The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (30 Viewers)

[stupot07]

I must say, I've stayed out of this thread. I don't think any side has put forward convincing arguments, and I still feel there is a lack of facts and information to help voters decide.

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[chiefdave]

I must say, I've stayed out of this thread. I don't think any side has put forward convincing arguments, and I still feel there is a lack of facts and information to help voters decide.

Best site for factual information is fullfact.org, not just for the EU for politics in general. They fact check, and list sources, PMQs, Question Time etc.

 

[mrtrench]

I must say, I've stayed out of this thread. I don't think any side has put forward convincing arguments, and I still feel there is a lack of facts and information to help voters decide.

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The problem is that there are few facts - we just have to weigh up the probabilities and take a punt. This is a vote for the long term. I just read an article however which points out that if we remain it may lead to a huge vote for UKIP in 2020 - I doubt they could get enough to govern but could they get enough to push through leave anyway with the support from Tory & Labour EUphobes?

 

[Otis]

This is the problem with in general with a lot of people on here who are entrenched in their views and don't even want to consider the alternative viewpoint.

Apologies for fiddling with your post, but if the shoe fits!

 

[SIR ERNIE]

Best site for factual information is fullfact.org, not just for the EU for politics in general. They fact check, and list sources, PMQs, Question Time etc.

Full Fact are anything but independent. Suggest you research and you'll find they too have a clear agenda.

 

[NorthernWisdom]

Full Fact are anything but independent. Suggest you research and you'll find they too have a clear agenda.

They discredit a load of tripe that's reported as fact however. Sure you'd agree with that?

 

[NorthernWisdom]

I just read an article however which points out that if we remain it may lead to a huge vote for UKIP in 2020

I can't see that particularly. They have a comical ability to shoot themselves in the foot once you get past the top layer.

I do think (as a left leaning voter) this whole referendum has been marred by it being a Conservative v Conservative focus however. I've wanted to see dynamic left-influenced arguments for both leav an remain. There is, after all, a philosophical argument behind leave that doesn't have to go near immigration or, even, the economy... but nobody seems to have wanted to make it.

 

[tisza]

"Are we going to choose Nigel Farage's vision - one which takes Britain backwards; divides rather than unites; and questions the motives of anyone who takes a different view," Mr Cameron wrote.

"Or will we, instead, choose the tolerant, liberal Britain; a country that doesn't blame its problems on other groups of people; one that doesn't pine for the past, but looks to the future with hope, optimism and confidence? I think the answer will determine what our country feels like for a very long time."

So is the PM saying that without EU membership the country under his Govt would naturally be intolerant & illiberal? If there is a Brexit his party would still be in Govt until the next election. Is he admitting he can't run our country without European help?
If we leave the EU Farage isn't going to take control it would still be the same main political parties & choices we've always had.
How about our leaders (political & business etc,.) telling us we would be better off in the EU but if we left they would still be good enough to carry the country forward? If they can't then we have the wrong people running the country anyway.

 

[mrtrench]

I can't see that particularly. They have a comical ability to shoot themselves in the foot once you get past the top layer.

I do think (as a left leaning voter) this whole referendum has been marred by it being a Conservative v Conservative focus however. I've wanted to see dynamic left-influenced arguments for both leav an remain. There is, after all, a philosophical argument behind leave that doesn't have to go near immigration or, even, the economy... but nobody seems to have wanted to make it.

I'm a centralist voter - I make my own mind up on every issue and then switch my vote depending on which party is closest to what would be best for the country at that time. I think there are centralist reasons on both sides and I think it boils down to whether you think that the EU can create a benevolent single "country" with wealth and population equally shared or not, because I'm under no doubt that this is what is being attempted. Other factors I've considered is how long it would take to get there; how much pain there will be during the journey and if that pain would cause unrest and disintegration before it got there.

The economy has to be the main concern of everyone IMO - because without a good economy we can't do anything. If you don't like thinking about the impact on the UK and Germany of mass immigration then think about the impact on Poland et al from mass emigration.

 

[NorthernWisdom]

It's the simplistic arguments on the economy (my problem with elections too - I don't care if I'm £500 better off tomorrow if it stuffs the entire economy for years to come) and the sensationalist merging if economic migrants, refugees, and bad people.

That, then, as nobody wants to make the other arguments, means it's the status quo for me as I won't buy into rhetoric for the sake of it.

FWIW, I do think we need to seriously consider how to help countries in danger of losing their skilled workforce

 

[Captain Dart]

FWIW, I do think we need to seriously consider how to help countries in danger of losing their skilled workforce

I'm not lifting a finger to help Saudi when the oil runs out. :smuggrin:

 

[eastwoodsdustman]

No Surprise that Ms Warsi has announced that she's jumped across to the other side. Should be ashamed of herself for allowing herself to be a pawn in ther political game being played.

 

[jimmyhillsfanclub]

No Surprise that Ms Warsi has announced that she's jumped across to the other side. Should be ashamed of herself for allowing herself to be a pawn in ther political game being played.

Yep....and what a shit reason for swapping sides......surely as a politician & public figure, she should make an argument regarding the pros & cons for leave & remain.....not just switch sides cos she doesn't like a poster used by the unofficial leave campaign.....

Can she not remember some of her own comments regarding immigration, the BNP & homosexuality by the way....

...shes a morally bankrupt publicity seeking careerist politician with zero mandate from the public....

 

[Grendel]

No Surprise that Ms Warsi has announced that she's jumped across to the other side. Should be ashamed of herself for allowing herself to be a pawn in ther political game being played.

Apparantly Brexit were not even aware she was on their side.

I guess she hasn't found a way to get into the news for a while.

