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Otis · Mar 20, 2018

Londonccfcfan said:
Bollocks, shit result.

Otis im afraid no one understands your logic. How you would want a promotion rival to get anything from tonight is beyond me.

It was crystal clear and made perfect sense.

No-one wanted a rival to get any points, so let's not twist that one round like a dodgy politician. And less of the 'no-one' understands my logic. Just speak for yourself, thanks.

A draw tonight for Port Vale that would then give them heart going into the Wycombe game and would also have Exeter dropping 2 points and would have resulted in 2 games, 1 point for them.

It just might well have been a better scenario for us. You have to look at all our rivals, not just one and the games ahead and a draw would have still left Exeter behind us.

Now though we have a dejected and crestfallen Port Vale having to face Wycombe on the back of another defeat and no wins in 13.

Otis · Mar 20, 2018

A draw for Port Vale tonight would have given them a bit of hope, but wouldn't see them safe.

A win tonight would have almost certainly seem them safe and not needing any points at Wycombe.

At least now they desperately do need the points.

Esoterica · Mar 20, 2018

Otis said:
It was crystal clear and made perfect sense.

No-one wanted a rival to get any points, so let's not twist that one round like a dodgy politician.

A draw tonight for Port Vale that would then give them heart going into the Wycombe game and would also have Exeter dropping 2 points and would have resulted in 2 games, 1 point for them.

It just might well have been a better scenario for us.

Now though we have a dejected and crestfallen Port Vale having to face Wycombe on the back of another defeat and no wins in 13.

It's not really twisting it! Essentially you wanted a rival to gain a point on us because you're projecting an imaginary psychological reaction onto an entire squad of players which you are supposing may then impact their future performances against other rivals! I find it a bit bonkers when there's that much supposition involved!
For me we make sure we win all our games and then hope like hell every other team around us loses to anyone not in the top 10 or draws if playing a promotion rival so that 2 rivals drop points.

Otis · Mar 20, 2018

Esoterica said:
It's not really twisting it! Essentially you wanted a rival to gain a point on us because you're projecting an imaginary psychological reaction onto an entire squad of players which you are supposing may then impact their future performances against other rivals! I find it a bit bonkers when there's that much supposition involved!
For me we make sure we win all our games and then hope like hell every other team around us loses to anyone not in the top 10 or draws if playing a promotion rival so that 2 rivals drop points.

I want Wycombe to drop points too, as we all should.

I most certainly did not WANT Exeter to draw. And we both know it's not an imaginary effect. History and stats tell you if you lose it has a psychological effect on a team and can leave you downhearted and low on moral.

Londonccfcfan · Mar 20, 2018

Otis said:
I want Wycombe to drop points too, as we all should.

I most certainly did not WANT Exeter to draw. And we both know it's not an imaginary effect. History and stats tell you if you lose it has a psychological effect on a team and can leave you downhearted and low on moral.

WHICH is why you would want a rival to lose!

Otis · Mar 20, 2018

Londonccfcfan said:
WHICH is why you would want a rival to lose!

We will just go round in circles.

I am simply looking at today's AND Saturday's games and we want Wycombe to drop points too.

I clearly never said I wanted a draw and a point for Exeter. If you look at my post I suggested a best case scenario.

I most certainly did NOT want Exeter to pick up any points, but said it might work out for the best with Saturday's games to come.

We really could do with Port Vale picking up points against Wycombe. I would say that is less likely now.

Exeter was at home. Wycombe is away.

Liquid Gold · Mar 20, 2018

statistically port vale are bound to win again some time, let's just hope it's Saturday.

Otis · Mar 20, 2018

Liquid Gold said:
statistically port vale are bound to win again some time, let's just hope it's Saturday.

Yep.

Fingers crossed. Sounds like they put in a decent effort tonight and went close a few times.

They are still in real trouble, so do still need the points.

Interesting to note that Crewe won tonight (took them to 40 points) and the fans were all singing 'we're staying up.'

Port Vale win tonight would have had them on 41 and almost certainly very close to safety.

Think it was a very genuine concern to put forwards that a win tonight for them might well have had them taking their foot off the gas on Saturday. Has happened with many a team over the years.

They now desperately need a point or 3 and hopefully they can get 1 at Wycombe. Wycombe have to be overwhelming favourites though for the 3 points there.

Grendel · Mar 21, 2018

Otis said:
How do you figure that out? If Luton or Mansfield win 8 and Wycombe win 8 and or Exeter win 9 then no we won't.

