SISU's Cash Flow Budget (2 Viewers)

Voice_of_Reason · Oct 8, 2013

I firmly believe we are being conned by SISI in trying to convince us that renting Sixfields is cheaper than renting the Ricoh for 3 - 5 years.

I am challenging them now to proved the supporters with proof of this and publish a cash-flow forecast for the next 3 - 5 years, based on a Ricoh rent ACL has suggested might be possible once the two sides sit down and talk (£150,000 pa)

Estimate gates at Sixfields of a very generous 3,000 plus F and B. Estimate gates at the Ricoh of a conservative 8,000 plus some Fand B and I can't for the life of me see why SISU,a company responsible to it's investors, should opt for the more cash guzzling alternative.

Bet they won't, but it might help if they did this.

kingharvest · Oct 8, 2013

Just playing devils advocate - when did they say it was cheaper? They asked to rent the Ricoh for 3 years - back in January - whilst they built a new ground and ACL said no.

sky blue john · Oct 8, 2013

kingharvest said:
Just
playing devils advocate - when did they say it was cheaper? They asked to rent the Ricoh for 3 years - back in January - whilst they built a new ground and ACL said no.

Of course they asked it would have saved them having to break the current lease the hard way !!!

kingharvest · Oct 8, 2013

sky blue john said:
Of course they asked it would have saved them having to break the current lease the hard way !!!

and of course no-one really knows the details of the offer. If it was just an enquiry as to whether ACL would entertain the thought, or whether they actually proposed a deal which was unacceptable to ACL. In addition, ACL have since suggested a short term rental deal haven't they? But SISU have rejected it out of hand.

sky blue john · Oct 8, 2013

kingharvest said:
and of course no-one really knows the details of the offer. If it was just an enquiry as
to whether ACL would entertain the thought, or whether they actually proposed a deal which was unacceptable to ACL. In addition, ACL have since suggested a short term rental deal haven't they? But SISU have rejected it out of hand.

Obviously Acl only offered a short term deal because the old lease was about to be liquidated with ccfc ltd.
And Sisu rejected it because they probably felt they where in a position of strength. But that feeling of strength has recently diminished with the fans not flooding back as TF predicted. This is why Sisu have been a bit more pro active in their pr campaign recently suggesting a return to Ricoh under ownership would be considered.

Godiva · Oct 8, 2013

kingharvest said:
and of course no-one really knows the details of the offer. If it was just an enquiry as to whether ACL would entertain the thought, or whether they actually proposed a deal which was unacceptable to ACL. In addition, ACL have since suggested a short term rental deal haven't they? But SISU have rejected it out of hand.

By short term you mean 10 years? They only want 3 years with an option for another two ... like the one they have at sixfields.

I think ACL are betting on sisu bluffing about building a new stadium. Smart if they are right - catastrophic if they are wrong.

bigfatronssba · Oct 8, 2013

No advertising money at sixfields as well remember.

kingharvest · Oct 8, 2013

This whole fans flooding back thing - i asked Tim Fisher about that when I met Joy Seppala. Can anyone remember where he said it? I couldn't remember whether it was at one of the forums or not

lewys33 · Oct 8, 2013

I do believe the rumour was £170,000 rent a year at northampton.

lewys33 · Oct 8, 2013

Voice_of_Reason said:
I firmly believe we are being conned by SISI in trying to convince us that renting Sixfields is cheaper than renting the Ricoh for 3 - 5 years.

I am challenging them now to proved the supporters with proof of this and publish a cash-flow forecast for the next 3 - 5 years, based on a Ricoh rent ACL has suggested might be possible once the two sides sit down and talk (£150,000 pa)

Estimate gates at Sixfields of a very generous 3,000 plus F and B. Estimate gates at the Ricoh of a conservative 8,000 plus some Fand B and I can't for the life of me see why SISU,a company responsible to it's investors, should opt for the more cash guzzling alternative.

Bet they won't, but it might help if they did this.

I am glad somebody else has done this. I did exactly the same, and obviously the Ricoh come out top. I even worked it out with the offer of £400,000 a year rent it worked out the same as northampton.

All this talk of F & B is ridiculous when it averages at around £3 per head. Ticket prices are much higher than that. So surely it is head count you should be more worried about?

sky blue john · Oct 8, 2013

Godiva said:
By short term you mean 10 years? They only want 3 years with an option for another two ... like the one they have at sixfields.

