Our Run In (1 Viewer)

Flying Fokker · Jan 17, 2024

The final six look winnable.

I look at our fixtures. Football is greater than the sum of its parts.

20 Jan	A	Sheffield Wednesday	Championship	3pm
Mon 22 Jan	A	Coleshill Town	Birmingham Cup 3	7.45pm
Fri 26 Jan	A	Sheffield Wednesday	FA Cup 4	7.45pm
Tue 30 Jan	H	Bristol City	Championship	7.45pm
Sat 3 Feb	A	Norwich City	Championship	3pm
Sun 11 Feb	H	Millwall	Championship	12pm
Wed 14 Feb	A	Plymouth Argyle	Championship	7.45pm
Sat 17 Feb	A	Stoke City	Championship	3pm
Sat 24 Feb	H	Preston North End	Championship	3pm
Sat 2 Mar	A	West Bromwich Albion	Championship	3pm
Tue 5 Mar	H	Rotherham United	Championship	7.45pm
Sat 9 Mar	A	Watford	Championship	3pm
Sat 16 Mar	H	Hull City	Championship	3pm
Fri 29 Mar	A	Huddersfield Town	Championship	3pm
Mon 1 Apr	H	Cardiff City	Championship	3pm
Sat 6 Apr	H	Leeds United	Championship	3pm
Tue 9 Apr	A	Southampton	Championship	7.45pm
Sat 13 Apr	A	Birmingham City	Championship	3pm
Sat 20 Apr	H	Ipswich Town	Championship	3pm
Sat 27 Apr	A	Blackburn Rovers	Championship	3pm
Sat 4 May	H	Queens Park Rangers	Championship	3pm

Sky Blue Harry H · Jan 17, 2024

Unless Southampton are already up, I think an away victory there is a brave call.

Governmac · Jan 17, 2024

I'd be happy to end on 97 points.

Alkhen · Jan 17, 2024

considering top two is out of the question for us I reckon it could play into our hands. The Ideal world would be one of Southampton Leeds and Ipswich to have pulled miles ahead in 2nd place and be on the beach and the other two to be so comfortably clear in the play-offs to the point they are resting players and playing half pace like Boro last season.

Winny the Bish · Jan 17, 2024

12/19 remaining league games against teams in the bottom half. Encouraging.

Gynnsthetonic · Jan 17, 2024

Can't see us getting anything at Coleshill Town

SkyblueDad · Jan 17, 2024

Alkhen said:
considering top two is out of the question for us I reckon it could play into our hands. The Ideal world would be one of Southampton Leeds and Ipswich to have pulled miles ahead in 2nd place and be on the beach and the other two to be so comfortably clear in the play-offs to the point they are resting players and playing half pace like Boro last season.

No it isn’t we have 19 games left all winnable just one game at a time

Sky Blue Harry H · Jan 17, 2024

I think we'll end up close to last season's total of 72 again

shmmeee · Jan 17, 2024

Three massive games, two tricky away games and QPR. But if we are up there we shouldn’t be scared of any of them.

PVA · Jan 17, 2024

The next 7 league games look very favourable

Flying Fokker · Jan 17, 2024

Sky Blue Harry H said:
I think we'll end up close to last season's total of 72 again

76 needed. Hope I’m wrong.

SkyblueDad · Jan 17, 2024

shmmeee said:
Three massive games, two tricky away games and QPR. But if we are up there we shouldn’t be scared of any of them.

I can assure you they will be very cagey about us

Robinshio · Jan 17, 2024

70 last year 74+ usually guarantees play offs

SkyblueDad · Jan 17, 2024

Governmac said:
I'd be happy to end on 97 points.

Won’t be far off

Razzle Dazzle Dean Gordon · Jan 17, 2024

Sky Blue Harry H said:
I think we'll end up close to last season's total of 72 again

I had us on 77 when i did a quick run through of games. Hopefully thatd be enough and isnt too optimistic.

