Mowbray, League 1 and finance (10 Viewers)

I think most city fans are sitting waiting anxiously to see two things

- League 1 survival guaranteed
- whether Mowbray signs on for next season but preferably longer

Mowbray has proven that with one shrewd loan and proper management that there is potential for CCFC to be safe in L1 next season. He hasn't pointed to it but he has highlighted so much of what was wrong under the previous manager. To be successful we need him or a manager like him. Success has to be seen to be at least challenging all season at the right end of the league doesn't it?

For him to stay is going to take firm financial commitments from the owners. There I think is where the problem is going to be. The five point plan says that the club aims to be independent of the owners (SISU & ARVO). That means there is no more finance coming in via ARVO or the SISU investors it would seem. There are no assets to hang loans off. We are told the budgets for 2015/16 are set to enable the club to break even before interest charges. How then do they achieve all that and invest in the playing squad to a level that satisfies Mowbray?

Will income increase? - some of the FL income will but unless CCFC start winning regularly and playing better football than this last season matchday income will not. Many fans I think are waiting to see what happens before making their investment in 2015/16 some may well never return. Opportunities for creating or improving other incomes are there but this last years performance on that score by CCFC has been pretty shabby. Then the one thing that gave us a budget at all - player sales. Is there a potential player sale that would match the sale of Wilson last year, I don't see one as of now. Yes the likes of Maddison may well develop into saleable assets but that is not there now. But selling all the best players to survive brings disincentive to any manager - they may understand it but wont like it

BTW by looking at the accounts you can get a feel for the totals of players purchased or sold under SISU ownership. The net surplus has been applied to meet the day to day running costs. The "model" relies heavily on player sales to make ends meet

between February 2008 and 31 May 2014 (thats the only accounts available and therefore wont include the Wilson sale etc)

Purchases £7,769,542
Sales Est.£ 13,092,873

Surplus applied to day to day running costs (player wages, other wages, overheads etc) £5,323,331

So it would be reasonable to assume that selling players will remain integral to the 5 point plan for the club.

But if there is no new funding, there is no increase in income or maybe there is a decrease, the best players are to be sold as soon as possible simply for the club to survive then what is the attraction for someone like Mowbray? The rhetoric regarding the team might say we have a squad capable, it might say we have an upper quartile budget (but do we actually spend it?) but look at what else has been said and largely left unchallenged about the finances.

Yes the club needs more income streams, a new stadium might be a solution but I am not convinced because together with extra income it brings large extra cost too, but the problem is now not in 5 years time. If the club directors want to retain Mowbray (and most would agree we should) then they need to provide the financial backing to support a proper challenge by a balanced strong squad, supported by the relevant coaching staff and football networks, not to mention a salary package that meets a managers expectations (lets be honest he should be Championship or above not L1). All that takes a lot of money and brings with it the possibility of losses or failure not just longed for success. Will they take that risk, will they provide additional financial support......... we wait and see but to be honest I am not hopeful

If they do take the risk and we get promoted how can we stay there. In theory we could be Championship 2016/17, the mythical ground wont be built by then, we will need to renew the option at the Ricoh or move elsewhere. That just looks like 2017/18 back in L1 and potential further decline is likely. You see the undertakings given to Mowbray can not just be about 2015/16 can they. If the owners do not match the ambition of the manager to achieve at higher levels why does he stay? Do the owners want the club in the Championship or are we parked in L1?

On a different thought when does someone get held to account for the scouting network debacle. When does someone take responsibility for letting the scouting system crash especially when it is so crucial to the five point plan to identify young players with the right DNA and to bring them in to the academy we apparently fund at £1.25m each year. Again unless sorted properly then this must give Mowbray doubts and make it more costly to obtain his services going forward

Finally - have they actually started proper talks with him to retain his services. His contract runs out next weekend doesn't it? After which he is a free agent open to offers :thinking about:

being asked would be a novelty Otis :laugh: I generally get what the kids want

Summary

Retaining Mowbray seen as essential by fans. Will require funding from somewhere. Unlikely to be by increased income. Player sales key to survival but we have none to sell at this time. Owners have indicated no more funding going forward. If we cant fund L1 properly then no chance of funding Championship. Do owners really want promotion? Who was responsible for the scouting network failure? Under SISU ownership club has made over 5m profit on player trading before adding in Wilson sale. What is said about team ambitions does not appear to be matched by what we know of finances. Will Mowbray stay? hope so but have they started negotiations yet with 1 week left on his contract?

that better ?

I wonder why the club isn't maximising it at the moment then?

