Relegation thread (2 Viewers)

trevelfarandwide · Jan 15, 2017

Wheelfass said:
Yes I agree with you on all of your points especially about the signings being unlikely. Even if those types of players were available - and why would players with those qualities be available - would they really choose to play for us given our recent history and position. I would have thought that the only players available would be younger players needing to gain experience. A dog fight at the foot of the 3rd tier of English football where rolled up sleeves, fire and aggression count above all else would'nt necessarily be the place for them.

I wonder if or when he realises the depth of despear that has been imposed on both the club and its supporters by the owners and when reality dawns on him of the constraints that he has to work within.......if he'll actually stay until the end of the campaign?

Agreed, and considering that the current squad has as much grit, fire and aggression as Bambi and her fluffy forest friends, we're looking at a very depressing few months to come; even with additions, are these additions going to be game-changers? I doubt it.
The detritus we're in falls at the door of Mowbray and Venus, because their signings were weak, ineffective and poorly scouted. I have little respect for Mowbray, since he bailed on his without even attempting to rectify his mistakes with hard work; he's a bottler, that much is clear.

As the games come and go, Slade is probably scratching his head and wondering why Fisher's promises aren't transpiring...I think you're right, Slade may walk before the end of the season.

lifeskyblue · Jan 15, 2017

I don't believe the managers of the last 6 or 7 seasons are to blame (possible exception of Venus) for where we are today. Certainly Mowbray, Presley and robins had good/great spells before it started to go wrong. This season the players are just not good enough for a relegation scrap in league one. It's the core of the club that is rotten...owners, lawsuits, no ground, council and owners don't trust each other, a better run rugby club stealing a march on us. Our fans are in the main knowledgable, passionate and loyal but I do sense that there is beginning to be a shift against the club (not the players or manager) and I fear that next season, if we do go down, that we will be playing in front of 5,000 max.

PUSB
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oucho · Jan 15, 2017

Given how we pushed P'boro and particularly Bolton at home, we need to target the Fleetwood game as one we can definitely win. (takes a step back for a moment, remembering where we were 20 years ago, and shudders at the thought of optimistically saying we can been Fleetwood - where were they 20 years ago???).

Meanwhile an even bigger deal on the horizon is the "high noon" at Sixfields a week on Saturday. That one is an absolute MUST WIN. How fitting it would be for our owners if we take a pasting there. Everything depends on other results but I personally if we don't win either of the next two games then I will move from the "we're in the shit" camp to "fuck, we've down" camp.

Paxman II · Jan 15, 2017

We must be among the worst pessimist in football. Coventry seems to breed pessimism. I good result yesterday and this board would have had a different feel about it.
We have a game in hand and we have shown much improvement under Slade already with last gasp goals denying us wins twice against good sides. A cup win at a canter followed by a narrow loss, after scoring and being denied a perfectly good goal.
So are we as bad as everyone is suggesting? The answer is no we are not, just poor yesterday and unlucky again (had that offside goal been allowed a different conclusion might have been more likely)
The table looks bad but there is no suggestion teams around us can put any winning runs together and we have (on paper at least which I've said before) a better looking fixture list going forward bar the odd one.
Slade is expecting more players in early this week which will bolster the team and confidence and we have another full week for him to work on the training ground.
Much of the blame rest with TM and MV who had a nightmare recruitment process in the close season, but I think we will be fine and pick up the wins we need and pull away from the bottom. Always an optimist, I don't except yet we are anywhere near doomed as many on here want to believe.

trevelfarandwide · Jan 15, 2017

Paxman II said:
We must be among the worst pessimist in football. Coventry seems to breed pessimism. I good result yesterday and this board would have had a different feel about it.
We have a game in hand and we have shown much improvement under Slade already with last gasp goals denying us wins twice against good sides. A cup win at a canter followed by a narrow loss, after scoring and being denied a perfectly good goal.
So are we as bad as everyone is suggesting? The answer is no we are not, just poor yesterday and unlucky again (had that offside goal been allowed a different conclusion might have been more likely)
The table looks bad but there is no suggestion teams around us can put any winning runs together and we have (on paper at least which I've said before) a better looking fixture list going forward bar the odd one.
Slade is expecting more players in early this week which will bolster the team and confidence and we have another full week for him to work on the training ground.
Much of the blame rest with TM and MV who had a nightmare recruitment process in the close season, but I think we will be fine and pick up the wins we need and pull away from the bottom. Always an optimist, I don't except yet we are anywhere near doomed as many on here want to believe.

Pretty much my sentiments, earlier. I don't proliferate pessimism myself, however, I prefer to be realistic - either statistically or on paper, things look bleak for us.