I think ACL are betting on sisu bluffing about building a new stadium. Smart if they are right - catastrophic if they are wrong.

Agreed about the bluff !!
But its the fans stance not going to sixfields has in my opinion forced Sisu's hand !
How can Sisu's investors finance a stadium based on 1500 fans and no gurantees that 10k+ gates will be achieved in 3-5 years time !!!

kingharvest · Oct 8, 2013

Not in that one CJ...just a comment at the end

Deleted member 5849 · Oct 8, 2013

Glad you said that, read it 3 times looking for the quote!

italiahorse · Oct 8, 2013

kingharvest said:
This whole fans flooding back thing - i asked Tim Fisher about that when I met Joy Seppala. Can anyone remember where he said it? I couldn't remember whether it was at one of the forums or not

At the last forum.

"Build it and they will come"

One of the main reasons I can't stand the bloke or attend a 'home' games outside Coventry.

Just imagine him looking down on me and thinking that comment as he looks at me.

skybluesam66 · Oct 8, 2013

Ricoh 200000 spectators at £15 = £3m
sixfields 50000 at £10 = £0.5m

at 5 years = £12.5m

thats excluding the cost of the new ground

kingharvest · Oct 8, 2013

italiahorse said:
At the last forum.

"Build it and they will come"

One of the main reasons I can't stand the bloke or attend a 'home' games outside Coventry.

Just imagine him looking down on me and thinking that comment as he looks at me.

Was that about sixfields or the new stadium?

skybluelee · Oct 8, 2013

skybluesam66 said:
Ricoh 200000 spectators at £15 = £3m
sixfields 50000 at £10 = £0.5m

at 5 years = £12.5m

thats excluding the cost of the new ground

Add on loss of merchandise and sponsorship.

FL - hang your heads for allowing these bastards to do this to our club.

Sub · Oct 8, 2013

Godiva said:
By short term you mean 10 years? They only want 3 years with an option for another two ... like the one they have at sixfields.

I think ACL are betting on sisu bluffing about building a new stadium. Smart if they are right - catastrophic if they are wrong.

i thought the FL state there must be a minimum of a 10 year lease agreement ?

lewys33 · Oct 8, 2013

skybluesam66 said:
Ricoh 200000 spectators at £15 = £3m
sixfields 50000 at £10 = £0.5m

at 5 years = £12.5m

thats excluding the cost of the new ground

I'm not sure how you did that ....... but what I did was:

2000 fans at sixfields at £16 per game + £3 per head F&B = £32000 + £6000 = £38,000 per game.

9000 fans at Ricoh at £22 per game + £0 per head F&B = £198,000 per game.

23 home games a season makes it:

Sixfields - £874,000
Ricoh - £4,554,000

Now for arguments sake lets say rent at Sixfields is £150,000, and the rent at the Ricoh had been agreed at the original £400,000 offered when talks began.
So the ratio is:

Sixfields - 5.83:1
Ricoh - 11.39:1

Obviously this is just a simple way of working it out, there is a lot more to actually take in to consideration. But this clearly shows that there was no point what so ever to leave Coventry. EVEN IF they had agreed the original offer of £400,000 a year rent they would be much better off staying at the Ricoh.

Ashdown1 · Oct 8, 2013

Godiva said:
By short term you mean 10 years? They only want 3 years with an option for another two ... like the one they have at sixfields.

I think ACL are betting on sisu bluffing about building a new stadium. Smart if they are right - catastrophic if they are wrong.

They are bluffing you great numpty and you know it !!

Godiva · Oct 8, 2013

Sub said:
i thought the FL state there must be a minimum of a 10 year lease agreement ?

It's been quoted many times, so probably true. But that just highlight my point - if a new stadium is to be build, then that is the long term plan and staying 5-7 years longer at the Ricoh is a no-go.

Deleted member 5849 · Oct 8, 2013

It's also been pointed out that it's an easy excuse to hide behind only offering 10 years and no less, as the fact the football league have urged the club and ACL to talk about getting back to Cov ASAP, along with sanctioning a 3-5 year deal in Northampton would see them more than happy to sanction a temporary deal for the same length in Coventry itself.

Delboycov · Oct 8, 2013

italiahorse said:
At the last forum.

"Build it and they will come"

One of the main reasons I can't stand the bloke or attend a 'home' games outside Coventry.

Just imagine him looking down on me and thinking that comment as he looks at me.

