The remaining fixtures - can we stay up? (2 Viewers)

Paxman II · Jan 5, 2012

Sat 14 15:00 A Derby County FLC
Sat 21 15:00 H Middlesbrough FLC
Tue 31 19:45 A Blackpool FLC
February
Sat 4 15:00 H Ipswich Town FLC
Sat 11 15:00 A Reading FLC
Tue 14 19:45 H Leeds United FLC
Sat 18 15:00 A Nottm Forest FLC
Sat 25 15:00 H Barnsley FLC
March
Sat 3 15:00 A Leicester City FLC
Tue 6 19:45 H Crystal Palace FLC
Sat 10 12:30 H Birmingham FLC
Sat 17 15:00 A Watford FLC
Wed 21 19:45 A Cardiff City FLC
Sat 24 15:00 H Portsmouth FLC
Sat 31 15:00 A Hull City FLC
April
Sat 7 15:00 H Peterborough FLC
Mon 9 15:00 A Bristol City FLC
Sat 14 15:00 A Burnley FLC
Tue 17 19:45 H Millwall FLC
Sat 21 15:00 H Doncaster FLC
Sat 28 12:30 A Southampton FLC

I have probably been over kind with my personal points haul estimation of 27 points from all remaining fixtures giving us a tally of 46.
If I'm honest regardless of what players we bring in (if any) the outlook is bleak.
A change of ownership, some emergency large funds with a change of coaching and management may be the only way we will be saved from the drop.
We really need to win just about all remaining home games and pick up points away from home - form that requires us to have a complete turnaround (a game of two halves is now a game of two halves of a season)
I'm normally very positive about our club but realistically unless we find tremendous form I fear for my club.

Can anyone see more than 27 points?

gally9 · Jan 5, 2012

I cant even see 27 pts mate.. be interesting to see where you see us picking them up.

ICHAN · Jan 5, 2012

It is bleak but I can not tell myself we are down until it is mathmatically impossible for us not to survive.

ajsccfc · Jan 5, 2012

I look at it more as a case of catching the teams around us rather than the points total. Two wins against teams lower down in the last week or so suggest we're somewhat capable, but a lot depends on this transfer window for one thing.

I think we could, but I certainly wouldn't put any money on it.

skybluesam66 · Jan 5, 2012

honestly think 40 will be a struggle

Sell juke and 30 may be a struggle with the firepower we will be left with

kg82 · Jan 5, 2012

I won't say it can't be done until it's mathematically impossible to do so. Until that point I'm hoping that, for the good of us all, we do it!

Paxman II · Jan 5, 2012

The theory is that current form of clubs and /or their position in the league now and where they will probably progress over the remaining season is a key element. For example the Boro' are and will be chasing promotion, whereas Palace will likely fade and Pompey be much of a muchness. That much is predictable and provided we improve then some estimate can be gleamed. Don't forget the unpredictable too but that tends to swing both ways.
Of course as with all predictions - if we had a crystal ball we would all be millionaires or be clear leaders in the prediction league with a 100% record!
Here's my current prediction which I keep changing every time I go over it again! How about you?

Sat 14 15:00 A Derby County FLC L
Sat 21 15:00 H Middlesbrough FLC D
Tue 31 19:45 A Blackpool FLC L
February
Sat 4 15:00 H Ipswich Town FLC W
Sat 11 15:00 A Reading FLC L
Tue 14 19:45 H Leeds United FLC D
Sat 18 15:00 A Nottm Forest FLC D
Sat 25 15:00 H Barnsley FLC W
March
Sat 3 15:00 A Leicester City FLC L
Tue 6 19:45 H Crystal Palace FLC W
Sat 10 12:30 H Birmingham FLC D
Sat 17 15:00 A Watford FLC W
Wed 21 19:45 A Cardiff City FLC D
Sat 24 15:00 H Portsmouth FLC D
Sat 31 15:00 A Hull City FLC L
April
Sat 7 15:00 H Peterborough FLC W
Mon 9 15:00 A Bristol City FLC D
Sat 14 15:00 A Burnley FLC L
Tue 17 19:45 H Millwall FLC W
Sat 21 15:00 H Doncaster FLC W
Sat 28 12:30 A Southampton FLC L

covcity4life · Jan 5, 2012

i got 26,most from home points

were gonna need to win a few away..and even home wins are gonna be hard to get

Tankie · Jan 5, 2012

Can we stop up" Mathmaticaly Yes, Probably, No, Hopefully yes, "I could go on."
I actually think it all depends on a Takeover if we are to avoid the drop this time, and even now, it may be too late for that to have any effect.
If sisu Hang arround, i think were sunk, if they go and emergency funds and players are made availiable, by our new owners, then there may be just a glimmer of hope.
What I can't understand is, that although sisu are losing money "big time" they don;t appear to be jumping at the chance to get out, but perhaps things will get clearer over the next week or so, lets hope they get out and give us a chance of survival.

