Next 2 Games (7 Viewers)

[CCFC88]

Notts County may be in 3rd. But they have the same amount of points as Wycombe in 4th but have played a game more.

Notts County play Wycombe so can take those 3 points off them, which means it is still essentially in their hands if they win all their games.

 

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[Astute]

Yep. I do still fear Swindon and wouldn't want to meet them in the play-offs.

Yes Swindon score goals. Bit you have to go down to 17th and Yeovil to find a team that have had more goals against. 55 goals against in 37 games.

 

[Astute]

Notts County play Wycombe so can take those 3 points off them, which means it is still essentially in their hands if they win all their games.

Teams below us will go up if they win every game :smug:

 

[CCFC88]

4 of our final 5 will be safe and have "nothing to play for" which should play into our hands if we approach the games professionally.

8 from the next 4 and 13 from the last 5 which see us in the mixer for 3rd. Nick a win away at either Newport or NC and we'll have a great shot.

 

[CCFC88]

Teams below us will go up if they win every game :smug:

Not garunteed though, the original post was about teams who have autos in their own hands, of which there are 4.

 

[clint van damme]

Which is what my point is. And we actually look as though we can score goals now.

I would say we probably won't make automatics, but I don't think it's the impossible task some are making out. But the same applies to 3 or 4 other teams outside the top 3.
Our big advantage is our run in, and as you've pointed out, a lot of them have to play each other.

 

[tigersb]

Notts County may be in 3rd. But they have the same amount of points as Wycombe in 4th but have played a game more.

I know but they still have to play Wycombe so it’s still in therir own hands

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Both Notts County and Newport have only lost 2 games at home this season. Both are going to be really tough games to get a win in.

Looking at our other fixtures, home and away, I’d definitely take a draw v Notts County, and probably a draw at Newport. The optimist in me is hoping Newport’s standards drop now they’re safe from relegation, but too far adrift from playoff contention. We’ve also got to be determined to avenge that loss earlier in the season.

 

[SkyBlueCRJ]

I would say we probably won't make automatics, but I don't think it's the impossible task some are making out. But the same applies to 3 or 4 other teams outside the top 3.
Our big advantage is our run in, and as you've pointed out, a lot of them have to play each other.

You're right in saying it's not an impossible task, but it's certainly a difficult one. In the last 3 seasons 3rd place in League Two has been secured by a tally of 85 points. Given that there's 9 games left and we're on 61 points, that's 8 wins out of 9 to guarantee us an automatic spot. Obviously the potential points average for 3rd place is going to be lower this season as the league has been relatively tight throughout. But even so, it's a big ask for a team who have struggled to consistently dominate a game all season.

Our run in doesn't fill me with confidence either, given that we've struggled against lesser sides time and again this season. The Barnet game last Saturday is a prime example. If the gods weren't in our favour on the day we could've easily lost that game 3-0. With 6 teams out of the 9 games to play in the bottom half of the table, we need to make sure we don't repeat the performances of that saw the likes of FGR do the double over us.

 

[clint van damme]

You're right in saying it's not an impossible task, but it's certainly a difficult one. In the last 3 seasons 3rd place in League Two has been secured by a tally of 85 points. Given that there's 9 games left and we're on 61 points, that's 8 wins out of 9 to guarantee us an automatic spot. Obviously the potential points average for 3rd place is going to be lower this season as the league has been relatively tight throughout. But even so, it's a big ask for a team who have struggled to consistently dominate a game all season.

Our run in doesn't fill me with confidence either, given that we've struggled against lesser sides time and again this season. The Barnet game last Saturday is a prime example. If the gods weren't in our favour on the day we could've easily lost that game 3-0. With 6 teams out of the 9 games to play in the bottom half of the table, we need to make sure we don't repeat the performances of that saw the likes of FGR do the double over us.

you're right about our form against the bottom teams but we've beaten Barnet and now Crewe in successive games and though it can be argued we weren't convincing, particularly against Barnet, it's all about results at this stage.
It is a big task but I've got renewed hope after the last 2 or 3 weeks.

 

[Liquid Gold]

We could do with Port Vale going on a run by the looks of things.

 

[SkyBlueCRJ]

you're right about our form against the bottom teams but we've beaten Barnet and now Crewe in successive games and though it can be argued we weren't convincing, particularly against Barnet, it's all about results at this stage.
It is a big task but I've got renewed hope after the last 2 or 3 weeks.

Well that's the thing, at the end of the day it's the results that matter not the performances so if we churned out 6 poor wins I doubt anyone would lose any sleep over it. You're right we have improved though so fingers crossed we've broken the trend of failing to break down those lesser sides in the league.

 

[Otis]

I would say we probably won't make automatics, but I don't think it's the impossible task some are making out. But the same applies to 3 or 4 other teams outside the top 3.
Our big advantage is our run in, and as you've pointed out, a lot of them have to play each other.

Yeah, but for instance, when Notts County play Wycombe we really can only be happy with a draw there. Notts County win and that's still points we have to catch up and the same if Wycombe win.

