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More xG Stuff (1 Viewer)

  • Thread starter edgy
  • Start date Jan 14, 2025
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edgy

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #1


Start taking the bloody chances!
 
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SonofErnie

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #2
Maybe my eyes are telling a different story, but I’m just not seeing the abundance of clear cut chances we are supposed to be creating. Glaring defensive errors on the other hand are clear and obvious.
 
Reactions: Batu1969

PUSB-We_are_going_up

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #3
If we start getting clean sheets or learning how to defend a lead we’ll start winning games
 
Reactions: Hincha
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willz121

Active Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #4
Looking at the graphic, our xG for should be around 40 (currently 34) and our xG against should be 27ish (currently 37), so it points towards us conceding cheap goals, which when you look back at some of the howlers we've had this year is very apparent! There are some games as well where we were heavily in favour in terms of xG vs xGA but we ended up losing. Take West Brom away, our xG was 2.2 and our xGA was 0.5 - and we lost 2-0!
 

Saddlebrains

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #5
How many points do we get given for Xg again?

Oh that's it 0

Pathetic obsession with it the last couple of seasons
 
Reactions: Old Warwickshire lad, TomS91, Skyblueweeman and 2 others

mmttww

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #6
Saddlebrains said:
How many points do we get given for Xg again?

Oh that's it 0

Pathetic obsession with it the last couple of seasons
Click to expand...



You ok, hun?
 
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SkyBlueSteve81

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #7
As a metric to look at more than just the end score it can be helpful when judging a teams overall performance. However the only one that actually matters is the points column in the league table. Having fabulous xG and xGA shows that we aren't a million miles away from getting decent results but it won't count for anything if we don't put points on the board.

I'd rather be winning games 1-0 with a poor xG than have a high xG and get turned over 0-1.
 
Reactions: Old Warwickshire lad and Noble
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SkyB

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #8
SonofErnie said:
Maybe my eyes are telling a different story, but I’m just not seeing the abundance of clear cut chances we are supposed to be creating. Glaring defensive errors on the other hand are clear and obvious.
Click to expand...

I've decide I'm going to trawl through our highlights from this year and piece together the high xG chances we've misses this season into a compilation. Please leave below any suggestions (Slow day at work).
 

edgy

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #9
SkyB said:
I've decide I'm going to trawl through our highlights from this year and piece together the high xG chances we've misses this season into a compilation. Please leave below any suggestions (Slow day at work).
Click to expand...

Not sure where the data is from but....

 
Reactions: Jamesimus and PUSB-We_are_going_up

TomS91

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #10
SkyB said:
I've decide I'm going to trawl through our highlights from this year and piece together the high xG chances we've misses this season into a compilation. Please leave below any suggestions (Slow day at work).
Click to expand...
BTA at Norwich. There were 5 missed v Cardiff. That's a strong start to your compilation.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #11
edgy said:
Not sure where the data is from but....

View attachment 40741
Click to expand...

The rest of the top of that list if the top of the league though. Same as it’s the best strikers at the top of the individual leagues.
 

Frostie

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #12
edgy said:
Not sure where the data is from but....

View attachment 40741
Click to expand...

Opta
 
Reactions: edgy

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #13
Saddlebrains said:
How many points do we get given for Xg again?

Oh that's it 0

Pathetic obsession with it the last couple of seasons
Click to expand...
It's pretty obvious that it's a good barometer of performance levels
 
Reactions: Evo1883, Yorkshire SB and skybluecam

Saddlebrains

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #14
fernandopartridge said:
It's pretty obvious that it's a good barometer of performance levels
Click to expand...
Yea clearly, we're Barcelona according to that metric yet languish in 16th place
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #15
Saddlebrains said:
Yea clearly, we're Barcelona according to that metric yet languish in 16th place
Click to expand...
We're clearly an exception because the teams placed similarly to us are all in the top half of the table
 
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SBAndy

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #16
shmmeee said:
The rest of the top of that list if the top of the league though. Same as it’s the best strikers at the top of the individual leagues.
Click to expand...

