The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (100 Viewers)

[Sick Boy]

My claims of a new party? You wouldn't see the truth even if it smacked you in the face.

So us the Guardian now lying?

The party has been registered. It has nothing to do with me. So would you like to explain how it is my party?

Of course not. Just another throw away comment by yourself that you will now ignore.

What are you on about?

Where did I say it was your party?

I said they were your claims, which I happen to agree with,ffs.

I wasn’t the one disagreeing with you, yet you still manage to claim I was

 

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[Sick Boy]

Would you vote remain if you had to vote for someone you didn't like or would you vote leave because you liked the person standing for leave?

We are talking about voting for a Pm, they are completely different.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

I have said countless times before and I say the same now. We won't have left the EU by the end of March. There is a good chance we won't leave at all as most MP's want us to remain in the EU.

It's easy to be right about something when you're quite vague. Article 50 would probably have to extend even had May's deal passed in Parliament because further legislation has to be passed through Parliament and there are so many days to do this before 29th March.

Decent summary:
Brexit: Are we running out of parliamentary time?

 

[CCFCSteve]

The general consensus is a customs union. Let the people tell them they are right, or wrong and we then can move forward. Nothing is going to get through parliament until they are given a mandate for or against a customs union. That’s the singular that has brought brexit to a deadlock. The alternative is parliament doesn’t pass brexit. Either no brexit or hard brexit, in which case the minority has won. How’s that democracy?

I agree about the struggles to get something through Parliament and am all for a compromise. However, most indications suggest a customs union would rule out trade agreements with non EU nations and would also require FOM, both of which are high up on a lot of people’s reasons for voting leave in the first place.

A compromise does need to be reached though

 

[Astute]

We are talking about voting for a Pm, they are completely different.

Why are they different?

You vote for a PM on what they have to offer and how much you trust them to follow through with what they offer. Farage would offer out of the EU as before. But this time we would know that the other MP's are against leaving and will do whatever they can to go against the electorate.

Doesn't it worry you at all? Because it does me.

 

[shmmeee]

But isn't it amazing that those questioning the lead for the Tories are the same ones who champion the polls from YouGov when it says more want to remain in the EU than leave.

YouGov is either right or wrong. Which one is it?

Predicting a GE requires a much finer grained model than for a national vote, so it’s not that simple.

Personally I don’t think the vote split for a referendum has changed much from 2016, but it’s apples and oranges to compare polling with a GE.

 

[Astute]

It's easy to be right about something when you're quite vague. Article 50 would probably have to extend even had May's deal passed in Parliament because further legislation has to be passed through Parliament and there are so many days to do this before 29th March.

Decent summary:
Brexit: Are we running out of parliamentary time?

Would you like to say what I have been vague about?

I said we won't leave the EU by the end of March if the May deal wasn't accepted. I said there was a chance of it going through for this reason. I have also said we will still be tied to the EU in some way if we do leave but I can't see us leaving.

Only an idiot would say they know what is going to happen even at this stage.

 

[shmmeee]

If Corbyn were electable he would be 10 to 20 points ahead in the polls at this stage in the election cycle. I suspect Yvette will be challenging sometime soon, she seems to be positioning herself as the safe and responsible choice.

Having said that Brexit is making any predictions practically impossible to make. Strange times indeed.

As for Boris he is never getting anywhere close to power. My opinion is that the next Tory leader will be someone younger like Raab or Mercer.

Yvette Cooper is terrible. I went into the 2015 leadership election wanting to vote for her and just couldn’t.

Not sure who there is in either party. Boris would be the best choice for the Tories to pick up the UKIP vote, but as you say I doubt he’s grtvit.

 

[Astute]

Predicting a GE requires a much finer grained model than for a national vote, so it’s not that simple.

Personally I don’t think the vote split for a referendum has changed much from 2016, but it’s apples and oranges to compare polling with a GE.

I said they could come second or even first. But they would come at least 3rd. No it wouldn't be simple.

Unless you believe YouGov less than 50% would vote Tory, Labour and leave. More want leave than would vote Tory or Labour.

Try and put that into numbers. It is impossible.

 

[skybluetony176]

I agree about the struggles to get something through Parliament and am all for a compromise. However, most indications suggest a customs union would rule out trade agreements with non EU nations and would also require FOM, both of which are high up on a lot of people’s reasons for voting leave in the first place.