I will say, though, a good result yesterday would indeed have made us more positive: more points, not bottom, and a boost in confidence for the players. This didn't happen, so reality is all we're left with, unfortunately.

wingy · Jan 15, 2017

Paxman II said:
We must be among the worst pessimist in football. Coventry seems to breed pessimism. I good result yesterday and this board would have had a different feel about it.
We have a game in hand and we have shown much improvement under Slade already with last gasp goals denying us wins twice against good sides. A cup win at a canter followed by a narrow loss, after scoring and being denied a perfectly good goal.
So are we as bad as everyone is suggesting? The answer is no we are not, just poor yesterday and unlucky again (had that offside goal been allowed a different conclusion might have been more likely)
The table looks bad but there is no suggestion teams around us can put any winning runs together and we have (on paper at least which I've said before) a better looking fixture list going forward bar the odd one.
Slade is expecting more players in early this week which will bolster the team and confidence and we have another full week for him to work on the training ground.
Much of the blame rest with TM and MV who had a nightmare recruitment process in the close season, but I think we will be fine and pick up the wins we need and pull away from the bottom. Always an optimist, I don't except yet we are anywhere near doomed as many on here want to believe.

Narrowly failing to get results against the top three gives me encouragement.

COVKIDSNEVERQUIT · Jan 15, 2017

Captain Dart said:
Are you suggesting we should we bring in the messiah?

The Messiah or God himself can not save us . :wacky:

davebart · Jan 15, 2017

My expectation is that the players brought in will be only as good as or marginally better than those that have got us in this position.

The bottom line is - do SISU want to stay up or not. If they do we will see a quality striker arrive. (For this level)
If not they will expect Slade to achieve different outcomes with the same resources. Just as every other manager has been expected to do.

Monners · Jan 15, 2017

Paxman. We had a bad result yesterday - we lost. We are bottom and stats point towards relegation. This is not pessimism but realism.

Sky Blue Pete · Jan 16, 2017

I can't see us getting out of it this year

Ranjit Bhurpa · Jan 16, 2017

Paxman II said:
We must be among the worst pessimist in football. Coventry seems to breed pessimism. I good result yesterday and this board would have had a different feel about it.
We have a game in hand and we have shown much improvement under Slade already with last gasp goals denying us wins twice against good sides. A cup win at a canter followed by a narrow loss, after scoring and being denied a perfectly good goal.
So are we as bad as everyone is suggesting? The answer is no we are not, just poor yesterday and unlucky again (had that offside goal been allowed a different conclusion might have been more likely)
The table looks bad but there is no suggestion teams around us can put any winning runs together and we have (on paper at least which I've said before) a better looking fixture list going forward bar the odd one.
Slade is expecting more players in early this week which will bolster the team and confidence and we have another full week for him to work on the training ground.
Much of the blame rest with TM and MV who had a nightmare recruitment process in the close season, but I think we will be fine and pick up the wins we need and pull away from the bottom. Always an optimist, I don't except yet we are anywhere near doomed as many on here want to believe.

Agree with this and would add that we are also the worst optimists in football as well. In little more than a week, we have gone from hailing Slade as some sort of Messiah and giving him until the end of January, to talk of possible relegation. Like you said, a win against Chesterfield and no doubt some would have been talking of the play offs. Following the game, I see there have been references to us winning only 4 out of the last 26, but I don't recall anyone mentioning 4 out of 25 before the game.

Gosford Green · Jan 16, 2017

If we win 2 games on the bounce its the play offs then after 3 back to back defeats it is back to pretty much were we are at now. Not sure if other teams fans are like this, I have stared to feel sorry for the glass half full faction in our fan base as they are constantly proved wrong and the naysayers or realists as I like to call it are often correct.

With the exception of one of two slightly over exited fans Slade was not seen as a messiah as mentioned above, he has not even had the new manager dead cat bounce which is the reason I genuinely believe we will be relegated. I so want to be wrong this time.

shelby76 · Jan 16, 2017

Think we can only judge slade when he has all his people backroom staff in place if he does not get that then it will be touch and go. Dont think he will because he is only contracted till end of the season.

Hugh Jarse · Jan 16, 2017

Thank god no-one is saying we are too big a club to be in division 2.

I work with an Oldham fan and the only fun I'm getting from being a CCFC fan at the moment is the banter between the two of us as to who is the worst team in Division 1. I hope we do escape relegation but all the signs are there that Division 2 is calling us. Whatever happens, something needs to happen at the club.....and soon!

shmmeee · Jan 16, 2017

Little more optimistic than I was immediately after the game. Let's see where we are mid Feb then we can resume gnashing of teeth if appropriate. Were CCFC, avoiding relegation is what we do.