Gray · Jan 5, 2012

its ok just one BBC predictor and we finish 4th bottom, so dont worry folks,

skablue · Jan 5, 2012

I think this season may need a record number of points to survive due to points teams above us have accummulated in first half of season, in 07/08 Leicester went down with 52 pts we managed 53 and finished 21st. If this worst case scenario came true we would need 34 - 35 points from the remaining games. On the other hand 3 teams could go into freefall and as little as 43 pts has seen teams survive on 3 occassions in last 10 years, although that did include the season Leeds had 10pts deducted. Based on the stats over the last 10 years I would say we have a 20% chance of staying up on 43 - 46 pts, a 50% chance on 47pts, a 60% chance 48-49 pts, 80% on 50-51 pts, 90% on 52pts and almost 100% on 53pts.

rickyCCFC · Jan 5, 2012

Sat 14 15:00 A Derby County FLC D - 1pts
Sat 21 15:00 H Middlesbrough FLC W - 4pts
Tue 31 19:45 A Blackpool FLC L - 4pts
February
Sat 4 15:00 H Ipswich Town FLC W - 7pts
Sat 11 15:00 A Reading FLC L - 7pts
Tue 14 19:45 H Leeds United FLC D - 8pts
Sat 18 15:00 A Nottm Forest FLC W -11pts
Sat 25 15:00 H Barnsley FLC W -14pts
March
Sat 3 15:00 A Leicester City FLC L -14pts
Tue 6 19:45 H Crystal Palace FLC W -17pts
Sat 10 12:30 H Birmingham FLC L -17pts
Sat 17 15:00 A Watford FLC W -20pts
Wed 21 19:45 A Cardiff City FLC L -20pts
Sat 24 15:00 H Portsmouth FLC W -23pts
Sat 31 15:00 A Hull City FLC L -23pts
April
Sat 7 15:00 H Peterborough FLC W -26pts
Mon 9 15:00 A Bristol City FLC W -29pts
Sat 14 15:00 A Burnley FLC L -29pts
Tue 17 19:45 H Millwall FLC W -32pts
Sat 21 15:00 H Doncaster FLC D -33pts
Sat 28 12:30 A Southampton FLC L -33pts

coop · Jan 5, 2012

Bristol City were bottom not that long ago now look where they are so we have every chance of staying up.

ccfcway · Jan 5, 2012

so, to confirm, you believe a team bottom of the league will go the rest of the season unbeaten at home, and pick up 10 points on the road ?

:wave::wave::wave:

BurbageSkyBlues · Jan 5, 2012

Just need to focus on getting something out of every game, keep picking away, and create momentum/belief. It's starting to bunch up in the middle, other teams may start to worry about being caught by those above us.

It's over 46 matches, not one or two. Sometimes we are too black and White about our prospects, time to dig deep for some fight!

MatthewWallis · Jan 5, 2012

ccfcway said:
so, to confirm, you believe a team bottom of the league will go the rest of the season unbeaten at home, and pick up 10 points on the road ?

:wave::wave::wave:

This is what I was gonna ask

Paxman II · Jan 5, 2012

Oh I'm optimistic here as anyone but what is required is a turn around that will represent a season of two completely contrasting halves!
Quite whether we can all of a sudden produce top six chasing 'form' in the second half is the 64 million dollar question.

Conventional wisdom says that will not be possible....but this is CCFC right?

Paxman II · Jan 5, 2012

ccfcway said:
so, to confirm, you believe a team bottom of the league will go the rest of the season unbeaten at home, and pick up 10 points on the road ?

:wave::wave::wave:

check that again...

kg82 · Jan 5, 2012

Paxman II said:
Oh I'm optimistic here as anyone but what is required is a turn around that will represent a season of two completely contrasting halves!
Quite whether we can all of a sudden produce top six chasing 'form' in the second half is the 64 million dollar question.

Conventional wisdom says that will not be possible....but this is CCFC right?

