Will NOPM starve SISU out? I don't think it will (1 Viewer)

depends what he means. if he means they have the money in the bank to cover everything even with zero income then you're right but I suspect he just means they've submitted a budget and that would more than likely be based on the attendances he quoted at the fans forum which are now looking to be a massive over estimate.

chiefdave said:

depends what he means. if he means they have the money in the bank to cover everything even with zero income then you're right but I suspect he just means they've submitted a budget and that would more than likely be based on the attendances he quoted at the fans forum which are now looking to be a massive over estimate.

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The difference between an average of 2K and 4K is not that significant in the scheme of things (the revenue difference might feasibly be eclipsed by the proceeds of one FA Cup tie at OT, the Emirates or somewhere similar).

The fact they don't have to pay 600K to ACL has probably eased things a little, that's the equivalent to about 2500 season tickets.

Soothsayer Timmy always tells the truth

Sisu dont have cash themselves, as a company they have made losses for the last number of years - so clearly they are in no position to cover revenue losses.
In terms of their investors in this marvelous venture, I guess they were promised potential monies based on a Ricoh purchase. That aint gonna happen, so how will the investors get anything back? the loss of revenue can only damage their prospects. Sisu are now just losing money with no grain of hope -

So NOPM on balance is likely to be useful leverage, and hasten the sale of CCFC.

...but in any case this is now a moral issue of not going to Sixfields and not supporting Sisu who have all but destroyed our club.

Its not just match day stuff its also merchandise etc. We were losing money before so whatever saving they made dragging us to sixfields will be lost to the reduced crowds. Fisher based his projection on 6 k crowds, he will be 50 k plus short for every home game. Over 5 years that will hurt, it will also have investors asking questions

didnt fisher about two weeks ago he would anouce the new sponsorship for the kits in 10 days time more lost revenue ??:thinking about:

Sub said:

didnt fisher about two weeks ago he would anouce the new sponsorship for the kits in 10 days time more lost revenue ??:thinking about:

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he's got all the details ready to go, just has to find the folder with it in. must have filed it with the details of the new stadium he was announcing 2 weeks after the fan forums.

shoesmith81 said:

On the CWR interview Tim Fisher said that they have funded the club for 3 years and proven this to the FA, which effectively says that he doesn't need fans to attend Sixfields.

Will NOPM starve SISU out? It will mean SISU will have to dig deeper into their pockets.

I don't think SISU will be going anytime soon.

What effect do you think the NOPM will have?

Thoughts?

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No he didn't say that, he said they have confirmed to the fl that they have committed to fund the club for 3 years. which in effect is meaningless. They have told the fl (and saying it isn't the same as doing it) that whatever the losses are while we are at northampton sisu will fund those losses.

so nopm will mean sisu are losing more and more money each week which will make funding the losses less and less appealing and make them more likely to leave.

This woukd have been one of the obvious risks when submitting any business plan to the SISU board or investors as it was going to be a likely scenario. It has been clear from his dealings with the fans that we are not needed to make this plan work, if we go its a bonus. I suppose the questions are around whether the fans can hold out especially given games like sunday, he said we would be back in three games i say no chance!

We have momentum in the protests now so it is vital we do this in the right way and at the right time. The protest through town, the charity event attendance were excellent and more people will follow if we keep it up.

theferret said:

The difference between an average of 2K and 4K is not that significant in the scheme of things (the revenue difference might feasibly be eclipsed by the proceeds of one FA Cup tie at OT, the Emirates or somewhere similar).

The fact they don't have to pay 600K to ACL has probably eased things a little, that's the equivalent to about 2500 season tickets.

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Well, it's not saved them anything on last years budget

@theferret - what £600k ? if you mean for the CVA well they have paid the money to the administrator and wont be getting a refund. It will be used to pay administrators/ liquidators fees.

Not sure what they saved £150k rent not paid to ACL but lost out on ticket income F&Bs etc or at Sixfields paying rental say £100k to £150k much lower ticket sales and getting a share of the other incomes (which wont amount to much)........... but apparently they are playing a longer term game.....................

A worry of mine - what goes first if we starve Sisu of our money? We know it won't be Sisu - they have the club as an asset of some value, so it wouldn't be in their interest to sell on the cheap after allegedly 'investing' quite a lot of money towards it - but it might be the staff and the players. I would like good players and to build on what we've got - that's not going to happen if the owners have no money, and we'll lose the few assets we do have. This is just a worry, I don't want the fans to cut off their nose to spite their faces.

