Safety ? Long way to go yet. (1 Viewer)

rupert_bear · Apr 16, 2015

Studying the table, the fixtures etc and in this strange relegation battle although we are presently a few places above the drop zone it is still very much game on for us to keep out of that zone imo. I believe we need three points minimum to stay up and we have to be favourites to get nowt Saturday. Now there's Crawley v Notts County and a defeat for either and I think that would be curtains for the loser although County do have a game extra. On paper a draw looks the best result for us, but is it ? as a draw brings both a within striking distance of us, goal difference helps us re. Crawley but Notts are only 3 goals adrift and any loss for us at Bristol and that 3 goal cushion reduces.

So we come to the Crewe match, alas I remember THAT semi and we all know Crewe have become a bit of a bogey side especially at the Ricoh. Of course there are others in the mix too with some needing 4 points from the remaining 3 matches to get by us but to me it is all heading to a show down at Crawley and as we have not been in the bottom 4 all season, been a lot of twists and turns this season, so I worry about that one.

jimmyhillsfanclub · Apr 16, 2015

rupert_bear said:
Studying the table, the fixtures etc and in this strange relegation battle although we are presently a few places above the drop zone it is still very much game on for us to keep out of that zone imo. I believe we need three points minimum to stay up and we have to be favourites to get nowt Saturday. Now there's Crawley v Notts County and a defeat for either and I think that would be curtains for the loser although County do have a game extra. On paper a draw looks the best result for us, but is it ? as a draw brings both a within striking distance of us, goal difference helps us re. Crawley but Notts are only 3 goals adrift and any loss for us at Bristol and that 3 goal cushion reduces.

So we come to the Crewe match, alas I remember THAT semi and we all know Crewe have become a bit of a bogey side especially at the Ricoh. Of course there are others in the mix too with some needing 4 points from the remaining 3 matches to get by us but to me it is all heading to a show down at Crawley and as we have not been in the bottom 4 all season, been a lot of twists and turns this season, so I worry about that one.

Nah....1 point will be enough....although I wouldn't be that surprised if we have enough already.....there is no way 5 of the 7 teams that are shitter than us will be able to overhaul our total....

....Oh and we have been in the bottom 4 this season......luckily it appeared to be the catalyst to finally pull the trigger on SP.

PVA · Apr 16, 2015

Said it in another thread but I think we could lose our remaining games and stay up, there are too many teams below us and a lot of them play each other. They can't ALL get the points.

One more point will definitely do it for us.

edgy · Apr 16, 2015

One point will do it. Might even have enough already.

SkyBlue_Bear83 · Apr 16, 2015

one point will be enough if its off Crewe or Crawley I think

Otis · Apr 16, 2015

Yep, totally agree. I think 4 points ahead is already enough to see us safe.

You have to remember there are EIGHT teams below us and we are at least 4 points clear of 5 of those teams.

SonofErnie · Apr 16, 2015

If all the teams had 3 games left I think I could say with near 100% certainty that we will stay up on the points total we already have. As it stands, I'm 80% certain we would stay up on the current points total. That said, a point from the Bristol or Crewe game should avoid any last day jitters.

skybluesam66 · Apr 16, 2015

i went through all of the remaining scores , and was generous to everybody except ourselves - 1 point would be enough - however, i expect us to lose on saturday, so that puts a LOT of pressure on the crewe game

Captain Dart · Apr 16, 2015

It will be OK, stop worrying.

The CableGuy · Apr 16, 2015

Our goal difference is a lot better than some of the teams below us as well.

I think were going be OK. After this clusterfuck of a season I'd be happy with that. We just need to be careful not to underestimate Crewe.

hill83 · Apr 16, 2015

Captain Dart said:
It will be OK, stop worrying.

Never. Not until next seasons fixtures are out. Those games in hand worry me.

skybluesam66 · Apr 16, 2015

the reason why we worry is that we are always shite at the end of the season (although we seem to be arresting that slump so far this season)

Last 8 seasons records for April and May below - and 1 season apart (andy thorns 1st few games) it is appalling

P 53 points 34
and excluding that one good season

P 45 points 22

2013/14 P7 W 0 D3 L4
2012/13 P5 W 0 D 2 L3
2011/12 P6 W0 D2 L4
2010/11 P8 W3 D3 L2 blip - we did ok in Andy thorns 1st few weeks
2009/10 P6 W0 D2 L4
2008/09 P8 W0 D4 L4
2007/08 P6 W1 D2 L3
2006/07 P7 W1 D1 L5

This is our form in the last 8 seasons prior to this one in April and May

so although this season we have put that demon to bed,

Ranjit Bhurpa · Apr 16, 2015

With the exception of Bristol City and PNE, there is very little consistency in this league. I don't see how we can be safe on 51 pts with some teams having a game in hand on us and the virtual impossibility of predicting any result at this stage of the season. The table could look a lot different on Saturday night.