On this, Bassette ranks 5th on the ‘xG per 90’ metric. That came as a surprise.
 
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JimmyHillsbeard

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #17
Anyone see Arsenal - Man United in the cup? Xg was something like 3- 0.5 to Arsenal. No surprise that they didn’t win as not taking the good opportunities they create is one of their chief characteristics.

At what point do we see XG as a symptom of our deficiencies rather than evidence that it will all come good in the end.
 
Reactions: Saddlebrains

Alkhen

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #18
Saddlebrains said:
Yea clearly, we're Barcelona according to that metric yet languish in 16th place
Click to expand...
I don't really get your point? xG is just a way of measuring chances created not a mark of success or an achievement in its self, nobody is trying to say that. We've just been shite in front of goal.

Anyone can see we have missed a lot of gilt edged chances and would be a lot healthier position if we'd been more clinical. something to work on at least.
 
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Saddlebrains

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #19
Alkhen said:
I don't really get your point? xG is just a way of measuring chances created not a mark of success or an achievement in its self, nobody is trying to say that. We've just been shite in front of goal.

Anyone can see we have missed a lot of gilt edged chances and would be a lot healthier position if we'd been more clinical. something to work on at least.
Click to expand...


Everyone wanks over it. Anyone I see here or on socials trying to make out we aren't shite this season starts on about XG

The cold hard facts are we have won only 7 of 26 league games, and are 6 points off the bottom 3 having spent the most money we have spent in the clubs history

XG can get to fuck
 
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Sky Blue Goblin

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #20
Saddlebrains said:
How many points do we get given for Xg again?

Oh that's it 0

Pathetic obsession with it the last couple of seasons
Click to expand...
Can’t diagnose problems without looking at causes?

If we had none like at Millwall we know the problem was lacking creative players if we don’t score them the issue is our shooting or producing lots of low chances in games.

Don’t think it’s as important as some people make out but is a good tool as opposed to just shots as the quality isn’t measured.

On the graph I’d point out that’s way more a negative than a positive
 
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PVA

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #21
Saddlebrains said:
Everyone wanks over it. Anyone I see here or on socials trying to make out we aren't shite this season starts on about XG

The cold hard facts are we have won only 7 of 26 league games, and are 6 points off the bottom 3 having spent the most money we have spent in the clubs history

XG can get to fuck
Click to expand...

The top clubs spend millions of pounds on it. Clearly they aren't just doing it for a laugh
 

mmttww

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #22
Saddlebrains said:
Everyone wanks over it.
Click to expand...

Haven't found that tag on Pornhub; I'll keep digging.
 
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edgy

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #23
mmttww said:
Haven't found that tag on Pornhub; I'll keep digging.
Click to expand...

xG - Expected Gash
 
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b12345

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #24
Seems like a pretty flawed stat to me. The only reason we look good on this is because we've had to chase so many games this season, which will always be conducive to producing a lot of xG if the opposition are sitting back defending a lead. Can barely think of any games we've drawn or lost this season where I've come away thinking we were the better side and deserved more.
 
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fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #25
b12345 said:
Seems like a pretty flawed stat to me. The only reason we look good on this is because we've had to chase so many games this season, which will always be conducive to producing a lot of xG if the opposition are sitting back defending a lead. Can barely think of any games we've drawn or lost this season where I've come away thinking we were the better side and deserved more.
Click to expand...

Plymouth and Cardiff both have spent more time trailing than Cov yet sit in the bottom left quartile, I'd suggest your conclusion is flawed.

Can barely think of any games we've drawn or lost this season where I've come away thinking we were the better side and deserved more.
Click to expand...

Great, i'll take that over the detailed analysis that underpins xG.
 