 

[eastwoodsdustman]

Apparantly Brexit were not even aware she was on their side.

I guess she hasn't found a way to get into the news for a while.

Best put down they could have come out with that one. She was clearly a 'plant' and her switch was planned to for maximum effect. The leave campaigns response shows her for what she is/was.

 

[Kingokings204]

Best of it was the poster was actually correct. It says "the eu has failed us"

This is a referendum on our eu membership so it is relevant and correct.

Obviously the poster is racist and vile as that's what they do. Anything that reflects the truth is racist or sexist or whatever. Such a shit argument.

 

[Kingokings204]

Oh and she was never in the leave campaign let's just clear that up.

 

[Monners]

I wouldn't want her anywhere near any campaign - always thought she was horrible.
What gets me about the politicians on either side is that most don't realise that it's down to the electorate - it's a referendum, not party politics - one vote for each of us (able and allowed). My tick in the box is just as valid and important as any of theirs!

They have a been a shambles (I will except Chris Grayling on the leave side, and Hilary Benn on remain, who have stuck to the issues, complex as they are)

 

[Kingokings204]

I wouldn't want her anywhere near any campaign - always thought she was horrible.
What gets me about the politicians on either side is that most don't realise that it's down to the electorate - it's a referendum, not party politics - one vote for each of us (able and allowed). My tick in the box is just as valid and important as any of theirs!

They have a been a shambles (I will except Chris Grayling on the leave side, and Hilary Benn on remain, who have stuck to the issues, complex as they are)

Quite right to. It's not politicians who make business and trade and decisions it's us the electorate. Heck even the queen gets a vote but it's just the same as mine.

 

[Nick]

Was in stoke on Trent yesterday, huge signs all over saying vote leave. In businesses, bridges etc.

Not seen anything like it in Coventry

 

[robbiekeane]

pounds strengthened today on the back of the swing in the polls&betting markets.

Phew, was getting worried then. Thought it might actually have legs

 

[robbiekeane]

I read the Daily Mail. I have never voted Conservative. The Tories are out for what they can get for themselves and mainly get voted in by those that see themselves as being above working class.

Jesus. You know you can probably get The Beano for about the same price right?

 

[Kingokings204]

pounds strengthened today on the back of the swing in the polls&betting markets.

Phew, was getting worried then. Thought it might actually have legs

What has legs? The pound will fall and rise regardless

 

[Kingokings204]

Was in stoke on Trent yesterday, huge signs all over saying vote leave. In businesses, bridges etc.

Not seen anything like it in Coventry

I have on the A45. All over the motorways around Coventry and west mids also.

 

[mrtrench]

What has legs? The pound will rise and rise regardless

I hope the pound will weaken if we leave. It will make UK goods more attractive and so we'll sell more - not just to the EU either.
It will also cause inflation.

 

[Otis]

Jesus. You know you can probably get The Beano for about the same price right?

And not so many made up stories about it either.

 

[robbiekeane]

I hope the pound will weaken if we leave. It will make UK goods more attractive and so we'll sell more - not just to the EU either.
It will also cause inflation.

not neccesarily

 

[Kingokings204]

I hope the pound will weaken if we leave. It will make UK goods more attractive and so we'll sell more - not just to the EU either.
It will also cause inflation.

Exactly. Got a feeling we will remain now. Seems things have changed not sure why.

We will not just survive outside the eu but we will thrive. We are a square peg in a round hole in the eu. Not part of the euro zone or shengen. Not really sure why we are there.

 

[Kingokings204]

not neccesarily

But quite possibly also

 

[mrtrench]

not neccesarily

I think it will. If the pound weakens it causes all imports to be more expensive. The price of goods is what makes the inflation figure. Tell me why you think it won't.

EDIT: decided to explain with a simple example: French widgets cost 2 EUR. If there are 2 EUR to 1 GBP then they cost £1 to buy in the UK. If the pound weakens to parity with EUR they will then cost £2 each. That is the definition of inflation.

 

[robbiekeane]

Monetarist quantity theory of money. MV = PT

Your assumption is based (I think? tell me if im wrong) on all international imports becoming relatively more expensive, and therefore domestic spending (and the velocity of this) would increase, which would increase price levels.

But if we left the EU (which i am against), then only EU imports would become much more expensive with a weakened pound. This would likely be offset by the benefit we get from accessing the world market prices.

 

[mrtrench]

If the pound weakens it becomes weak against all currencies not just the EUR, so all imports cost more. Your scenario assumes that the EUR strengthens. And we already have access to world markets - it's just that they are subject to an import tax. Eventually, if we negotiated trade deals with more markets not currently having a deal with Europe, then yes the price of those goods would fall. However if that happened the pound would strengthen anyway.

 

[robbiekeane]

If the pound weakens it becomes weak against all currencies not just the EUR, so all imports cost more. Your scenario assumes that the EUR strengthens. And we already have access to world markets - it's just that they are subject to an import tax. Eventually, if we negotiated trade deals with more markets not currently having a deal with Europe, then yes the price of those goods would fall. However if that happened the pound would strengthen anyway.

My point was the two bold bits highlighted in your post above would likely offset each other, as we would no longer be subject to protectionist EU tarrifs. So, what we would previously import from Europe we would probably just get from the world market as it would be more attractive re import parity. Based on this I don't think we would neccesarily see the inflation you talk about.

 

[mrtrench]

I think we are agreeing. I'm talking about the immediate impact (when there will not be trade agreements in place). You are talking about the long term impact after new trade treaties have been signed.

 

[jimmyhillsfanclub]

Its OK everyone.....chill out.....that colossus of political, social & international financial history, Dr. David Beckham, has said we should "remain, innit, cos of cantona & schmiechel and stuff"