Relegation thread (5 Viewers)

[oucho]

Assuming we do not beat Bury, we will certainly need, from 12 games, at least 2 point per game, and also minimum 8 wins from 12. I think that's the tipping point at which the club might sack Slade and just start planning for next season - hence my gut feeling that the rumour on the other thread this afternoon is true.

 

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[Otis]

As I have said before, if we are all but down we might as well go with whoever is going to be in charge next season.

 

[oucho]

So I did a bit of analysis of this farcical season. So far we have P33 W5 D10 L 18 Pts 25. If this form is continued, we will end the season with a total of 35 points (being slightly generous by rounding up the percentages). If that's the case, we'll likely be officially relegated by Easter, depending on the date for when the Sheff U game is rearranged.

MV won 4 out of his first 6, losing just one. But if you remove these 6 games from the season average, we have done the following: P27 W1 D9 L17.

Now if this was replicated over the course of the season, we'd end up with: P46 W2 D15 L29 Pts 21.
That's a win % of 3.7% and less than half a point per game. That's an absolute clusterfuck. Removing the figleaf of the first half of the MV interregnum it really does show this season for the omnishambles that it has been. That little "new 'sort of-new manger' bounce has saved us from utter and total humiliation and meant that we are purely in the shocking embarrassment zone instead.

On these sort of numbers it will take a huge effort even to be reasonably competitive next season in League Two; it will be a mammoth job if we are going to be challenging for a play-off spot. Add to that getting knocked out of the League Cup 6-1 by Norwich second XI and then out of the FA Cup by League Two Cambridge 4-0, and you yet get a sense of the despair that people are feeling.

But it's OK because we'll get a day at Wembley.

 

[Otis]

I remain confident we can do it.

If La La Land can win the best picture at the Oscars, then I see no reason why we can't pull off the great escape.

 

[oucho]

I remain confident we can do it.

If La La Land can win the best picture at the Oscars, then I see no reason why we can't pull off the great escape.

Except it turned out it wasn't La La Land at all.....Oscars mistake: Moonlight wins best picture after announcement mix-up - BBC News

Or was that a joke that went over my head?

 

[covcity4life]

Except it turned out it wasn't La La Land at all.....Oscars mistake: Moonlight wins best picture after announcement mix-up - BBC News

Or was that a joke that went over my head?

yes.........it was

 

[Captain Dart]

we're down. end of discussion.

Yeah, been sure there was no escape for weeks now, if we lose against the teams around us there is no f***ing chance.

 

[Gazolba]

So I did a bit of analysis of this farcical season. So far we have P33 W5 D10 L 18 Pts 25. If this form is continued, we will end the season with a total of 35 points <snip>.

We may not have won many but we almost drew a lot, and we almost won a few.
If just a few of those 90+minute goals weren't scored, or a few of those shots that hit the post or bar had gone in, we could easily have had 8 more points.
We've thrown away a lot of points, we should have had.

 

[steve82]

We may not have won many but we almost drew a lot, and we almost won a few.
If just a few of those 90+minute goals weren't scored, or a few of those shots that hit the post or bar had gone in, we could easily have had 8 more points.
We've thrown away a lot of points, we should have had.

Spot on.... would put us were bury sit currently.
Players don't lack the mentality to do it

 

[covcity4life]

Spot on.... would put us were bury sit currently.
Players don't lack the mentality to do it

thats no different to mowbray though. he drew 6 lost 4. alot of them could have been turned into draws and wins

 

[steve82]

thats no different to mowbray though. he drew 6 lost 4. alot of them could have been turned into draws and wins

Correct Swindon sent the early warnings out, bury and Shrewsbury told us we'd struggle in front of goal. Bradford took us to pieces that second half after Turnbull walked, Northampton again was in it with a single Tudgay goal, RCC ironically made a few decent saves that day.
Fleetwood to me said alarm bells were ringing loud... TM's body language was massively negative his fight was gone. Didn't get off the bench more that 3/4 times. A terrible performance that day, my worst of the season ive seen personally. Millwall Oldham again fine lines but uninspiring, Gillingham did the usual and beat us at there place, before the late Andre Wright equaliser.
TM walked away tho knowing full well this side would not cut it. The players at his disposal were weak mentally, and goals were lacking.
Only 6 goals were scored in those first 10 games. Only 12 conceded at that stage but I don't recall any gifts for goals at that point.
It's a far different story now, TM foreseen this developing deeper and it was only gonna ever end one way and he wanted no part or like the players had no fight for the cause.

 

[covcity4life]

lol the first 10 games showed you all that

but past 11 games just shows you slade unlucky and players fault

your not bias are you...no not at all.

