standupforcity
Well-Known Member
You made me laugh btw....
How close is a takeover really...? (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter standupforcity
- Start date
dongonzalos
Well-Known Member
So are you suggesting that the debt is getting slowly paid off?
I was under the impression it isn't.
Also aren't investments such as this supposed to pay off after 10 years not 40 years.
What if you invested in your late 40's or 50's will you be happy with pay offs in your late 80's / 90's?
I still think it's somehow linked to compensation levels and trying to get the highest price possible when the enivitable does happen
Polar
Well-Known Member
If they are making a small profit (didn't they report profits in the last few returns to companies house), then I guess they could be? Unless it's being consumed by other things (unexpected expenses in the next year, new staff, growth, occasional reinvestment in players, court cases maybe?).
As I say, probably a rather one-dimensional view and others that know the club better on here will be able to theorise i'm sure. I'm just suggesting that SISU probably have x amount of debt in the business, and so any takeover would probably have to allow them to realise that debt (plus whatever else they feel the business is worth). Therefore a nominal bid for a few million isn't going to let them cut their losses.
Fully agree on your point on how slow it would be to pay back creditors. All i can say is that their current approach seems very conservative; cut as many costs as possible, and get a workable profit in place somehow. Now the business is at least a going concern.
I'm suppose their investors would prefer a low risk approach like that, compared to say, sinking another £20m to try and get promoted a few times and quickly pay off the debts with (hopefully) success.
I would probably agree with the steadying the ship approach in any other business, but this is football! We are at the lowest ebb ever and it's heartbreaking to see.
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win9nut
Well-Known Member
It's not illegal from a P&L statement perspective (so long as they are adequately audited and signed off) but for tax purposes you can only claim capital allowances in place of depreciation.
The Bobster
Member
A couple of points on Sisu.
Sisu manage funds and charge the investors for doing so . On that basis if Sisu sell ,the losses to their investors become evident. I do not believe that it is Seppalla's decision whether they sell ,but the investors. The purpose of a hedge fund is for the investors to get a better return on their investment than they would by using conventional markets. On the basis of their returns to date , it has been a shocking investment.Which designates Sisu as a hedge fund not to invest in .
Until a sale is actioned , the level of the losses to the investors remains camouflaged.
In simple terms if you invested £1m a sale is likely to give you a return of £200k. Your options are to sit it out and you may minimise your loss ,or take the £800k hit and move on . The sale on this basis would destroy Sisu's already poor reputation and no doubt finish them off . While there remains a small glimmer of hope i.e. Robins can mastermind a promotion they have no option to hold onto the club . Unless the investors say enough is enough .i suspect one of the investors is Little Timmy , which is why he works for nothing .
I am not a financial expert , but believe this logically explains why Sisu are so reluctant to sell . I am happy to be corrected, but until we rid ourselves of this vermin the club will be dragged lower and lower , hence why potential local investors are prepared to write money off to save a major part of Coventry heritage .
Sisu manage funds and charge the investors for doing so . On that basis if Sisu sell ,the losses to their investors become evident. I do not believe that it is Seppalla's decision whether they sell ,but the investors. The purpose of a hedge fund is for the investors to get a better return on their investment than they would by using conventional markets. On the basis of their returns to date , it has been a shocking investment.Which designates Sisu as a hedge fund not to invest in .
Until a sale is actioned , the level of the losses to the investors remains camouflaged.
In simple terms if you invested £1m a sale is likely to give you a return of £200k. Your options are to sit it out and you may minimise your loss ,or take the £800k hit and move on . The sale on this basis would destroy Sisu's already poor reputation and no doubt finish them off . While there remains a small glimmer of hope i.e. Robins can mastermind a promotion they have no option to hold onto the club . Unless the investors say enough is enough .i suspect one of the investors is Little Timmy , which is why he works for nothing .
I am not a financial expert , but believe this logically explains why Sisu are so reluctant to sell . I am happy to be corrected, but until we rid ourselves of this vermin the club will be dragged lower and lower , hence why potential local investors are prepared to write money off to save a major part of Coventry heritage .