Otis · Jan 22, 2017

Maybe worth a little bump.

davebart · Jan 22, 2017

As I point out on another thread we need to do exactly as well as Fleetwood have done for the season up until now to accrue enough points to achieve safety. That is play off form. pure and simple.

rupert_bear · Jan 22, 2017

In this league it is possible for any team top to bottom to string 3,4,5, wins together but we have no strikers consequently we score no goals provern by the fact Jordan Willis a centre back come occasional full back with 3 goals is our leading scorer, drastic surgery is vital THIS WEEK to have a chance, I don't believe Fisher will allow that

SkyblueBazza · Jan 22, 2017

davebart said:
As I point out on another thread we need to do exactly as well as Fleetwood have done for the season up until now to accrue enough points to achieve safety. That is play off form. pure and simple.

I haven't gone into your figures...but how I see it is that so long as we can win two & draw one more than the 5 teams above us between now & the end of the season...we should be safe. We only need play-off form if those 5 are delivering play-off form in the first place. Teams down the bottom end rarely do that.

...onwards & upwards PUSB

davebart · Jan 22, 2017

Yes of course the other teams are shit as well and 50 points may not be necessary. But it generally is.

ceetee · Jan 22, 2017

Many things are possible, and we shouldn't stop hoping or give up, but realistically we now have to win half of our remaining games.
Yes we could, and we have lost points by small margins lately, but I just can't see us raising our game enough to score the goals needed. It's not just having goal scoring strikers; you have to have midfield creators as well.

oucho · Jan 22, 2017

Morning - a bit of depressing maths/stats for you all.

If we take the 50 point mark as a survival target, we have got 19 remaining games to get there from our current 21 points.

To get 29 points over 19 games means winning points now at a rate of 1.52 points per game from here on (incidentally,such a rate over the course of the season would have taken us to 70 points which last season would have been good enough for 8th in the league in the final standings).

So far this season we have got 21 points from 27 games = 0.77 points per game. That means that to get to the required 1.52 PPG, we need to immediately and consistently double our points per game ration between now and the last game of the season (0.77 x 2 = 1.54). As tall orders go, that's Richard Keil (Jaws from James Bond).

As if that isn't bad enough, to get those 29 points we'll probably need 8 wins (8 x 3 = 24) plus 5 draws (5 +24 = 29, 29 + current 21 = 50). Winning only 7 of the remaining games gives us 21 points and would need us to get 8 draws (3 x 7 = 21, + 8 = 29), which means we'd only be able to afford to lose 4 of the remaining 19 games. So let's take the 8 wins and 5 draws model:

8 wins is double our total of wins in the season so far (27 games), which has seen us with a games/win ratio of 14.8% so far this season. To get 8 wins from 19 games is a games/win ratio of 42% - so, in other words, we'd need to increase the rate at which we win our games by nearly x 3 in the rest of the season, compared with the season so far. Yes, an effective striker could change a lot over a relatively short space of time, but it does indeed sound like a long shot.

I reflected on this last night, boring the missus to death for about an hour as she tried to go to sleep, and I came to the conclusion I have left camp "we're in the brown stuff but we'll be OK" and instead joined camp "we're gonna go down, barring a near-miracle".

Hugh Jarse · Jan 22, 2017

Is Oucho, Stato in disguise?

davebart · Jan 22, 2017

I feel sorry for his wife.

rd45 · Jan 22, 2017

davebart said:
I feel sorry for his wife.

I feel sorry for all of us. We're fucked.

sky_blue_up_north · Jan 23, 2017

Cannot see anything to save us. We need a promotion style last half of the season. The fact we can't score can't defend tells you everything

robbiekeane · Jan 23, 2017

sky_blue_up_north said:
Cannot see anything to save us. We need a promotion style last half of the season. The fact we can't score can't defend tells you everything

Vernam knows where the net is

stupot07 · Jan 23, 2017

robbiekeane said:
Vernam knows where the net is

In under 23s football. Could be the next Armstrong but equally be the next Callum Ball.

Only time will tell.

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covcity4life · Jan 23, 2017

stupot07 said:
In under 23s football. Could be the next Armstrong but equally be the next Callum Ball.

Only time will tell.

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Good example at city already. G thomas scores alot in u23 too.

Cov kid 55 · Jan 23, 2017

oucho said:
Morning - a bit of depressing maths/stats for you all.

If we take the 50 point mark as a survival target, we have got 19 remaining games to get there from our current 21 points.

To get 29 points over 19 games means winning points now at a rate of 1.52 points per game from here on (incidentally,such a rate over the course of the season would have taken us to 70 points which last season would have been good enough for 8th in the league in the final standings).

So far this season we have got 21 points from 27 games = 0.77 points per game. That means that to get to the required 1.52 PPG, we need to immediately and consistently double our points per game ration between now and the last game of the season (0.77 x 2 = 1.54). As tall orders go, that's Richard Keil (Jaws from James Bond).

