Points Needed For A Top 6 Finish Over The Last 8 Years (1 Viewer)

shoesmith81 · Jan 13, 2013

Hi everyone.

Here are the points that were needed to secure a top 6 finish over the last 8 seasons in League 1.

73
71
80
76
76
75
71
71

The Sky Blues have 19 games to go and are currently on 37 points.

73 points - 36 points 1.89 points per game
71 points - 34 points 1.78 points per game
80 points - 43 points 2.26 points per game
76 points - 39 points 2.05 points per game
75 points - 38 points 2.00 points per game

73 points - 10 wins 6 draws 3 losses
71 points - 10 wins 4 draws 2 losses
80 points - 13 wins 4 draws 2 losses
76 points - 11 wins 6 draws 2 losses
75 points - 11 wins 5 draws 3 losses
75 points - 10 wins 5 draws 3 losses

Can you guys see us pull off this kind of form?

Over the season so far we have averaged 1.37 points per game.

Interested to hear your thoughts?

Cheers Rob

BackRoomRummermill · Jan 13, 2013

shoesmith81 said:
Hi everyone.

Here are the points that were needed to secure a top 6 finish over the last 8 seasons in League 1.

73
71
80
76
76
75
71
71

The Sky Blues have 19 games to go and are currently on 37 points.

73 points - 36 points 1.89 points per game
71 points - 34 points 1.78 points per game
80 points - 43 points 2.26 points per game
76 points - 39 points 2.05 points per game
75 points - 38 points 2.00 points per game

73 points - 10 wins 6 draws 3 losses
71 points - 10 wins 4 draws 2 losses
80 points - 13 wins 4 draws 2 losses
76 points - 11 wins 6 draws 2 losses
75 points - 11 wins 5 draws 3 losses
75 points - 10 wins 5 draws 3 losses

Can you guys see us pull off this kind of form?

Over the season so far we have averaged 1.37 points per game.

Interested to hear your thoughts?

Cheers Rob

Recalculate since MR has took over then post your results

Otis · Jan 13, 2013

Yep, need 73 I would say at least.

We have 37 points from 27 games.

We therefore need 36 points from 19 games. 10 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats.

Massive ask. All we can do is to try and win as many as we can.

Sutty · Jan 13, 2013

BackRoomRummermill said:
Recalculate since MR has took over then post your results

I don't think you understand the stats he's posted.

WeWillBeBack · Jan 13, 2013

BackRoomRummermill said:
Recalculate since MR has took over then post your results

Yeah, maybe if we write a heartfelt letter to the FL they might just give us 3 points for the games AT was incharge for

psgm1 · Jan 13, 2013

BackRoomRummermill said:
Recalculate since MR has took over then post your results

More like recalculate since DM has left!

Last season, the lowest points to avoid relegation was 50. Before that 48, and before that 50.

Now we know the reason why scunny didn't bother signing clarke even after scoring 11 goals!

As I said, he hasn't scored in the leage since Nov 20!

Clarke was always going to be a gamble, and it looks like it may well not pay off!

So we hae to rely on the goals from the rest of cov's strikeforce.

1 point/ game may well be a tough ask

shoesmith81 · Jan 13, 2013

Under Robins we have 35 points from 21 games in the league. Based on that we would get around 32 points. Total 69. So would need the same again and maybe a could more wins.

SkyBlue_Bear83 · Jan 13, 2013

I reckon we will need 75 to have a chance

TheParsonsHose · Jan 13, 2013

shoesmith81 said:
Hi everyone.

Here are the points that were needed to secure a top 6 finish over the last 8 seasons in League 1.

73
71
80
76
76
75
71
71

The Sky Blues have 19 games to go and are currently on 37 points.

73 points - 36 points 1.89 points per game
71 points - 34 points 1.78 points per game
80 points - 43 points 2.26 points per game
76 points - 39 points 2.05 points per game
75 points - 38 points 2.00 points per game

73 points - 10 wins 6 draws 3 losses
71 points - 10 wins 4 draws 2 losses
80 points - 13 wins 4 draws 2 losses
76 points - 11 wins 6 draws 2 losses
75 points - 11 wins 5 draws 3 losses
75 points - 10 wins 5 draws 3 losses

Can you guys see us pull off this kind of form?

Over the season so far we have averaged 1.37 points per game.

Interested to hear your thoughts?

Cheers Rob

Taking into account your stats I think Robins is capable of 1.8 points per game if we kept our form. This will largley depend now on the goals flowing like they did peior to DMK leaving but the next 2 or 3 games will give us an idea as to how the season will shape up. We have to lose some but surely we all expect to beat Carlisle away!!!

Stevec189 · Jan 13, 2013

psgm1 said:
More like recalculate since DM has left!

