The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (12 Viewers)

As of right now, how are thinking of voting? In or out

  • Remain

    Votes: 23 37.1%
  • Leave

    Votes: 35 56.5%
  • Undecided

    Votes: 3 4.8%
  • Not registered or not intention to vote

    Votes: 1 1.6%

  • Total voters
    62
  • Poll closed .

Captain Dart

Well-Known Member
Are you blaming Luxemburg for surrendering? The Luxemburg army is about 300 strong at the moment,. I suspect the German language was more important to them then as now. Their own language is similar to German..

Anyway, it is strange that everyone is up in arms about a little negative quip by Juncker, but the same people were praising Farage for his constant digs and insults in the European Parliament...

I don't like either of them, but I am not bothered about Juncker's little dig. With the collapse of Labour and the prospect of an almost one party state in the U.K., I think we have other things to worry about.

One party state, what bollocks. What is the difference between the UK & Germany. Merkel has been in power since 2005 and stands again soon.

upload_2017-5-6_11-42-8.png

Labour was in power in this country for 13 years from 1997, the 1997 government had a record majority (1945 Labour government had a big majority too). Even if the Tories equal that the likelihood is they will be out in a decade.
 

martcov

Well-Known Member
One party state, what bollocks. What is the difference between the UK & Germany. Merkel has been in power since 2005 and stands again soon.

View attachment 7388

Labour was in power in this country for 13 years from 1997, the 1997 government had a record majority (1945 Labour government had a big majority too). Even if the Tories equal that the likelihood is they will be out in a decade.

1. I said almost. Meaning massive majority ( predicted) and no opposition for the time being.

2. Merkel nearly always is part of a coalition. She is not a president and her coalition partners can pull the rug from under her feet at any time should she break the coalition contract. Her party's unlikely to get an overall majority in September. Her coalition the last 2 times was with CSU ( right of her party ) and SPD ( left of her party ). Before it was with FDP ( liberal and centrist) and CSU.

3. you quote from the past. No-one knows how long this right wing wave will last.
 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
I said almost. Meaning massive majority ( predicted) and no opposition for the time being.
The big problem, well one of them, is that the changes the Conservatives have made to how the electoral register is maintained and constituency boundaries makes it incredibly difficult for Labour to win in England.

The change to individual voter registration has seen 800,000 drop off the electoral register. The majority are students, ethnic minorities or those from poorer areas of the country. Not exactly the profile of Conservative voters. This has been done against Electoral Commission advice.

At the last election the Conservatives got 34,244 votes for every seat they won, Labour required an average of 40,290 to win a seat. With the changes to the constituency boundaries it will be even more in the Conservatives favour this time round. The changes to the boundaries based on the last election would see the Conservatives lose 5% of their MPs while Labour would lose 13%

The system is a mess, even before you consider the deficiencies of first past the post, but there seems little appetite to address the problems and carry out any meaningful reform.
 

martcov

Well-Known Member
One party state, what bollocks. What is the difference between the UK & Germany. Merkel has been in power since 2005 and stands again soon.

View attachment 7388

Labour was in power in this country for 13 years from 1997, the 1997 government had a record majority (1945 Labour government had a big majority too). Even if the Tories equal that the likelihood is they will be out in a decade.

And... ( see above post ) it seems you and so many others have not got a clue about who Merkel is, what she represents and how the German system works. You hear things like' mad Merkel' from Farage, UKIP, Murdoch and Trump - and lap it up. You hear crap from the same people about 'sovereignty', queues of countries wanting to give us great deals, millions of refugees and free loaders pouring in - or as Farage said on Fox News ( forgive my laughter ) 500 million potential illegal immigrants and you lap it up and yes, you have found scape goats and people below you - and you probably feel better... But your mentors are pissing themselves all the way to the bank.. and now Juncker has made a small dig at the English language and everything you believed in has been confirmed.. you must be on cloud 7. go have a beer and relax. You've earned it...
 

martcov

Well-Known Member
The big problem, well one of them, is that the changes the Conservatives have made to how the electoral register is maintained and constituency boundaries makes it incredibly difficult for Labour to win in England.

The change to individual voter registration has seen 800,000 drop off the electoral register. The majority are students, ethnic minorities or those from poorer areas of the country. Not exactly the profile of Conservative voters. This has been done against Electoral Commission advice.