I was at that one and that gave everyone the biggest laugh of the evening...up there with "well the accounts are a bit of a mess"!

lewys33 · Oct 8, 2013

Sub said:
i thought the FL state there must be a minimum of a 10 year lease agreement ?

Of course the FL stick by their own rules. If they have agreed to the groundshare at Northampton they could agree to us staying at the Ricoh for 5 years.

Godiva · Oct 8, 2013

lewys33 said:
I'm not sure how you did that ....... but what I did was:

2000 fans at sixfields at £16 per game + £3 per head F&B = £32000 + £6000 = £38,000 per game.

9000 fans at Ricoh at £22 per game + £0 per head F&B = £198,000 per game.

23 home games a season makes it:

Sixfields - £874,000
Ricoh - £4,554,000

Now for arguments sake lets say rent at Sixfields is £150,000, and the rent at the Ricoh had been agreed at the original £400,000 offered when talks began.
So the ratio is:

Sixfields - 5.83:1
Ricoh - 11.39:1

Obviously this is just a simple way of working it out, there is a lot more to actually take in to consideration. But this clearly shows that there was no point what so ever to leave Coventry. EVEN IF they had agreed the original offer of £400,000 a year rent they would be much better off staying at the Ricoh.

And one key element is a 3/5 year rent is not an option at the Ricoh. It's at least 10 years - and even that hasn't been offered to Otium.
Assuming ACL would offer a 10 year lease at £150K per year you must then calculate the lost revenue in those 5-7 years not needed. ACL are not stupid so Otium would likely have to pay a penalty to not play there the entire duration of the lease.

Godiva · Oct 8, 2013

Deleted member 5849 said:
It's also been pointed out that it's an easy excuse to hide behind only offering 10 years and no less, as the fact the football league have urged the club and ACL to talk about getting back to Cov ASAP, along with sanctioning a 3-5 year deal in Northampton would see them more than happy to sanction a temporary deal for the same length in Coventry itself.

Yes it makes sense, FL could easily sanction a three year lease. So have ACL offered that to Otium?

skybluesam66 · Oct 8, 2013

lewys33 said:
I'm not sure how you did that ....... but what I did was:

2000 fans at sixfields at £16 per game + £3 per head F&B = £32000 + £6000 = £38,000 per game.

9000 fans at Ricoh at £22 per game + £0 per head F&B = £198,000 per game.

23 home games a season makes it:

Sixfields - £874,000
Ricoh - £4,554,000

Now for arguments sake lets say rent at Sixfields is £150,000, and the rent at the Ricoh had been agreed at the original £400,000 offered when talks began.
So the ratio is:

Sixfields - 5.83:1
Ricoh - 11.39:1

Obviously this is just a simple way of working it out, there is a lot more to actually take in to consideration. But this clearly shows that there was no point what so ever to leave Coventry. EVEN IF they had agreed the original offer of £400,000 a year rent they would be much better off staying at the Ricoh.

these are high average ticket prices
£15 at ricoh and £10 at sixfields will be closer

take off VAT and include season tickets and kids prices

lewys33 · Oct 8, 2013

Godiva said:
And one key element is a 3/5 year rent is not an option at the Ricoh. It's at least 10 years - and even that hasn't been offered to Otium.
Assuming ACL would offer a 10 year lease at £150K per year you must then calculate the lost revenue in those 5-7 years not needed. ACL are not stupid so Otium would likely have to pay a penalty to not play there the entire duration of the lease.

Ok I appreciate the above so I will do my best to work this out then as well. Just to get a bit of perspective. We will use the 150k a year rent offered for 10 years to Paul Appleton and we will use 5 years to build a new stadium.

Sixfields - £874,000 a season x 5 = £4,370,000
Ricoh - £4,454,000 a season x 5 = £22,270,000

take off the rent.

Sixfields - £4,370,000 - (5 x £150,000) = £3,620,000
Ricoh - £22,270,000 - (10 x £150,000) = £20,770,000

Now for arguments sake let's say ACL charge £1,000,000 per year the lease is broken. 5 x £1,000,000 is £5,000,000

£20,770,000 - £5,000,000 = £15,770,000 ...... still just over 4 times what sixfields could generate.

Again do not take this as fact, just a perspective.

lewys33 · Oct 8, 2013

skybluesam66 said:
these are high average ticket prices
£15 at ricoh and £10 at sixfields will be closer

take off VAT and include season tickets and kids prices

1. I took £16 a ticket from the CCFC website for games at Northampton, and £22 was the going rate(ish) at the Ricoh.

2. I said that this was a simple way of working it out. I don't plan on going that deep in to looking at it. If I had effort and time I would look in to stuff like that but I still believe that it would work out that the Ricoh was a better option.

