probably lose. The value bet....and one you can win plus we make the playoffs is 6/4 on a Middlesbrough win. Lose the bet and the playoff place is ours.

M&B Stand · May 3, 2023

rob9872 said:
Just over 8/1 for the treble on Monday.

There are other permutations that see us out of it, mainly including a ridiculous goal swing for WBA or Blackburn, but the only realistic scenario that sees us miss out is if these 3 win.

I've never backed against City before ever and I hope this bet loses, especially as I'll be at Boro having incurred lots of expense for tickets fuel and accommodation, but either we're in the play offs and I don't care or I get nearly £500 back for my £50 treble to soften the blow.

Anyone else tempted?

Yep. Was gonna do £100, you can get 9/1 with a bit of searching.
In the play offs or a Grand back.

Obviously there’s a caveat, Albion win 3-0
And we lose by 2 and you lose bet and miss out. Much stranger things than that have happened.

shmmeee · May 3, 2023

Took my daughter to show her betting (my bets) for the first time at the Brum game, within 3 minutes we’d both lose our bets. I said that’s pretty much my lifetime experience of betting and why I don’t do it.

SkyblueDad · May 3, 2023

Middlesbrough game is a toughie, I have noticed little comments though apparently from Carrick about a few injury concerns for the play-offs doesn’t mean anything or he’s getting any excuses in early but I have my doubts they will be at full strength, Mondays game is pre play-offs but It’s down to us we are well equipped to get a result up there.

Ashdown · May 3, 2023

I’ll be glad when it’s all sorted. Unless you are at the match it’s torturous trying to visualise what’s happening.

fatso · May 3, 2023

rob9872 said:
Just over 8/1 for the treble on Monday.

There are other permutations that see us out of it, mainly including a ridiculous goal swing for WBA or Blackburn, but the only realistic scenario that sees us miss out is if these 3 win.

I've never backed against City before ever and I hope this bet loses, especially as I'll be at Boro having incurred lots of expense for tickets fuel and accommodation, but either we're in the play offs and I don't care or I get nearly £500 back for my £50 treble to soften the blow.

Anyone else tempted?

HOW DARE YOU!

May the fleas of a thousand camels infest your arsehole!!!

fatso · May 3, 2023

shmmeee said:
Took my daughter to show her betting (my bets) for the first time at the Brum game, within 3 minutes we’d both lose our bets. I said that’s pretty much my lifetime experience of betting and why I don’t do it.

One of the best lesson she'll ever get.

CCFCSteve · May 3, 2023

rob9872 said:
Just over 8/1 for the treble on Monday.

There are other permutations that see us out of it, mainly including a ridiculous goal swing for WBA or Blackburn, but the only realistic scenario that sees us miss out is if these 3 win.

I've never backed against City before ever and I hope this bet loses, especially as I'll be at Boro having incurred lots of expense for tickets fuel and accommodation, but either we're in the play offs and I don't care or I get nearly £500 back for my £50 treble to soften the blow.

Anyone else tempted?

I like your thinking. Confuse the betting/football gods…won’t know which way to fuck you.

I’m the opposite of others. I never bet on City or England….possible jinx

North York’s Blue · May 3, 2023

Ashdown said:
I’ll be glad when it’s all sorted. Unless you are at the match it’s torturous trying to visualise what’s happening.

Will probably spend half the game trying to find out what’s going on elsewhere

nicksar · May 3, 2023

rob9872 said:
Just over 8/1 for the treble on Monday.

There are other permutations that see us out of it, mainly including a ridiculous goal swing for WBA or Blackburn, but the only realistic scenario that sees us miss out is if these 3 win.

I've never backed against City before ever and I hope this bet loses, especially as I'll be at Boro having incurred lots of expense for tickets fuel and accommodation, but either we're in the play offs and I don't care or I get nearly £500 back for my £50 treble to soften the blow.

Anyone else tempted?

Odds of 8/1 is very poor value for a bet with a probability of 33/1 (or thereabouts).