Speedies_Chips · Apr 16, 2015

skybluesam66 said:
the reason why we worry is that we are always shite at the end of the season (although we seem to be arresting that slump so far this season)

Last 8 seasons records for April and May below - and 1 season apart (andy thorns 1st few games) it is appalling

P 53 points 34
and excluding that one good season

P 45 points 22

2013/14 P7 W 0 D3 L4
2012/13 P5 W 0 D 2 L3
2011/12 P6 W0 D2 L4
2010/11 P8 W3 D3 L2 blip - we did ok in Andy thorns 1st few weeks
2009/10 P6 W0 D2 L4
2008/09 P8 W0 D4 L4
2007/08 P6 W1 D2 L3
2006/07 P7 W1 D1 L5

This is our form in the last 8 seasons prior to this one in April and May

so although this season we have put that demon to bed,

Christ! I didnt realise we were that bad at the end of each season. !

Sky Blue Harry H · Apr 16, 2015

Speedies_Chips said:
Christ! I didnt realise we were that bad at the end of each season. !

Really is scary, isn't it?!

Como · Apr 16, 2015

All we need is a win on Saturday, can not see anybody then overtaking.

PUSB

IrishSkyBlue · Apr 16, 2015

we get a draw saturday were safe, we lose and i still feel we will either win or draw one of our last 2 games which will keep us up, the amount of ifs and things need to go wrong for us to go down compared to other teams is too much if we did go down its a sign and hopefully sisu well do one and sell up.

Hobo · Apr 16, 2015

It always amazes me every year, about six games to go and we are 3 points off a relegation place; you have fans saying "another win and a draw and we are safe."

Can they not do simple maths?

Sky Blue Harry H · Apr 16, 2015

Hobo said:
It always amazes me every year, about six games to go and we are 3 points off a relegation place; you have fans saying "another win and a draw and we are safe."

Can they not do simple maths?

Apparently not hobo, although to be fair, we could stay up without another point, or be relegated having got another 3, so it's quite a difficult calculation. My brother in law is an Oxford maths genius, and I think he'd come up with something like this = safe (probably)

Johhny Blue · Apr 16, 2015

We were safe the minute Mowbray put pen to paper.

Astute · Apr 17, 2015

Hobo said:
It always amazes me every year, about six games to go and we are 3 points off a relegation place; you have fans saying "another win and a draw and we are safe."

Can they not do simple maths?

As in that all the clubs that have struggled to win a game all season won't win all the remaining games including when they play each other?

Otis · Apr 17, 2015

Hobo said:
It always amazes me every year, about six games to go and we are 3 points off a relegation place; you have fans saying "another win and a draw and we are safe."

Can they not do simple maths?

It's not maths though is it, it's a belief that if we got that one win, other teams would not achieve the results to catch us.

Like now, I think we may well already have enough points, but believe that one point will make us safe. Not mathematically, but practically, because I don't believe other teams will make up that point differential.

rupert_bear · Apr 17, 2015

I will sleep a lot easier if we get the same result as Crewe Alexander

Hobo · Apr 17, 2015

Otis said:
It's not maths though is it, it's a belief that if we got that one win, other teams would not achieve the results to catch us.

Like now, I think we may well already have enough points, but believe that one point will make us safe. Not mathematically, but practically, because I don't believe other teams will make up that point differential.

And a failure to realise every year teams down the bottom actually start winning because they have to. Every year teams climb out of the bottom three and someone drops in often on the last game of the season. On the last day of the season it is all about maths.

Astute · Apr 17, 2015

Hobo said:
And a failure to realise every year teams down the bottom actually start winning because they have to. Every year teams climb out of the bottom three and someone drops in often on the last game of the season. On the last day of the season it is all about maths.

Yeovil have gone.

We are in 16th so that means that there are another 7 clubs below us trying to keep out of the last 3 places.

