The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (51 Viewers)
- Thread starter jimmyhillsfanclub
- Start date
Captain Dart
Well-Known Member
One party state, what bollocks. What is the difference between the UK & Germany. Merkel has been in power since 2005 and stands again soon.
Labour was in power in this country for 13 years from 1997, the 1997 government had a record majority (1945 Labour government had a big majority too). Even if the Tories equal that the likelihood is they will be out in a decade.
1. I said almost. Meaning massive majority ( predicted) and no opposition for the time being.
2. Merkel nearly always is part of a coalition. She is not a president and her coalition partners can pull the rug from under her feet at any time should she break the coalition contract. Her party's unlikely to get an overall majority in September. Her coalition the last 2 times was with CSU ( right of her party ) and SPD ( left of her party ). Before it was with FDP ( liberal and centrist) and CSU.
3. you quote from the past. No-one knows how long this right wing wave will last.
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
The big problem, well one of them, is that the changes the Conservatives have made to how the electoral register is maintained and constituency boundaries makes it incredibly difficult for Labour to win in England.
The change to individual voter registration has seen 800,000 drop off the electoral register. The majority are students, ethnic minorities or those from poorer areas of the country. Not exactly the profile of Conservative voters. This has been done against Electoral Commission advice.
At the last election the Conservatives got 34,244 votes for every seat they won, Labour required an average of 40,290 to win a seat. With the changes to the constituency boundaries it will be even more in the Conservatives favour this time round. The changes to the boundaries based on the last election would see the Conservatives lose 5% of their MPs while Labour would lose 13%
The system is a mess, even before you consider the deficiencies of first past the post, but there seems little appetite to address the problems and carry out any meaningful reform.
And... ( see above post ) it seems you and so many others have not got a clue about who Merkel is, what she represents and how the German system works. You hear things like' mad Merkel' from Farage, UKIP, Murdoch and Trump - and lap it up. You hear crap from the same people about 'sovereignty', queues of countries wanting to give us great deals, millions of refugees and free loaders pouring in - or as Farage said on Fox News ( forgive my laughter ) 500 million potential illegal immigrants and you lap it up and yes, you have found scape goats and people below you - and you probably feel better... But your mentors are pissing themselves all the way to the bank.. and now Juncker has made a small dig at the English language and everything you believed in has been confirmed.. you must be on cloud 7. go have a beer and relax. You've earned it...
Well said. Nothing to do with democracy- but let's divert attention to the undemocratic and intransparent EU... always works. Until we're no longer in it.
Kingokings204
Well-Known Member
Property prices have gone up fast here in coventry also as I have just sold my house and got a fortune. I thought voting brexit was going to crash the housing market or was all the lies on the leave side?
dutchman
Well-Known Member
It would have done if the Bank of England had raised interest rates as it threatened it would do. In the event they reduced interest rates which has boosted property prices and lowered the Pound.
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
The full effects won't be realised until it's actually happened...
The BoE also pumped billions into the economy, something which seems to have been forgotten
Good move... sell at the top of the cycle... many on here point out that house prices are too high because of the millions of EU immigrants.... At the moment you are selling in a relatively prosperous EU country. Good time. Maybe the prices will fall as a result of Brexit. It is too early to predict and Brexit is a few years away.
ccfc92
Well-Known Member
Why do you assume that Brexit will have a negative effect on Britain's economy?
Like you say: It is too early to predict and Brexit is a few years away.
It is too early to predict accurately, but I think that as far as trade deals are concerned we will be worse off. I don't know definitely of course, but we will be out on our own and are just leaving a powerful trading bloc. The house prices are supposed to be high because of EU immigration and according to Brexit supporters they should come down when immigration subsides or becomes emigration. If they are right, then now is the time to sell - but it is hard to predict whether immigration is the sole cause, or whether immigration will actually be drastically reduced.
ccfc92
Well-Known Member
I personally don't believe it's immigration that's raised the house prices, so not all Brexit supporters think that
I am hoping they fall, as I'm hoping to get on the ladder soon myself.
mrtrench
Well-Known Member
Except it's not even right wing either - the present Tory party is only slightly right of centre I'd say.
mrtrench
Well-Known Member
I personally don't believe it's immigration that's raised the house prices, so not all Brexit supporters think that
I am hoping they fall, as I'm hoping to get on the ladder soon myself.
Good luck with buying your first house.
There is no one reason for house prices being so crazy but they are driven by supply and demand. Adding 332,000 net immigration per year certainly doesn't help. That's more than the population of Coventry: 313k in 2014, 332k in 2015 and 273k in 2016. 1.13 million over the past 4 years - that's more than the population of Birmingham.