Brighton Sky Blue · May 3, 2023

North York’s Blue said:
Will probably spend half the game trying to find out what’s going on elsewhere

‘And Ben Wilson has just made it 1-1, the Sky Blues fans going wi-well half of them are, the other half are still glued to their phones’

SkyblueDad · May 3, 2023

North York’s Blue said:
Will probably spend half the game trying to find out what’s going on elsewhere

Going to be tough to watch on tv and concentrate, very nervy with one ear on other games might even watch Sky sports first half where it flits from one match to the other as things happen.

Robinshio · May 3, 2023

North York’s Blue said:
Will probably spend half the game trying to find out what’s going on elsewhere

An early 2 goal lead will help!

rob9872 · May 3, 2023

nicksar said:
Odds of 8/1 is very poor value for a bet with a probability of 33/1 (or thereabouts).

If it was 33/1 we'd be 97% for the play offs but stats show our mathematical chance as 89%. 8/1 on that still less than optimum (should be 9/1) but the bookies will always have an edge.

Balli001 · May 3, 2023

North York’s Blue said:
Will probably spend half the game trying to find out what’s going on elsewhere

Only need to worry if we go behind

Sky Blue Harry H · May 3, 2023

Add in Brighton (home to Everton) and Villa at Wolves and we could buy out Mike Ashely between us.

nicksar · May 3, 2023

rob9872 said:
If it was 33/1 we'd be 97% for the play offs but stats show our mathematical chance as 89%. 8/1 on that still less than optimum (should be 9/1) but the bookies will always have an edge.

Good luck but obviously I hope you don't collect,as I'm sure you hope you lose as well.

rob9872 · May 3, 2023

8.5/1 Corals is best

SIR ERNIE · May 3, 2023

nicksar said:
Odds of 8/1 is very poor value for a bet with a probability of 33/1 (or thereabouts).

6/4 x 10/11 x 10/11 treble = 8/1 approx

8/1 is about right, you can probably get close to 9/1 if you shop around.

33/1 is cloud cuckoo land.

pusbccfc · May 3, 2023

rob9872 said:
Just over 8/1 for the treble on Monday.

There are other permutations that see us out of it, mainly including a ridiculous goal swing for WBA or Blackburn, but the only realistic scenario that sees us miss out is if these 3 win.

I've never backed against City before ever and I hope this bet loses, especially as I'll be at Boro having incurred lots of expense for tickets fuel and accommodation, but either we're in the play offs and I don't care or I get nearly £500 back for my £50 treble to soften the blow.

Anyone else tempted?

I always back the opposition. Lost loads on Saturday as I got excited by Birmingham being 7/1

North York’s Blue · May 3, 2023

slowpoke said:
Going to be tough to watch on tv and concentrate, very nervy with one ear on other games might even watch Sky sports first half where it flits from one match to the other as things happen.

I’m at the game itself, from memory last season the 4G connection wasn’t the best.

nicksar · May 3, 2023

SIR ERNIE said:
6/4 x 10/11 x 10/11 treble = 8/1 approx

8/1 is about right, you can probably get close to 9/1 if you shop around.

33/1 is cloud cuckoo land.

So you think the bookmakers offer true odds then...ever heard of the overound?....obviously my 33/1 was a joke but anyone who takes 8/1 isn't getting value...there is never any value in football betting end of.

SIR ERNIE · May 3, 2023

nicksar said:
So you think the bookmakers offer true odds then...ever heard of the overound?....obviously my 33/1 was a joke but anyone who takes 8/1 isn't getting value...there is never any value in football betting end of.

Sunderland 10/11
Millwall 10/11
Middlesbrough 6/4

In your cloud cuckoo land how much bigger should each of those prices be?

nicksar · May 3, 2023

SIR ERNIE said:
Sunderland 10/11
Millwall 10/11
Middlesbrough 6/4

In your cloud cuckoo land how much bigger should each of those prices be?

i don't live in cloud cuckoo land mate...and i have zero interest in getting in a pointless debate with you,so best leave it at that

Astute · May 3, 2023

SIR ERNIE said:
Sunderland 10/11
Millwall 10/11
Middlesbrough 6/4

In your cloud cuckoo land how much bigger should each of those prices be?