Teams above us have more points than us, so if they win out (as long as they don't play each other) they will all finish above us.

They are playing each other and we play two of them.

Otis · Mar 21, 2018

Grendel said:
They are playing each other and we play two of them.

Lincoln are behind us, so it's only the one isn't it, Notts County?

itsabuzzard · Mar 21, 2018

Londonccfcfan said:
Bollocks, shit result.

Otis im afraid no one understands your logic. How you would want a promotion rival to get anything from tonight is beyond me.

I understood it perfectly. Can't understand why there's any argument to be had. Bizarre.

Sent from my LG-H850 using Tapatalk

Otis · Mar 21, 2018

itsabuzzard said:
I understood it perfectly. Can't understand why there's any argument to be had. Bizarre.

Sent from my LG-H850 using Tapatalk

Cheers for that.

Was just looking over two games and not just last night and of the possibility of two rivals dropping points and knowing it was highly unlikely for a team that hasn't won since December (Port Vale) to suddenly pick up back to back wins against two of the top teams in the division.

Londonccfcfan · Mar 21, 2018

Otis said:
Cheers for that.

Was just looking over two games and not just last night and of the possibility of two rivals dropping points and knowing it was highly unlikely for a team that hasn't won since December (Port Vale) to suddenly pick up back to back wins against two of the top teams in the division.

Omg there’s two fruitcakes.

Londonccfcfan · Mar 21, 2018

It’s Morecambe vs Lincoln this weekend.

According to your theory (for want of a better word) you will be hoping Morecambe Don’t Win this one your hoping for another draw. Because (let’s look ahead) to Morecambe next game after that which is Swindon away.

So according to your theory you don’t want any of the teams at the bottom to beat any of our promotion rivals because you want the team at the bottom to stay in a relegation battle for as long as possible.

Lol. Not too sure about that.

Londonccfcfan · Mar 21, 2018

Otis said:
Cheers for that.

Was just looking over two games and not just last night and of the possibility of two rivals dropping points and knowing it was highly unlikely for a team that hasn't won since December (Port Vale) to suddenly pick up back to back wins against two of the top teams in the division.

Why’s it highly unlikely the last they won one, they went on and won four in a row including 4 nil vs Luton in December.

Bizarre.

CCFC88 · Mar 21, 2018

Lots of silly comments in this thread about who wants who to get which results.

Realistically we want every team to draw every game apart from us, who win every game.

Adge · Mar 21, 2018

Balls to everyone else, let's just concentrate on ourselves and make sure we do the business.

Otis · Mar 21, 2018

Londonccfcfan said:
Why’s it highly unlikely the last they won one, they went on and won four in a row including 4 nil vs Luton in December.

Bizarre.

Which was back in December and have not won a game since.

Bizarre indeed.

Otis · Mar 21, 2018

CCFC88 said:
Lots of silly comments in this thread about who wants who to get which results.

Realistically we want every team to draw every game apart from us, who win every game.

Could not agree more.

Otis · Mar 21, 2018

Londonccfcfan said:
It’s Morecambe vs Lincoln this weekend.

According to your theory (for want of a better word) you will be hoping Morecambe Don’t Win this one your hoping for another draw. Because (let’s look ahead) to Morecambe next game after that which is Swindon away.

So according to your theory you don’t want any of the teams at the bottom to beat any of our promotion rivals because you want the team at the bottom to stay in a relegation battle for as long as possible.

Lol. Not too sure about that.

Morecambe are almost safe. 9 points clear and have very recently beaten both Wycombe and Exeter. So a rather daft comparison.

Port Vale hadn't won in 12 matches. Big difference.

I don't quite understand why people can't have a different opinion to your own.

Your belief that you want every rival to lose every game isn't bonkers (though unrealistic) and by the same token my looking at 2 games down the line and likliehoods isn't bonkers either.

It's just a difference of opinion and focus. Not quite sure why you have a problem with that.

Anyone who has watched football for any length of time knows that teams can get pretty much safe and then fail to turn up and not deliver the required effort or be as motivated in following matches. Happened time and time again theougthro footballing history.

A win for Port Vale last night would have meant that there was not as much urgency at all for them to get a point or 3 off Wycombe.

I simply want both teams to fail, Exeter AND Wycombe.

I fail to see how that is bonkers and I don't understand why you keep wishing to perpetuate the debate.

Find it a tad odd.

Londonccfcfan · Mar 21, 2018

Otis said:
Morecambe are almost safe. 9 points clear and have very recently beaten both Wycombe and Exeter. So a rather daft comparison.

