The CableGuy
Well-Known Member
Let's look at the relegated teams that finished in 22nd place over the past 8 seasons in this league:
2010/11: Preston, 42 points
2009/10: Sheff Wed, 47 points
2008/09: Norwich, 46 points
2007/08: Leicester, 52 points (we finished in 21st/53 pts despite the Charlton 'performance')
2006/07: Southend, 42 points
2005/06: Crewe, 42 points
2004/05: Gillingham: 50 points (went down on goal difference, Crewe stayed up)
2003/04: Walsall, 51 points (went down on goal difference, Gillingham stayed up)
Over the last 8 seasons, teams on average have required more than 46.5 points to stay up.
Lets say that City need 47 points to stay up.
This is what they had until now, what they've got, and what they have left:
27 games played.
19 games left.
22 points at present.
57 points left to play for.
************************
Assuming that 47 points would be enough, City need another 25 points from their remaining 19 games.
City need something like:
8 wins and 1 draw from 19 games
OR perhaps
6 wins and 10 draws from 19 games
OR, if you're looking at a minimum number of wins required plus draws:
3 wins and 16 draws
....which would require City to lose none of their remaining 19 games.
The key fact is this:
Assuming that 47 points would be enough, City can afford to lose a maximum of TEN of their remaining 19 games. If they lost 10, they could still stay up, but only if they won 8 and drew 1 of their remaining games.
You, at the back? Stop laughing!
Of course if the teams above us pick up form and leave us further behind for dust at the bottom of the league, then this becomes totally irrelevant anyway and you should start asking your sat-nav the best way to get to Hartlepool and Yeovil.
So, there you have it. 8 wins and a draw required, give or take a win depending on what teams do and on what's happened over the previous 8 seasons.
2010/11: Preston, 42 points
2009/10: Sheff Wed, 47 points
2008/09: Norwich, 46 points
2007/08: Leicester, 52 points (we finished in 21st/53 pts despite the Charlton 'performance')
2006/07: Southend, 42 points
2005/06: Crewe, 42 points
2004/05: Gillingham: 50 points (went down on goal difference, Crewe stayed up)
2003/04: Walsall, 51 points (went down on goal difference, Gillingham stayed up)
Over the last 8 seasons, teams on average have required more than 46.5 points to stay up.
Lets say that City need 47 points to stay up.
This is what they had until now, what they've got, and what they have left:
27 games played.
19 games left.
22 points at present.
57 points left to play for.
************************
Assuming that 47 points would be enough, City need another 25 points from their remaining 19 games.
City need something like:
8 wins and 1 draw from 19 games
OR perhaps
6 wins and 10 draws from 19 games
OR, if you're looking at a minimum number of wins required plus draws:
3 wins and 16 draws
....which would require City to lose none of their remaining 19 games.
The key fact is this:
Assuming that 47 points would be enough, City can afford to lose a maximum of TEN of their remaining 19 games. If they lost 10, they could still stay up, but only if they won 8 and drew 1 of their remaining games.
You, at the back? Stop laughing!
Of course if the teams above us pick up form and leave us further behind for dust at the bottom of the league, then this becomes totally irrelevant anyway and you should start asking your sat-nav the best way to get to Hartlepool and Yeovil.
So, there you have it. 8 wins and a draw required, give or take a win depending on what teams do and on what's happened over the previous 8 seasons.