As if that isn't bad enough, to get those 29 points we'll probably need 8 wins (8 x 3 = 24) plus 5 draws (5 +24 = 29, 29 + current 21 = 50). Winning only 7 of the remaining games gives us 21 points and would need us to get 8 draws (3 x 7 = 21, + 8 = 29), which means we'd only be able to afford to lose 4 of the remaining 19 games. So let's take the 8 wins and 5 draws model:

8 wins is double our total of wins in the season so far (27 games), which has seen us with a games/win ratio of 14.8% so far this season. To get 8 wins from 19 games is a games/win ratio of 42% - so, in other words, we'd need to increase the rate at which we win our games by nearly x 3 in the rest of the season, compared with the season so far. Yes, an effective striker could change a lot over a relatively short space of time, but it does indeed sound like a long shot.

I reflected on this last night, boring the missus to death for about an hour as she tried to go to sleep, and I came to the conclusion I have left camp "we're in the brown stuff but we'll be OK" and instead joined camp "we're gonna go down, barring a near-miracle".

Thanks for this Oucho, it's a damned depressing read but a good analysis. We need promotion type performance over the next 15 games, and although my supporter's heart says we can do it, my head says we've dropped too far. Two weeks ago we needed one win to move out of the relegation places, now it's three. We do, I think, look stronger at the back, we need more creativity to make chances, and someone to take those chances.

Paxman II · Jan 24, 2017

oucho said:
Morning - a bit of depressing maths/stats for you all.

If we take the 50 point mark as a survival target, we have got 19 remaining games to get there from our current 21 points.

To get 29 points over 19 games means winning points now at a rate of 1.52 points per game from here on (incidentally,such a rate over the course of the season would have taken us to 70 points which last season would have been good enough for 8th in the league in the final standings).

So far this season we have got 21 points from 27 games = 0.77 points per game. That means that to get to the required 1.52 PPG, we need to immediately and consistently double our points per game ration between now and the last game of the season (0.77 x 2 = 1.54). As tall orders go, that's Richard Keil (Jaws from James Bond).

As if that isn't bad enough, to get those 29 points we'll probably need 8 wins (8 x 3 = 24) plus 5 draws (5 +24 = 29, 29 + current 21 = 50). Winning only 7 of the remaining games gives us 21 points and would need us to get 8 draws (3 x 7 = 21, + 8 = 29), which means we'd only be able to afford to lose 4 of the remaining 19 games. So let's take the 8 wins and 5 draws model:

8 wins is double our total of wins in the season so far (27 games), which has seen us with a games/win ratio of 14.8% so far this season. To get 8 wins from 19 games is a games/win ratio of 42% - so, in other words, we'd need to increase the rate at which we win our games by nearly x 3 in the rest of the season, compared with the season so far. Yes, an effective striker could change a lot over a relatively short space of time, but it does indeed sound like a long shot.

I reflected on this last night, boring the missus to death for about an hour as she tried to go to sleep, and I came to the conclusion I have left camp "we're in the brown stuff but we'll be OK" and instead joined camp "we're gonna go down, barring a near-miracle".

There are other teams around us saying the same thing and others above who may yet crash and burn which is why stats mean very little. Ask Cardiff who have completely turned their season around. Ask Barnsley from last year or Wigan. Stats are not fact and like opinion polls invariably unreliable!

Otis · Jan 24, 2017

Paxman II said:
There are other teams around us saying the same thing and others above who may yet crash and burn which is why stats mean very little. Ask Cardiff who have completely turned their season around. Ask Barnsley from last year or Wigan. Stats are not fact and like opinion polls invariably unreliable!

Well yep, but then look at our squad. Had we been in a false position then I would say yes, we have a not bad side and we can get out of this.

Trouble is we have a poor side.

Slade now has 7 days to rectify this and make us half decent.

Otis · Jan 27, 2017

Just been looking at the upcoming fixtures.

Going to be mighty tough to get out of this, but we do play teams in and around us (Bury, Oldham, Swindon).

If we are going to escape these are exactly the sort of games we need to achieve it.

Gazolba · Jan 27, 2017

If we somehow avoid relegation it will be one of the most unlikely escapes ever, and Russell Slade should be given the freedom of the city.
It's 99% certain not to happen though.

oucho · Jan 27, 2017

One thing that gives hope is that many CCFC have looked doomed but stayed up, hence the whole "Sky Blue Titanic" thing.

Paxman is right - I wasn't trying to "prove" we are going to get relegated, but the numbers do make sobering reading because they really underline the size of the task ahead. It has to start tomorrow with a win, against a team with 8 losses in 10 games.

If we can't win tomorrow, plus a lack of good feeling about new signings on the horizon, I think I will probably accept in my own mind we're for the drop. Wont; stop me supporting the lads at Wimbledon and MK though!

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