the economy - what is going on? (1 Viewer)

clint van damme · Oct 18, 2020

really confused by the current state of the economy, people losing their jobs, a lot of companies struggling etc.
However, tradesmen are stacked out, the housing market is fairly buoyant, the wife tried to book us a spar day at a nice place we've been before and we couldn't get in until next January they're that busy - all seems very contradictory.

Some reasons could be:
people spending redundancy pay off
tradesmen trying to clear back logs of work from lock down
the reduction in stamp duty
reduction in capacity with regard to the spar day giving them a full appointment book

is it all going to come crashing down in a few months?

Nick · Oct 18, 2020

The tradespeople I know are all really busy. I am not sure if it's to do with people being sat at home more and wanting it to look nice. With boredom they are noticing things. Some have started to do DIY and then couldnt do it or got fed up. Most of them that I know haven't had a day off throughout lockdown anyway.

I work in IT, it has had phases. Some weeks it will be really really busy with people wanting to work from home but then other weeks it's dead. A lot of people are looking for alternative ways for income so are wanting to create small businesses and small craft businesses and things like that too.

wingy · Oct 18, 2020

clint van damme said:
really confused by the current state of the economy, people losing their jobs, a lot of companies struggling etc.
However, tradesmen are stacked out, the housing market is fairly buoyant, the wife tried to book us a spar day at a nice place we've been before and we couldn't get in until next January they're that busy - all seems very contradictory.

Some reasons could be:
people spending redundancy pay off
tradesmen trying to clear back logs of work from lock down
the reduction in stamp duty
reduction in capacity with regard to the spar day giving them a full appointment book

is it all going to come crashing down in a few months?

Well the tradesmen will notice when the confidence drops I'd wager .

CCFCSteve · Oct 18, 2020

clint van damme said:
really confused by the current state of the economy, people losing their jobs, a lot of companies struggling etc.
However, tradesmen are stacked out, the housing market is fairly buoyant, the wife tried to book us a spar day at a nice place we've been before and we couldn't get in until next January they're that busy - all seems very contradictory.

Some reasons could be:
people spending redundancy pay off
tradesmen trying to clear back logs of work from lock down
the reduction in stamp duty
reduction in capacity with regard to the spar day giving them a full appointment book

is it all going to come crashing down in a few months?

Yeah, strange times Clint. Economy and in particular the property market is being artificially inflated by furlough scheme and stamp duty cut (and initially pent up demand from lockdown) Gut feel is end of this year/early next there will be a dip in property market once all the likely redundancies kick in (so loads of sale chains will be broken). Hopefully won’t be a ‘crash’ though (unless Covid mess continues) as still high demand

Nicks right though, people have been around their houses more, not been spending as much on going out etc so will see bits and pieces that need sorting (or even enough to want to move)

I was out in Birmingham last night and it was noticeably quieter following the new measures which suggests hospitality is going to be struggling especially if restrictions remain over Christmas period

ps might be wrong but guessing spars will be operating on reduced capacity due to restrictions so getting booked up quicker

RFC · Oct 18, 2020

Certain motor manufacturers are having record breaking sales, both new and used.
I could work 5 or 6 days every week delivering cars all over the country but try to limit it to a maximum of three.

Marty · Oct 18, 2020

The company I work for are on the brink but are slowly recovering from the looks of it, they've already said that if the country goes into another full lock down then they're finished. Still loads of staff on furlough.

Decent tradesman are booked out months in advance anyway, my brother has his own firm and he only books up to 12 months in advance now due to staff letting him down/sites running behind. He works in London on the massive sites usually, so I doubt those projects will be stopped.

Grendel · Oct 18, 2020

RFC said:
Certain motor manufacturers are having record breaking sales, both new and used.
I could work 5 or 6 days every week delivering cars all over the country but try to limit it to a maximum of three.

Not really the case - I am sure there are lots of deliveries but that is more down to stock starvation at individual retailers. Production lockdowns have created a disruption in supply chains so many retailers are actually not able to fulfil demand as they have no vehicles. Korean manufacturers and some Toyota models are in a shambolic state.

JLR is on the brink and its no secret its trying to get a bailout. Many of its supply base around the Midlands area are panicking. A second lockdown would kill the industry forever.

Other areas of manufacturing are recovered to similar levels to last year but there are large peaks and big troughs rather than a smooth out of demand - again I would guess supply related. This is the issue with total lockdown it makes impacts across supply chains for months and many businesses with full order books will go bust as they have zero cash.