To answer a few points and perhaps pose further questions

the purchase and sale of players in recent years. These are from accounts to 31/05 each year

2012 - Purchase 994k Est Sales Proceeds £3.16m
2013 - Purchase 112k Est Sales Proceeds £1.80m
2014 - Purchase 158k Est sales proceeds £1.02m

We were told that Wilson went for 3m add to that Christie and add ons for Juke in 2015 accounts. On the other side there will be cancellation costs for the likes of Baker & McSheffery etc. Did we buy anyone?

So very much been selling capital assets to fund revenue costs in recent years. Trouble is there is little left in the parlour and that which is there has yet to ripen to any real degree

I would agree Mowbray isn't the only manager who could do the right job but he is the one in place at the moment and it is easier to retain than find. He has shown all the right attributes, others also could certainly but I think it is obvious that to make it work it has to be a manager that really can man manage and is backed by the owners financially. Cottrill at Bristol has done a great job at Bristol but he has been backed significantly by the owner financially

Crowds will increase with success certainly but in my opinion it wont improve the average for each game significantly until there is sustained success. The relationship with a lot of fans is fractured, many simply wont believe in the success so wont part with the money. Average this season 8500? I think it was said that break even is 11000 in current set up. so crowds have to increase significantly to break even let alone provide extra funding for the squad

Say we do get promoted, yes there will be a wave of optimism, yes crowds will increase (partly because of bigger away followings of the teams we would be playing), yes incomes will increase both match day and commercially. Fisher once said it was worth 5m. BUT so will costs increase particularly the wage costs. If we go up surely the object is to stay up? if so that will require investment in players the sufficient right quality of players will not be found in loans of U21's or freebies (yes some but not all). Also with increased cost the break even point is raised. At some point too the rent & ground costs would be increased

I do not believe in the new stadium at all at this point. I have seen nothing that persuades me that significant extra cost would not negate its benefit. Take for example the claim of 365 day income - it conveniently ignores the 365 day costs. Even if you just look at the pitch & stands - they would go from £100k ish per annum to having to maintain it 365 days of the year. How much does a team of groundsmen cost, how much is grass seed or fertiliser, how much does the maintenance equipment cost etc ?

What is the right model though - because I am having a little trouble seeing how they match "ambition" to the available finance

I do not have any faith in TF or SW to get this right. That's why I mentioned the scouting net work. At times it is portrayed that it is so or so's fault but bottom line is the two of them are absolutely aware of what is going on and control under JS's financial direction the decisions at CCFC. That has been the case for years but SW gets a far easier ride that TF or JS

summary

last three years to 31/05/14has seen est 5.9m proceeds from player sales
As Wilson and Christie came through the academy there is no capital cost to their sales - all profit in the accounts
there are no assets to sell for significant money any more
crowds increasing with a little success is not a given
crowds increasing past breakeven is even now a big ask
breakeven increases with promotion
promotion brings need for better players which cost more
the new ground still remains a fantasy to most
SW & TF are as bad (good?) as each other imo

cc4l for once I absolutely hope you are right........... time will tell what sisu are prepared to do

I don't see the fans owning part of the club though with the current owners like is the case at Swansea

fernandopartridge said:

In fairness, stocking the club shop would be a start.

What happened to ideas like a pie and pint with tickets? Now the club gains something from food & drink outlets this could be a consideration?

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Exactly that would be a start wouldn't it. But I still see knee jerk reaction rather than a plan to merchandise/promote the club. There are events etc they could put on, there are initiatives they could take. Don't sell cheap tickets to schools give them - would it cost the club anything more to fill more seats?. Exploit the fan base encourage allegiance for now and the future. There is plenty of talk about creating links with community or business but I see precious little of it. The club seems to piggy back it all on the back of the SBITC charity (who do a great job) but even they include a cost for match day tickets in their accounts. Think outside the box, think about what can be done, throw a small amount of funds at it (eg the shop). Make it work.

One thing this whole saga seems to have done is make most focus on the negatives, to focus on what can not be done, think up reasons to excuse poor performance or lack of thought/effort, to find a scapegoat to blame. The ethos at the club is never going to change on or off the pitch whilst that is allowed to be how we approach everything. Above all its costing CCFC valuable revenue.

Noggin said:

I think OSB's point (correct me if I'm wrong mate) really is that it's not actually possible for sisu to back him under the status quo (nore unfortunately under any reasonably likely change to the status quo)

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No I agree. Whilst I hope they do back him properly it surely has to be at the expense of creating more debt (or pseudo debt of preference shares). They have said they don't want to fund extra debt. So its a rock and a hard place situation really. Now and in future it would seem. Of course they may have a plan..... ?