 

[steve82]

lol the first 10 games showed you all that

but past 11 games just shows you slade unlucky and players fault

your not bias are you...no not at all.

I'm talking to you reasonably here based on what I've seen and circumstances at those times, calculating all the factors at the times of the games. It's not biased its reasoned. I still am just as unhappy at our situation.
You could have a host of chefs, but if you bake a cake with poor quality flour or shit eggs your cake don't rise and crumbles away..

 

[covcity4life]

I'm talking to you reasonably here based on what I've seen and circumstances at those times, calculating all the factors at the times of the games. It's not biased its reasoned. I still am just as unhappy at our situation.
You could have a host of chefs, but if you bake a cake with poor quality flour or shit eggs your cake don't rise and crumbles away..

and im saying get a chef that doesnt shit in the pan

 

[Otis]

and im saying get a chef that doesnt shit in the pan

I think you must be going to the wrong restaurants.

Be like me and always try for ones with an open plan kitchen where you can actually see the chefs at work from your table.

 

[Edgey95]

I just want us mathematically down to end my hope of staying up then disappointment every Saturday evening.

 

[Otis]

I just want us mathematically down to end my hope of staying up then disappointment every Saturday evening.

Yeah, get that thinking. If we ARE going down anyway, it might be best to be put out of our misery sooner rather than later, rather than have the odd win here and there to give us the tiniest glimmer of hope.

I think we all pretty much now believe we are down anyway don't we?

Only hope I can see is a new manager bounce. Didn't work last time though did it.

 

[oucho]

I just want us mathematically down to end my hope of staying up then disappointment every Saturday evening.

I have done an analysis on this twice, and come up with the same result both times separately - at the **average** rate both us and the team in 20th are collating points, we will be down with either 3 or 4 games to go.

Of course, this relies on percentages and having to round up/down when in the actual collection of points will be in fits and starts i.e. a loss, a draw, a loss , a win, a loss etc, rather than an even 0.76 points per game as per our present average. However, if *on average* between now and early/mid-April both us and the safety point continue to gather points at the current rate, it does look like being the third-to-last game we'll definitely be down before kick-off, possibly before the 4th-to-last game.

So you'll have to wait a bit yet. It will partly depend on when the Sheff U game gets rescheduled - if this is before Easter (unlikely), it will hasten our decline as is a likely defeat.

 

[clint van damme]

I'm talking to you reasonably here based on what I've seen and circumstances at those times, calculating all the factors at the times of the games. It's not biased its reasoned. I still am just as unhappy at our situation.
You could have a host of chefs, but if you bake a cake with poor quality flour or shit eggs your cake don't rise and crumbles away..

didn't realise Mary Berry was a City supporter!

 

[steve82]

didn't realise Mary Berry was a City supporter!

Even that ol gal would struggle to knock up a Victoria sponge with the ingredients we have

 

[Otis]

Even that ol gal would struggle to knock up a Victoria sponge with the ingredients we have

The eggs are rotten and the flour has wilted.

 

[Gazolba]

I have done an analysis on this twice, and come up with the same result both times separately - at the **average** rate both us and the team in 20th are collating points, we will be down with either 3 or 4 games to go.

<snip>

So you'll have to wait a bit yet. It will partly depend on when the Sheff U game gets rescheduled - if this is before Easter (unlikely), it will hasten our decline as is a likely defeat.

It's a little pointless predicting we will get points at the same rate as so far. We are bottom of the table, so that means certain relegation. We need to pick up points like the top 2 teams in the league to stand any chance. I'll stick with my opinion that after one more defeat it's effectively all over. After that, we'll need to win or draw all remaining games. It will be certain long before it is mathematically certain.

 

[oucho]

Might be time to close thread....this is a done deal (and so early in the season that we could still get 61 points which is the same as 2nd-place Scunny have tonight).

Of more interest would be if we go on a run like we did under MV where we lost 7 in a row, or under Slade 5 in a row, if other results go against us we really could be down by the time the Wembley day rolls around.

 

[oucho]

OK.............maybe not time to close thread. Done some statto magic by transplanting MR's first spell here with out current points tally, and it makes interesting reading.

MR picked up 44 points in 25 league games, by my reckoning, in his first spell. That works out to 1.76 points per game. If we average that over our final 11 matches.........that's 20 points, to add to the 26 we have. 46 points could, COULD be enough to keep us up. If he can repeat his prior form, it will go down to the wire at the very least.