Last season, the lowest points to avoid relegation was 50. Before that 48, and before that 50.

Now we know the reason why scunny didn't bother signing clarke even after scoring 11 goals!

As I said, he hasn't scored in the leage since Nov 20!

Clarke was always going to be a gamble, and it looks like it may well not pay off!

So we hae to rely on the goals from the rest of cov's strikeforce.

1 point/ game may well be a tough ask

Scunny never signed Clarke for the same reason we never signed McGoldrick. We couldn't afford him! Hasn't scored since Nov since hasn't been playing. Try supporting the team instead of slagging them off all the time. Clarke will at least equal his tally at Scunthorpe if not beat it.

The playoffs will be a big ask but not due to Clarke more due to the first 10 games.

I still believe! PUSB

deanocity3 · Jan 13, 2013

that may be the case,I think sheff utd got 90 points and still never went up,what is the average to go up automaticaly

shoesmith81 · Jan 13, 2013

Clark has only played 2 full games (1 sub appearance) for us and has scored a goal. A goal every other game is not bad at all. He is new to the team. I think we shouldn't judge him until after he has played 5 games for us.

I think SE will get a chance up front at some point.

I think we will finish around 10th and be much better equipped next season. Most teams who go down from the championship get promoted within 2 seasons normally.

After the start we had a tenth place finish and a trip to Wembley would make pretty happy and optimistic for next season.

shoesmith81 · Jan 13, 2013

deanocity3 said:
that may be the case,I think sheff utd got 90 points and still never went up,what is the average to go up automaticaly

Let me check

CJparker · Jan 13, 2013

psgm1;338918 Last season said:
A bit to oearly to be writing off Clarke surely! Give th bloke a chance, he's only started a couple of games...

I think the play-offs will be a massive ask - I can see us finishing 8th, which will be a respectable finish given the off-field turmoil this season. Even last summer, I said anywhere between 8th-12th would be a reasonable finish.

A lot of the posts on here are predicated on "if MR keeps up his food form..." but, while we have improved, his great away run is probably a bit of a statistical anamoly, and the 'reversion to the mean' over the rest of the season will probably see us coming short of the points/game percentage he has produced up to now. The Shrewsbury and Carlisle results may even be the start of this process.

shoesmith81 · Jan 13, 2013

Ok to finish in the top 2 here are the points that were needed over the last 8 years.

93
92
86
89
82
85
79
86

The bar seems to have gone up a notch. I'd say 90 points would be needed so this would equate to at least 53 points from 19 games which is 2.7 points a game which isn't going to happen I'm afraid guys! I'd streak in broadgate if we did!

WeWillBeBack · Jan 13, 2013

we will lose atleast 5 games in the league over the next 4 1/2 months

deanocity3 · Jan 13, 2013

And I ride around naked on Broadgate on horseback too

Grendel · Jan 13, 2013

psgm1 said:
More like recalculate since DM has left!

Last season, the lowest points to avoid relegation was 50. Before that 48, and before that 50.

Now we know the reason why scunny didn't bother signing clarke even after scoring 11 goals!

As I said, he hasn't scored in the leage since Nov 20!

Clarke was always going to be a gamble, and it looks like it may well not pay off!

So we hae to rely on the goals from the rest of cov's strikeforce.

1 point/ game may well be a tough ask

Are you completely stupid? Time and time again you have been told he has not played since November. Please explain why you ignore this fact.

Tonylinc · Jan 13, 2013

deanocity3 said:
And I ride around naked on Broadgate on horseback too

And for that reason alone I'm Out!

oldskyblue58 · Jan 14, 2013

CCFC current record won 10 drawn 7 lost 10 = 37 points. 27 games

you can make statistics say what you want and tie your self up in them ...... this is just a few

Play off place probably requires 75 points - over the last 10 seasons I think it averages out at around that. The lowest required has been 71 and the most 80 points. We need probably at least 38 points from 57 to sneak into the top 6

Over the last 10 seasons the highest number of losses but still got in top 6 is 17 but on avearge it works out at 13. We have already lost 10

Lowest number of wins but still in top 6 over the last 10 seasons is 18 but the average is 20. We have won 10

If 75 points are required then we need 38 from 57 or a 66.6% return. Mk Dons (6th) or Bournemouth (7th) need 32 points or a 53.3% return.

Like i said you can make stats say what you want. I think top 6 is a very tall order in a division that is very competitive where any one in the top 15 or 16 clubs has a chance but realistically the current top 6 or 7 have the edge at the moment. Not saying we cant do it but there is no margin for error. It appears (based on last 10 seasons average) we need at least 10 more wins and can probably only afford to lose 3 more games tops.

We are not out of it but it gets harder every time we drop points.

sorry for stating what seems to be the obvious :laugh:

dongonzalos · Jan 14, 2013

Tonylinc said:
And for that reason alone I'm Out!