A compromise does need to be reached though

A customs union doesn’t require movement of people all though a common travel area between Ireland and Northern Ireland as part of the customs union would be wholly sensible. I would think that any customs union would be based on commodity codes. Depending on how many commodity codes are included as to how comprehensive the union would be. In short there’s room for trade deals outside of the union. If general consensus had have been followed from the start the last two + years would have been spent on defining the customs union instead of defining a brexit deal based on May’s red lines that will never get through parliament. The past two + years have been a lesson on how not to deliver democracy. Because she failed at the first hurdle, that’s why we can’t finish the race.

 

[CCFCSteve]

A customs union doesn’t require movement of people all though a common travel area between Ireland and Northern Ireland as part of the customs union would be wholly sensible. I would think that any customs union would be based on commodity codes. Depending on how many commodity codes are included as to how comprehensive the union would be. In short there’s room for trade deals outside of the union. If general consensus had have been followed from the start the last two + years would have been spent on defining the customs union instead of defining a brexit deal based on May’s red lines that will never get through parliament. The past two + years have been a lesson on how not to deliver democracy. Because she failed at the first hurdle, that’s why we can’t finish the race.

Sensible suggestion, however, from my understanding the EU wouldn’t allow a CU without FOM. Also any trade agreements would be extremely limited (if possible at all)

 

[skybluetony176]

Sensible suggestion, however, from my understanding the EU wouldn’t allow a CU without FOM. Also any trade agreements would be extremely limited (if possible at all)

It already does. Turkey. There’s a precedent already set.

 

[Astute]

We are talking about voting for a Pm, they are completely different.

You are remain whatever. You would vote for whoever would promise you that we would remain.

There are millions of people that are leave whatever. How many would vote for someone who would promise that they would do their best to make sure we leave?

These votes would reduce Tory and Labour votes. Other than May all governments since 2001 have got just over 1/3 of the vote. None of them reached 37%. A scary thought. I would prefer BoJo than Farage and that is saying something.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Safe seats?

Nearly 54% of England voted leave. How many of these feel let down by the system? How many are as desperate to leave the EU as some of you are to remain in it? The lies in here show how bad some are. Leavers are just the same.

But it is different now.

They got the result they wanted. Yet the MP's have gone against what was voted for. Why would they vote for an MP that has already gone against what was voted for?

So let's say 10% for smaller parties including Lib Dems. 90% left. About half Tory half Labour. But how many would still vote for Labour or the Tories after what has just happened?

We won't know unless or until it happens. Just look on here. All logic has gone out the window. It seems you have to be for or against. No middle ground seems to be allowed. If leave voters saw it the same way millions of votes would be lost by both Labour and the Tories.

A scary thought.

Definition of a safe seat: 'a parliamentary seat that is likely to be retained with a large majority in an election'. In our system, you only have to get the most votes in a seat to win it, which is heavily skewed in the established parties favour. Like I mentioned earlier, UKIP got 12.6% of the vote in 2015 and won 1 seat, meanwhile, the Lib Dems got 8 seats from 7.9% of the vote.

Given that UKIP is only polling at 6% at this moment, there's no indication a 'Brexit Party' would poll any higher and could, in fact, split that 6%. Also, a new 'Brexit Party' would be a single-issue party, and won't have a plan for Government and frankly, wouldn't attract voters from their traditional party allegiances for the large part. Will there be protest votes? Probably. It's not even necessary right now because right now, as things stand, both Labour and Conservatives will stand on manifestos supporting Brexit. The European Elections is totally different, it's proportional representation, so you get the same % of seats and you do votes, which encourages people to vote for minor parties. I imagine a lot of people would be very annoyed with having to vote in a European Election in the process of Brexit, so a Brexit Party could have success there, but not in Westminster elections.

 

[CCFCSteve]

It already does. Turkey. There’s a precedent already set.

Point accepted but it doesn’t necessarily follow that a suitable CU would be available to us. As I say, my understanding that if we entered into a CU with the EU, there would be expectations on FOM, cash in the pot and it would be extremely difficult to reach trade agreements with non EU countries

I do agree though that some kind of CU appears to be required to get it through Parliament. I personally would not have this as our immediate priority/aim now but a fall back if an acceptable trade agreement can’t be reached during a transition period.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Euro elections always have a low vote - why is that do you think?