Kind of happened last season, just the other way around!

Macca · Jan 5, 2012

erm 17 pts, is that enough??

ccfcway · Jan 5, 2012

Paxman II said:
check that again...

Ah yes,my mistake

a team who is bottom of the league goes the entire 2nd half of the season unbeaten at home apart from one game (where Marlon King gets the winner) and gets 10 points on the road

it looks a much easier task now...

Thanks Paxman

:wave:

bulkingtonskyblues · Jan 5, 2012

pointless thread, down, end of, im more concerned with getting a takeover sorted in time to build to come straight back up

Jack Griffin · Jan 5, 2012

Paxman has found the straws Alan Poole was clutching at in the Coventry Telegraph today..

...then he woke up and it all turned out to be a cruel dream.. we were relegated after all ;-(

Disorganised1 · Jan 5, 2012

I can't see it myself ~ but PUSB

ajsccfc · Jan 5, 2012

bulkingtonskyblues said:
pointless thread, down, end of, im more concerned with getting a takeover sorted in time to build to come straight back up

Oh right. Nobody talk about football any more, got it?

WillieStanley · Jan 5, 2012

Right... Balls out of the bath...

Sat 14 15:00 A Derby County FLC W
Sat 21 15:00 H Middlesbrough FLC L
Tue 31 19:45 A Blackpool FLC L
February
Sat 4 15:00 H Ipswich Town FLC D
Sat 11 15:00 A Reading FLC D
Tue 14 19:45 H Leeds United FLC D
Sat 18 15:00 A Nottm Forest FLC W
Sat 25 15:00 H Barnsley FLC W
March
Sat 3 15:00 A Leicester City FLC D
Tue 6 19:45 H Crystal Palace FLC W
Sat 10 12:30 H Birmingham FLC L
Sat 17 15:00 A Watford FLC W
Wed 21 19:45 A Cardiff City FLC D
Sat 24 15:00 H Portsmouth FLC W
Sat 31 15:00 A Hull City FLC D
April
Sat 7 15:00 H Peterborough FLC W
Mon 9 15:00 A Bristol City FLC D
Sat 14 15:00 A Burnley FLC W
Tue 17 19:45 H Millwall FLC W
Sat 21 15:00 H Doncaster FLC W
Sat 28 12:30 A Southampton FLC W

If we get anything less than that... well...

Ok, I'll look at it again!

ccfcway · Jan 5, 2012

Sat 14 15:00 A Derby County FLC L
Sat 21 15:00 H Middlesbrough FLC L
Tue 31 19:45 A Blackpool FLC L
February
Sat 4 15:00 H Ipswich Town FLC D
Sat 11 15:00 A Reading FLC L
Tue 14 19:45 H Leeds United FLC D
Sat 18 15:00 A Nottm Forest FLC L
Sat 25 15:00 H Barnsley FLC W
March
Sat 3 15:00 A Leicester City FLC L
Tue 6 19:45 H Crystal Palace FLC D
Sat 10 12:30 H Birmingham FLC L
Sat 17 15:00 A Watford FLC L
Wed 21 19:45 A Cardiff City FLC L
Sat 24 15:00 H Portsmouth FLC W
Sat 31 15:00 A Hull City FLC L
April
Sat 7 15:00 H Peterborough FLC W
Mon 9 15:00 A Bristol City FLC L
Sat 14 15:00 A Burnley FLC L
Tue 17 19:45 H Millwall FLC D
Sat 21 15:00 H Doncaster FLC W
Sat 28 12:30 A Southampton FLC L

16 more points !

ajsccfc · Jan 5, 2012

Why is nobody predicting our play-off semifinal ties? Honestly, you people.

craigus12 · Jan 5, 2012

willie you gotta be on the wind up with those predictions

BackRoomRummermill · Jan 5, 2012

Never say never ........ I really hope we do.

Whatever anyone says we are still in this league until it is mathematically impossible for us to survive.

Grendel · Jan 5, 2012

Some peoples optimism amazes me. Never been afflicted by it myself. 1 away win under Thorn, 19 points over half way in and worst goalscoring record in league football. No chance. Dead men walking is what we are.

ccfcway · Apr 7, 2012

Just in case anyone is too depressed tonight, thought I would bump this.

We are doing a lot better than most on this thread, me included thought

Have a great evening all

BackRoomRummermill · Apr 7, 2012

Yep , we can still stay up

The remaining fixtures - can we stay up? (2 Viewers)

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