Godiva · Oct 8, 2013

lewys33 said:
Ok I appreciate the above so I will do my best to work this out then as well. Just to get a bit of perspective. We will use the 150k a year rent offered for 10 years to Paul Appleton and we will use 5 years to build a new stadium.

Sixfields - £874,000 a season x 5 = £4,370,000
Ricoh - £4,454,000 a season x 5 = £22,270,000

take off the rent.

Sixfields - £4,370,000 - (5 x £150,000) = £3,620,000
Ricoh - £22,270,000 - (10 x £150,000) = £20,770,000

Now for arguments sake let's say ACL charge £1,000,000 per year the lease is broken. 5 x £1,000,000 is £5,000,000

£20,770,000 - £5,000,000 = £15,770,000 ...... still just over 4 times what sixfields could generate.

Again do not take this as fact, just a perspective.

There's probably more to it, but overall I think you are correct. It cost sisu dearly to play at sixfields and not the Ricoh.
Do you think ACL have actually offered a new deal to sisu?
And as said in another post FL may even agree to a 3 year deal. Have ACL offered that?

lewys33 · Oct 8, 2013

Godiva said:
There's probably more to it, but overall I think you are correct. It cost sisu dearly to play at sixfields and not the Ricoh.
Do you think ACL have actually offered a new deal to sisu?
And as said in another post FL may even agree to a 3 year deal. Have ACL offered that?

No I don't think they have. On the basis of the JR - and JS has said we won't be back unless we own it. Both sides at fault again. SISU should contact ACL with their best offer to buy. If ACL don't want to sell, they should offer SISU the Ricoh for 3-5 years while they build their new stadium. Who thinks that will happen?

Godiva · Oct 8, 2013

lewys33 said:
No I don't think they have. On the basis of the JR - and JS has said we won't be back unless we own it. Both sides at fault again. SISU should contact ACL with their best offer to buy. If ACL don't want to sell, they should offer SISU the Ricoh for 3-5 years while they build their new stadium. Who thinks that will happen?

The JR have nothing to do with ACL, so that shouldn't stop anything.
I think if ACL haven't yet offered anything to Otium or even invited them to a meeting, then they must be happy with the current situation.
JS and TF says they are angry ACL cost the team a 10 point meaningless penalty. So I don't think they will try to break the deadlock.

lewys33 · Oct 8, 2013

Godiva said:
The JR have nothing to do with ACL, so that shouldn't stop anything.
I think if ACL haven't yet offered anything to Otium or even invited them to a meeting, then they must be happy with the current situation.
JS and TF says they are angry ACL cost the team a 10 point meaningless penalty. So I don't think they will try to break the deadlock.

It kind of does, as the JR is to do with CCC taking control of ACL's mortgage. ACL is also party owned by CCC. I don't think they could say they are "happy" with the current situation. I would say "coping" is a better word. JS said in the interview with Les Reid she has no desire to run a football club. So to also say she is angry with ACL for costing the team a 10 point penalty is ridiculous. I would suggest she is more bothered that it has come to this and she didn't get her way of getting the mortgage cheap herself. TF can say whatever he wants really he doesn't have the power to change anything as proven.

Godiva · Oct 8, 2013

lewys33 said:
It kind of does, as the JR is to do with CCC taking control of ACL's mortgage. ACL is also party owned by CCC. I don't think they could say they are "happy" with the current situation. I would say "coping" is a better word. JS said in the interview with Les Reid she has no desire to run a football club. So to also say she is angry with ACL for costing the team a 10 point penalty is ridiculous. I would suggest she is more bothered that it has come to this and she didn't get her way of getting the mortgage cheap herself. TF can say whatever he wants really he doesn't have the power to change anything as proven.

Ok, let's just leave it there.
My basic POV is the club must own its stadium. I can see why it will never be the Ricoh - both sides have dug too deep trenches and that is even reflected in the fan base.
So a new stadium is more likely and I support that.

sky blue john · Oct 8, 2013

Godiva said:
JS and TF says they are angry ACL cost the team a 10 point meaningless penalty. So I don't think they will try to break the deadlock.

I think Sisu will have to break the deadlock. They have an easy get out by saying we have listened to the fans and this is what they want !!!!

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