Will the NOPM campaign starve SISU out?That is the fundamental question being posed here and one which I like many have angst over long and hard before coming to our respective decisions about whether to get on the Northampton train or not.

>By avoiding Six fields in protest, restriction in revenue stream could ultimately kill the football club- the thing we all hold so dear.
>By supporting the team you directly support SISU and thus sustain Coventry City out of Coventry- the thing WE ALL object to irrespective of favour.

Those are the basics of the head V's heart decision are they not?

For me- I rationalised the former into the position I have adopted thus:
If the club as we know it does die based on the NOPM campaign then so be it- the last thing I want after 35 years+ support of course, but.....we cannot allow this regime, hell bent on Ricoh acquisition at all costs to mandate our existence outside of our city. Morally they are bankrupt- hopefully financially to. And yes I hear all the ACL accusers and am not ignorant enough to deny that ACL aren't in part responsible, but as the evidence unravels I have concluded that on the balance of probability(for that is all we the lay supporter feed from) it is SISU that are the primary aggressor and for me that led to the conclusion that I couldn't support their regime any longer. We will not attend CCFC home matches for as long as they are, as they are now, holding the fans and other stakeholders to ransom.

Back to the question- do I think it will work- Not sure? Do we have an option- No- sadly none.

You have to nail your colours to the mast every now and then in life- heres one such time- Bullies get their just deserts in the end- pray that end comes quickly.
:blue:

What I don't fully understand is how will starving them of money gurantee they'll sell up, couldn't SISU/Otium just go "Ah feck it" and just liquidate us anyway and say transfer any debts to another SISU related business??

oldskyblue58 said:

@theferret - what £600k ? if you mean for the CVA well they have paid the money to the administrator and wont be getting a refund. It will be used to pay administrators/ liquidators fees.

Not sure what they saved £150k rent not paid to ACL but lost out on ticket income F&Bs etc or at Sixfields paying rental say £100k to £150k much lower ticket sales and getting a share of the other incomes (which wont amount to much)........... but apparently they are playing a longer term game.....................

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Your knowledge of these matters is clearly better than mine, but I'm struggling to believe that £600,000 earmarked for a creditor is then ALL retained to pay the fees for liquidation. It would be suspiciously convenient if the fees happened to match exactly the amount offered to a particular creditor as part of a CVA. So, if in a different scenario, a creditor rejected an offer of £10 million, the administrator would retain all that too? Doesn't ring true, but I am willing to be corrected.

SuperCov said:

What I don't fully understand is how will starving them of money guarantee they'll sell up, couldn't SISU/Otium just go "Ah feck it" and just liquidate us anyway and say transfer any debts to another SISU related business??

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Yes they could as I understand it- and I'm desperately worried about that possibility.. but the option is?.. sustain their less than credible project/business plan to return the club to an unidentified area outside of the city.. its not then Coventry City anyway is it?

SuperCov said:

What I don't fully understand is how will starving them of money gurantee they'll sell up, couldn't SISU/Otium just go "Ah feck it" and just liquidate us anyway and say transfer any debts to another SISU related business??

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they've already done that with Ltd and the FL have now set a precedent by allowing the share to be issued to a new company rather than one which buys the old company out of administration. So lets say SISU liquidate someone such as PH4 could say I'll buy the assets from liquidation (player contracts etc) and give me the golden share. Sure it would be another 10 point hit but we'd be rid of SISU. Of course nothing to say the FL won't use their make it up as we go along method of dealing with things but given the volume of correspondence they've had about Otium not being suitable and other owners being preferable it would be very hard to justify not being equally as 'soft' on any new owner coming in.

theferret said:

Your knowledge of these matters is clearly better than mine, but I'm struggling to believe that £600,000 earmarked for a creditor is then ALL retained to pay the fees for liquidation. It would be suspiciously convenient if the fees happened to match exactly the amount offered to a particular creditor as part of a CVA. So, if in a different scenario, a creditor rejected an offer of £10 million, the administrator would retain all that too? Doesn't ring true, but I am willing to be corrected.