There is only 1 club below us with a better GD.

We are 4 points clear from 20th and they are not in the bottom 4.

We are 80/1 to go down. So the bookies see us as being safe

Otis · Apr 17, 2015

Hobo said:
And a failure to realise every year teams down the bottom actually start winning because they have to. Every year teams climb out of the bottom three and someone drops in often on the last game of the season. On the last day of the season it is all about maths.

Colchester lost 6-0 last week and Crawley 5-0.

Colchester and Crawley have both lost their last 2 games, Leyton Orient haven't won now for 4 games, Crewe haven't won for 4 games, Notts County haven't won for 7 games.

Mary_Mungo_Midge · Apr 17, 2015

The table makes me feel very nervy. Recent form and looking at the games to come; it looks like we'll end up on 54 points. With other teams having games in hand, that'll be touch and go. Its far from over, surely?

skybluesam66 · Apr 17, 2015

Astute said:
Yeovil have gone.

We are in 16th so that means that there are another 7 clubs below us trying to keep out of the last 3 places.

There is only 1 club below us with a better GD.

We are 4 points clear from 20th and they are not in the bottom 4.

We are 80/1 to go down. So the bookies see us as being safe

i was about to get on at 80/1, but then realised you were lying - we are actually nearer 14/1

phildownunder · Apr 17, 2015

Mary_Mungo_Midge said:
The table makes me feel very nervy. Recent form and looking at the games to come; it looks like we'll end up on 54 points. With other teams having games in hand, that'll be touch and go. Its far from over, surely?

We may have enough points already, although another one would be nice to make sure.

If we get to 54 points I`d say it absolutely impossible for us to go down.

st john · Apr 17, 2015

Statistically we look safe,
The last 10 years (since it was called league 1) the following points were required for safety.
2004/5 - 52 (5 teams were relegated this season)
2005/6 - 51
2006/7 - 52 (again 5 teams were relegated, only 48 points were required otherwise)
2007/8 - 49
2008/9 - 51
2009-10 - 51
2010/11 - 49
2011/12 - 44
2012/13 - 49
2013/14 - 48
These were points clear required to stay up, not on goal difference.
Definitely I think 1 more point will be enough.
http://www.myfootballfacts.com/Third_Division_Tables_1992-93_to_2012-13.html

SkyBlue_Bear83 · Apr 17, 2015

Mary_Mungo_Midge said:
The table makes me feel very nervy. Recent form and looking at the games to come; it looks like we'll end up on 54 points. With other teams having games in hand, that'll be touch and go. Its far from over, surely?

54 will be enough, 52 and our GD should be enough. 51 possibly enough but my gut says it won't

Hobo · Apr 17, 2015

Otis said:
Colchester lost 6-0 last week and Crawley 5-0.

Colchester and Crawley have both lost their last 2 games, Leyton Orient haven't won now for 4 games, Crewe haven't won for 4 games, Notts County haven't won for 7 games.

I think this weekend is key. If results go in our favour we will be okay. If they don't we could be dragged back into it. That could leave us with two pressure games?

Otis · Apr 17, 2015

Hobo said:
I think this weekend is key. If results go in our favour we will be okay. If they don't we could be dragged back into it. That could leave us with two pressure games?

I do agree that quite often team's results improve around this time, but for many of our rivals, they do seem to be on a bit of a slump at the moment.

I can't believe that all the results this weekend will go against us.

Mary_Mungo_Midge · Apr 17, 2015

CCFC said:
54 will be enough, 52 and our GD should be enough. 51 possibly enough but my gut says it won't

Orient and County both have games in hand. Can't see us taking anything from Bristol; which makes Crewe an enormous game. I don't think 52 will prove anything near enough. Momentum and confidence are important at times like this. Do we have enough old heads to steady the boat?

jimmyhillsfanclub · Apr 17, 2015

Mary_Mungo_Midge said:
Orient and County both have games in hand. Can't see us taking anything from Bristol; which makes Crewe an enormous game. I don't think 52 will prove anything near enough. Momentum and confidence are important at times like this. Do we have enough old heads to steady the boat?

52 not anywhere near enough???? Are you mad?? There are still 9 teams that are below 52 points at present with only 3 or 4 games left......

I know as CCFC fans, we develop a justified sense of pessimism but that's just plain ridiculous......

52 will defo be enough....chill.

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