Kingokings204
Well-Known Member
Whilst I completely agree about realized losses and sisu not selling for such a huge loss etc but one question if I may?
How the fuck are they expecting to ever make their money back by keeping the club?
How the fuck are they expecting to ever make their money back by keeping the club?
The Bobster
Member
They are desperate , deluded , dumb ,dickheads, dangerous, choose which one you want. But unless the investors are prepared to write of some of their initial investment they will no doubt cling on like a drunken gambler. Technically their loss is sat there , by until a sale it does not get realised .
The Bobster
Member
Another point is whilst there a people looking to purchase the club it is costing them nothing to sit tight at the moment . In addition both the council and the Wasps need CCFC at the Ricoh . Whilst there latest court hearing is likely to fail it would be in the Wasps and Councils interest if Sisu fucked off . What if an out of court settlement could be agreed . It would mask the real issue . I appreciate this is speculation, but one thing for certain is Sisu need to minimise their investors losses . I believe it is not a case of will they but when .
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
I'm surprised the Fisher line about crystalising losses has got such currency.
The original investment would have been written off from a SISU investment POV. We're now on to round #2, and *that's* what you have to look at...
The original investment would have been written off from a SISU investment POV. We're now on to round #2, and *that's* what you have to look at...
Sky Blue Harry H
Well-Known Member
I am confident that any sale is now closer than the previous posts. I will copy and paste this post in another 10 pages time 
The Bobster
Member
The Bobster
Member
Why would they be written off NW ?
The investors presumably would be getting dividends ,but their original investment would still be there ?
The investors presumably would be getting dividends ,but their original investment would still be there ?
Sky Blue Harry H
Well-Known Member
Probably a naive view, but discounting the balance sheet semantics (and I profess to not fully understanding them) - I wondered if SISU were hoping that if CCFC could have a successful 17/18 season (i.e promotion) then they could gain a higher sale price form any purchasers. Surely they are facing a looming milestone with the Ricoh rental agreement running out at the end of the current season and I would have thought that the time/money involved in resolving that issue (assuming they can't do a deal for the Ricoh) would give them the best 'get out' point at the end of this season. In some ways, I hope that Wasps (spit)/ ACL/whoever (forgotten the relevant negotiating parties!) play hardball and force SISU to go (as alternatives are not practical/acceptable). Might be naive, but I am hopeful that new purchasers would quickly be able to renegotiate with our current landlords and we can then turn this club around.
Nick
Administrator
Got to love all of the want for ccfc to be distressed.
Polar
Well-Known Member
Can you explain to me why that view of realising losses doesn't hold water? What is round 2?
I'm not throwing my weight behind any side of an argument btw, just interested. They used to say £60m of debt...sometimes I hear £40... all feels very smoke and mirrors, which resonates with some of the points made above.
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D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
As simple as I say it, the original investment would have been written off from a SISU POV.
That's it. Investors don't wait for 43 years before asking for a return... or not. It's a Private Equity investment, and you'd be better off looking at when ARVO pop up, and how that coincides with a normal timescale for the end of one investment, start of another... and how the strategy shifts too.
That's it. Investors don't wait for 43 years before asking for a return... or not. It's a Private Equity investment, and you'd be better off looking at when ARVO pop up, and how that coincides with a normal timescale for the end of one investment, start of another... and how the strategy shifts too.
covross
New Member
Spot on bob. I think Joy would hold out but Tim would walk tomorrow if he could. Does anyone know how many 'investors' are involved in ccfc/sisu? For example 6, and say 2 of the hedge fund would sell but 4 didn't want to, that might be holding Hoffman's takeover up. Dermot Coleman definitely has a lot to answer for too, he shouldn't let ego get in the way of people's livelihoods. But then once they chuck the keys in Sisu will be known as 'sisu the hedge fund that messed up big time'. Which doesn't look good for future 'investors'.
Sky Blue Harry H
Well-Known Member
I don't want CCFC to be distressed - but, if our owners were squeezed to sell, as they had no viable stadium alternative without forking out ££££s, surely you would want that wouldn't you Nick? (i.e new owners who were willing to try and turn our fortunes around?)