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the money was earmarked to ACL only if the CVA were to be accepted. That is 600k out of the £1.5m that otium paid in to the Appleton Client account. They got £600k largely due the "loan" write offs by SISU related companies, that wont happen now either. As I understand it the balance was to settle the administration fees (Appleton, Solicitors, Barristers, PR firms etc) by middle of May they had hit £350k + (in 2months). So likely a much higher figure now particularly as the legal arguments really took off after the first creditors statement. Add to that the costs that will now be necessary for the liquidation. It is going to be a big figure much of it under written by SISU. Anything left will be split amongst all the creditors of CCFC (SISU related being the biggest).... wont be lots left and if there was most would go back to SISU

Had Otium received £10m then the principle is the same. After Administrator/liquidator paid off then what is left is split between all the creditors

I think it will get rid of them and think its already starting to ave an effect.

oldskyblue58 said:

the money was earmarked to ACL only if the CVA were to be accepted. That is 600k out of the £1.5m that otium paid in to the Appleton Client account. They got £600k largely due the "loan" write offs by SISU related companies, that wont happen now either. As I understand it the balance was to settle the administration fees (Appleton, Solicitors, Barristers, PR firms etc) by middle of May they had hit £350k + (in 2months). So likely a much higher figure now particularly as the legal arguments really took off after the first creditors statement. Add to that the costs that will now be necessary for the liquidation. It is going to be a big figure much of it under written by SISU. Anything left will be split amongst all the creditors of CCFC (SISU related being the biggest).... wont be lots left and if there was most would go back to SISU

Had Otium received £10m then the principle is the same. After Administrator/liquidator paid off then what is left is split between all the creditors

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Thanks for clearing that up. Those fees are staggering.

up to middle May the administrator report says the rate per hour for appletons firm averages out at £343 per hour. In comparison to the big boy administrators in London then thats cheap but still a huge number in total. Plus the court appointment guarantees they get first cut of the cake

As you say staggering

It will just prolong the agony.
Sisu would have gone by now if they could not stomach it.
They have some wealth behind them that makes this peanuts.
Ie they were willing to loan ACL 14 million, from their funds.

chiefdave said:

they've already done that with Ltd and the FL have now set a precedent by allowing the share to be issued to a new company rather than one which buys the old company out of administration. So lets say SISU liquidate someone such as PH4 could say I'll buy the assets from liquidation (player contracts etc) and give me the golden share. Sure it would be another 10 point hit but we'd be rid of SISU. Of course nothing to say the FL won't use their make it up as we go along method of dealing with things but given the volume of correspondence they've had about Otium not being suitable and other owners being preferable it would be very hard to justify not being equally as 'soft' on any new owner coming in.

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POST OF THE DAY, chiefdave. spot on mate.


I agree wholeheartedly with what you say and I genuinely believe that you've highlighted the light at the end of the tunnel for us.

Otium will fold (soon I believe) because they've got nowhere near enough income to meet overheads. Then comes the critical test for the FL. A test they've already failed twice...'do we grant the golden share to another SISU company?' or more relevantly: 'Does another SISU company pass our own fit and proper test? Clearly the answer to that should have been no last time, but next time, if the FL have been put under enough pressure from fans etc, they should decide that another SISU company is unfit to run this football club. The tests of transparency and filing of accounts should be sufficient grounds for failing the test.

Then in comes PH4 or someone else with a credible offer and its goodbye SISU.

So the two keys are keep up pressure on SISU with NOPM and crucially, massive pressure in the FA with online petitions challenging the 'fit and proper owners' test.

According to their last accounts, SISU had less than £0.5m in the bank - that isn't going fund the club for the rest of the season.

So where is the funding for the next 3 years going to come from? From their mythical investors, the same make-believe capitalists that are going to fund the building of a new stadium?

Get real, there is no money for a new stadium and there is no money to fund the club for the next 3 years. SISU and Fisher are clinging to the last shreds of hope that enough mugs will attend Sixfields for them to keep their heads above water until, in the words of Mr Micawber "Something will turn up".

A tale of two stadia

Why have we moved to Sixfields, is it the result of a petty jealousy over the council's nice stadium that they refuse to sell the Freehold at a peppercorn price or sound business sense from our club's owners? I think it's the former not the latter and will now attempt to show why the business case for the move to Sixfields doesn't add up.