CBS16 · Jan 17, 2024

Quick realistic count up in my head I think we'll get to 75 points. Barring someone below us going on a mad run I think that could do it

play_in_skyblue_stripes · Jan 17, 2024

Let's not get carried away. Every team has good and poor spells.
Things no doubt are going very well at the moment despite not having dangerous forwards. I would be a lot happier with at least one other option up front, can't keep relying on midfielders and defenders to score.
Last year we had Vik and Gus. We are stronger squad wise but they were phenomenonal in getting to Fifth.

Coventry were very good against Leicester and Leeds away but long way to go yet.

Hobo · Jan 17, 2024

Flying Fokker said:
The final six look winnable.

I look at our fixtures. Football is greater than the sum of its parts.

20 Jan A Sheffield Wednesday Championship 3pm
Mon 22 Jan A Coleshill Town Birmingham Cup 3 7.45pm
Fri 26 Jan A Sheffield Wednesday FA Cup 4 7.45pm
Tue 30 Jan H Bristol City Championship 7.45pm
Sat 3 Feb A Norwich City Championship 3pm
Sun 11 Feb H Millwall

Championship 12pm
Wed 14 Feb A Plymouth Argyle

Championship 7.45pm
Sat 17 Feb A Stoke City Championship 3pm
Sat 24 Feb H Preston North End Championship 3pm
Sat 2 Mar A West Bromwich Albion Championship 3pm
Tue 5 Mar H Rotherham United Championship 7.45pm
Sat 9 Mar A Watford Championship 3pm
Sat 16 Mar H Hull City Championship 3pm
Fri 29 Mar A Huddersfield Town Championship 3pm
Mon 1 Apr H Cardiff City Championship 3pm
Sat 6 Apr H Leeds United Championship 3pm
Tue 9 Apr A Southampton Championship 7.45pm
Sat 13 Apr A Birmingham City Championship 3pm
Sat 20 Apr H Ipswich Town Championship 3pm
Sat 27 Apr A Blackburn Rovers Championship 3pm
Sat 4 May H Queens Park Rangers Championship 3pm

All fixtures are winnable. But we know points get dropped when you expect to win and you can win when you expect to lose

Strangely enough the fixtures are the same as they were at the start of the season. What changes the landscape is form. Which changes week to week. We also know teams at the bottom can start winning in the last six weeks of the season.

Let's just take a game at a time. It is far too early to look at the run in and make predictions

covboy9 · Jan 17, 2024

Just gotta cut the draws out

rob9872 · Jan 17, 2024

Imagine we'll get nothing at Norwich, WBA and Southampton all away. Shouldn't be scared of anyone at home but hopefully turn more draws into wins and we'll have every chance.

Sky Blue Harry H · Jan 17, 2024

rob9872 said:
Imagine we'll get nothing at Norwich, WBA and Southampton all away. Shouldn't be scared of anyone at home but hopefully turn more draws into wins and we'll have every chance.

I've booked on the coach to Norwich Rob, so that's one result you've got wrong !

False9 · Jan 17, 2024

rob9872 said:
Imagine we'll get nothing at Norwich, WBA and Southampton all away.

I understand being cautious but I don't see why we can't get results in any of those games. Perhaps in the past you write those games off but it's different now.

The run in is very nice upto April, should be looking to build a buffer. Although if we get hit by injuries we could easily be derailed.

I'll go for an optimistic 79 points.

Martin180 · Jan 17, 2024

Genuine question who cant we beat from now to the end of the season ? Squad is improving at a rapid rate , morale within the squad is sky high . Take it game by game but we could be right amongst the top four in the division

Happy_Martian · Jan 17, 2024

Posted this in a previous thread. (Must have used same website as FF with the Coleshill game listed)

Think I worked out we'd end on 75 points. Still too early to say if that is enough or not but it should give us a reasonable chance of playoff football again.
Leeds and Southampton both still have most of their Prem squads and are strengthening so I can't see us getting anything from either, home or away. And we always struggle against WBA and Norwich. So 4 defeats out of the last 19 league games.
4 of my chosen 5 draws are away so I'm counting home ground advantage for the opposition. Only Ipswich at home is my other draw.
Every other game is winnable if we play to our best.

Happy_Martian · Jan 17, 2024

Flying Fokker said:
76 needed. Hope I’m wrong.

Bugger, I'm a point out on 75

Happy_Martian · Jan 17, 2024

For those that want to try, The Fishy Website has a fixture calculator.

