XG (2 Viewers)

[Houchens Head]

I'm an old fart of nearly 72, and definately old school. So can someone explain what the f**k is xg and how is it supposed to aid statistics?
Just seems pointless to me.

 

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[cornoccfc]

Expected goals.

0.95 is missing an open net, from 3 yards.

Interesting stat, but must be looked at in context.

For example last night, could argue after WBA went one up, they didn't particularly chase a second- hence our Xg must have reached 2+

 

[Hobo]

It's bollocks.

 

[Evo1883]

Expected goals.

0.95 is missing an open net, from 3 yards.

Interesting stat, but must be looked at in context.

For example last night, could argue after WBA went one up, they didn't particularly chase a second- hence our Xg must have reached 2+

Your xg would only reach 2 if you created good enough chances to make it reach 2 .
Basically west brom wouldn't have been comfortable surrendering the chances they did

 

[skybluecam]

I'm an old fart of nearly 72, and definately old school. So can someone explain what the f**k is xg and how is it supposed to aid statistics?
Just seems pointless to me.

For every shot taken in a match, it is compared to a historical dataset of previous shots. If let’s say 20% of similar shots actually went in, that would give that particular shot an xG value of 0.2.

We all know the final score of a match is often not representative of how the game actually went, xG aims to give a more detailed insight into the chances that each team created.

Obviously there are flaws, and context is important. But I think it’s pretty useful.

 

[stupot07]

It's bollocks.

Yep, it's bollocks.

 

[fernandopartridge]

It's just a statistical representation of how well a team is perceived to have played. If your team makes chances most people would say they "played well" and xG just reflects the underlying stats behind that.

 

[fernandopartridge]

From last season's Championship 4 of the 6 teams with the highest xG for finished in the top 6. West Brom outperformed their xG rank (11) as did Norwich (8). Cov underperformed our xG rank (7).

In the xG against again 4 of the top 6 had the lowest xG against.

It's all obviously just coincidence though.

 

[Evo1883]

From last season's Championship 4 of the 6 teams with the highest xG for finished in the top 6. West Brom outperformed their xG rank (11) as did Norwich (8). Cov underperformed our xG rank (7).

In the xG against again 4 of the top 6 had the lowest xG against.

It's all obviously just coincidence though.

It's bollocks

 

[PVA]

It's bollocks.

So much bollocks that the best teams in the world pay huge amounts of money to study it in unbelievable detail?

 

[False9]

It's unbelievable how much we are underperforming it this season

 

[MusicDating]

You know when you used to come away from a game thinking 'how did we not win that?!' or (more rarely) 'we got away with one there!!'. The xG and xGa is an attempt to statistically verify that.

I quite like the explanation on this site -

Expected goals: explained - Coaches' Voice

What are expected goals or xG, how are they calculated, and what does a player or team's xG tell us about how they are playing?

learning.coachesvoice.com

 

[Tommo1993]

It is a really pointless “stat”, I wouldn’t worry about it.

 

[Philosoraptor]

xG in general is like putting forward Die Hard or Die Hard II as the only options for the best Christmas movie of all time.

I know which one I would choose...

 

[Jamesimus]

I love the way people have this explained to them, numerous times, in many many different ways and they still post “iTs shiTe” etc.

Imagine having that level of mental comprehension, then posting opinions on stuff in the match day threads. Love SBT!

 

[Jamesimus]

It is a really pointless “stat”, I wouldn’t worry about it.

It definitely is a pointless stat for a lot of people it seems, I agree on that!

 

[TomRad85]

I love the way people have this explained to them, numerous times, in many many different ways and they still post “iTs shiTe” etc.

Imagine having that level of mental comprehension, then posting opinions on stuff in the match day threads. Love SBT!

It's definitely a useful stat but I don't agree that underperforming it for a long period of time counts as bad luck like some do. Means we're doing things right for sure but obviously failing at the most crucial part of the game.

 

[Jamesimus]

It's definitely a useful stat but I don't agree that underperforming it for a long period of time counts as bad luck like some do. Means we're doing things right for sure but obviously failing at the most crucial part of the game.

Well that’s the thing, it’s a useful stat!

For us I think it shows underperforming forwards in front of goal, lack of composure etc. There is always going to be an element of luck thrown in there of course, but I don’t think we’re more unlucky than other teams.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

It's definitely a useful stat but I don't agree that underperforming it for a long period of time counts as bad luck like some do. Means we're doing things right for sure but obviously failing at the most crucial part of the game.

Who in our team yesterday scores Grant’s chance? None of them, which is why the opposition will continue to score nearly every shot on target while we require 15-20.