Astute
Well-Known Member
We have been for about 20 years now so what difference would another year or two make if it helped to get rid of SISU?
Nick
Administrator
And if it doesn't get rid of them?
Captain Dart
Well-Known Member
I'd ask how the fuck did they ever expect to make money by buying a money pit like a football club?
Captain Dart
Well-Known Member
I've been saying the same as NW for some time.
FYI round 2 refers to an investment by a SISU fund called ARVO, which has only put in around £8M, prior to that another SISU fund put in somewhat more (about £25M if memory serves) and made a right pigs ear of their investment strategy,
Essentially that first tranche of money was written off and only exists as paper debt that will never be repaid. Losers ONYE Igwe & then Ken Delieu were associated with the earlier failures. They've been dumped by SISU. This link gives a bit of background, Fisher confirms Onye Igwe departure
Joy Sepalla is much more hands on with this second investment and I see it as her saying to investors I will turn this around and make a profit, and by doing so she will restore her reputation. Assuming she only has to make a decent profit from an £8M investment over 4-5 years then I thing she will let go provided she guarantees to make £12M and has a very good chance of making the return up to double. However I think the court cases will have to play out a bit more.
Polar
Well-Known Member
Thanks, that makes sense to me.
I guess then, that Joy does see a reasonable prospect of making back that kind of money - after all, they report a trickle profit, and despite the obvious stagnation, relegation and possible loss of Academy status (!), things *might* finally start getting better if the club can win promotion next season, from her perspective?
If I ever have any sizeable cash, I'm never investing it in football!
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ccfcway
Well-Known Member
Thorn must have been lying then ?
Grendel
Well-Known Member
Well uh yeah - unless you believe Premiership clubs were looking at him. Lol
Sky Blue Harry H
Well-Known Member
I have renewed my ST, and am not interested in wasting my energy in a SISU out campaign that won't make a jot of difference; however, I do see the impending expiry of the rental agreement as a milestone in forcing SISU to reveal their intentions as regards CCFC. Dislike them as much as I do, it is only because of what they have done. If they change direction and turn the club around, I will be happy. Like others, I won't forget the Northampton debacle, but ultimately it is about the direction that CCFC is being taken. If they can take it in a positive direction, I am fine with that. If not, please sell up to someone who can. Over to you SISU.
Nick
Administrator
Yes but all of this forcing SISU stuff, what happens if it doesn't make them go but by forcing CCFC out to pressure SISU it means CCFC moves somewhere?
ccfcway
Well-Known Member
where ?. Our chairman has confirmed Plan A is the Butts, why would they move somewhere else ?
Nick
Administrator
Is that going to be the justification of CCFC being kicked out then? May as well get it rolling already.
ccfcway
Well-Known Member
don't follow ?, the justification of ccfc being kicked out is ccfc saying they want to go to the butts ?
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
Throw some cash and get promotion to top flight. Either tread water and pick up cash, or club then becomes saleable and can be moved on.
Always high risk, potentially high return. 300% was mooted to me once by somebody. Frankly, it was about the only way we were going to get taken over back then.
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
Wonder if the three year plan they started out with was the three year plan they ended up with...?
This is where it gets emotive (and is where I put the caveat that this is entirely why financiers shouldn't be allowed anywhere near football) but from a financial POV, even though it didn't come off (yet!), the move for the Ricoh was inspired. A shot-to-nothing while having a load of tools that were effectively worthless.
Shame the emotional stuff and cultural stuff wasn't quite so inspired(!) but tbh if I had the cash to invest and was a cold-blooded ruthless businessman, I'd be looking at that and thinking here's someone who's about as ruthless as they can get!
(Un?)fortunately, I'm just a CCFC fan who has to watch as the game of financial poker plays out.
ccfcway
Well-Known Member
the problem is,if you think the move was inspired, you must also think the CCC - wasps deal was also inspired
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
It's almost like I didn't put a load of caveats in...
Anyway, no I don't really, not from a financial POV anyway. It's based on a lot more conventional ideas than the CCFC attempt. So not inspired more... workmanlike.
But still overly leveraged IMNSHO.