In retail as is probably true in most if not all businesses you want to make the most money that you can. You therefore try to maximise the potential of your sales by placing the best selling products at eye level in prominent place. You don't stick them on a bottom shelf where your customers will find it hard to locate them. Yes some people will have a look for the product if it isn't immediately obvious where it is but many won't. You also miss out on those customers who just decide to make an impulse purchase when they see the item. If these are your biggest sellers then you want to maximise the number of potential purchasers not reduce them. More sales are generated this way and you find this in other business areas such as television. This is why Eastenders and Coronation Street aren't shown at 3pm in the afternoon, they're shown during Primetime. The reason is not enough customers or viewers can watch at 3pm, they're mostly out at work. The people that are watching television during the day are also not the same people as watch at night. The image of the product also affects sales and to improve the image you have advertising the better the advertising of the product normally the better the sales.

So what does this have to do with us Sky Blue supporters? Well we're the customers in this case and the club is the retailer, SISU being the owner of the shop. Despite all that I've learned and know about selling I still can't find a good business case for our move to Sixfields. The maximum number of customers that Sixfields can accommodate is less than our home at the Ricoh. From the fans who do travel the only guaranteed revenue that they generate is ticket sales. Now the number of customers who are prepared to travel to watch the team is inversely proportional to the distance they have to travel. Coventry would be the eye level shelf in a prime position, in the retail context and Northampton the back of the shop close to the floor.

So we're already down on numbers of customers and thus potential guaranteed revenue, look at season tickets for example. Now Tim has said that it's a better deal for us at Sixfields because of the cheaper rent and extra revenue streams we're getting from the deal with Mr Cardoza. However most people have a budget for entertainment just as they do for food, clothes, utilities etc. The extra cost of travel to Sixfields would reduce what people have to spend at the stadium when they get there. So to cover for this extra expense, SISU reduced the ticket prices in an attempt to make the move have less of an impact financially on supporters.

However even if that means that the cost of a ticket and travel is the same as a ticket to the Ricoh it doesn't increase the amount they have to spend. All it does is reduce the guaranteed revenue that SISU get in ticket sales thanks to the reduction in price. There is no guarantee that those of us fans who choose to travel to Sixfields will spend any money in the stadium. Apparently the burger van outside does better food than inside and those travelling supporters may choose to purchase their food and beverages there. No one is forcing you to use the official coach or the official car park so no guarantees of revenue there and the coach costs the same to hire if it's full or empty. Moving to Sixfields also reduces the number of impromptu walk up supporters who decide at 2:30pm they fancy watching the match rather than clothes shopping with the other half. Advertising is actually done by the team and that isn't something that the club/SISU can affect except by the purchase of players and choice of manager.

The only thing that makes sense for the move to Sixfields is if SISU are keen still to distress ACL further by reducing their income. There has been no attempt to demonstrate a willingness to build a new ground and after the comments this morning I believe now more than ever that there never will be. There isn't a sound financial case for the move as far as I can see and in my opinion leaves us worse off financially or SISU should they continue to fund the losses. I would however be interested if anyone has any thoughts that are different from this.

Oh and whether or not it starves them out I'm not giving them my money.

simple_simon said:

I think it will get rid of them and think its already starting to ave an effect.

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I agree with this. If the NOPM campaign holds firm then SISU will be forced to go. No business is sustainable without customers. The NOPM campaign should include any new stadium.

We should all think about what Fisher has said. SISU have agreed to fund the club for the next three years. This means they'll cover losses. They seem to be on target to lose 80% of gate revenue if things stay as they are. These losses will be millions.

Contrast these huge losses with the £500k or so they needed to invest to keep us in the Championship? They claimed no money at that time but now have millions to support the club away from Coventry? Relegation from the Championship was part of a plan to create the rent dispute to distress ACL and get their hands on the Ricoh. Why else would wealthy owners refuse funds to keep us in the Championship? This will tell you there is a long term game of Chicken. SISU have lost the first two rounds with the defeat in the judicial review and with the number of supporters at Sixfields. Their fall-back position will be to build a low cost stadium at some point after year three of the Northampton exile that will open at the last possible minute. They can string people along with planning applications and positive talk by engaging contractors on long term bonuses if the stadium is ever built. Fisher has already started 'talking up' by suggesting they're already engaged consultants etc. The contractors engaged will all be on a 'contingency' basis.