At the last election the Conservatives got 34,244 votes for every seat they won, Labour required an average of 40,290 to win a seat. With the changes to the constituency boundaries it will be even more in the Conservatives favour this time round. The changes to the boundaries based on the last election would see the Conservatives lose 5% of their MPs while Labour would lose 13%

The system is a mess, even before you consider the deficiencies of first past the post, but there seems little appetite to address the problems and carry out any meaningful reform.

Well said. Nothing to do with democracy- but let's divert attention to the undemocratic and intransparent EU... always works. Until we're no longer in it.
 

Kingokings204

Well-Known Member
They think it is a mistake for Britain and that it will have negative consequences in Germany. The Germans see it as a lose lose situation. They find it hard to understand- it defies their sense of logic.

Property prices are rising dramatically in Frankfurt- so at least some Germans think they will be winning...

Property prices have gone up fast here in coventry also as I have just sold my house and got a fortune. I thought voting brexit was going to crash the housing market or was all the lies on the leave side?
 

dutchman

Well-Known Member
Property prices have gone up fast here in coventry also as I have just sold my house and got a fortune. I thought voting brexit was going to crash the housing market or was all the lies on the leave side?
It would have done if the Bank of England had raised interest rates as it threatened it would do. In the event they reduced interest rates which has boosted property prices and lowered the Pound.
 

Sick Boy

Well-Known Member
Property prices have gone up fast here in coventry also as I have just sold my house and got a fortune. I thought voting brexit was going to crash the housing market or was all the lies on the leave side?

The full effects won't be realised until it's actually happened...

The BoE also pumped billions into the economy, something which seems to have been forgotten
 

martcov

Well-Known Member
Property prices have gone up fast here in coventry also as I have just sold my house and got a fortune. I thought voting brexit was going to crash the housing market or was all the lies on the leave side?

Good move... sell at the top of the cycle... many on here point out that house prices are too high because of the millions of EU immigrants.... At the moment you are selling in a relatively prosperous EU country. Good time. Maybe the prices will fall as a result of Brexit. It is too early to predict and Brexit is a few years away.
 

ccfc92

Well-Known Member
Good move... sell at the top of the cycle... many on here point out that house prices are too high because of the millions of EU immigrants.... At the moment you are selling in a relatively prosperous EU country. Good time. Maybe the prices will fall as a result of Brexit. It is too early to predict and Brexit is a few years away.

Why do you assume that Brexit will have a negative effect on Britain's economy?

Like you say: It is too early to predict and Brexit is a few years away.
 

martcov

Well-Known Member
Why do you assume that Brexit will have a negative effect on Britain's economy?

Like you say: It is too early to predict and Brexit is a few years away.

It is too early to predict accurately, but I think that as far as trade deals are concerned we will be worse off. I don't know definitely of course, but we will be out on our own and are just leaving a powerful trading bloc. The house prices are supposed to be high because of EU immigration and according to Brexit supporters they should come down when immigration subsides or becomes emigration. If they are right, then now is the time to sell - but it is hard to predict whether immigration is the sole cause, or whether immigration will actually be drastically reduced.
 

ccfc92

Well-Known Member
It is too early to predict accurately, but I think that as far as trade deals are concerned we will be worse off. I don't know definitely of course, but we will be out on our own and are just leaving a powerful trading bloc. The house prices are supposed to be high because of EU immigration and according to Brexit supporters they should come down when immigration subsides or becomes emigration. If they are right, then now is the time to sell - but it is hard to predict whether immigration is the sole cause, or whether immigration will actually be drastically reduced.

I personally don't believe it's immigration that's raised the house prices, so not all Brexit supporters think that :)

I am hoping they fall, as I'm hoping to get on the ladder soon myself.
 

mrtrench

Well-Known Member
I personally don't believe it's immigration that's raised the house prices, so not all Brexit supporters think that :)

I am hoping they fall, as I'm hoping to get on the ladder soon myself.


Good luck with buying your first house. :)

There is no one reason for house prices being so crazy but they are driven by supply and demand. Adding 332,000 net immigration per year certainly doesn't help. That's more than the population of Coventry: 313k in 2014, 332k in 2015 and 273k in 2016. 1.13 million over the past 4 years - that's more than the population of Birmingham.

Still think immigration isn't a cause?
 

ccfc92

Well-Known Member
Good luck with buying your first house. :)

There is no one reason for house prices being so crazy but they are driven by supply and demand. Adding 332,000 net immigration per year certainly doesn't help. That's more than the population of Coventry: 313k in 2014, 332k in 2015 and 273k in 2016. 1.13 million over the past 4 years - that's more than the population of Birmingham.

Still think immigration isn't a cause?