In short, voters don't find the process of Euro Elections to be rewarding enough. Turnout is generally low for most votes, local elections, regional assembly elections (where relevant) and even most referendums. The Scottish Independence and EU referendums being the obvious exceptions to the rule. Voter turnout in national elections has also generally been on the drop since the 1970s in most Western European democracies.

 

[skybluetony176]

Point accepted but it doesn’t necessarily follow that a suitable CU would be available to us. As I say, my understanding that if we entered into a CU with the EU, there would be expectations on FOM, cash in the pot and it would be extremely difficult to reach trade agreements with non EU countries

I do agree though that some kind of CU appears to be required to get it through Parliament. I personally would not have this as our immediate priority now but a fall back if an acceptable trade agreement can’t be reached during a transition period.

Andora, San Marino and Monaco also have custom unions with the EU, so do many overseas territories of EU members. The Isle of Man for example. Residents of the Isle of Man although can travel to the EU freely but have no right to work there. So I guess it depends on your interpretation of FOM also. There’s absolutely nothing to suggest that a customs union has to mean FOM in the literal sense that the brexit campaign opposes.

 

[Astute]

It's not even necessary right now because right now, as things stand, both Labour and Conservatives will stand on manifestos supporting Brexit.

Are you being serious?

We know most MP's want to remain. That means parties want to remain. Nobody would fall for this. And they wouldn't want to lose the remain vote.

My MP abstained from the vote. He is independent. I have voted for him since I moved here. It is easy to see how your local MP voted especially when they are very vocal on the matter. The Tories have the best chance of coming out well from this. A leader who wanted remain but tried following the vote of the country.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Agreed. But this referendum crap has brought out the worse in some. Just look at this thread. Some people refuse to look further than their nose. This so called Brexit party would get a lot of people voting for them for this reason. Not only that but millions have lost all their faith in our system. Yet some will still refuse to take it seriously.

We both agreed this could happen just like a few others did. Now the shitstorm is about to get worse. Now the May deal is looking like a slightly better deal although it still shouldn't be accepted.

Ok so I’ve been thinking about it. I think snp will wipe out everyone in Scotland and win every seat.

Labour could make a play for a pact but won’t.

Probably Farage will start uksp - uk sovereignty party and take Tory and labour votes and some of the millions who’ve never voted before much like Corbyn did and probably will again

Lib Dems will be the only English party campaigning on Eu remain and will win some votes but not many more seats

So my guess would be

Con 35%
Lab 32%
Uksp - 20%
Lib dems - 10%

House will be something like

Con - 270
Lab - 235
Snp - 70ish
Lib Dem - 25ish
Uksp - 5 - 10
Pc duo Sinn Fein the rest

Con won’t get minority gov off the ground and lab / snp pact not enough so may be re run

Think proportional representation may return

We need to learn a new system of politics I reckon

Interesting times

 

[Astute]

Ok so I’ve been thinking about it. I think snp will wipe out everyone in Scotland and win every seat.

Labour could make a play for a pact but won’t.

Probably Farage will start uksp - uk sovereignty party and take Tory and labour votes and some of the millions who’ve never voted before much like Corbyn did and probably will again

Lib Dems will be the only English party campaigning on Eu remain and will win some votes but not many more seats

So my guess would be

Con 35%
Lab 32%
Uksp - 20%
Lib dems - 10%

House will be something like

Con - 270
Lab - 235
Snp - 70ish
Lib Dem - 25ish
Uksp - 5 - 10
Pc duo Sinn Fein the rest

Con won’t get minority gov off the ground and lab / snp pact not enough so may be re run

Think proportional representation may return

We need to learn a new system of politics I reckon

Interesting times

This poll was commissioned by pro EU group. And it was before this new party was announced

Voters less likely to back Labour with 'stop Brexit' policy, leaked poll suggests

I.wonder if this will change things.

 

[martcov]

Go take your head for a shake.

So it is OK for.one as he hasn't been convicted of anything but it isn't OK for another one bevause he hasn't been convicted of anything?

I wonder which side of Brexit you favour that it is OK because nothing has been proven......