The Middlesbrough odds are about right. Good form at home but against a side that have only lost 1 game in the last 16.

Millwall odds on? How many are realistically confident of a Millwall win against Blackburn who have been very unlucky lately? Last game they narrowly beat Blackpool to send them down. In the last 8 games they have only won 1 other game. In the other 6 games they have only managed 2 goalless draws and lost the rest mainly against sides near the bottom. Including the 2 games they won in the last 8 they have only scored in 3 of them.

Sunderland? Decent away form. But they play at Preston. Preston have won 4 drawn 3 in their last 7 home games. They are not worth odds on either.

I would put their realistic chances closer to those of Middlesbrough. Doesn't sound a lot but the return would be about double.

SIR ERNIE · May 3, 2023

Astute said:
The Middlesbrough odds are about right. Good form at home but against a side that have only lost 1 game in the last 16.

Millwall odds on? How many are realistically confident of a Millwall win against Blackburn who have been very unlucky lately? Last game they narrowly beat Blackpool to send them down. In the last 8 games they have only won 1 other game. In the other 6 games they have only managed 2 goalless draws and lost the rest mainly against sides near the bottom. Including the 2 games they won in the last 8 they have only scored in 3 of them.

Sunderland? Decent away form. But they play at Preston. Preston have won 4 drawn 3 in their last 7 home games. They are not worth odds on either.

I would put their realistic chances closer to those of Middlesbrough. Doesn't sound a lot but the return would be about double.

Well ultimately it's the punters who determine the prices through the volume of bets on a particular outcome. So whilst you may imagine that Sunderland should be 6/4, the real market says otherwise.
In fact Millwall and Sunderland are both odds on on Betfair which proves my point.

Astute · May 3, 2023

SIR ERNIE said:
Well ultimately it's the punters who determine the prices through the volume of bets on a particular outcome. So whilst you may imagine that Sunderland should be 6/4, the real market says otherwise.
In fact Millwall and Sunderland are both odds on on Betfair which proves my point.

So you agree with me.

I have said the odds move slightly but the realistic odds are a bit different. They will all most probably be different by the time the games kick off depending on where the money is placed.

The bookies make sure they make a profit whatever the result. That's why all bookies offer different odds. And multiple bets can change it as well.

rob9872 · May 3, 2023

Astute said:
So you agree with me.

I have said the odds move slightly but the realistic odds are a bit different. They will all most probably be different by the time the games kick off depending on where the money is placed.

The bookies make sure they make a profit whatever the result. That's why all bookies offer different odds. And multiple bets can change it as well.

Not quite he isnt and you were advocating they should be more like 6/4 so if you see yourself as a value punter with head over heart as alluded to early on in here, you should be laying the crap out of a 10/11 shot.

Astute · May 3, 2023

rob9872 said:
Not quite he isnt and you were advocating they should be more like 6/4 so if you see yourself as a value punter with head over heart as alluded to early on in here, you should be laying the crap out of a 10/11 shot.

For starters I don't lay bets. The vast majority of the time us when I see decent odds on a result I'm confident in or for a game I'm watching for added interest.

I just look for value bets. Are you saying Millwall at 10/11 is value? 2 wins in last 8. Only scored in 3 games in their last 8. The better odds in that game are Blackburn at 16/5. But the luck certainly isn't with them. Look at the Wilson last gasp equaliser. So my cash won't be going there either.

Grendel · May 3, 2023

Astute said:
For starters I don't lay bets. The vast majority of the time us when I see decent odds on a result I'm confident in or for a game I'm watching for added interest.

I just look for value bets. Are you saying Millwall at 10/11 is value? 2 wins in last 8. Only scored in 3 games in their last 8. The better odds in that game are Blackburn at 16/5. But the luck certainly isn't with them. Look at the Wilson last gasp equaliser. So my cash won't be going there either.

Blackburn have an atrocious away record in the league. It’s one win this year isn’t it?

SHUNT31 · May 3, 2023

You can also back us not to make the playoffs at 5/1 on SkyBet.

Removes the other scenarios such as West Brom etc.

Middlesbrough, Sunderland, Millwall (4 Viewers)

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