A high % of our goals seem to come from the times where endlessly crossing it in the box pays off. We don’t score many other ways.

 

[shmmeee]

It's definitely a useful stat but I don't agree that underperforming it for a long period of time counts as bad luck like some do. Means we're doing things right for sure but obviously failing at the most crucial part of the game.

It show you where you’re going wrong to some extent. How many chances and of what quality are you creating or conceding.

So much of our issues are confidence it seems. Scared to pass quickly, scared to make a run, scared to try a difficult pass, scared to take a shot, scared to take a man on. Either that or we are unique in having a squad at this level that can’t do anything but a five yard pass in front of the opposition.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

It's unbelievable how much we are underperforming it this season

The goals we concede are just criminally soft. The latest of many this season was WBA’s second last night.

If we don’t concede that goal, there’s every chance we rescue a goal and laud the team for a positive performance and result. But no, we gift wrap far too many soft goals and it’s sickening to watch.

 

[quinn1971]

Basically if we scored from half of our chances the same as everyone does against us we’d be 3rd in the league

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Basically if we scored from half of our chances the same as everyone does against us we’d be 3rd in the league

xG doesn’t take game state into account and because we spend so long chasing games, it will have the effect of skewing our xG upwards and xgA downwards.

We don’t need xG / xgA stats to see just how poor our defending is at times. This is something FL really needs to address. I don’t trust Lati nor Binks so the only person left is Kitching.

I’d happy watch dross football if it meant us winning games 1-0.

 

[shmmeee]

xG doesn’t take game state into account and because we spend so long chasing games, it will have the effect of skewing are xG upwards and xgA downwards.

We don’t need xG / xgA stats to see just how poor our defending is at times. This is something FL really needs to address. I don’t trust Lati nor Binks so the only person left is Kitching.

I’d happy watch dross football if it meant us winning games 1-0.

Are we unique in chasing games though?

 

[quinn1971]

xG doesn’t take game state into account and because we spend so long chasing games, it will have the effect of skewing are xG upwards and xgA downwards.

We don’t need xG / xgA stats to see just how poor our defending is at times. This is something FL really needs to address. I don’t trust Lati nor Binks so the only person left is Kitching.

I’d happy watch dross football if it meant us winning games 1-0.

same as just start winning a few

 

[Frostie]

Are we unique in chasing games though?

No, of course not. You can be creative with the data too, like this example: Removing the 4 biggest outliers for xG & xGA. Still paints a very similar picture.

 

[hill83]

I get it. I understand it. But I hate it.

 

[robbiekeane]

It's definitely a useful stat but I don't agree that underperforming it for a long period of time counts as bad luck like some do.

i don’t think anyone is saying it just means we’re unlucky. I think it just shows when you are creating chances that on average should be scored

 

[CovValleyBoy]

xG doesn’t take game state into account and because we spend so long chasing games, it will have the effect of skewing are xG upwards and xgA downwards.

We don’t need xG / xgA stats to see just how poor our defending is at times. This is something FL really needs to address. I don’t trust Lati nor Binks so the only person left is Kitching.

I’d happy watch dross football if it meant us winning games 1-0.

I'll never get over him deliberately smashing the ball into the roof of our net at the family stand end.

 

[CovValleyBoy]

I'll never get over him deliberately smashing the ball into the roof of our net at the family stand end.

Cmon has anyone ever seen an own goal like that ?

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Are we unique in chasing games though?

Yea because we’ve gone behind in 12 to 14 of our games this season.

 

[shmmeee]

Yea because we’ve gone behind in 12 to 14 of our games this season.

What’s that compared to others?

Genuine Q. Curious how much of an outlier we are in terms of conceding first/conceding early.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

What’s that compared to others?

Genuine Q. Curious how much of an outlier we are in terms of conceding first/conceding early.

Only Hull and Plymouth have conceded first more often than us. When we score first, we tend to do well!

Championship scored / conceded first

English Championship stats

www.soccerstats.com

 

[MusicDating]

These two stats on the BBC Hull preview are pretty bonkers. 3 more home games to go yet as well -

• Coventry have conceded 32 home league goals in 2024, their most since 2015 (also 32), last conceding more in 2013 (38).
• Their average goals conceded per game on home soil in 2024 is their worst (1.68) since their first ever year in the English Football League in 1919 (1.73 per game).

 

[Hobo]

So much bollocks that the best teams in the world pay huge amounts of money to study it in unbelievable detail?

Yes but they contextualise it. As you say study it with the benefit of the details rather than just band an xg figure randomly about.

Perhaps you would prefer to scrap the traditional league table and have an xg table instead?