Port Vale hadn't won in 12 matches. Big difference.

I don't quite understand why people can't have a different opinion to your own.

Your belief that you want every rival to lose every game isn't bonkers (though unrealistic) and by the same token my looking at 2 games down the line and likliehoods isn't bonkers either.

It's just a difference of opinion and focus. Not quite sure why you have a problem with that.

Anyone who has watched football for any length of time knows that teams can get pretty much safe and then fail to turn up and not deliver the required effort or be as motivated in following matches. Happened time and time again theougthro footballing history.

A win for Port Vale last night would have meant that there was not as much urgency at all for them to get a point or 3 off Wycombe.

I simply want both teams to fail, Exeter AND Wycombe.

I fail to see how that is bonkers and I don't understand why you keep wishing to perpetuate the debate.

Find it a tad odd.

Hmmmm. Yes a big difference in opinion.

Funny how you you all of a sudden look at two games (the bigger picture) when don’t usually look beyond one.

Don’t bite.

Otis · Mar 21, 2018

Londonccfcfan said:
Hmmmm. Yes a big difference in opinion.

Funny how you you all of a sudden look at two games (the bigger picture) when don’t usually look beyond one.

Don’t bite.

Because we are coming to the end of the season, that's why. It's not great mystery and makes for common sense thinking.

It wasn't of such relevance before and now there are just 9 games to go and we have a pretty good idea now of how many points will be probably be needed and how many games we we probably need to win. That is why I am now looking at it, because now it has become more relevant.

We are just approaching it from different angles you and I.

You are talking about wanting, hoping and wishing we win every match and hoping every rival loses theirs and rooting for their opponents.

If I put that head on I am with you. Of course I want every rival to lose every game. We all do.

All I have been doing though is putting my realist head on and knowing that is highly unlikely we are going to win every game and all but impossible for every rival to lose theirs when they are not playing each other.

That has been my approach here. Wish head of course wants every rival to be beaten, but the realist in me looked and could see that it was highly unlikely Port Vale would suddenly win two games in a row against top opposition after not winning in 12.

It's that simple.

Two different ways of looking at it and I am a realist enough to know we probably are not going to win 9 in a row and probably won't win 7 or 8 either.

Are we capable of winning 6 though? Yeah, I think we are.

MatthewWallis · Mar 21, 2018

The petty arguments on this website is one of the most boring things ever

Otis · Mar 21, 2018

MatthewWallis said:
The petty arguments on this website is one of the most boring things ever

I agree.

Happy for Nick to lock it.

Must learn to bite my lip, but do have a tendency to keep wanting to prove my point if I think someone has got the wrong end of the stick in what I am saying.

Must be incredibly boring for everyone else though.

Now you know how I feel when it comes to my missus.

Otis · Mar 21, 2018

What I usually do (and would recommend to others) when it seems to turn into a two person battle/debate , is to take it to the PM and talk about it there.

More often than not it is sorted and both posters have an acceptance of the other's standpoint.

When Tony and Grendel, or Italia and Grendel, or anyone and Grendel start having a ding dong I usually avoid the thread completely and start making nonsense ones up about changing every word in the world etc.

Grendel · Mar 21, 2018

Otis said:
I agree.

Happy for Nick to lock it.

Must learn to bite my lip, but do have a tendency to keep wanting to prove my point if I think someone has got the wrong end of the stick in what I am saying.

Must be incredibly boring for everyone else though.

Now you know how I feel when it comes to my missus.

In the end you focus to much on what if when and other games. There is still 20% of a season to go. The club wins 7 or 8 of its remaining games it will be promoted. If it wins 5 and draws a couple then it will be in the play offs

Otis · Mar 21, 2018

Grendel said:
In the end you focus to much on what if when and other games. There is still 20% of a season to go. The club wins 7 or 8 of its remaining games it will be promoted. If it wins 5 and draws a couple then it will be in the play offs

I agree. It is something that fascinates me and I do like to delve into what I think may well happen and look at trends with other teams etc.

ccfcricoh · Mar 21, 2018

Some wanted a PV win - some a draw - neither happened...lets move on!

So Exeter/Swindon - what result is best there? Can we all agree a draw?!

As long as Grimsby lose I'll be happy!

Otis · Mar 21, 2018

ccfcricoh said:
Some wanted a PV win - some a draw - neither happened...lets move on!

So Exeter/Swindon - what result is best there? Can we all agree a draw?!

As long as Grimsby lose I'll be happy!