Only a draw for them and a win for us is a win win situation and obviously if Wycombe win it heightens our chance of overtaking County, but not of Wycombe and it would be another game gone in order to catch them.

The only way it will work is if both rivals draw and we win, or one wins, but then loses to the next rival, who in turn loses to the next rival etc.

It might look pretty close, but in reality it is not. It needs two things.

1. Fabulous form from us and at least 6 wins out of 9, plus some draws.

2. 3 teams have to falter (haven't put Notts County down because we can obviously overtake them with a game in hand and our playing them too), so Exeter, Mansfield and Wycombe. It's out of our hands with all 3 clubs. If we don't beat Notts County, then it's the same there and it's out of our hands and it will be 4 clubs.

 

[Otis]

We could do with Port Vale going on a run by the looks of things.

Hmm, yeah, but if they win on Tuesday they will probably just about be home and dry and won't need to win the other matches.

If they beat Exeter they will be 10 points clear of the drop and that's surely enough to have them safe.

 

[NortonSkyBlue]

I would say we probably won't make automatics, but I don't think it's the impossible task some are making out. But the same applies to 3 or 4 other teams outside the top 3.
Our big advantage is our run in, and as you've pointed out, a lot of them have to play each other.

we are more likely to miss out on the play offs than we are to go up automatically and I suspect too many chickens are being counted.

 

[Otis]

we are more likely to miss out on the play offs than we are to go up automatically and I suspect too many chickens are being counted.

Ah, but you see, I am quietly confident about the playoffs and not so about the automatics.

We should surely be able to make the top 7 from here.

 

[clint van damme]

we are more likely to miss out on the play offs than we are to go up automatically and I suspect too many chickens are being counted.

I'm not counting any chickens, I've said we will, in all likelihood, miss out on the automatics. But I don't think it's the mammoth task some are saying.

 

[Otis]

I'm not counting any chickens, I've said we will, in all likelihood, miss out on the automatics. But I don't think it's the mammoth task some are saying.

I would say having to win at least 6 games out of 9 is pretty bloody mammoth, especially when 2 of the teams we have to play away have only lost 2 at home each all season.

It might well be 7 wins needed.

If that's not mammoth, then it's certainly a very, very huge elephant.

 

[Otis]

 

[Liquid Gold]

It all depends on our current vein of form. Either we've just had a good run and will shortly return to inconsistent or we've finally hit a really good run and can keep it going to the end of the season.

 

[Otis]

It all depends on our current vein of form. Either we've just had a good run and will shortly return to inconsistent or we've finally hit a really good run and can keep it going to the end of the season.

It's a very good run. 3 wins and 2 draws out of 5.

Replicate that though and it will be a further 11 points from the next 5 games, which will have us on 72 points with 4 games left.

Might well have to win all 4 of them.

It's very good form, but we have to better do better than that current form I would say to make it.

 

[clint van damme]

I would say having to win at least 6 games out of 9 is pretty bloody mammoth, especially when 2 of the teams we have to play away have only lost 2 at home each all season.

It might well be 7 wins needed.

If that's not mammoth, then it's certainly a very, very huge elephant.

if, (big if), Wycombe lose midweek we are 6 points off of second with a game in hand and Notts County to play.

Top two teams finished on 87 and 3rd on 85 last season. Don't see the top 3 hitting those numbers this time round. Certainly not 2nd and 3rd.

 

[Otis]

if, (big if), Wycombe lose midweek we are 6 points off of second with a game in hand and Notts County to play.

Top two teams finished on 87 and 3rd on 85 last season. Don't see the top 3 hitting those numbers this time round. Certainly not 2nd and 3rd.

Which is why I have been more conservative and suggested around 82-83.

Can't see it being lower than 80.

 

[Mild-Mannered Janitor]

Anyone but Swindon in the play offs for me, they would be the toughest even though we beat them twice.

Best just to win the remaining 9 games and give my heart some rest or can someone supply beta blockers at a good rate?

 

[Otis]

Anyone but Swindon in the play offs for me, they would be the toughest even though we beat them twice.

Best just to win the remaining 9 games and give my heart some rest or can someone supply beta blockers at a good rate?

Agree on Swindon. At home here they were very, very good and we only beat them through a freak/scorcher from Biamou and a late McNulty goal when we had our backs to the wall.

Wouldn't fancy facing them again.

 

[sky_blue_up_north]

Forget the auto's and look forward to another Wembley date... we have good record there ;-)

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Yeah, but for instance, when Notts County play Wycombe we really can only be happy with a draw there. Notts County win and that's still points we have to catch up and the same if Wycombe win.

Only a draw for them and a win for us is a win win situation and obviously if Wycombe win it heightens our chance of overtaking County, but not of Wycombe and it would be another game gone in order to catch them.

The only way it will work is if both rivals draw and we win, or one wins, but then loses to the next rival, who in turn loses to the next rival etc.

It might look pretty close, but in reality it is not. It needs two things.