A joke... see Grendel‘s post about Fox

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Are you being serious?

We know most MP's want to remain. That means parties want to remain. Nobody would fall for this. And they wouldn't want to lose the remain vote.

My MP abstained from the vote. He is independent. I have voted for him since I moved here. It is easy to see how your local MP voted especially when they are very vocal on the matter. The Tories have the best chance of coming out well from this. A leader who wanted remain but tried following the vote of the country.

Is that John Woodcock by any chance for Barrow and Furness? I've worked a door in Barrow -- I went to Lancaster University so have lived in the North West.

Brexiteer MPs from the Conservatives who weren't on the ministerial payroll (and therefore, have to vote with the Government because of 'collective responsibility') generally voted against the deal. One of the issues regarding Brexit is that, whilst we voted to 'Leave', but what does that actually entail? Hence, you have Brexiteers arguing May's deal 'isn't really Brexit' and you have Labour arguing it doesn't pass their tests and want closer economic ties to Europe. Voters widely reject May's deal, even amongst people who voted to Leave, and for that reason, there's no consensus regarding Brexit. This fundamental argument over what Brexit actually means is why I think we'll end up with a second referendum because if there's no parliamentary majority, nothing can be put into the law. There's a reason constitutional experts such as Vernon Bogdanor reckons a referendum is the only way to break the deadlock.

Right now, Labour is taking a bit of stick because of their policy on Brexit but it's difficult for an opposition to have a specific policy on something like Brexit because it isn't involved in negotiations. It's Brexit policy, whilst being totally flawed in 2017, was actually the perfect strategy at the time. Unless there's an election, Labour's policy on Brexit will be quite vague. That said, it has set out its 6 tests, their desire to remain in the Customs Union (the Tories will almost certainly not go for this) and that's pretty clear at this point.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

This poll was commissioned by pro EU group. And it was before this new party was announced

Voters less likely to back Labour with 'stop Brexit' policy, leaked poll suggests

I.wonder if this will change things.

We may be in uncharted waters. You are right no one knows what would happen and it’s way too big a risk for the Tory party

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Ok so I’ve been thinking about it. I think snp will wipe out everyone in Scotland and win every seat.

Labour could make a play for a pact but won’t.

Probably Farage will start uksp - uk sovereignty party and take Tory and labour votes and some of the millions who’ve never voted before much like Corbyn did and probably will again

Lib Dems will be the only English party campaigning on Eu remain and will win some votes but not many more seats

So my guess would be

Con 35%
Lab 32%
Uksp - 20%
Lib dems - 10%

House will be something like

Con - 270
Lab - 235
Snp - 70ish
Lib Dem - 25ish
Uksp - 5 - 10
Pc duo Sinn Fein the rest

Con won’t get minority gov off the ground and lab / snp pact not enough so may be re run

Think proportional representation may return

We need to learn a new system of politics I reckon

Interesting times

Is that a joke? SNP to get '70ish seats' when there are only 59 seats in Scotland...

The Lib Dems won't get 25 seats either and UKIP/Brexit Party won't get 5-10 seats. We don't have proportional representation!

 

[Sick Boy]

You are remain whatever. You would vote for whoever would promise you that we would remain.

There are millions of people that are leave whatever. How many would vote for someone who would promise that they would do their best to make sure we leave?

These votes would reduce Tory and Labour votes. Other than May all governments since 2001 have got just over 1/3 of the vote. None of them reached 37%. A scary thought. I would prefer BoJo than Farage and that is saying something.

Back in reality I’ve actually said multiple times that I think the country should stay in the EEA as a compromise between the two sides, so no, I’m not “remain whatever”.

I also don’t recall voting for the Lib Dems either.

Why let facts get in the way of you contrusting a narrative based on your ‘facts’

 

[dutchman]

Most Britons oppose second EU referendum, Sky Data poll reveals

Most Britons do not want a second EU referendum amid the Brexit crisis facing the country, a Sky Data poll has revealed.

Some 56% said they were opposed to another public vote on whether the UK should leave the European Union, compared to 44% who support the proposal.

 

[Sick Boy]

Most Britons oppose second EU referendum, Sky Data poll reveals

Most Britons do not want a second EU referendum amid the Brexit crisis facing the country, a Sky Data poll has revealed.