Sbarcher · Oct 18, 2020

I think there's alot of people with money burning a hole in their pocket after "saving" £1000s on not having a holiday this year. Changed the wife's car last week and the salesman is having to stay behind at night to try and catch up with car sales paperwork.
Personaly saved a mint by not getting out to the pub on a regular basis. Even now, pretty cautious where I go and steering clear of Oxford where I would normally go weekly to shop and socialise. If I can sit outside I will pop into my local but now the weather is changing that will be off the agenda.

clint van damme · Oct 18, 2020

Sbarcher said:
I think there's alot of people with money burning a hole in their pocket after "saving" £1000s on not having a holiday this year. Changed the wife's car last week and the salesman is having to stay behind at night to try and catch up with car sales paperwork.
Personaly saved a mint by not getting out to the pub on a regular basis. Even now, pretty cautious where I go and steering clear of Oxford where I would normally go weekly to shop and socialise. If I can sit outside I will pop into my local but now the weather is changing that will be off the agenda.

Think you're right. A lot of money saved during lockdown is now being spent. Unfortunately that won't last long.

Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Oct 18, 2020

Always a lag between changing behaviour and circumstances.

With people on furlough and therefore still in employment, sitting at home with nothing to do and nowhere to go there's been a bit of retail therapy/home improvement going on.

As that changes and the situation leads to more redundancies rather than just reduced wages consumption will take a hit. Which in turn will affect those businesses carrying on and lead to them laying people off and so on in a vicious circle.

samccov1987 · Oct 18, 2020

Grendel said:
Not really the case - I am sure there are lots of deliveries but that is more down to stock starvation at individual retailers. Production lockdowns have created a disruption in supply chains so many retailers are actually not able to fulfil demand as they have no vehicles. Korean manufacturers and some Toyota models are in a shambolic state.

JLR is on the brink and its no secret its trying to get a bailout. Many of its supply base around the Midlands area are panicking. A second lockdown would kill the industry forever.

Other areas of manufacturing are recovered to similar levels to last year but there are large peaks and big troughs rather than a smooth out of demand - again I would guess supply related. This is the issue with total lockdown it makes impacts across supply chains for months and many businesses with full order books will go bust as they have zero cash.

Yes whilst JLR sales are bouncing back quarter on quarter they are still down year on year. Last year was bad too.

Brexit uncertainty and furlough end and major redundancies will be announced before April.

Grendel · Oct 18, 2020

samccov1987 said:
Yes whilst JLR sales are bouncing back quarter on quarter they are still down year on year. Last year was bad too.

Brexit uncertainty and furlough end and major redundancies will be announced before April.

Europe sales look really poor. They’ve never really managed to break through there at all. Jaguar I’m afraid looks shot

jimmyhillsfanclub · Oct 19, 2020

A very small snapshot from my little business that supports & services hi-tech manufacturing & scientific instrumentation.

Q1: turnover @ only 34% of previous year Q1
Q2: turnover climbed back to 80% of previous year Q2
Currently in Q3, back to pre-covid levels of business however bad debtors list increasing & having to spend far more time on credit control chasing money.

Many manufacturers that run 24/7 have continued to do so, however now have excess stock of product that they can't shift.....I think it'll all fall off a cliff come January 2021.

shmmeee · Oct 19, 2020

I think you’ll see the housing market quiet down. A month ago I had a pick of five or six lenders for a 90% LTV mortgage, now there’s one or two that pop up every few days. Once you cut off the FTBers that’ll filter up as people can’t sell to upsize.

The place I work for supports the property industry and we’ve seen no signs of slowdown yet though. I suspect there’ll be a storm coming in the commercial sector in the coming months. Especially once you add Brexit in come the new year.

fernandopartridge · Oct 19, 2020

clint van damme said:
really confused by the current state of the economy, people losing their jobs, a lot of companies struggling etc.
However, tradesmen are stacked out, the housing market is fairly buoyant, the wife tried to book us a spar day at a nice place we've been before and we couldn't get in until next January they're that busy - all seems very contradictory.

Some reasons could be:
people spending redundancy pay off
tradesmen trying to clear back logs of work from lock down
the reduction in stamp duty
reduction in capacity with regard to the spar day giving them a full appointment book

is it all going to come crashing down in a few months?

Who'd have thought it, self employed tradesmen being busy yet not reflected in any official figures!

fernandopartridge · Oct 19, 2020

Grendel said:
Not really the case - I am sure there are lots of deliveries but that is more down to stock starvation at individual retailers. Production lockdowns have created a disruption in supply chains so many retailers are actually not able to fulfil demand as they have no vehicles. Korean manufacturers and some Toyota models are in a shambolic state.

JLR is on the brink and its no secret its trying to get a bailout. Many of its supply base around the Midlands area are panicking. A second lockdown would kill the industry forever.

Other areas of manufacturing are recovered to similar levels to last year but there are large peaks and big troughs rather than a smooth out of demand - again I would guess supply related. This is the issue with total lockdown it makes impacts across supply chains for months and many businesses with full order books will go bust as they have zero cash.

My sister works for the former CovPress, whatever it's called now. They run hand to mouth in the best of times, the local Jag supply chain is a deck of cards

clint van damme · Oct 19, 2020

fernandopartridge said:
Who'd have thought it, self employed tradesmen being busy yet not reflected in any official figures!

Sssshhhh! There's a frequent poster on here who works for the tax office!

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