1. Fabulous form from us and at least 6 wins out of 9, plus some draws.

2. 3 teams have to falter (haven't put Notts County down because we can obviously overtake them with a game in hand and our playing them too), so Exeter, Mansfield and Wycombe. It's out of our hands with all 3 clubs. If we don't beat Notts County, then it's the same there and it's out of our hands and it will be 4 clubs.

If I was a betting man, I’d say Wycombe are the favourites for that last automatic spot. They’re level on points with Notts with a game in hand and they play them next week. They can pull away by 6pts very quickly.

For Wycombe v Notts County, the best case is a draw, worst case is a Wycombe win, why? A few reasons; Notts County have 8 games, 4 of those are against the top 6, we have a game in hand on Notts and we play them, so we can feasibly catch 6pts on us. Whereas Wycombe have a similar run-in to us and we’ve played the same amount of games. Wycombe are also showing good form,

Mansfield, Notts County and Exeter just aren’t showing the form required for 15-20pts. Notts County have the most difficult run-in by far, Mansfield have drew their last 4 and are not managed by Evans, who, for all his faults as a person, knows how to get teams promoted. Exeter seem to be imploding at the minute, they need a win tomorrow night to stay in it - even if they win and overtake us, over 9 more games, I favour us.

I’m more worried about Lincoln than Swindon.

Based on current trajectories, and the teams we’ve got left to play, I honestly think 3rd will come down to a dog fight between us and Wycombe. At the minute, the odds favour Wycombe.

 

[clint van damme]

If I was a betting man, I’d say Wycombe are the favourites for that last automatic spot. They’re level on points with Notts with a game in hand and they play them next week. They can pull away by 6pts very quickly.

For Wycombe v Notts County, the best case is a draw, worst case is a Wycombe win, why? A few reasons; Notts County have 8 games, 4 of those are against the top 6, we have a game in hand on Notts and we play them, so we can feasibly catch 6pts on us. Whereas Wycombe have a similar run-in to us and we’ve played the same amount of games. Wycombe are also showing good form,

Mansfield, Notts County and Exeter just aren’t showing the form required for 15-20pts. Notts County have the most difficult run-in by far, Mansfield have drew their last 4 and are not managed by Evans, who, for all his faults as a person, knows how to get teams promoted. Exeter seem to be imploding at the minute, they need a win tomorrow night to stay in it - even if they win and overtake us, over 9 more games, I favour us.

I’m more worried about Lincoln than Swindon.

Based on current trajectories, and the teams we’ve got left to play, I honestly think 3rd will come down to a dog fight between us and Wycombe. At the minute, the odds favour Wycombe.

good analysis but I would add our current form is better than Wycombes. We have 11 points from the last 5, (bettered by Accrington and equalled by Carlisle in the current top 10), they have 7.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

good analysis but I would add our current form is better than Wycombes. We have 11 points from the last 5, (bettered by Accrington and equalled by Carlisle in the current top 10), they have 7.

Exactly, they have a slightly harder run-in, Notts County and Lincoln away, Accrington at home. But, that’s offset by playing the likes of; Yeovil, Grimsby, Chesterfield, Stevenage, Port Vale and Crawley. My optimism is based on the fact we’re playing 4 of those teams Wycombe are, we also have Morecambe and Cheltenham which should be winnable ties. If I believe we can win 6 of those types of games, then Wycombe can too.

To reply to Otis, the only team we really need to rely on slipping up is Wycombe. As I can’t really see Exeter, Mansfield or Notts County getting more than 15pts from from the remaining games. I could be wrong, but either way, we have to put a sequence of wins together to remain in contention.

 

[Otis]

Anyone else feel sorry for Yeovil?

They still have to play ...

City
Accrington
Luton
Mansfield
Wycombe
Lincoln
Notts County
Swindon

They must have seriously pissed off the big man upstairs.

 

[eastwoodsdustman]

It's OK Gents. No need to panic. I've put the scores in the Grimsby Fishy calculator and We finish 3 points clear of the 4th placed team to go up in the auto's. Good news too if you like Chesterfield. They're staying up by finishing above Grimsby and Barnet.

Football League Calculator

 

[Otis]

They have Forest Green and then every single top side.

Wow.

 

[Sky Blue Harry H]

I know but they still have to play Wycombe so it’s still in therir own hands

Surely if we win our game in hand over Notts County and then beat them at their place, we will be 1 point clear of them - so actually we can finish above them, even if they win all of their other games?

 

[Otis]

It's OK Gents. No need to panic. I've put the scores in the Grimsby Fishy calculator and We finish 3 points clear of the 4th placed team to go up in the auto's. Good news too if you like Chesterfield. They're staying up by finishing above Grimsby and Barnet.

Football League Calculator

I have it as:

1. Accrington
2. Luton
3. Wycombe
4. Mansfield
5. CITY
6. Exeter
7. Notts County

Relegated

23.Barnet
24 Chesterfield

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Surely if we win our game in hand over Notts County and then beat them at their place, we will be 1 point clear of them - so actually we can finish above them, even if they win all of their other games?

It'd still be in their hands in that instance though as (and I know this may be surprising) they can beat us too.