Thank you :) Will need it!

I'll be honest, I haven't really looked into it, it's just an uneducated opinion :)

The only counter argument I can think of off hand, is the amount of empty houses in the country?

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mrtrench

Well-Known Member
I'll be honest, I haven't really looked into it.

The only counter argument I can think of off hand, is the amount of empty houses in the country?

Supply and demand again. There aren't any empty houses in regions where people want to live.
 

ccfc92

Well-Known Member
Except it's not even right wing either - the present Tory party is only slightly right of centre I'd say.

I'd agree with this. Society has gone so left wing, any conservative actions appear right wing.

I don't understand why people have to be labelled personally.
 
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Sick Boy

Well-Known Member
I'd agree with this. Society has gone so left wing, any conservative actions appear right wing.

I don't understand why people have to be labelled personally.

How has society 'gone so left wing'? When was the last time the UK had a true left wing government? Both Labour and the Tories moved towards the centre and the Tories are now drifting right again.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
The only thing that will bring house prices down would be high interest rates.

Five year deals at 1.7% can be obtained.

A sure indicator that the banking sector doesn't have issues regarding a Brexit collapse.
 

ccfc92

Well-Known Member
How has society 'gone so left wing'? When was the last time the UK had a true left wing government? Both Labour and the Tories moved towards the centre and the Tories are now drifting right again.

I mean the amount of people on benefits, and not working as they're better off on benefits is left wing, wouldn't you say?

However, the corporations not paying tax etc infuriates me just as much.

I just believe, if you can work, you should work for your house, car, possessions etc. Not have them handed to you.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
How has society 'gone so left wing'? When was the last time the UK had a true left wing government? Both Labour and the Tories moved towards the centre and the Tories are now drifting right again.

The last time was the 1970's. Power cuts, uncompetitive crippled motor car industry, the chancellor crawling to the IMF for hand outs, the dead remained unburied and rubbish uncollected.

Oh and record levels of unemployment.

The good old days.
 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
The last time was the 1970's. Power cuts, uncompetitive crippled motor car industry, the chancellor crawling to the IMF for hand outs, the dead remained unburied and rubbish uncollected.
Before my time but wasn't the start of that when pay rises for public sector workers were capped?
 

Captain Dart

Well-Known Member
At the last election the Conservatives got 34,244 votes for every seat they won, Labour required an average of 40,290 to win a seat. With the changes to the constituency boundaries it will be even more in the Conservatives favour this time round. The changes to the boundaries based on the last election would see the Conservatives lose 5% of their MPs while Labour would lose 13%

What a stupid disingenuous statistic, of course it was like that, mostl Labours seats are in metropolitan areas where there is a relatively large majority. Nevertheless the Tories got 36% of the national vote & Labour got 30%, so the balance of seats was not utterly unreasonable. The biggest boundary crime is that the SNP got 4.7% of the vote and ended up with 56 seats (or 8.6% of the seats). Now Scotland of course was were the Labour party was gerrymandering for many years while they were the party most people voted for, till their vote collapsed and the SNP took it.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
Before my time but wasn't the start of that when pay rises for public sector workers were capped?

I think they tried to introduce a 5% cap for all workers and would fine private companies who offered more.

Inflation was running at around 30% I think and it ended up in the Winter of Discontent when unions decided in a freezing cold winter to strike and try and make the labour government concede to absurd wage demands in a bankrupt country.

This ultimately is why Thatcher did what she did. The hard extreme left wing had to be destroyed.

Corbyn is attempting to turn back time. He will be obliterated from history
 

mrtrench

Well-Known Member
interest rates...

Five year deals at 1.7% can be obtained.

A sure indicator that the banking sector doesn't have issues regarding a Brexit collapse.

Sorry, don't agree. Five year fixed interest rates are low because the markets believe there will be low growth and hence low interest rates for years to come. If they believed that growth was going to pick up they would factor in the higher interest rates that would be needed to control higher inflation caused by higher growth.

Having said that, if you look at a GBP yield curve (which is not exactly the same as fixed rates on mortgages as it doesn't include the banks' margin and there is also a bit of a calculation that goes on to get a swaps rate - which is what is used to determine fixed rates on loans), you can see that the banks are factoring in at least one interest rate hike in the next 12 months. 12 month LIBOR is 0.68% - showing that the banks believe that BoE base will be at least 0.5% by then and possibly 0.75%. So markets are not very pessimistic. 5 years swaps are at 1.29% - so 1.7% mortgages are a bargain IMO. This is only my opinion.
 

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