A draw would be perfect, though Exeter's following game is against Lincoln, so th may well end up dropping points there if they do beat Swindon.

Hadji's_Goatee · Mar 21, 2018

Otis said:
Just making a point.

For some reason we seem to think our games are winnable.

We will almost certainly have to win at least 6 of our last 9 games to achieve automatic promotion.

Are we really capable of that? Hand on heart?

Highly unlikely unfortunately.

Actually history suggests

JamesCCFC said:
You're right in saying it's not an impossible task, but it's certainly a difficult one. In the last 3 seasons 3rd place in League Two has been secured by a tally of 85 points. Given that there's 9 games left and we're on 61 points, that's 8 wins out of 9 to guarantee us an automatic spot. Obviously the potential points average for 3rd place is going to be lower this season as the league has been relatively tight throughout. But even so, it's a big ask for a team who have struggled to consistently dominate a game all season.

Our run in doesn't fill me with confidence either, given that we've struggled against lesser sides time and again this season. The Barnet game last Saturday is a prime example. If the gods weren't in our favour on the day we could've easily lost that game 3-0. With 6 teams out of the 9 games to play in the bottom half of the table, we need to make sure we don't repeat the performances of that saw the likes of FGR do the double over us.

Actually, last season you only needed 78 pts to secure 3rd spot (Luton were 4th on 77).

On average over the last 17 seasons 80pts would be enough to secure 3rd spot. So Otis’s 6 wins from 9 looks about right.

The chances are very high that this will be the most eventful end to the season at the right end of the table this century for us.

SkyBlueCRJ · Mar 21, 2018

Hadji's_Goatee said:
Actually history suggests

Actually, last season you only needed 78 pts to secure 3rd spot (Luton were 4th on 77).

On average over the last 17 seasons 80pts would be enough to secure 3rd spot. So Otis’s 6 wins from 9 looks about right.

The chances are very high that this will be the most eventful end to the season at the right end of the table this century for us.

Think you'll need to look again...Doncaster who finished 3rd, also finished on 85 points last season.

I'm not disagreeing though, it's more than likely 3rd spot will be secured by 80pts because the league has been so tight over the course of the season, as I previously stated.

6 wins out of 9 could clinch that 3rd spot but the 4 teams that are above us could also match this. It's very much a case of relying on rival teams to slip up rather than looking solely at our own results between now and the end of the season. Hence why we're better to look behind us rather than what's in front given that a point separates a good season from a bad one.

Hadji's_Goatee · Mar 21, 2018

JamesCCFC said:
Think you'll need to look again...Doncaster who finished 3rd, also finished on 85 points last season.

I'm not disagreeing though, it's more than likely 3rd spot will be secured by 80pts because the league has been so tight over the course of the season, as I previously stated.

6 wins out of 9 could clinch that 3rd spot but the 4 teams that are above us could also match this. It's very much a case of relying on rival teams to slip up rather than looking solely at our own results between now and the end of the season. Hence why we're better to look behind us rather than what's in front given that a point separates a good season from a bad one.

Yeah I know they finished on 85pts, but they only needed 78pts to secure 3rd over 4th places Luton in 77pts. I was just correcting your 3 season average which you saw as 85pts to secure 3rd spot, when over the last 3 seasons it has been 83pts. Pinickerty I know, but those points make it more attainable with remaining games to go.

It’s better to measure these things with as much recent data as possible, so everybody who believes around 80 pts for autos is more or less spot on. That’s what we should be aiming for. It’s going to be a fab run in, especially if we can keep the 6 in 9 target alive for as long as possible.

It would also take a monumental cock up in form and Home form for us to not make the playoffs. I can’t see that happening - surely not this time City?

Hadji's_Goatee · Mar 21, 2018

Btw the last 17 season average for making the playoffs is 70pts. So 3 wins out of 9 could do it. 4 more wins for sure. 4 wins and a draw would leave us on 74 pts which is the most needed in the last 17 years to secure a playoff place.

I just think it’s only gonna take a slight uptick in results to push for autos rather than settle for the playoffs.

vow · Mar 21, 2018

Boring I know, but just taking one game at a time.

Sky Blue Harry H · Mar 21, 2018

Hadji's_Goatee said:
Yeah I know they finished on 85pts, but they only needed 78pts to secure 3rd over 4th places Luton in 77pts. I was just correcting your 3 season average which you saw as 85pts to secure 3rd spot, when over the last 3 seasons it has been 83pts. Pinickerty I know, but those points make it more attainable with remaining games to go.

So tempted......:nailbiting:

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