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skybluecam

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #26
b12345 said:
Seems like a pretty flawed stat to me. The only reason we look good on this is because we've had to chase so many games this season, which will always be conducive to producing a lot of xG if the opposition are sitting back defending a lead. Can barely think of any games we've drawn or lost this season where I've come away thinking we were the better side and deserved more.
Click to expand...
Just since Lampard's been here we've had both Cardiff games and West Brom where we easily created more opportunities and drew/lost through a combination of deflections, poor keeping and poor finishing.
 

skybluecam

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #27
Saddlebrains said:
Everyone wanks over it. Anyone I see here or on socials trying to make out we aren't shite this season starts on about XG

The cold hard facts are we have won only 7 of 26 league games, and are 6 points off the bottom 3 having spent the most money we have spent in the clubs history

XG can get to fuck
Click to expand...
xG is fairly well proven as a better predictor of future results than actual goals

That said, it's not the be all and end all. There's obviously things that don't factor in to xG that do contribute to performances/results. And I did read some quite compelling analysis that suggested a weighted average of 1/3 actual goals and 2/3 xG is an even better predictor.

I would argue anyone who has watched us can see that we are certainly a better team than our league position suggests.
 

Saddlebrains

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #28
skybluecam said:
xG is fairly well proven as a better predictor of future results than actual goals

That said, it's not the be all and end all. There's obviously things that don't factor in to xG that do contribute to performances/results. And I did read some quite compelling analysis that suggested a weighted average of 1/3 actual goals and 2/3 xG is an even better predictor.

I would argue anyone who has watched us can see that we are certainly a better team than our league position suggests.
Click to expand...
I've got a season ticket and I think we are where we should be tbh

We leak goals, and miss gilt edged chances
 

SlowerThanPlatt

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #29
Saddlebrains said:
miss gilt edged chances
Click to expand...
xG shagger
 
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TomS91

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #30
Saddlebrains said:
We leak goals, and miss gilt edged chances
Click to expand...
You've literally just described the logical explanation of what is on that graph that you're dismissing.
 
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False9

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #31
Saddlebrains said:
We leak goals, and miss gilt edged chances
Click to expand...
Correct which is what our xg stats suggest
 
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Calista

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #32
The chart reinforces my feeling that our general play has been decent nearly all season (bar a small number of poor games or horrible halves). The problems have been in both penalty areas, which obviously translates into points being lost. I actually think we've had more than our fair share of bad luck too.

Most of the doom-laden talk on here (both before and after the change of manager) has been way over the top IMO. We've gone from upper mid table (the last couple of seasons) to lower mid table, which isn't disastrous. A few tweaks to the squad and we have the potential to be a very good side.
 
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skybluecam

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #33
Calista said:
The chart reinforces my feeling that our general play has been decent nearly all season (bar a small number of poor games or horrible halves). The problems have been in both penalty areas, which obviously translates into points being lost. I actually think we've had more than our fair share of bad luck too.

Most of the doom-laden talk on here (both before and after the change of manager) has been way over the top IMO. We've gone from upper mid table (the last couple of seasons) to lower mid table, which isn't disastrous. A few tweaks to the squad and we have the potential to be a very good side.
Click to expand...
Historically bad goalkeeping too.

Statistically Brad Collins has had a terrible season, I flicked through the stats and over the last 5 seasons he's put in the worst keeping performance on average, excluding people who only played 1 or 2 games.
 
B

b12345

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #34
fernandopartridge said:
Plymouth and Cardiff both have spent more time trailing than Cov yet sit in the bottom left quartile, I'd suggest your conclusion is flawed.



Great, i'll take that over the detailed analysis that underpins xG.
Click to expand...
Thanks for telling me that we're better than the two worst teams in the league. Couldn't have worked that out without that precious data
 
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Nuskyblue

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 14, 2025
  • #35
shmmeee said:
The rest of the top of that list if the top of the league though. Same as it’s the best strikers at the top of the individual leagues.
Click to expand...
The teams that make the most big chances miss the most big chances as a rule
 
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