In the first 11 league games of his last spell, he "only" picked up 17 points (took us until January this season to get get 17 points FFS) so that would only take us to 43, we wouldn't survive on that. But again, it would be a damn sight closer than it would have been under Slade - in the 43 points scenario we'd be taking it into the final couple of games maybe rather than getting relegated at Easter under RS.

 

[Captain Dart]

OK.............maybe not time to close thread. Done some statto magic by transplanting MR's first spell here with out current points tally, and it makes interesting reading.

MR picked up 44 points in 25 league games, by my reckoning, in his first spell. That works out to 1.76 points per game. If we average that over our final 11 matches.........that's 20 points, to add to the 26 we have. 46 points could, COULD be enough to keep us up. If he can repeat his prior form, it will go down to the wire at the very least.

In the first 11 league games of his last spell, he "only" picked up 17 points (took us until January this season to get get 17 points FFS) so that would only take us to 43, we wouldn't survive on that. But again, it would be a damn sight closer than it would have been under Slade - in the 43 points scenario we'd be taking it into the final couple of games maybe rather than getting relegated at Easter under RS.

Forget it man, do you really think Oldham, Bury, Swindon & Port Vale will lose form so badly that they all pick up less points than games.
* Bury got 18pts in last 10 games, Oldham got 17.

 

[oucho]

Forget it man, do you really think Oldham, Bury, Swindon & Port Vale will lose form so badly that they all pick up less points than games.
* Bury got 18pts in last 10 games, Oldham got 17.

If we win enough points it doesn't require the other teams to go on an awful run. We're not reliant on other results.

 

[Otis]

We are rock bottom and therefore need to do better and a lot, lot better than 4 other teams.

Chesterfield are 5 points clear, Port Vale are 9 points clear and Swindon are 10 points clear. Have to make those differences up before we can even approach the full 13 points we are behind 5th from bottom.

We have to overtake 4 teams. MR says 8 wins. I dare say it might be 8 wins and then at least another draw of the 11 games to be sure.

It truly is the miracle stakes we now find ourselves in.

 

[its a buzzard]

So I did a bit of analysis of this farcical season. So far we have P33 W5 D10 L 18 Pts 25. If this form is continued, we will end the season with a total of 35 points (being slightly generous by rounding up the percentages). If that's the case, we'll likely be officially relegated by Easter, depending on the date for when the Sheff U game is rearranged.

MV won 4 out of his first 6, losing just one. But if you remove these 6 games from the season average, we have done the following: P27 W1 D9 L17.

Now if this was replicated over the course of the season, we'd end up with: P46 W2 D15 L29 Pts 21.
That's a win % of 3.7% and less than half a point per game. That's an absolute clusterfuck. Removing the figleaf of the first half of the MV interregnum it really does show this season for the omnishambles that it has been. That little "new 'sort of-new manger' bounce has saved us from utter and total humiliation and meant that we are purely in the shocking embarrassment zone instead.

On these sort of numbers it will take a huge effort even to be reasonably competitive next season in League Two; it will be a mammoth job if we are going to be challenging for a play-off spot. Add to that getting knocked out of the League Cup 6-1 by Norwich second XI and then out of the FA Cup by League Two Cambridge 4-0, and you yet get a sense of the despair that people are feeling.

But it's OK because we'll get a day at Wembley.

Always best to leave the good news till last!

 

[Otis]

For what it's worth, Chesterfield lost tonight.

City still 5 points behind, but now with a game in hand.

Be nice just to get off the bleedin bottom.

 

[no_loyalty]

For what it's worth, Chesterfield lost tonight.

City still 5 points behind, but now with a game in hand.

Be nice just to get off the bleedin bottom.

Was just about to post about Chesterfield losing, happy days.

Port Vale have only played 33 games

 

[Otis]

Was just about to post about Chesterfield losing, happy days.

Port Vale have only played 33 games

Yep. Fixtures are going to pile up for them though. They have 3 games in hand over some sides.

 

[oucho]

If we win on Sat and then Tues, you just know that the vibe will start to be "the great escape is on", and then MK becomes a massive game (which we will no doubt lose, typical City).

 

[Otis]

Personally, it would have to be 3 on the bounce for me and the points adrift from 5th from bottom down to about 8-9 points for me to believe it could then be on.

 

[robbiekeane]

We're down. But I'd be lying if I wasn't still doing all this in my head.

 

[oucho]

We have won 1 out of the last 20 I believe. Yes, Robins lost his first game in his first spell as well (Carlisle, also at home) but even the run of form we went on under im won't be enough to save us now. We need to win 7 out of 10 and then probably draw a couple more, then hope. It really doesn't seem likely.