Points targets (1 Viewer)

skybluesam66 · Feb 10, 2020

I think it will be a low target for autos v previous years, but high for Play offs

I think 84 points should guarantee autos and 74 for play offs

16 games to go means

Autos W10 D 3 L 3
Play offs W 6 D 5 L 5

It would be a massive fail, if we cannot pick up enough points for the play offs based on that
Autos will be a bigger challenge, but still possible

Sky Blue Pete · Feb 10, 2020

Especially when 2 games ago it would have been 14 wins and we’ve already got two of them

skybluesam66 said:
I think it will be a low target for autos v previous years, but high for Play offs

I think 84 points should guarantee autos and 74 for play offs

16 games to go means

Autos W10 D 3 L 3
Play offs W 6 D 5 L 5

It would be a massive fail, if we cannot pick up enough points for the play offs based on that
Autos will be a bigger challenge, but still possible

Liquid Gold · Feb 10, 2020

based on the PPG of last season we would need 85 as it is a 44 game season. I suspect it will be a bit lower this season and we're more than capable of doing it.

Liquid Gold · Feb 10, 2020

Liquid Gold said:
Last season we picked up 65 points at an average of 1.41 per game. So far this year we're picking up 1.78 per game.

To finish 2nd last year you would have needed 89 points (Barnsley got 91 but still would have gone up with two fewer), that works out at 1.93ppg. If we take it that this will be the same this year (although I expect it will be lower) then the total points needed over a 44 game season would be 85.

If we were to revert back to last season's average from here then we'd finish with 72 points which is way short and would even have resulted in us missing out on playoffs. Maintain the form that we've had over the course of this season and we're looking at 78 which is bringing us much closer to the required total while still falling short.

However, if you take this date last year and calculate the games played afterwards we start to average 1.53ppg an improvement of 0.12 over the season average and a much bigger upturn of 0.18 of the 1.35ppg from the season so far. During that period we played 6 of the top 7 away from home.

This season if we can maintain the same upturn as last in what is widely regarded as a weaker division and with our more difficult games at home then we will finish the season with 1.96ppg or 86 points.

Lads, it's on.

This is what I came up with the other evening.

clint van damme · Feb 10, 2020

winning the league might be a bit of a stretch now but 2nd place is very doable.

Only Rotherham have a better points per game than us.

Evo1883 · Feb 10, 2020

83 and we're up imo

Liquid Gold · Feb 10, 2020

Evo1883 said:
83 and we're up imo

I'd agree with that.

ccfcway · Feb 10, 2020

W9 D 6 L 1 gets us to 83. certainly not easy, but on current form (our last 12 games)

W7 D4 L1.....every chance...

Win the next 2 games and those stats will look very possible

robbiekeane · Feb 10, 2020

Just keep doing what we're doing

robbiekeane · Feb 10, 2020

robbiekeane said:
Just keep doing what we're doing

View attachment 14104

Tomorrow is a huge huge game

covcity4life · Feb 10, 2020

clint van damme said:
winning the league might be a bit of a stretch now but 2nd place is very doable.

Only Rotherham have a better points per game than us.

Lol what

1st stretch
2nd doable?

Theres not a massive pts gap between them!

Liquid Gold · Feb 10, 2020

robbiekeane said:
Tomorrow is a huge huge game

The huge game klaxon is just blowing non stop now.

robbiekeane · Feb 10, 2020

Liquid Gold said:
The huge game klaxon is just blowing non stop now.

Haha I know mate I hate saying it but it feels like every game really is now! 6 pointer though just to throw another cliche out there

ccfcricoh · Feb 10, 2020

Games left:

Pompy
Southend
Rochdale
Rotheram
Sunderland
Ipswich
Shrewsbury
Lincoln
Wycombe
Accrington
Peterborough
Gills
Oxford
Blackpool
Burton
Wimbledon

Those in bold are all in bottom half and you have to say are winnable (8 games). Obviously a massive "if" but that would leave us on 75 points (play offs) if we won them all, then only needing maybe 3 wins from the "tougher" 8 games.

The way we are going at the minute, 84 points is achievable, i just hope we're still on track after the Ipswich game!

clint van damme · Feb 10, 2020

covcity4life said:
Lol what

1st stretch
2nd doable?

Theres not a massive pts gap between them!

No. Just feel Rotherham have been over course and distance before and will probably top the league.
Far from guaranteed right enough.

Liquid Gold · Feb 10, 2020

ccfcricoh said:
Games left:

Pompy
Southend
Rochdale
Rotheram
Sunderland
Ipswich
Shrewsbury
Lincoln
Wycombe
Accrington
Peterborough
Gills
Oxford
Blackpool
Burton
Wimbledon

Those in bold are all in bottom half and you have to say are winnable (8 games). Obviously a massive "if" but that would leave us on 75 points (play offs) if we won them all, then only needing maybe 3 wins from the "tougher" 8 games.

The way we are going at the minute, 84 points is achievable, i just hope we're still on track after the Ipswich game!

So many of the 'easier' ones away from home though.

covcity4life · Feb 10, 2020

clint van damme said:
No. Just feel Rotherham have been over course and distance before and will probably top the league.
Far from guaranteed right enough.

Yeh they prob will win league but i jist dont think it van be labelled a stretch thats all

Saying that i would still take a point tmrw and be over the moon with it

clint van damme · Feb 10, 2020

ccfcricoh said:
Games left:

Pompy
Southend
Rochdale
Rotheram
Sunderland
Ipswich
Shrewsbury
Lincoln
Wycombe
Accrington
Peterborough
Gills
Oxford
Blackpool
Burton
Wimbledon

Those in bold are all in bottom half and you have to say are winnable (8 games). Obviously a massive "if" but that would leave us on 75 points (play offs) if we won them all, then only needing maybe 3 wins from the "tougher" 8 games.