Championship Calculator

Enter future match predictions and see what the final Championship league table might look like

thefishy.co.uk

Just chose Coventry and let the system work out all the other fixtures. And using my predictions, this is the end result. (don't know how Cov got 2 more points on the predictor than my own calculations)

Playoff semi-finals
Southampton vs West Brom
Leeds vs Coventry

Robinshio · Jan 17, 2024

74 will be more than sufficient with our gd

skyblue025 · Jan 18, 2024

i honestly can't see Ipswich maintaining their 1st 1/2 of the season form. I'd have Leeds and Saints to finish above them. For us 5th or 6th place is definitely achievable.

Astute · Jan 18, 2024

Flying Fokker said:
76 needed. Hope I’m wrong.

Can't see it myself.

The top 6 are all form sides. Only Leicester lost their last game. Only Ipswich scored less than 3 goals.....other than Leicester

7th and downwards are struggling a bit. If results continue as they have been lately the top 6 will soon have a gap. Our closest rivals in the table below us don't even have a striker.

A few sides below have signed players that could change their season. But the new signings would need to hit the ground running and that's easier said than done. They're all on track for 70 points or less.

But anything can still happen. It would be awesome if Ipswich could beat Leicester. The other 4 clubs in the top 6 have very winnable games. If it happens Leicester would have dropped 6 points on the 5 sides below them and their lead would be down to 4 points and 7 points. A big drop from 10 points and 13 points. Wouldn't be surprised if they imploded. They're not happy as it is. World class Leicester losing 2 on the bounce.

Would get the popcorn ready for the post match deluded comments

CJ_covblaze · Jan 18, 2024

Should be worth noting that at this stage last season 6th place had a point more than we do now. This indicates that it could be quite a low total again that gets play offs.

rob9872 · Jan 18, 2024

Astute said:
Can't see it myself.

The top 6 are all form sides. Only Leicester lost their last game. Only Ipswich scored less than 3 goals.....other than Leicester

7th and downwards are struggling a bit. If results continue as they have been lately the top 6 will soon have a gap. Our closest rivals in the table below us don't even have a striker.

A few sides below have signed players that could change their season. But the new signings would need to hit the ground running and that's easier said than done. They're all on track for 70 points or less.

But anything can still happen. It would be awesome if Ipswich could beat Leicester. The other 4 clubs in the top 6 have very winnable games. If it happens Leicester would have dropped 6 points on the 5 sides below them and their lead would be down to 4 points and 7 points. A big drop from 10 points and 13 points. Wouldn't be surprised if they imploded. They're not happy as it is. World class Leicester losing 2 on the bounce.

Would get the popcorn ready for the post match deluded comments

Beat em in the play offs, lovely

Brighton Sky Blue · Jan 18, 2024

If we keep up the form of around 2 points a game we’ve had since going to this system we get 78 points. If it went down to 1.5 we end up on the magic 69.

JSL · Jan 18, 2024

Looking at the table, we have lost a relatively low number of games compared to others but the amount of games drawn is our Achilles heel. If we had won a few of those we would be flying. Not losing games is always a good attribute but we need to stop drawing so many to be in with a chance

Chris1987 · Jan 18, 2024

JSL said:
Looking at the table, we have lost a relatively low number of games compared to others but the amount of games drawn is our Achilles heel. If we had won a few of those we would be flying. Not losing games is always a good attribute but we need to stop drawing so many to be in with a chance

It was the change of formation , the settling in of the many new players and the return of COH 2hich really kick started things. We also went from a side not converting chances to one scoring plenty. The form since that happened is right up there with the best in this league. We have a quality first team and a decent bench which is only going to get stronger with a couple of January additions. I'm confident that we will comfortable make the play offs as those near and around us don't have the depth we have.

Flying Fokker · Jan 18, 2024

How Many Points Do You Need To Make The Championship Play-offs? - The Stats Zone

www.thestatszone.com

Plus:
22-23. / 80, 75, 70, 69
20-21. / 82, 80, 75, 75
21-22. / 87, 80, 78, 77
19-20. / 81, 81, 73, 70.

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