Still think immigration isn't a cause?
SIR ERNIE
Well-Known Member
Correct. Only those with an agenda would disagree.
...Step forward the usual suspects.
ccfc92
Well-Known Member
Good luck with buying your first house.
There is no one reason for house prices being so crazy but they are driven by supply and demand. Adding 332,000 net immigration per year certainly doesn't help. That's more than the population of Coventry: 313k in 2014, 332k in 2015 and 273k in 2016. 1.13 million over the past 4 years - that's more than the population of Birmingham.
Still think immigration isn't a cause?
Thank you
Will need it!I'll be honest, I haven't really looked into it, it's just an uneducated opinion
The only counter argument I can think of off hand, is the amount of empty houses in the country?
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mrtrench
Well-Known Member
Supply and demand again. There aren't any empty houses in regions where people want to live.
ccfc92
Well-Known Member
I'd agree with this. Society has gone so left wing, any conservative actions appear right wing.
I don't understand why people have to be labelled personally.
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chiefdave
Well-Known Member
Thats part of the problem. Uncertainly isn't good for the economy and we've got years of it ahead of us.
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
How has society 'gone so left wing'? When was the last time the UK had a true left wing government? Both Labour and the Tories moved towards the centre and the Tories are now drifting right again.
ccfc92
Well-Known Member
I mean the amount of people on benefits, and not working as they're better off on benefits is left wing, wouldn't you say?
However, the corporations not paying tax etc infuriates me just as much.
I just believe, if you can work, you should work for your house, car, possessions etc. Not have them handed to you.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
The last time was the 1970's. Power cuts, uncompetitive crippled motor car industry, the chancellor crawling to the IMF for hand outs, the dead remained unburied and rubbish uncollected.
Oh and record levels of unemployment.
The good old days.
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
No, not really?
ccfc92
Well-Known Member
Well surely allowing many people who can work, but choose not to, receive benefits is left leaning than central/right?
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
Before my time but wasn't the start of that when pay rises for public sector workers were capped?
dutchman
Well-Known Member
Nobody knows if it's the top of the cycle or not. Prices could rise further.
Captain Dart
Well-Known Member
What a stupid disingenuous statistic, of course it was like that, mostl Labours seats are in metropolitan areas where there is a relatively large majority. Nevertheless the Tories got 36% of the national vote & Labour got 30%, so the balance of seats was not utterly unreasonable. The biggest boundary crime is that the SNP got 4.7% of the vote and ended up with 56 seats (or 8.6% of the seats). Now Scotland of course was were the Labour party was gerrymandering for many years while they were the party most people voted for, till their vote collapsed and the SNP took it.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
I think they tried to introduce a 5% cap for all workers and would fine private companies who offered more.
Inflation was running at around 30% I think and it ended up in the Winter of Discontent when unions decided in a freezing cold winter to strike and try and make the labour government concede to absurd wage demands in a bankrupt country.
This ultimately is why Thatcher did what she did. The hard extreme left wing had to be destroyed.
Corbyn is attempting to turn back time. He will be obliterated from history
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
I am not a fan of him at all but think May is just as bad a leader.
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
Biggest Brexit donor urges May to guarantee rights of EU nationals
Finally some common sense, let's hope that the vile May actually listens. Her refusal to take students out of the immigration figures is bizarre as well. Surely the country should be looking to attract talent rather than putting it off?
Finally some common sense, let's hope that the vile May actually listens. Her refusal to take students out of the immigration figures is bizarre as well. Surely the country should be looking to attract talent rather than putting it off?
mrtrench
Well-Known Member
Sorry, don't agree. Five year fixed interest rates are low because the markets believe there will be low growth and hence low interest rates for years to come. If they believed that growth was going to pick up they would factor in the higher interest rates that would be needed to control higher inflation caused by higher growth.
Having said that, if you look at a GBP yield curve (which is not exactly the same as fixed rates on mortgages as it doesn't include the banks' margin and there is also a bit of a calculation that goes on to get a swaps rate - which is what is used to determine fixed rates on loans), you can see that the banks are factoring in at least one interest rate hike in the next 12 months. 12 month LIBOR is 0.68% - showing that the banks believe that BoE base will be at least 0.5% by then and possibly 0.75%. So markets are not very pessimistic. 5 years swaps are at 1.29% - so 1.7% mortgages are a bargain IMO. This is only my opinion.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Incredible.