The way we are going at the minute, 84 points is achievable, i just hope we're still on track after the Ipswich game!

We've played 12 games against the rest of the teams in the current tip 10.
W2 D9 L1
Think if we replicate similar form in our remaining games against them it will be fine as long as we win the games we should win against lower half teams.

ccfchoi87 · Feb 10, 2020

covcity4life said:
Yeh they prob will win league but i jist dont think it van be labelled a stretch thats all

Saying that i would still take a point tmrw and be over the moon with it

That doesn’t sound like your usual confidence CC4L. You’ve made me more nervous now

ccfcricoh · Feb 10, 2020

Liquid Gold said:
So many of the 'easier' ones away from home though.

Did think that as i was typing it, but our away form recently is much better than home so i ignored it and went with the "fuck it were going up" approach

covcity4life · Feb 10, 2020

ccfchoi87 said:
That doesn’t sound like your usual confidence CC4L. You’ve made me more nervous now

Pompey on form. 9 in a row. We maybe due a loss. Maybe even over achieving considering pre season predictions

Toughest game of seasin for me. More must not lose rather than must win

Liquid Gold · Feb 10, 2020

clint van damme said:
We've played 12 games against the rest of the teams in the current tip 10.
W2 D9 L1
Think if we replicate similar form in our remaining games against them it will be fine as long as we win the games we should win against lower half teams.

in the opposite vein to my previous post, those games were away from home though so we should be looking to improve upon those results.

clint van damme · Feb 10, 2020

Liquid Gold said:
in the opposite vein to my previous post, those games were away from home though so we should be looking to improve upon those results.

well hopefully we will improve on them and if we do we'll be absolutely flying but it won't be the end of the world if we don't .

nicksig · Feb 10, 2020

Rotheram
Sunderland
Ipswich

those 3 games are the key for me

Liquid Gold · Feb 10, 2020

Pompy - 0
Southend - 3
Rochdale - 1
Rotheram - 1
Sunderland - 0
Ipswich - 1
Shrewsbury - 3
Lincoln - 1
Wycombe - 3
Accrington - 3
Peterborough - 0
Gills - 3
Oxford - 1
Blackpool - 1
Burton - 3
Wimbledon - 3

The pessimistic side of me would say this which still puts us on 78 so a couple more wins would do it.

ccfcricoh · Feb 10, 2020

Liquid Gold said:
Pompy - 0
Southend - 3
Rochdale - 1
Rotheram - 1
Sunderland - 0
Ipswich - 1
Shrewsbury - 3
Lincoln - 1
Wycombe - 3
Accrington - 3
Peterborough - 0
Gills - 3
Oxford - 1
Blackpool - 1
Burton - 3
Wimbledon - 3

The pessimistic side of me would say this which still puts us on 78 so a couple more wins would do it.

This is bang on... you've got to hope we can "fluke" an extra 6 points somewhere in there. Starting with 3 tomorrow please.

covcity4life · Feb 10, 2020

Just did the gut feeling test on remaining fixtures

Had us gwt 11 wins 3 draws and 2 losses

NortonSkyBlue · Feb 10, 2020

I've got a gut feeling that if we get more points than the team in third we will go up automatically and if we don't then it's doom and gloom.

steve cooper · Feb 10, 2020

Liquid Gold said:
Pompy - 0
Southend - 3
Rochdale - 1
Rotheram - 1
Sunderland - 0
Ipswich - 1
Shrewsbury - 3
Lincoln - 1
Wycombe - 3
Accrington - 3
Peterborough - 0
Gills - 3
Oxford - 1
Blackpool - 1
Burton - 3
Wimbledon - 3

The pessimistic side of me would say this which still puts us on 78 so a couple more wins would do it.

Portsmouth, Sunderland, Peterborough, Oxford are all at home, you really think we are only likely to take 1 point from those 4 games? That is pessimistic

steve cooper · Feb 10, 2020

Pompy (no prediction - too nervous)
Southend 3
Rochdale 3
Rotherham 0
Sunderland 3
Ipswich 1
Shrewsbury 1
Lincoln 3
Wycombe 3
Accrington 1
Peterborough 3
Gills 1
Oxford 1
Blackpool 3
Burton 3
Wimbledon 3
32 points + whatever we can get tomorrow. Would give us 83+

SkyBlueCRJ · Feb 10, 2020

Liquid Gold said:
Pompy - 0
Southend - 3
Rochdale - 1
Rotheram - 1
Sunderland - 0
Ipswich - 1
Shrewsbury - 3
Lincoln - 1
Wycombe - 3
Accrington - 3
Peterborough - 0
Gills - 3
Oxford - 1
Blackpool - 1
Burton - 3
Wimbledon - 3

The pessimistic side of me would say this which still puts us on 78 so a couple more wins would do it.

Lincoln are in free-fall at the minute and genuinely looked a poor side when we played them before Christmas. I'd back us to take all 3 points there fairly comfortably. Rochdale result could be 50/50 as we often struggle against sides just on the cusp of relegation. If we're on our game I'd predict a hard fought 2-1. Pretty much agree with the rest.

fellatio_Martinez · Feb 10, 2020

I honestly don't see the point in digging down this deep into stats.

It's like trying to predict the weather. There's too many variables at play.

cc84cov · Feb 10, 2020

Rotherham
Sunderland
Ipswich

these will be crucial although looking at it the run is isn’t bad at al for us.

Ring Of Steel · Feb 10, 2020

I get very uncomfortable with these sorts of things, the only points target I have is 3 tomorrow. And then 3 after that. Keep that up and everything else is pretty immaterial.

cc84cov · Feb 10, 2020

If we have the last home game to clinch promotion I wonder if all the “away games” only fans will turn up

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