Things are starting to collapse around SISU. We're not out of the transfer embargo (as we were promised) we're in special measure because the Football League aren't buying their business plan. Fisher sounded very disheartened on the radio (he sounded tired and disinterested) as he tried a 'positive spin' where there isn't any. Having alienated 95% of regular customers (season ticket holders) he has gone on to lose more than 80% of seat revenues in the first game. SISU won't sustain that. It doesn't look likely that we'll get the 65 points we need to avoid another relegation with the paper thin squad we've got. If we're relegated again SISU's losses will multiply.

NOPM will ultimately win. IMHO before the end of season two things will materially change. SISU's investors are £30m up already. They'll lose another £15m over the next 5 years and have to fund a £30m stadium. In three to five years they'll have a non-league club in nearly £80m of debt. Not even SISU can fund that.

NOPM, keep the faith!

James Smith said:

Oh and whether or not it starves them out I'm not giving them my money.

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Ditto.

Oh by the way, this 3 years idea is as optimistic as Timmy's nonsensical 3000 crowd projection, in other words it is complete baloney, even if they do go ahead with a plan to build a stadium it will take them 5-7 years with a following wind!

ohitsaidwalker king power said:

Will the NOPM campaign starve SISU out?That is the fundamental question being posed here and one which I like many have angst over long and hard before coming to our respective decisions about whether to get on the Northampton train or not.

>By avoiding Six fields in protest, restriction in revenue stream could ultimately kill the football club- the thing we all hold so dear.
>By supporting the team you directly support SISU and thus sustain Coventry City out of Coventry- the thing WE ALL object to irrespective of favour.

Those are the basics of the head V's heart decision are they not?

For me- I rationalised the former into the position I have adopted thus:
If the club as we know it does die based on the NOPM campaign then so be it- the last thing I want after 35 years+ support of course, but.....we cannot allow this regime, hell bent on Ricoh acquisition at all costs to mandate our existence outside of our city. Morally they are bankrupt- hopefully financially to. And yes I hear all the ACL accusers and am not ignorant enough to deny that ACL aren't in part responsible, but as the evidence unravels I have concluded that on the balance of probability(for that is all we the lay supporter feed from) it is SISU that are the primary aggressor and for me that led to the conclusion that I couldn't support their regime any longer. We will not attend CCFC home matches for as long as they are, as they are now, holding the fans and other stakeholders to ransom.

Back to the question- do I think it will work- Not sure? Do we have an option- No- sadly none.

You have to nail your colours to the mast every now and then in life- heres one such time- Bullies get their just deserts in the end- pray that end comes quickly.
:blue:

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Brilliant.

The Prefect said:

Contrast these huge losses with the £500k or so they needed to invest to keep us in the Championship? They claimed no money at that time but now have millions to support the club away from Coventry? Relegation from the Championship was part of a plan to create the rent dispute to distress ACL and get their hands on the Ricoh. Why else would wealthy owners refuse funds to keep us in the Championship? This will tell you there is a long term game of Chicken.

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I'll get in there first before Grendel: explains the Thorn appointment!

But it isn't all about NOPM.

NOPM will put pressure on SISU, but the endgame would happen quite quickly if ACL made a statement saying that they wouldn't sell to SISU whatever and will not enter negotiations on the matter. Their investors can continue to put up with making losses. Whilst there is a pot of gold to aim at they have a reason to. But once there is no pot of gold to aim at it becomes throwing good money after bad.

They have already seen that ACL have given them what they have wanted. But after wanting it and having it offered to them they turned it down. All they want now is what they have wanted from the start. The Ricoh for peanuts. This must not happen. We have the chance to recover from whatever SISU do to us if we still have somewhere to play. A place for a better investor to invest in. A place for us to call home. If they get their hands on it? I don't think it would ever belong to our club if they did. We would never get a 113m stadium again. Whatever we would get wound take a massive investment by someone. Will we still be a league club by then?

So Joy has had another court judgement made against her where the judge has made a comment stating that they have been uneconomical with the truth. Yet some point the finger at others. Maybe ACL could have reduced the rent earlier. But as we can see it wouldn't have gone with SISU's long term plan. They don't care about us. They don't care about our club. All they care about is money. That is what they exist for. They won't get any more of mine. My conscience will be clean.

rondog1973 said:

Brilliant.

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Thanks..took me a little while to get onside to the NOPM campaign.. but I'm there now. No regrets