Brilliant ........,

covcity4life · Jan 14, 2013

beating tranmere is the first step!!!!!!!!

Sky Blues · Jan 14, 2013

I'm not sure I dare call your maths into question OSB, but you say to meet the usual averages we need 38 more points and 10 more wins and can lose no more than 3 times. To achieve 38 points with 10 more wins we'd need to draw 8 games. There are 19 left, leaving just one defeat available. Of course if we get 11 wins and 5 draws we can take 3 defeats. (Or 5 defeats with 12 wins and 2 draws).

oldskyblue58 · Jan 14, 2013

Sky Blues said:
I'm not sure I dare call your maths into question OSB, but you say to meet the usual averages we need 38 more points and 10 more wins and can lose no more than 3 times. To achieve 38 points with 10 more wins we'd need to draw 8 games. There are 19 left, leaving just one defeat available. Of course if we get 11 wins and 5 draws we can take 3 defeats. (Or 5 defeats with 12 wins and 2 draws).

thats why i said at least 10 wins and lose 3 tops ........ wasnt trying to add the points up as such more indicating minimum wins and probable max losses ..... and yep i wouldnt disagree with you maths , there are quite a few permutations

Godiva · Jan 14, 2013

deanocity3 said:
And I ride around naked on Broadgate on horseback too

No, that's my job!

Sky Blues · Jan 14, 2013

oldskyblue58 said:
thats why i said at least 10 wins and lose 3 tops ........ wasnt trying to add the points up as such more indicating minimum wins and probable max losses ..... and yep i wouldnt disagree with you maths , there are quite a few permutations

Aye and the stats clearly suggests that whichever way you cut it we really need to win more than half our remaining games to realistically remain in the hunt.

The good news is that, by my reckoning, the team's win ratio under Mark Robins is 50% - which is just about there for giving us 10 wins if maintained for the rest of the season. Slightly more worryingly, the defeat ratio is 30%, which works out at about 5 or 6 defeats. As we have scored at least one goal in 90% of our games under Robins, but failed to stop the opposition scoring in 80% of our league games in the same period, I'd suggest that if we can tighten up at the back maybe we can turn a few of those defeats into the draws or wins that might see us into the play-offs.

ashbyjan · Jan 14, 2013

In my opinion we have at best a slim chance of making playoffs but whilst there is hope we need to give Robins and the team 100% support. We shouldn't write off our chances until it is mathematically impossible - there are no outstanding teams in this division so there are plenty of points to be picked up so its always possible just not probable.

SkyBlueBlood · Jan 14, 2013

It's not about how many points in previous seasons its about how many this season.

The question needs to be can we drop 7 less points than those above (possibly more if you allow for games in hand) from now till April?

I have no doubt that we can beat any team in this league home or away so in my view we can, but we have to get back on a long undefeated run and quickly.

skyblueinBaku · Jan 14, 2013

Grendel said:
Are you completely stupid? Time and time again you have been told he has not played since November. Please explain why you ignore this fact.

Judging by his posts both here and in the CT, the answer to your question is undoubtedly 'yes'.

Houchens Head · Jan 14, 2013

Hmmmmm..... lemme see....... :thinking about:
Think of a number.....
Multiply by 5½
Divide by 7.9
Add 33 to the first number you thought of.
Use the calculation ∏r2
Take away the first number you thought of.
Calculate the average times a cat catches mice in a week and multiply this by 17.
There you go! We're goin' up!

lordsummerisle · Jan 14, 2013

Houchens Head said:
Hmmmmm..... lemme see....... :thinking about:
Think of a number.....
Multiply by 5½
Divide by 7.9
Add 33 to the first number you thought of.
Use the calculation ∏r2
Take away the first number you thought of.
Calculate the average times a cat catches mice in a week and multiply this by 17.
There you go! We're goin' up!

Isn't that the new formula to work out the "simplified" State Pension?

oldskyblue58 · Jan 14, 2013

lordsummerisle said:
Isn't that the new formula to work out the "simplified" State Pension?

they made it that easy ?

Paxman II · Jan 14, 2013

I actually believe that everyone assumes too much of other teams. It's the hard and difficult part of the season now and injuries and suspensions will play a large part in teams performances. Some of those above us now I can almost guarantee will be below us when the reckoning is done. We will do better than most from here on in I suspect. Plenty of sliders in those above us! It's not all about what we do but what they don't do!
So much football to be played yet...

dongonzalos · Jan 14, 2013

oldskyblue58 said:
they made it that easy ?

They are the wizards of smoke screens and deception.

35 is the only number relevant in that farce

oldskyblue58 · Jan 14, 2013

I thought that 42 was The Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything

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