Some 56% said they were opposed to another public vote on whether the UK should leave the European Union, compared to 44% who support the proposal.

Based on just over 1000 people?

 

[skybluetony176]

Based on just over 1000 people?

From Sunderland

 

[martcov]

Euro elections always have a low vote - why is that do you think?

Because they aren’t the ones governing the country in any major sense. No one was interested in their bendy bananas or trade regulations until they were told to be.

 

[Astute]

Is that John Woodcock by any chance for Barrow and Furness? I've worked a door in Barrow -- I went to Lancaster University so have lived in the North West.

Brexiteer MPs from the Conservatives who weren't on the ministerial payroll (and therefore, have to vote with the Government because of 'collective responsibility') generally voted against the deal. One of the issues regarding Brexit is that, whilst we voted to 'Leave', but what does that actually entail? Hence, you have Brexiteers arguing May's deal 'isn't really Brexit' and you have Labour arguing it doesn't pass their tests and want closer economic ties to Europe. Voters widely reject May's deal, even amongst people who voted to Leave, and for that reason, there's no consensus regarding Brexit. This fundamental argument over what Brexit actually means is why I think we'll end up with a second referendum because if there's no parliamentary majority, nothing can be put into the law. There's a reason constitutional experts such as Vernon Bogdanor reckons a referendum is the only way to break the deadlock.

Right now, Labour is taking a bit of stick because of their policy on Brexit but it's difficult for an opposition to have a specific policy on something like Brexit because it isn't involved in negotiations. It's Brexit policy, whilst being totally flawed in 2017, was actually the perfect strategy at the time. Unless there's an election, Labour's policy on Brexit will be quite vague. That said, it has set out its 6 tests, their desire to remain in the Customs Union (the Tories will almost certainly not go for this) and that's pretty clear at this point.

Yes it is Woodcock. One of the rare good MP's who cares about the people of his constituency.

Labour could have a policy that is known at least. This isn't hard to do. We are left guessing what the leader wants although we think we know. But he says he wants the opposite if what we think as he has always wanted out of the EU.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Is that a joke? SNP to get '70ish seats' when there are only 59 seats in Scotland...

The Lib Dems won't get 25 seats either and UKIP/Brexit Party won't get 5-10 seats. We don't have proportional representation!

I was gonna check but couldn’t be arsed. They’ll wipeout every other party in Scotland

 

[shmmeee]

I said they could come second or even first. But they would come at least 3rd. No it wouldn't be simple.

Unless you believe YouGov less than 50% would vote Tory, Labour and leave. More want leave than would vote Tory or Labour.

Try and put that into numbers. It is impossible.

It’s not impossible. Farage won’t win a GE, thinking you can go from 0 to 35% in a year is a fever dream. Absolutely impossible. And most Brexiters aren’t as dogmatic as you are. And likely wouldn’t even vote in a GE. If not, why has UKIPs vote collapsed?

 

[shmmeee]

Based on just over 1000 people?

Assuming the sample is representative that gives about a 95% confidence for the UK population, more than enough.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Yes it is Woodcock. One of the rare good MP's who cares about the people of his constituency.

Labour could have a policy that is known at least. This isn't hard to do. We are left guessing what the leader wants although we think we know. But he says he wants the opposite if what we think as he has always wanted out of the EU.

He'll probably be unseated in another election. His current situation can't exactly help him.

How can their position be clearer? Honestly, I am curious.

They set out the following process: assess the Govt deal alongside its criteria (Customs Union being key to that), if the govt failed to pass it, call for an election, and if there are no alternatives, call for a 2nd Ref.

Don't get me wrong, it is pretty complicated, but the policy framework, to me, seems pretty clear.

 

[Astute]

Back in reality I’ve actually said multiple times that I think the country should stay in the EEA as a compromise between the two sides, so no, I’m not “remain whatever”.

I also don’t recall voting for the Lib Dems either.

Why let facts get in the way of you contrusting a narrative based on your ‘facts’

1, Your.posts are all about remaining in the EU whatever and having a go at anyone who doesn't do the same.e.

2, who said you voted for Lib Dems? So what are you making up this time?

My facts? It isn't me that constantly makes things up. You need a mirror to see who that is.